Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carlstadt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:50PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:30 PM EDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:07AMMoonset 9:20PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 817 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am edt Friday...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less late this evening and overnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Chance of showers at night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 817 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of weak fronts cross the region Friday through Sunday. A cold front passes across the region Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carlstadt , NJ
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location: 40.81, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 280016
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
816 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A series of weak fronts cross the region Friday through Sunday.

A more significant cold front will pass through from the west
Monday night, followed by weak high pressure into Wednesday.

Another weak frontal system may begin to approach on Thursday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Very moist south southeast flow with concerns for fog ahead of
the front. Latest hrrr run brings some showers in around 08z
with activity currently along the va/wv border. Pure advection
of this suggests slightly earlier, but regardless it would be
well after midnight.

Continued the 30 pop with elevated instability enough to
include TS chance. Main unknown is how low the vsby will go.

Appears more like a low stratus event based on the profile's
modified richardson's number. But as with advection fog, this
may not work out. For now, will continue to monitor trends.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/
The cold front washes out across the region Friday. The more sw
flow continues as the airmass will continue to get warmer.

Ridging aloft occurs. Fog burns off in the morning. More Sun is
expected. Highs Friday in the upper 60s out east where rain
showers and low clouds could linger to lower 80s for western
locations where there will be more sun. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms early but drier conditions move in the afternoon
with more of a westerly component to wind.

Next system approaches Friday night from the nw. Ridging will
make it more difficult for thunder. Showers chances increase
late at night into early Saturday. Lows in the low 50s to low
60s Friday night.

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/
Forecast for this time frame remains rather consistent. First, a
weakening front nearby and a passing mid level shortwave may
generate some showers and possibly an elevated TSTM mainly inland
sat morning. Then bermuda type high pressure setting up over the
western atlantic will set up a favorable flow for warm temperatures
on sat, even across coastal areas, as winds shift to the southwest
and then west. Have continued to trend warmer, with some places in
ne nj reaching the upper 80s, on the higher end of guidance. If the
slightly warmer NAM were to verify, with full mixing to 850 mb and
late day downslope flow, newark could make a run at the first 90-
degree reading of the year. Many places away from south facing
shorelines should get into at least the lower 80s, with 70s along
the coastlines and in the hither elevations inland. Capping
inversion will keep afternoon precip at bay.

A back door cold front dropping from the north should come through
at night, with some showers and possibly an elevated tstm, as low
levels stabilize but mid and upper levels remain marginally unstable.

It will be noticeably cooler for Sunday with near average temps in
the 60s.

Not much change for the long term with a warm front approaching
Sunday night and lifting through on Monday, accompanied by showers
and possibly an elevated tstm. Temps on Mon will be above average,
with upper 60s across long island and most of southern ct, and 70s
from nyc north/west. Some showers could come in late day ahead of an
approaching cold front, but the main push should come at night, with
only slight chance for a TSTM as instability looks rather marginal.

Any remaining showers out east on Tue should end by late morning,
with fair wx and temps once again slightly above average for both
tue and Wed as weak high pressure slides south, with upper 60s and
lower 70s. Increasing clouds on Wed ahead of the next weak frontal
system should limit high temps on Thu to the lower and mid 60s.

Aviation /23z Thursday through Tuesday/
A weakening cold front approaches from the west through tonight and
moves into the nyc area around 12z Friday. The front moves slowly
east of the nyc terminals and dissipates Friday morning. High
pressure over the western atlantic builds toward the southeast coast
Friday morning.

Conds quickly dropping to ifr/lifr this eve and should remain
through the night. An isolated thunderstorm is possible late
tonight from the nyc terminals and west. Winds shifting from se
to SW between 07z and 10z could improve conds slightly... But
should still remain ifr until 12z. Conditions then gradually
improve w-e although exact timing of the cold front and
dissipation remains uncertain.

E-se winds becoming light and variable this eve and overnight.

Winds shift to west with the passage of the cold front then come
back around to southwest as the front dissipates. Sea breezes
are likely Friday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 8 mi43 min 55°F 51°F1012.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 11 mi43 min ESE 8.9 G 11 55°F 1012.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 13 mi43 min 1012.2 hPa
MHRN6 13 mi43 min E 6 G 8
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi43 min S 8.9 G 12 57°F 52°F1012.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 24 mi43 min ESE 5.1 G 6 53°F 52°F1011.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi101 min SSE 12 G 14 52°F 50°F4 ft1011.8 hPa (-0.4)52°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ3 mi40 minSE 61.75 miFog/Mist60°F59°F96%1012 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY5 mi40 minVar 53.00 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1012.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ9 mi40 minESE 41.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist56°F55°F97%1012.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi40 minSSE 72.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F93%1012.6 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ13 mi38 minESE 32.50 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1012.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY18 mi40 minSE 60.75 miFog/Mist56°F55°F100%1013 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ19 mi36 minE 51.50 miFog/Mist59°F57°F94%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5SE55SE5SE10
G14
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G22
SE11SE12SE8SE8SE9SE5SE6
1 day agoE8
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NE8
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NE7N7N7N7N7N7N6N6N8NE9
G14
4N4NW6NW5CalmE4CalmCalmE4CalmCalm
2 days agoE4E6E7E4NE7NE6NE8NE8
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek entrance, Garretts Reach, Hackensack River, New Jersey
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Mill Creek entrance
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Thu -- 04:49 AM EDT     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:38 AM EDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:50 PM EDT     7.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
64.12.10.5-0.7-1-0.124.15.66.56.65.94.42.50.8-0.4-0.9-0.11.94.46.37.37.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:35 AM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:55 PM EDT     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.21.32.42.31.50.6-0.3-1.1-1.6-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.312.42.61.90.9-0.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.