Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carlstadt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday August 19, 2017 7:00 AM EDT (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:38AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 604 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 604 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will push east of long island this morning, with another cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will follow Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will pass across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by high pressure.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carlstadt , NJ
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location: 40.81, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190757 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
357 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will push east of long island this morning, with
another cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will follow
Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will pass across the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by high pressure.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Shortwave trough over the great lakes this morning will pivot
towards the region late today.

At the surface, the cold front responsible for the heavy
showers and thunderstorms yesterday will push just east early
this morning. Morning fog stratus and lingering eastern showers
will dissipate with its passage through the early morning.

In its wake, a weak surface trough will linger over the region
today, with a cold front approaching from the west for tonight.

A much drier airmass in the mid-levels, and noticeably drier
airmass at the low-levels (upper 60s lower 70s dewpoints today
versus mid upper 70s of yesterday) will advect mix down today.

With shortwave energy still well west and mid- level warming,
forcing and instability will be limited today. Would mainly
expect some diurnal CU along and north of afternoon surface sea
breeze. The mostly sunny conditions and warm temps aloft will
allow temps to quickly rise well into the 80s today, around 90
nyc nj metro. Heat indices will run close to air temperatures.

Residual southerly swells of 4 to 5 ft @ 6-7 sec period this
morning favor a moderate risk of rip currents for nyc and W li
beaches, with a high risk for E LI beaches. Swells will slowly
subside later this afternoon into the evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
Vigorous shortwave trough approaches this evening and crosses the
region tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front crosses the region
this evening. High-res models indicating some organized convection
developing tracking across central pa ny late this afternoon along
this front, but expectation is that this activity quickly weakens as
it approaches and crosses into the NW hills this evening due to lack
of instability. Elsewhere, a low chance for an isolated shower
overnight with shortwave frontal passage.

Zonal upper flow ensues for Sun into mon. At the surface... High
pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Sunday night, and then
gradually translates to the south and southeast Sunday night. The
result will be a sunny, comfortably dry, and seasonably warm day on
Sunday.

As the high sinks south and east, heat and humidity will build
build into the region Monday into Tuesday. Highs will generally be
well into the 80s to lower 90s on Monday, and possibly lower to mid
90s for Tuesday.

Models are indicating potential for isolated diurnal convection on
Tuesday as instability increases and convectively induced vort
energy rotates around the upper ridge. Low predictability at this
point.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
Decent model agreement with shortwave energy digging into the
great lakes Tue into Tue night and then towards the NE us on
wed. An associated frontal system will bring the next chance for
organized shower and TSTM activity late Tue into wed.

A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week. The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
A cold front will move east of the region this morning and then
another cold front will move across tonight. This will be
followed by high pressure.

MVFR to locally ifr conditions with fog and stratus are
expected for all terminals before 10z and then after that time,
just for some interior and eastern terminals.VFR expected to
return for all terminals after 13z and continue through the rest
of the TAF period.

Timing of categorical changes could be off by 1-3 hours.

Winds are light under 10 kt with a general w-nw flow into
early today and then will be near 10 kt as winds back to a more
south to southwest direction with sea breeze development
this afternoon. Winds subside again tonight, becoming variable
in direction but overall exhibiting a west to southwest flow for
city and coastal terminals.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Late tonight-Monday night Vfr.

Tuesday-Tuesday night A chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower conditions possible,otherwiseVFR. SW gusts
to 15-20 kt late afternoon and at night.

Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible. SW gusts 15-20 kt.

Marine
Southerly swells of 5 to 6 ft will gradually subside from west
to east this morning, with sub-sca conditions then expected
through Tuesday afternoon as high pressure traverses southeast
through the waters.

Winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold frontal passage late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas on the ocean may builds to SCA levels
Tuesday night and continue in southerly swells into Wed ngt.

Winds and seas thereafter are expected to fall below SCA levels for
late week.

Hydrology
Dry conditions through Monday.

Impacts from potential showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday are uncertain at this point.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk through this evening for nyz080-081.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz355.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for anz350-
353.

Synopsis... Nv
near term... Nv
short term... Nv
long term... Jmc nv
aviation... Jm
marine... Nv
hydrology... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 8 mi42 min 74°F 75°F1009.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 11 mi42 min WNW 6 G 8 1010.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 13 mi42 min 74°F 75°F1009.8 hPa
MHRN6 13 mi42 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi42 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 74°F1009.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 24 mi42 min W 8.9 G 11 75°F 76°F1009.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi70 min W 12 G 14 75°F 76°F4 ft1008.9 hPa (+1.0)73°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ3 mi69 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist71°F70°F96%1009.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY5 mi69 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist74°F72°F94%1009.4 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ9 mi69 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F72°F94%1009.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi69 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1009.2 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ13 mi67 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1010.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY18 mi69 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F73°F100%1009.8 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ19 mi85 minN 00.25 miFog70°F68°F94%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmS3S4S3SW6S9S10S9S8S7S4SW16SW6S6SW6S4SW3W4SW4CalmSW4CalmCalm
1 day agoN6NE44CalmCalm4S8S9S9S8S8S9S7S5S3S4S4S4S7S7S8S5S6S6
2 days agoNW8NW7N7N8NW10N8
G15
NE8N11NW6
G14
NW8N9N5N4NW4CalmNW3N5N3N3CalmN3CalmN3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek entrance, Garretts Reach, Hackensack River, New Jersey
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Mill Creek entrance
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Sat -- 01:50 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM EDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     7.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.3-0.10.72.23.855.86.15.54.22.71.40.3-0.10.62.34.25.86.87.26.95.84.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:41 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:23 PM EDT     2.03 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:13 PM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-0.11.21.81.61.10.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-1-0.3121.91.30.80.1-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.