Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carlstadt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:04PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:32 AM EDT (11:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 721 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers in the morning, then showers and chance of tstms in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 721 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong high pressure continues to pull away from the mainland today. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west tonight, slowly crossing the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carlstadt , NJ
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location: 40.81, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230847
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
447 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
Strong high pressure continues to pull away from the mainland
today. A slow moving frontal system approaches Monday night,
impacting the region Tuesday into Wednesday with strong winds
gusts and potentially heavy rain. This frontal system slowly
moves east Wednesday. Higher pressure builds in for late
Wednesday into Thursday, then moves offshore Friday and
Saturday. A cold front impacts the region Saturday night and
Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Fog stratus has developed across the area early this morning due
to increasing low level moisture, light to calm sfc winds and
mostly clear skies. Fog is mainly confined to areas east of nyc
and southern ct and is locally dense at times. Have issued an
sps to account for this. Vsbys have been fluctuating up and
down, so no dense fog advsy yet, but could be issued in the next
hour or two if 1 4 mile vsbys become more widespread.

Fog will burn off by mid morning, although expect partly to
mostly cloudy skies with stratocu development. Dry weather is
expected through the day with limited atmospheric moisture.

Highs remain above normal levels topping out in the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
Nwp guidance is in good agreement through Tue night. As strong
high pres over the western atlantic continues to depart, vigorous
pac shortwave jet energy over the central us this evening will
continue to the gulf coast by Tuesday night. The resultant
-3 to -4 standard deviation deep eastern us longwave trough will
then tilt towards the NE us for midweek. With a full latitude
trough developing across the eastern us.

The associated frontal system will approach the region tonight,
and then track very slowly across the region Tue tue night in
the longitudinally oriented steering flow. Trend with this
system has been slower based on the upper pattern and dprog dt.

Low level moisture does begin to increase tonight, although with
dry midlevels only expect dz. QPF fields for tonight appear
overdone with this. Moisture and forcing increases Tue as the
frontal system approaches, presenting the following potential
hazards Tue tue night:
heavy rain: the slow movement of the front, deep lift (potentially
right rear of 150+ kt jet streak), weak instability, and
interaction with an increasingly moist and tropical airmass (+3
to 4 std) signal potential for multiple bands of heavy rain as
weak waves lift north along the front. Lower resolution
ensembles continue to range between 1 1 2 to 3 inches of rain.

Higher res NAM is indicating the potential for a localized swath
of 3-5 inches. This looks to be a credible threat based on
synoptic pattern, but location timing is very much uncertain
based on front and frontal wave timing and location. Would also
like to see additional support of this in other hi-res models.

See hydrology section for associated flooding threat.

Strong winds: the other potential hazard is for strong winds during
the Tue into Tue night period as a 50-60 kt 950 hpa LLJ moves
overhead Tue afternoon into Tue night. Nam GFS bufkit soundings
indicating a 12-15 hr period of southerly winds gusts of 30 to
40 mph, with potential for any low topped convective line s
ahead of the cold front being able to drag down localized 45-55
mph wind gusts to the surface. SPC has placed western portions
of the area in a slight risk with damaging wind gusts the main
threat, although a isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
A full latitude longwave northern stream trough will become slightly
negative during Wednesday and then weaken and lift to the northeast
Wednesday night into Thursday. Meanwhile a surface cold front will
be crossing the region early Wednesday with a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms expected to be ongoing. At the beginning of
Wednesday this line is expected to be in the vicinity of central
connecticut and into western long island. With surface based
instability and strong winds aloft of 30 to 45 kt, some stronger
winds in the heavier showers and thunderstorms will mix to the
surface and will continue with the enhanced wording of heavy rain
and gusty winds.

An impulse moving into the negatively tilted trough Wednesday night
may bring a few sprinkles. Will leave probabilities below slight
chance as forcing becomes much more limited behind the cold front.

The trough axis moves across Thursday and well northeast of the
region Thursday night. The front moves slowly farther east of the
region Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure then moves in on
Friday and quickly GOES offshore, shifting eastward heading into the
start of next weekend before another frontal system approaches for
next Sunday.

Weak ridging builds aloft late Wednesday night into Thursday night
before weakening as the next northern stream trough digs into the
central united states and becomes fully amplified. This trough moves
slowly to the east Friday night into the upcoming weekend. Forcing
with the cold front will be much weaken than with the early week
system, however, there will still be a chance of precipitation
Saturday night into Monday.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
High pressure moves east of the area today. A slow moving cold front
approaches tonight.

Patchy fog and stratus has developed mainly outside of the nyc
terminals. Some of the CIGS vsbys have fallen to lifr or less. Fog
and low stratus gradually improve this morning, mainly between 12-
14z. Then, during the mid-late morning and afternoon hours,
generallyVFR conditions are anticipated, but patchy MVFR ceilings
are possible. Patchy drizzle may be possible this evening, then
showers become more widespread from west to east after 06z with
MVFR ifr cigs.

Light SE winds tonight remain SE and increase Monday. Speeds of
5 to 10 kt after 13-14z increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the
afternoon. A late day gust or two to 20 kt is possible,
especially near the coast (nyc and LI terminals). Wind increase
and gust Monday night to around 20kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 8 mi44 min 64°F 66°F1026.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 11 mi44 min ESE 6 G 7 64°F 1026.6 hPa
MHRN6 13 mi44 min E 1.9 G 6
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 13 mi44 min 63°F 65°F1025.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi44 min E 1 G 2.9 61°F 65°F1027.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 18 mi47 min E 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 62°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 24 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 7 63°F 63°F1026.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi47 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 62°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi42 min SSE 9.7 G 12 65°F 64°F2 ft1025.5 hPa (-0.3)64°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ3 mi41 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F55°F86%1025.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY5 mi41 minVar 410.00 miOvercast64°F61°F90%1026.1 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ9 mi41 minENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F62°F93%1026.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi41 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F61°F93%1026.1 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ13 mi39 minN 010.00 miOvercast57°F55°F93%1027.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY18 mi41 minE 69.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F59°F100%1026.5 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ19 mi47 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F53°F94%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S9S10S9SE7SE5SE7S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW3NW4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmCalmS33S5W5SW6S7SW54SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW6NW9NW12
G20
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NW8N10NW14
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NW7NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek entrance, Garretts Reach, Hackensack River, New Jersey
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Mill Creek entrance
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Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     6.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.55.24.32.91.710.612.345.25.96.265.33.92.41.40.70.61.42.844.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:44 AM EDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.20.81.81.91.20.6-0-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.60.31.41.91.40.70.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.