Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:41PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:34 PM EDT (03:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 931 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 931 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday and passes through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quogue, NY
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location: 40.82, -72.56     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220137
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
937 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches
from the west Tuesday and passes through Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in behind the cold
frontal passage on Wednesday and remains in control through the
end of the week with a much drier and cooler airmass.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Convection entering NW nj has weakened considerably over the
last hour, so will just run with a slight chance for a shower
through around midnight across the NW interior. Other scattered
convection exists further south across SE pa and this will have
no impact on our region. There is a new shower developing
across NE pa, so will have to watch for any new development
overnight as a mid- level shortwave moves in, but at this time
will continue with a dry forecast after midnight.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue moving offshore. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and it will
be muggy with dewpoints around 70.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The shortwave should still be over the tri state area during the
morning, so cannot completely rule out a shower storm during this
time. In the afternoon, subsidence behind the shortwave will work
against convective development. A surface trough over the interior
could still provide a focus for convergence. Will go with a slight
chance to chance for showers and storms, with the higher chances
over the interior. Some thunderstorms may be strong to marginally
severe with bulk shear of about 30 kt and sufficient CAPE values
forecast.

850mb temps are forecast to be around 18-19c which should translate
to high temperatures in the low-mid 90s for the typically warmest
spots across the city, NE nj and adjacent areas given the expected
cloud cover and wind flow. With winds at a southerly component and
850mb dewpoint temps forecast at mostly 14-17c, chances of mixing
out and having surface dewpoints drop more than a degree or two in
the afternoon are slim. Heat index values are therefore expected to
range in the 90s to around 100. With Wednesday's heat index values
expected to fall short of all advisory criteria, will issue a heat
advisory for the 1-day heat index criteria of 100. Will go with the
advisory over the city, southern westchester county and parts of ne
nj.

A cold front moves into the region Tuesday night with better chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area. CAPE will drop due to
the loss of daytime heating but lift and shear increase ahead of the
front. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
once again. The steering flow should be quick enough to mitigate
chances of flash flooding, but with high moisture content around,
minor nuisance urbanized flooding is possible.

There is a high risk of rip currents at all atlantic ocean
beaches on Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The cold front will slowly push east of the area on Wednesday with
lingering showers and perhaps a few embedded tstms mainly across the
eastern half of long island and southern ct. Skies clear Wed evening
with a much cooler airmass arriving.

Canadian high pressure builds into the region Thursday through early
next week, providing dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will
remain below normal as highs only reach the 70s to near 80 each day.

There could be some isold showers tstms on Sunday as an upper trough
moves through the northeast. Most model guidance has the upper level
energy passing to the north of the CWA so have not included in the
current forecast, however this may change in subsequent
forecasts.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period. An isolated shower or tstm
is possible early tonight from the nyc metros north west.

Bigger forecast problem centers around late night reductions in
cigs vsby. Think kisp kgon kswf most likely to see reductions
to at least MVFR, but cannot totally rule it out at the the nyc
metros some time between 09z-12z give or take an hour.

South to southwest winds diminish tonight, and slowly increase
tue morning. Then expect both stronger southerly coastal sea
breezes and SW inland flow Tuesday afternoon, with gusts AOA 20
kt likely.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 28 mi44 min 74°F 73°F2 ft1020.1 hPa (+0.0)73°F
44069 29 mi64 min SW 16 G 19 76°F 79°F76°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 36 mi46 min 74°F 73°F1019.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi46 min WSW 8.9 G 11 76°F 78°F1019.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi52 min SW 6 G 8 75°F 75°F1018.5 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi46 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 70°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY4 mi41 minSW 710.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1020.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY16 mi98 minSW 810.00 miFair77°F72°F85%1020 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W5W7W9SW9SW9SW9
G17
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1 day agoSW3CalmCalmNW3W6NW5NW3NW4NW8NW12NW9W10NW12
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2 days agoSW4SW7SW3SW3SW6W5W3W5NW6NW8N6CalmS7SW8S10SW11SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Bay entrance, Shinnecock Bay, New York
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Shinnecock Bay entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:18 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 04:07 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.10.50-0.20.10.81.72.42.82.82.41.81.20.60.1-0.10.10.81.72.53.13.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:18 AM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-1.8-1.5-0.90.11.11.61.61.20.4-0.6-1.3-1.8-1.8-1.5-0.9-0.11.11.81.91.71-0.1-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.