Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:45 AM EST (07:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:43AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 1142 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am est Tuesday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of dense fog and drizzle. Chance of rain late. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas building to 4 to 7 ft, then to 7 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 5 to 8 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 1142 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front lifts north through the region overnight and early Tuesday morning. A cold front then crosses the tri-state Tuesday afternoon and early evening, followed by a trough of low pressure pushing through the remainder of Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in from Wednesday through Friday, then slides offshore Friday night. A cold front approaches on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quogue, NY
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location: 40.82, -72.56     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230529
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1229 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north through the region overnight and early
Tuesday morning. A cold front then crosses the tri-state
Tuesday afternoon and early evening, followed by a trough of low
pressure pushing through the remainder of Tuesday night. High
pressure then builds in for the rest of the work week, followed
by a frontal system over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Sw flow aloft overnight, coupled with e-se flow at the surface,
and dry mid levels, will produce areas of drizzle and fog.

Visibilities across long island have reduced to generally 1 4
mile or less, so have issued a dense fog advisory there through
9z. Less than one mile at times. There is some potential this
may need to be extended in time, depending on exactly how fast
the warm front lifts to the north.

Elsewhere visibilities range from 0 to 5 miles at ASOS awos
sites across the cwa. There is the potential for the dense fog
advisory to be expanded to other portions of the cwa. Will
continue to closely monitor overnight.

As low to mid level isentropic lift and saturation increases
overnight expect rain to develop from SW to NE after midnight.

Should see some improvement in visibilities late tonight as you
get increased low level lift and some rain, both of which should
create enough mixing to raise visibilities.

Lows tonight should occur this evening, then temperatures should
slowly rise overnight in response to low level warm advection.

Lows should be from the mid 30s to around 40, except lower 40s
in the immediate nyc metro.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
As a warm front continues to push north tonight and into
Tuesday a deep moisture airmass along with precipitable water
values of 1 to 1.25" will set the stage for periods of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall, as a cold front approaches late
tonight and moves across the area Tuesday morning. The front is
forecast to move through fast, so the heavy rainfall at this
time doesn't seem to be a significant threat.

There will be some good instability ahead of the approaching cold
front. Will continue the mention for an isolated thunderstorms as
the cold front makes its way across the area. There is also the
potential for strong winds above the surface to mix down in any
thunderstorms. Regardless, a tight pressure gradient will lead to
strong winds across the area through the day but at the moment it
appears winds will be brief and sporadic enough to preclude a wind
advisory for now.

The front will pull offshore by Tuesday evening. Northwest winds
behind the front will usher in more seasonable temperatures. Tuesday
nights low will be in the low to mid 30s.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Not much change in the 12z data regarding the long term. High pres
builds in from the W on wed, with wnw winds ushering in a colder
airmass. Deep mixing provides a high confidence in temps, so a blend
of the data was used. There could be a period of bkn-ovc aftn cu
which the model data is not picking up on attm, so an upgrade in
cloud cover is possible with subsequent updates.

With deep unidirectional flow, winds should keep the lowest lvls
mixed Wed ngt. Temps therefore not as cold as a pure MOS blend.

Still breezy on Thu but deep subsidence will produce a sunny day.

The superblend was used for temps.

Still in the cool regime Fri as return flow does not commence til
late in the day. The superblend again used for temps. Some mid clouds
may infiltrate the skies if the WAA aloft develops fast enough.

A warming trend on Sat as a frontal sys approaches. The GFS and
ecmwf have diverged on timing however, with the ECMWF now about 24
hrs slower than the gfs, bringing the cdfnt and bulk of the rain in
on mon. The fcst remains close to the more consistent timing of the
gfs, with pops focused on Sun and Sun ngt. Lower pops remain in
place for mon, but again this could change if the ECMWF becomes a
trend. The superblend was used for temps.

Aviation 05z Tuesday through Saturday
A warm front just S of long island will push through late
tonight and early Tue morning, followed by a cold front tue
aftn.

Conds have dropped to lifr vlifr at all terminals ahead of the
warm front. See no reason why this should improve until the
rain moves in front lifts north between 09z and 13z. Improvement
on Tue is forecast to be gradual and current forecast may even
be improving conds too early, especially in the morning.

Moderate to heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
impact the area from daybreak through the afternoon with the
approach of a cold front.

E NE 5-10kt become light and vrb away from the coast overnight.

Winds veer to the SE then S late tonight into Tue morning as
warm front pushes north of the region. Llws compression likely
tue with gusts up to 35 kt possible, strongest for kisp kgon.

Cold frontal passage with wind shift to west will occur from mid
to late afternoon.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Tuesday night into Wednesday Vfr. Wnw g20-25kt possible.

Thursday-Friday Vfr.

Saturday Showers possible with s-sw g20kt.

Marine
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

With visibilities at ASOS awos close to the coast generally less
than 1 mile, have issued a marine dense fog advisory through 9z.

There is some potential this may need to be extended in time,
depending on exactly how fast the warm front lifts to the north.

South to southwest flow will rapidly strengthen across the area
waters overnight, with at least small craft advisory (sca)
level winds developing by morning. There probably will be some
occasional gusts to 25 kt on the coastal ocean waters late
overnight as well. Depending on the strength of the inversion,
there is potential for strong low- level jet winds to mix to the
surface, with at least occasional gale- force winds on Tuesday.

Occasional gale force winds will also be possible in any
thunderstorms that can develop. Seas will rapidly build in
response to the strengthened flow, remaining elevated even as
the cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Winds may briefly
drop off as the front moves through, before rapidly
strengthening again following its passage. SCA level winds in
the 25 to 30 kt range are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night on
all waters, so have an SCA up accordingly.

A SCA will be needed on the ocean Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Winds will be marginal elsewhere. Winds and seas will then
creep up towards SCA levels again on Thursday as low pressure
deepens over the atlantic. Winds and seas should be below sca
levels on Friday, then SW flow increases over the weekend ahead
of a frontal system.

Hydrology
Total rainfall through Tuesday is expected to range from around
1 2 to 1 inch, with locally up to 2 inches possible in any
stronger convection. There is a small chance for localized
ponding of water in any areas receiving locally heavy rainfall
due to convection, but no significant hydrologic issues are
anticipated at this time.

No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated from Tuesday
night through early next weekend.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
nyz078>081-177-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 6 am est
Wednesday for anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jmc fig maloit
near term... Maloit
short term... Fig
long term... Jmc
aviation... 24
marine... Jmc fig maloit
hydrology... Jmc fig maloit
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 36 mi46 min 46°F 35°F1017 hPa (-2.0)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi46 min NE 7 G 8.9 38°F 36°F1017 hPa (-2.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi46 min NE 5.1 G 7 40°F 35°F1015.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 42 mi36 min ENE 6 G 7 43°F 1021.6 hPa42°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi46 min N 4.1 G 7 39°F 37°F1017.2 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY4 mi53 minSE 70.50 miFog47°F45°F93%1016.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY16 mi50 minN 00.50 miFog42°F42°F100%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE6SE7SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE4E8NE5E5E9E7E8E44E4CalmSE3SE7
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8N6NW6N7CalmN5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoSW12SW9SW6SW8SW10SW15
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SW13SW8W10W10W8SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Bay entrance, Shinnecock Bay, New York
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Shinnecock Bay entrance
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Tue -- 12:43 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:01 PM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.121.61.10.70.30.20.20.51.11.72.12.22.11.81.30.70.30.100.20.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:30 AM EST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:40 AM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:08 PM EST     1.34 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.3-0.4-1-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.5-0.10.51.11.20.90.4-0.3-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.30.30.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.