Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:15 PM EDT (23:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:32AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 548 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms late this evening and early morning.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 548 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves across the waters into this evening, followed late tonight by a cold front. High pressure returns Friday and Friday night, sliding south of long island Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 232152
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
552 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front moves across the region into this evening,
followed later tonight by a cold front. The cold front will move
southeast of long island overnight. High pressure gradually
builds in from the north and west Friday and Friday night. High
pressure slides south of long island Saturday with a weak cold
front bringing showers Saturday night into early Sunday. High
pressure returns for memorial day followed by a warm front
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Updated to reflect expected precipitation trends and current dew
point trends. Previous discussion remains valid.

First round of convection is now largely over the ocean waters,
with rain across long island and connecticut. Clouds are
clearing again in its wake, allowing for additional diurnal
heating, though the window for increased surface-based heating
is limited as it's now late in the day. It's likely that more
favorable conditions will exist farther west of the forecast
area.

Regardless, water vapor imagery shows the next vorticity maximum
moving into central new york and pennsylvania. Convection
associated with this secondary wave has largely been shallow
thus far, and surface convergence appears to be limited where
the CU field is increasing, as flow as become more westerly. As
the cold front moves through later in the evening, surface
convergence will increase, and may allow for more additional,
deeper convective initiation development in response to the
forcing for ascent. Mid-level lapse rates upstream remain in the
6.5-7.0 c km range, which combined with the increasing deep
layer shear should be supportive of a few stronger updrafts and
possibly hail. By the time the convection reaches the forecast
area, it's likely that the loss of diurnal heating and the low
level warm advection will strengthen the existing inversion,
based around 850 mb, limiting a more widespread threat for
damaging winds, as storms will largely be elevated. The greatest
potential for any surface- based storms will be across the
lower hudson valley into northeastern nj, though this
instability will be waning given the time of day. As such, the
primary threats into the late evening will be hail and heavy
downpours if any storm can be sustained.

After that, overnight, expecting rapidly decreasing pops with
the cold front moving south of long island with surface flow
becoming more westerly.

Lows tonight are a narrow range from upper 50s to lower 60s
(consensus with greater weight for ecs) considering the
abundant clouds expected and increasing winds late tonight into
early Friday.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Ridging aloft will increase the subsidence so expecting dry
conditions Friday and Friday night along with minimal clouds.

At the surface, parent low pressure moves from near maine out
into the northern atlantic. Steep enough pressure gradient to
make for a breezy day across the region Friday with wind gusts
in the 30 to 35 mph range.

Backing of winds from low to mid levels in forecast soundings
shows cold air advection. Highs forecast on Friday mainly in the
lower 70s, relatively warmer at the coastline with the
downslope NW flow.

For Friday night, more of a spread for low temperatures, upper
40s to upper 50s. Winds decrease and without much clouds,
expecting more radiational cooling.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
High pressure builds from the great lakes Friday night before
sliding offshore late Saturday. This will lead to dry weather
and mild temperatures through Saturday. Lows Friday night will
be in the 50s.

With the high just to the south on Saturday high temperatures
will rise into the 70s, with cooler temperatures along the
coast. Southerly flow will advect in higher dew points, but in
general will be a nice afternoon with some increasing clouds
later in the day.

A weak cold front will approach Saturday night into Sunday.

This could bring a period of showers into early Sunday before
the front pushes offshore by Sunday afternoon.

Heights then rise behind the shortwave that drives the front
east with a ridge building behind for memorial day. That ridge
then becomes quite anomalous with a significant warming trend
likely into mid-week.

An approaching warm front may bring showers Tuesday followed by
dry weather Wednesday and another system on Thursday.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
A warm frontal passes this evening and will quickly be followed
by a cold frontal passage tonight.

First round of showers thunderstorms has passed east of the city
terminals and has begun to weaken as it continues east. There
will be a lull in activity for the next few hours with a chance
of a redeveloping showers and storms this evening. Questionable
timing and coverage however and its possible they may be more
scattered. Any showers storms this evening will be capable of
producing brief MVFR ifr. Brief wind shifts to the w-nw may
occur with any storm, but will prevail out of the s-sw.

Otherwise, winds will be from the s-sw this evening with some
gusts to near 20kt. Winds become more W after midnight and then
eventually NW towards Friday morning. Winds on Friday will gust
to near 30kt for most TAF sites.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi27 min SSW 14 G 15 64°F 60°F1013.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi27 min 67°F 60°F1013.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi27 min S 17 G 18 64°F 1013 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi33 min 67°F 62°F1013.2 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi27 min S 8.9 G 13
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi27 min SSE 7 G 11 65°F 66°F1014.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi25 min S 16 G 23 60°F 58°F3 ft1013.8 hPa58°F
44069 34 mi45 min SSW 16 G 19 61°F 65°F59°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi33 min S 7 G 9.9 63°F 56°F1012.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi25 min SSW 14 G 18 59°F 57°F5 ft1014.6 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi24 minS 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F60°F73%1012.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi24 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F63°F96%1013.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi24 minVar 39.00 miA Few Clouds66°F63°F90%1012.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi22 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F60°F90%1013.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi19 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F62°F90%1012.3 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi24 minSSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F61°F71%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S8S9SW12SW7SW7SW7S7SW9SW5SW56
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2 days agoW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT     7.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:21 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:03 PM EDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:10 PM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.55.87.27.67.56.85.23.11.60.90.50.71.945.96.876.85.842.31.51.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.20.70.90.60.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.200.10.40.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.