Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:49PM Friday August 18, 2017 6:03 PM EDT (22:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:34AMMoonset 5:29PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 400 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms this evening, then chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 400 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move slowly east across the area late tonight, then stall just east of long island on Saturday. High pressure will follow Saturday night through Tuesday. A cold front will pass across the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181951
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
351 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move slowly east across the area late tonight,
then stall just east of long island on Saturday. High pressure
will follow Saturday night through Tuesday. A cold front will
pass across the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure.

Near term until 11 pm this evening
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for portions of
northeast nj... Southeast ny... Nyc... Western long island and
western ct through 9 pm...

damaging wind gusts are possible with any thunderstorm that
develops through 9 pm as they approach from the west.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the threat of flash
flooding remains high due to a combination of earlier rainfall
of up to 4 inches in some areas, anomalously high dew points and
precipitable water values up to 2.2 inches. As such, a flash
flood watch was issued for NE nj, the metro nj nyc area,
including rockland, westchester, and nassau counties in ny and
southern fairfield county in ct until 11 pm this evening with
the expectation that showers and thunderstorms will increase
ahead of the cold front.

Satellite imagery shows a SW NE dry slot advecting NE across ne
nj. This will increase sfc based and low lvl instability
resulting in the development of organized convection mainly aft
20z this afternoon from SW to ne.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches,
potentially becoming high this afternoon.

Short term 11 pm this evening through Saturday night
Leftover showers and tstms will end with the passage of the cold
front between 06z and 12z overnight. With light winds forecast
during this time, areas of fog will develop, possibly dense
across long island and southern ct.

With a digging upstream trough approaching Saturday, the cold
front may not make it too far off the long island coast. In
fact, it's possible that it might retrograde a bit until the
passage of this trough Saturday night.

Dryer air will advect east across the area Saturday night as
high pressure advects east toward the area.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A broad area of high pres will build in Sun and mon. This will
produce seasonable temps and mostly clear skies. A thermal ridge
will build into the region Tue into wed, producing a mini heat
wave. Some spots, particularly across nern nj, may hit the 2 day
heat advy criteria. As subtropical moisture becomes entrained
in the flow, an increase in high clouds can be expected by wed.

The cold frontal timing has slowed slightly from the previous
12z model suite, so right now the timing is for the late aftn
and eve. Although the best chance for tstms will be with the
fropa wed, there will be chances prior, albeit lower, due to the
unstable airmass and onset of lowering heights. Because of the
progged position of the front and tendency of the guidance to
smooth out the temp gradient, highs were manually raised on wed.

A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week. The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
A cold front slowly approaches the region this evening but lags
nearby until early Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms cross all the nyc terminals between 21z
and 01z. What is left of the line will be east of kisp and kgon by
04-05z. Any storm may contain gusty winds and torrential rain.

MVFR ifr lifr ceilings are likely with the convection. Little or no
improvement is expected overnight since overall conditions will
remain saturated and fog and stratus are likely to continue or
redevelop.VFR returns Saturday morning as drier air works into the
region.

Southerly winds this afternoon, mainly between 10 to 15 kts. Gusts
to 25 kt possible along the coast. Higher gusts possible with any
thunderstorm. Winds become west and eventually northwest early
Saturday but remain light.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi46 min SSW 14 G 17 77°F 74°F1008.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi46 min 79°F 75°F1008 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi46 min SSE 11 G 12 1008.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi52 min 81°F 76°F1008.1 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi52 min SE 5.1 G 6
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi46 min SSE 8.9 G 12 80°F 75°F1007.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi74 min S 16 G 18 77°F 76°F4 ft1008 hPa (-2.0)76°F
44069 34 mi64 min SSW 16 G 18 77°F 78°F77°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi52 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 75°F1008.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi74 min SSW 18 G 19 76°F 74°F4 ft1009.1 hPa (-1.8)74°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi73 minSSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1008.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi73 minS 15 G 189.00 miOvercast78°F78°F100%1008.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi73 minVar 56.00 miFog/Mist80°F77°F90%1008.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi68 minSSE 76.00 miFog/Mist79°F75°F88%1008.1 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi71 minSSW 16 G 229.00 miOvercast78°F75°F90%1009.2 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi73 minSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F77°F82%1007.6 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S9S9SE6SE5S7S8S8S9S10S8S7S9S9S86Calm4S7SW13
G17
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S9S6S12
1 day agoNW6NW4N5CalmE5NW3NW8N4NE6NE7NE5NE5NE7NE7NE8
G18
NE10NE8NE8NE8NE10NE8S9S9
G15
S10
2 days agoS6S8S7S5CalmCalmS4CalmS4SW3CalmNW8NW7NW6NW7N6N9N7N7N846N6N3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM EDT     8.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.91.30.4-00.21.94.66.67.57.77.25.83.61.70.70.40.51.84.36.88.28.68.47.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:09 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:27 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:35 PM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:54 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.20.710.80.30-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.40.910.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.