Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:33PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:55 AM EST (05:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 7:26PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 927 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est Monday...
Overnight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 927 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds southwest of the waters overnight, eventually offshore Monday into Monday night. High pressure departs to the east Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high builds late week before next system impacts the area next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200223
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
923 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds southwest of the region tonight, eventually
offshore Monday into Monday night. High pressure departs to the
east Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high
builds late week before next system impacts the area next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Upper trough axis will swing across the region tonight.

Vorticity MAX within the trough could enhance lift just enough
to produce an isolated rain or snow shower, mainly N and W of
nyc. Have left pop as slight chance, but adjusted to better
match latest trends in observations.

At the surface, high pressure will build to the southwest of
the region. Winds will remain gusty out of the wnw, but will be
lowering in magnitude as mixing weakens through the night.

Lows were a blend of mav ecs as met numbers seemed too high.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The region is more in between the polar and subtropical upper
level jets. In the mid levels, more of a ridging trend will take
shape. At the surface, high pressure moves eastward towards the
carolina coastline Monday and then off into the atlantic Monday
night.

Dry conditions are expected through the period. Monday is
expected to be cooler, about 5 degrees below normal with more
gusty wnw flow, mitigating sensible heat transfer.

For Monday night, winds are expected to lower with gusts
diminishing. With mostly clear conditions, expect radiational
cooling to result in a more typical vast range of lows between
the urban heat island and inland rural sections.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Better model agreement today in this active and progressive pattern.

Aloft, active northern stream expected as multiple shortwaves pass
during this time frame.

Looks like the operational GFS has now trended much closer to other
global models with handling of mid week trough. Latest GFS is
notably weaker with trough along the gulf states Wednesday, and is
thus not developing a wave of low pressure off the coast Thursday,
like it did 24 hours ago.

As such, looks like WAA on the backside of the high will provide a
mild breezy day Tuesday, likely the warmest of this time frame.

Plenty of Sun will give way to increasing clouds as high level
moisture approaches, along with moisture advecting from the south in
the lower and mid levels. NAM wrf seems to be the most aggressive in
outputting precip ahead of the cold front. Still looks like best
chance for rain will be east of nyc late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Dry thereafter as ridge builds. A cold front passes with little
fanfare Friday, then next shortwave approaches this weekend. Colder
air advects in behind a front by Sunday. Minimal pops warranted next
weekend with this system.

Above normal temps Tuesday in WAA regime, then temps tumble to just
below normal from late Wednesday through Sunday. Looks like a cool
day Thursday, with a slight rebound Friday and Saturday before
falling back again Sunday. A model MOS blend followed which is in
line with latest wpc numbers.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Vfr as high pressure builds in through Monday.

Wnw winds continue tonight. Gusts 20-25 kt may be intermittent
at times. An isolated rain or snow shower possible mainly NW of
nyc terminals.

Gusty w-wnw winds around 25 kt expected on Monday.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in showers.

Sw winds g20-25kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. NW winds g20kt in the afternoon evening.

Thursday-Friday Vfr.

Marine
Steep pressure gradient remains tonight, so still expecting
gales for all waters tonight. Wind gusts closer to 35 kt are
forecast through the night as boundary layer flow decreases.

The boundary layer flow further decreases Monday with gales
becoming marginal. SCA will then be more likely across the
waters on Monday especially the ocean with high seas of 5-8 feet
continuing. SCA conditions still probable for the ocean Monday
night while non-ocean waters will see an eventual decrease in
wind gusts to below SCA late.

Winds increase in SW flow Tuesday. A few locations could
approach gale force or 35 kt. Winds then diminish somewhat
Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Low pressure passes
southeast of the waters Wednesday as the cold front crosses the
area. NW flow Wed night back to the west and diminishes further
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds. A cold front passes
Friday, with the ridge building back yet again.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are anticipated.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jm pw
near term... Jm ds
short term... Jm
long term... Pw
aviation... Ds
marine... Jm pw
hydrology... Jm pw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi40 min WSW 16 G 19 42°F 33°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi37 min NNW 13 G 18 41°F 51°F1010 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 11 mi66 min W 19 G 25 42°F 2 ft34°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi37 min 42°F 52°F1010.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi37 min W 14 G 16 41°F 1010.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi37 min 42°F 51°F1009.9 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi37 min W 13 G 16
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi37 min W 17 G 21 42°F 48°F1010.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi65 min W 25 G 31 45°F 57°F4 ft1008.2 hPa (+2.4)34°F
44069 34 mi55 min W 16 G 21 42°F 47°F33°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi43 min WNW 6 G 11 41°F 52°F1007.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi65 min WNW 25 G 31 46°F 57°F7 ft1008.2 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SW14
G18
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G22
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G23
W25
G31
NW24
G32
NW20
G31
N26
N24
G29
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G30
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G36
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G32
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NW6
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G14
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G22
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SW20
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G25
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SW12
SW9
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G17
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N15
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G18
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G29
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G26
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G11
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G14
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G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi64 minW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1008.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi64 minW 17 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F30°F65%1009.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi64 minW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast40°F28°F65%1008.8 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi59 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds38°F28°F68%1005.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi62 minW 1210.00 miOvercast39°F32°F76%1008.8 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi64 minW 810.00 miOvercast39°F30°F70%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S10S14
G25
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G30
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W22
G35
W24
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G36
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G36
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G30
NW25
G33
NW17
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NW14NW11NW12W12
G20
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W11W13
G20
1 day agoNW8NW5CalmCalmSW3S3S5CalmCalmSW7S13
G20
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G17
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S9S4CalmSW4S9S7S5S7S6
2 days agoNW17
G23
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G31
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G32
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G29
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NW19NW16NW16NW15NW15NW12W10W6W10

Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:10 AM EST     7.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM EST     7.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.47.15.93.81.80.80.60.81.94.26.57.787.76.64.62.30.80.20.10.62.34.86.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:41 AM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:53 PM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:49 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.30.80.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.20.710.70.2-0-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.