Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:47AMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 434 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms, mainly this evening, with vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon, with vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then around 1 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 434 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across this evening, followed by weak high pressure on Monday. A warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of long island. The front may lift through on Thursday, followed by a cold frontal approach Thursday night. This front may linger into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 262027
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
427 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves across the region this evening. Weak high
pressure builds into the area thereafter late tonight into
memorial day. A warm front approaches late Monday night into
Tuesday. This warm front will remain just south into Wednesday
night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of
long island. The front may lift through on Thursday, followed by
a cold frontal approach Thursday night. The front may linger
into Friday, then weak high pressure may build in later Friday
into Saturday before a series of weak disturbances approach and
pass through later in the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
A cold front approaches closer to the region and it will move
across this evening. In the mid levels, the local region will be
in between a ridge to the southeast and a low in southeast
canada. There will be some decrease in geopotential height
tonight as the shortwave in southeast canada moves southeast and
relatively closer to northern new england.

Clouds increase going into this evening with showers and
thunderstorms moving in and developing from eastern pa into
parts of upstate ny. These are forecast to continue moving
southeast through the lower hudson valley, northeast nj, the
nyc metro area, western long island and southwest connecticut
through the evening hours. The convective activity is forecast
to be mostly southeast of the region and offshore after midnight.

The mesoscale models exhibit general agreement with this
convective timing. In terms of forcing, models are conveying
850-500mb bulk shear magnitude to increase across the western
sections of the region around 8pm this evening with roughly 35
to 45 kt of shear. The surface CAPE is expected to increase late
this afternoon into early this evening across these same areas
to a range of 500-1000 j kg. The models might be under
estimating this instability considering the model forecast high
temperatures compared to reality. Enough forcing seems to be
present from the forecast models to include enhanced wording of
gusty winds (up to around 40 mph) and small hail with some
thunderstorms. The forecast model soundings indicate inverted v
type shape with low levels showing decent mixing as well as the
presence of mid level dry air. Evaporative cooling would enhance
downdrafts of thunderstorms and lower the freezing level as
well making for a higher possibility of having hail. There is
some low level dry air with the lower dewpoints, which will
present a limiting factor to thunderstorm development and
enhancement.

The instability and forcing across the local area decrease after
midnight and shift farther south of the region. Behind the cold
front, winds will shift more northerly, allowing for drier air
to enter the region. Convective coverage across the region
becomes more isolated after 11pm and eventually diminishes
totally overnight.

In terms of numerical weather prediction models and particularly,
the mesoscale models, still the hrrr run from 6 hours ago shows
the current convection upstream from the local region better
than the latest run. The hrw nssl also depicts rather well the
current convection in that same area upstream.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development into early
evening.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
A nearly steady height trend in the mid levels will be accompanied
by weak high pressure building in from the north and west.

For Monday, the drying trend continues with dewpoints about 5-10
degrees lower than the previous day. The northerly flow will help
promote these drier conditions. The winds will be weak so eventual
sea breeze circulations will likely occur during the afternoon hours.

Expecting a cooler day Monday with backing of winds from low to mid
levels and the several degrees cooler 850mb temperatures which
will be mixed down with daytime heating. A consensus of MOS was
utilized for the high temperature forecast, ranging mostly in
the mid to upper 70s.

The weak high will be moving northeast of the region Monday
night with a slight decrease in the height field in the mid
levels. There will be a warm front that will approach the region
late Monday night. Winds will be light and variable and clouds
for the first half of the night will be few to scattered
coverage before becoming more broken coverage overnight into
early Tuesday. There will be enough radiational cooling to make
for a relatively cooler night than the previous night, with
forecast lows ranging from mostly 50 to 60 degrees.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Have made only minor changes to the previous forecast based on
model trends over the past 24 hours. Much of this week should
feature quasi-zonal flow aloft, with flat ridging to the south,
and a series of passing shortwave troughs along with a nearby
sfc warm front bringing inclement wx at times. The first of
these, with an approaching warm front on tue, will feature cool
conditions with highs only from the mid 50s to mid 60s, and
periods of showers, possibly elevated thunder as well Tue night.

This front should remain to the south through at least wed
night, and there are signs it may only lift through part of the
area on Thu per gfs, making the temperature forecast east of nyc
rather uncertain (60s vs 70s). A cold front should follow late
thu, and the trend calls for slower timing, which if it pans out
could limit potential for strong to severe tstms.

Forecast details become murkier going forward from Fri into the
weekend. GFS continues to lag the cold front behind on fri, so have
mentioned chance of showers and possibly a TSTM for the daytime hrs.

Dry wx seems likely to follow for Fri night into at most of Sat via
weak passing high pressure, but then with a broad upper longwave
trough setting up over eastern north america and continued train of
shortwave disturbances passing through it, have slight chance pop
for late day Sat int Sunday morning, and higher chances late Sunday
into Sunday night. Above normal temps appear to be the rule in this
time frame per MOS guidance.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
A cold front approaches today and passes late this evening.

Main concern is for tsra over NE pa ny border as of 19z, working
into the nyc nj terminals between 21-24z. Strong wind gusts (40kt+)
are the main threat with any thunderstorms or a gust front from
weakening storms, with brief MVFR ifr possible. Cold front pushes
through late this evening, withVFR conditions late tonight into
Monday.

W winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt for city and inland terminals.

Sw winds for south coastal terminals, except southerly sea breeze at
jfk. Winds shift to the NW by late evening, then N overnight into
Monday morning. Mon afternoon S SE seabreeze likely for south
coastal terminals.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday Vfr. Afternoon S SE sea breeze development.

Tuesday MVFR or lower in likely showers. E gusts to 20 kt
possible near the coast.

Wednesday Chance of MVFR or lower in showers thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. Easterly winds.

Thursday Chance of MVFR or lower in aft eve
showers thunderstorms.

Friday Chance of aft eve showers.

Marine
The pressure gradient is expected to remain relatively weak
through Monday night with conditions staying below SCA criteria.

Wind gusts are expected to remain near or below 20 kt. Ocean
seas are forecast to stay between 2 to 4 ft through tonight and
then between 2 to 3 ft Monday through Monday night. Non-ocean
waters are forecast to be around 1 ft or less through the short
term through Monday night.

Still expecting quiet conds with respect to prevailing
winds seas through the longer term. Tstms may also pose a hazard
at times during mid week, especially on thu.

Hydrology
Average rainfall amounts through tonight are less than a
quarter of an inch.

Only hydrologic impacts in short term would be any series of
thunderstorms that move across tonight. These would produce
locally higher amounts of rainfall and perhaps some brief minor
flooding. Otherwise no other hydrologic impacts expected.

Rainfall from late Mon night into Tue night should average from 1 2
to 3 4 inch. Up to another half inch may be possible late day thu
into Fri morning.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Goodman jm
near term... Jm
short term... Jm
long term... Goodman
aviation... Nv
marine... Goodman jm
hydrology... Jm goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi53 min WNW 8.9 G 11 79°F 60°F1011.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi53 min 79°F 60°F1010.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi53 min W 13 G 15 85°F 1010.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi53 min 85°F 65°F1010.8 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi53 min W 8 G 12
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi53 min W 8.9 G 9.9 75°F 62°F1012.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi33 min S 9.7 G 14 66°F 62°F3 ft1011.1 hPa63°F
44069 34 mi53 min SSW 14 G 18 67°F 68°F63°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi53 min W 6 G 16 85°F 56°F1009.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi33 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 60°F4 ft1011.6 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi32 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F54°F32%1010.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi32 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1011.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi32 minVar 610.00 miFair84°F57°F40%1010.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi30 minSSW 810.00 miFair76°F62°F62%1011 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi87 minWNW 710.00 miA Few Clouds83°F57°F41%1010.8 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi32 minW 910.00 miFair85°F59°F42%1010 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.20-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-000.30.70.70.30-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.100.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.