Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:30PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:11 PM EDT (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 418 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms this evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 418 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across the waters overnight into early Tuesday. This will be followed by weak high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday night. A cold front will then push through the area waters Wednesday. High pressure will build over the waters Thursday, then slide offshore through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182024
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
424 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the region late tonight through
early Tuesday. Weak high pressure then builds in Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A cold front moves through the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night. High pressure then builds over the area
through Thursday night then slides offshore Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front may approach Sunday and move across the
area on Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Pre-frontal trough ahead of cold front will be moving into the
region for this evening and will act as a focus for developing
showers and thunderstorms. However, there is vertical limits to
development with residual ridging aloft. The ridge eventually
becomes flattens and gives way to an approaching trough late
tonight.

In terms of hazards, heat advisory remains for NE nj and the
lower hudson valley; this will end at 8pm.

Other hazard would just be associated with the thunderstorms
with the cold front moving across. Not expecting severe; SPC has
interior parts of the region in marginal risk (5%) for severe wind
gusts.

Thinking here some thunderstorm activity could have strong wind
gusts of 30-40 kt possible but bulk shear values are limited
this far south with higher values near the base of the mid and
upper level trough.

Also thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.

Pwats near 2 inches will enable for thunderstorms to tap into a
moisture rich environment.

The higher chances for thunderstorms will be with the remaining low
level instability. The instability will be higher near nyc and
locations to the north and west. This instability really starts to
decrease more overnight. That time though is when the central low
and cold frontal boundary will be pushing through so enough forcing
will be there to keep for some thunderstorm activity for a part of
the overnight. Convective activity trends downward after the
cold front passage towards daybreak Tuesday
a high risk of rip currents remains at atlantic beaches into
this evening.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Weak high pressure builds in from the great lakes Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The trough aloft moves into the canadian
maritimes Tuesday and into northern atlantic Tuesday night. The
ridging in the mid and upper levels stays anchored in the
southeast us leaving the local region with westerly zonal flow.

Rain showers come to an end during the morning behind the cold
front.

More stable and drier air moves in behind the front during the day
with deep N NW flow in the atmosphere.

This will provide downslope warming and while less humid with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. This will be from daytime mixing
up to around or a little higher than 5 kft. The highs were taken
from the relatively warmer mav guidance ranging from mid 80s to near
90. However with aforementioned less humid conditions, apparent
temperatures will be right near actual temperatures.

For Tuesday, there will be moderate risk of rip currents at the
ocean beaches, and high risk for rip currents again for
southeast suffolk ocean beaches.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure will track along a boundary Wednesday afternoon. This
could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire
area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Some of the
thunderstorms are capable to produce torrential downpours along with
gusty winds. As the boundary moves offshore Wednesday night showers
will tapper off. Dry conditions expected on Thursday and into early
Saturday. Unsettled weather then likely later Saturday and into the
beginning of the work week with some rumbles of thunder mainly
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Temperatures during this time period will be near normal.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
A cold front will approach this evening, and cross tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north tonight.

Sparse tsra threat for nyc nj terminals and n&w, with brief
MVFR ifr vsby and gusty winds, will likely be from the line of
scattered thunderstorms across N central pa as of 20z. Have
continued to mention via vcts, with low confidence on how well
this activity hold together into the city terminals. An
additional round of showers likely, with perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm, as the front passes through nyc metro towards
midnight.

Otherwise, potential for a brief period of sct MVFR ifr stratus at
kisp or kgon this evening.

Gusty s-sw flow of 10-15 kt with gusts 20 kt into early evening,
except sea breezes at kjfk klga kbdr kisp with sustained winds 15-20
kt and gusts approaching 25 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi42 min SSW 20 G 21 78°F 65°F1011.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi42 min 83°F 66°F1011.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi42 min SW 15 G 19 90°F 1011.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi42 min 92°F 70°F1010.9 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi42 min SSW 13 G 19
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi42 min SW 9.9 G 17 83°F 73°F1012.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi32 min S 21 G 25 70°F 67°F1011.6 hPa68°F
44069 34 mi42 min SSW 19 G 23 71°F 75°F71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 17 77°F 62°F1010.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi82 min SSW 18 G 21 69°F 67°F3 ft1012.9 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi21 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F68°F48%1010.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi21 minS 22 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy78°F66°F69%1011.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi21 minVar 58.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F70°F52%1010.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi16 minS 9 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F68°F55%1009.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi19 minSSW 20 G 2510.00 miFair and Breezy78°F64°F64%1011.6 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi21 minWSW 14 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds94°F72°F49%1009.4 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12
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S12S10S6S6S10SW13
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SW9SW8SW6S9SW7S8S7SW8S9SW10SW11SW9
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1 day ago3SE10SE9S8SW12SW9S3S4SW5SW3CalmCalmN3NE3CalmCalmNW4NW4NW4CalmSW3SW4S13S13
2 days agoN10N10N6E5E6E6S7S5SW4SW4CalmW3NW4NW8NW5CalmN7NE3N8N54W4N5NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     8.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:20 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.36.188.58.37.55.73.21.10-0.4-0.21.346.57.88.27.96.74.62.30.90.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:39 PM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:53 PM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.3-00.20.510.90.40-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.30.81.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.