Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manorhaven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:32PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:00 PM EST (04:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 949 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow, sleet and rain. Freezing rain. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow. Rain, sleet and freezing rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 949 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south and west tonight, then redevelops to our south and passes to the south and east late tonight into Monday morning. High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday, followed by another low pressure system for mid week. High pressure then returns for Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manorhaven, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.71     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180246
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
946 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the south and west, then redevelops to
our south and passes to the south and east late tonight into Monday
morning. High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday, followed by
another low pressure system for Wednesday into Thursday. High
pressure then returns for Thursday night into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Precip beginning to break out across the region this evening.

There are growing concerns with lack of snow growth aloft as
reports of mainly rain with a few ice pellets in NE nj and
across the nyc metro. Light snow has been reported across the
interior where best frontogenetic forcing may set up through the
night.

Made some minor adjustments to the snowfall forecast, mainly for
the coast to lower just a bit.

Otherwise, potential still exists for 2 to 4 inches across the
interior of the lower hudson valley, interior ct and interior ne
nj with 1 to 3 inches for coastal ct and portions of NE nj
closer to nyc. These amounts are less certain due to potential
of earlier mixing cutting down on totals. There will be a
transition to a wintry mix of light snow and fzra towards
daybreak all advisory area as mid levels level begin to dry but
ample low-level moisture remains ahead of approaching
shortwave. A light glazing of ice on top of snow covered roads
likely for the morning commute in this advisory area.

For LI and nyc nj metro, this area may be in between two best
frontogenetic zones to the N and S overnight. The north shore of
li and norther nyc could see around an inch with less than an
inch across the southern half. If precip intensity remains
light, the amounts may be further reduced. Any wintry precip
should transition to all rain in these locations around 1-2am
southern half to 2-4 am northern half. Do not think temperatures
will stay at or below freezing for long, if they do in fact
drop to these levels so no significant icing concerns.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Only low level moisture will remain into the first half of
Monday with any snow and ice tapering off early across far
northeastern sections of ct, and some leftover drizzle and light
rain for the remainder of the cwa. May take a little while to
clear out during Monday afternoon, but increasing cold air
advection should aid in drying and clearing things out by the
late afternoon. Temperatures will drop well below average into
Monday night with teens north and northwest, with widespread
lower 20s closer to the coast, with some single digit and lower
teen wind chills late at night and early Tuesday morning. Winds
may briefly gust to 30 mph in some locations during Tuesday
evening as the storm intensifies and pulls away out over the
atlantic.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
The region transitions under a confluent upper flow Tue into wed,
between upper ridging south of bermuda and polar low sliding across
central quebec and canadian maritimes. At the surface, canadian high
pressure builds overhead on Tuesday into Tuesday night and then
slides eastward Wednesday.

Region comes more under the influence of the southern stream
midweek, as early week SW us trough shears eastward towards the
great lakes and new england, while SW troughing is reinforced once
again. In the SW flow aloft, weak southern stream energy lifts up
towards the region Tue night into wed, with associated southern low
gradually approaching Wed and tracking near the region thu. Although
forcing with this system does not look to be overly strong, deep
layered lift ahead of shortwave and right rear of 175+ kt llj
combined with gulf tap of 2-3 +std pwats is trending towards a
moderate precip event for late Wed into Thu morning. Thermal
profiles appear cold enough to start as all snow Wed wed eve, then
gradually transitioning to wintry mix interior and all rain
city coast Wed night into Thu morning, before gradually tapering off
thu afternoon as mid-level shortwave passes. Too early to talk about
snow ice amounts, but potential for a light snow sleet accumulation,
before transition to rain city coast, and some icing interior.

Thereafter, generally zonal pac influenced upper flow for late week
into the weekend, lending to slightly above seasonable temps. Next
feature of interest will be the timing amplitude of the late week sw
trough as it ejects eastward across the country this weekend.

Considerable timing spread exists, as well as degrees of interaction
with northern stream. With available gulf moisture, this energy will
likely bring the next chance of significant precip from low
pressure s. At this point too much uncertainty in evolution to
diagnose p-types.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Low pressure will impact the terminals into Monday.

Light SE winds will continue to shift to the E as the wintry
mix develops overnight and then NE by day break. The flow will
become NW by Monday afternoon and increase into Monday evening
becoming gusty, 20-30 kt.

Conditions will lower to MVFR and ifr overnight as a wintry mix
develops. Precipitation tapers of to a drizzle Monday morning
with gradual improvement into the evening. The precipitation
type is expected to rapidly transition to rain 06z-09z at nyc
terminals and kisp. Elsewhere, a wintry mix including a few
hours of -fzdz, especially at kswf, khpn and kbdr may be
possible into the late morning. Conditions should gradually
improve Monday afternoon.

There is the potential for 2 to 3 inches of snowfall overnight at
kswf with 1 to 2 inches most elsewhere. Lowest totals expected
for nyc terminals and kisp where generally less than an inch is
forecast before changing to rain.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night into Tuesday Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt for the
evening into overnight, diminishing early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday Snow possible with MVFR or lower conditions in the
afternoon and evening, changing to a wintry mix at night.

Thursday MVFR or lower in a wintry mix inland and rain at the
coast in the morning. NW gusts 15-20 kt possible in the evening.

Friday Vfr.

Marine
Low pressure approaches from the southwest, passing to the
south and east late tonight into Monday. Sub SCA conditions are
expected tonight through much of the day on Monday, before
winds and seas increase later Monday afternoon. SCA conditions
will then return to the ocean waters, and the eastern sound and
eastern bays during Monday night. This will be a short-lived
event though as high pressure quickly builds into the waters on
Tuesday with conditions falling below sca.

The next chance for SCA conds will likely be Wed night through
thu night with the next low pressure system moving over the
waters.

Hydrology
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

Tides coastal flooding
A low pressure system tracking to the south of the region
tonight into Monday, and a full moon on the 19th, will combine to
bring localized minor coastal flooding during the Monday morning
high tide.

Affected areas will be the most vulnerable locales of the south
shore bays of queens and nassau county, W long island sound, and
along lower ny nj harbor.

Surge of 1 to 1 1 2 ft and, locally 2 ft, is needed for minor flood
thresholds to be reached.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for ctz005>012.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for nyz067>071.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for njz002-004-
103>105.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm Monday to 7 am est Tuesday for
anz330-340.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm Monday to 7 am est Tuesday for
anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Je nv
near term... Je nv ds
short term... Je
long term... Nv
aviation... Ds
marine... Je nv
hydrology... Je nv
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 3 mi31 min Calm G 5.1 33°F 36°F1015.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 18 mi31 min 35°F 38°F1014.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi31 min SSE 13 G 15 35°F 1015.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi37 min 35°F 39°F1014.8 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi31 min SE 8.9 G 13
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi31 min SSE 6 G 7 35°F 39°F1016.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi21 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 36°F 40°F1015.5 hPa32°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 37 mi37 min S 2.9 G 5.1 32°F 36°F1016.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi71 min S 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 40°F2 ft1016.4 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi70 minSE 610.00 miLight Rain35°F25°F67%1016.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi70 minSE 410.00 miLight Rain35°F30°F82%1017 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY14 mi70 minno data10.00 miLight Rain34°F28°F79%1015.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi68 minS 310.00 miUnknown Precip33°F28°F82%1017.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi65 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F21°F67%1016.4 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ18 mi70 minN 010.00 miLight Rain34°F28°F79%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N10N8N14N12N11N8N13NE9NE9NE11NE5NE9CalmS3S8S6SE7S9S8S74SE6E6
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2 days agoSE6S8S5SE5S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:16 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM EST     8.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM EST     7.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.71.70.50.20.31.33.56.17.78.17.86.95.12.70.8-0.2-0.7-0.41.13.86.27.37.57

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:33 AM EST     1.03 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:46 AM EST     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:58 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:12 PM EST     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.20.50.910.50.1-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.30.81.10.80.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.