Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelham Manor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:16PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:19 PM EDT (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:55AMMoonset 6:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 941 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain late.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms at night. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 941 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will develop across the mid atlantic states tonight then move slowly northeast across the coastal waters late Thursday and off the new england coast late Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday...then slides offshore Saturday night. An area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Sunday and Sunday night...then passes to the south on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelham Manor, NY
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location: 40.85, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250242
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1042 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move slowly east across the area Thursday
night, then move east of the area Friday. Weak high pressure
returns for Saturday. Another frontal system will then impact
the area for the latter half of the holiday weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Clouds, mainly high and mid level, were advancing northward as
seen on satellite, with lower clouds expected after 05z as warm
frontal boundary approaches. Increased cloud cover into Thursday
morning.

Isentropic lift increases ahead of an approaching warm front
resulting in rain developing from SW to NE aft 06z. Rainfall
prior to 12z should be mostly light.

Decided to go with higher categorical pops between 06z and 12z.

For forecasts of coastal flood advisories and statements with
this evening's high tides, read the tides and coastal flooding
section.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
As an upper low over SE mo mvs very slowly ne, an upper lvl short
wave rotating arnd its base will become negatively tilted.

Moisture from the gulf of mexico and SW atlantic ocean will
converge and be tapped from a secondary low developing near va.

Widespread moderate rain of up to 0.50 inch with isolated higher
amounts, more than fcst by the models, is fcst between 12z and
18z thu, leading to possible minor urban flooding of low lying
and poor drainage areas.

Coastal flood advisories have been issued for Thursday evening's
high tide cycle. And, a coastal flood watch has been issued for
parts of the coastal areas for the Thursday evening's high tide
cycle. See the tides and coastal flooding section.

As the low lifts further north closer to the area, the widespread
moderate rain is forecast to become lighter Thursday afternoon.

Additional rain is forecast Thursday night as the stacked low
passes directly over the local area.

Storm total rainfall is forecast to range from 1.0 to 1.5 inches
with isolated higher amounts through the day Friday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
A cutoff low lifts NE through the gulf of maine Friday,
bringing scattered to numerous showers (se ct). Highs Friday
should be within a few degrees of either side of normal.

Northern stream ridging builds in Friday night-Saturday night,
with associated subsidence keeping things dry, except for maybe
some lingering showers early Friday evening as the upper low
continues to depart. However, a shortwave passing over the top
of the ridge could bring some mid clouds mainly on Saturday.

Lows Friday night should be near to slightly above normal, highs
on Saturday near normal and lows Saturday night a few degrees
above normal.

The northern stream ridge axis slides to the east Sunday,
allowing for shortwaves rotating around the base of a broad
closed low over S central canada to move across the area from
time to time early next week (unfortunately the timing of
specific shortwaves this far out is problematic at best), at the
same time a combination of weak coastal lows passing to the s
and high pressure building down from SE canada should produce
onshore e-se flow. So could see some rain drizzle with any
shortwave given the increase in low level moisture Sunday-Monday
morning, then possibly some showers thunderstorms late Monday
with the strongest shortwave passing.

Weak ridging builds in from Monday night into Tuesday, followed
by more shortwaves rotating around the S canada closed low,
which has slid a bit farther E into hudson bay NW ontario),
Tuesday night and Wednesday - with maybe some more isolated-
scattered showers.

Temperatures should be within a few degrees of either side of
normal Sunday-Monday night, then run above normal Tuesday-
Wednesday.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Weak high pressure will be followed by the approach of a low
pressure system late tonight into Thursday.

Vfr most of the night with e-se winds around 10 kt, increasing
closer to 15 kt overnight. On Thursday, MVFR conds by the
morning push with rain developing, lowering to ifr by the end of
the push. Ifr prevails all day with rain. E winds averaging
around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.

Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday
Thursday night Lifr ifr in rain.

Friday MVFR ifr possible. Chance of showers.

Saturday Vfr.

Sunday-Monday MVFR ifr possible in showers.

Marine
Seas on the outer ocean waters east of moriches inlet were up to
6 feet, a few hours ahead of forecast, so increased seas in the
southeast flow ahead of an approaching warm front.

A small craft advisory SCA remains in effect for atlantic ocean
coastal waters through the day Thursday and might need to be
extended for seas through Thursday night.

An SCA was issued for all remaining local coastal waters from 6
am through 6 pm Thursday for E winds of 15 to 25 kt.

As low pressure moves very slowly east across the area through
Thursday night, periods of rain along with isolated
thunderstorms are forecast after 2 am tonight through the day
Thursday.

As the low moves east of the area, winds will shift from the w
at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on Friday with additional
scattered showers possible.

Small craft level seas should continue on the coastal ocean
waters Friday and Friday night. Otherwise, with a light to
moderate pressure gradient limiting sustained winds to 15 kt or
less Friday- Monday, sub-small craft conditions are forecast
for the waters around long island for the memorial day weekend.

Hydrology
1.00" to 1.50" of rain is forecast from 06z Thursday until 00z
Friday. Higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday. Minor urban and small stream flooding is
possible Thursday.

Another round of rain is possible Sunday night into late
Monday. At this time, it is to soon to specify, what, if any,
hydrologic impact will be experienced from this system.

Tides coastal flooding
The Wednesday evening high tide cycle has passed along the south
shore. Water levels have receded below the minor coastal
flooding benchmarks and additional coastal flooding is no longer
expected. The coastal flood advisories and coastal flood
statements for the south shore and into coastal; new jersey for
this evening have been discontinued.

Local and brief minor coastal flooding is possible with
tonight's high tide along southwestern connecticut and coastal
westchester county. A coastal flood statement remains.

Astronomical tides are lower for the Thursday morning, however,
a strengthening easterly flow late tonight into Thursday
morning will bring the potential for localized brief and minor
flooding with Thursday mornings high tide.

The primary threat for widespread minor and potentially moderate
coastal flooding still exists for the Thursday night high tide
cycle. How quickly easterly winds begin to weaken Thursday night
will be key to the potential for seeing widespread versus localized
moderate coastal flooding along the southern bays of nyc and western
li. Along western LI sound, ny nj harbor including
manhattan, and the southern bays of suffolk county, widespread
minor coastal flooding is likely with less than 1 2 ft of surge
needed in many places to reach minor flood thresholds. Minor
flood thresholds could briefly be touched along the eastern bays
of LI and SE ct.

The potential for dune erosion looks to be low and localized during
Thursday night high tide.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm Thursday to 1 am edt Friday
for ctz009-010.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm to 10 pm edt Thursday for
nyz074.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm Thursday to 1 am edt Friday
for nyz071-073-078-176-177.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm Thursday to midnight edt
Thursday night for nyz080.

Coastal flood watch Thursday evening for nyz075-178-179.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 am edt Friday
for nyz072.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm to 10 pm edt Thursday for
njz006-106-108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm edt Thursday for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Gc
near term... Gc met
short term... Gc
long term... Maloit
aviation... Jc
marine... Gc met nv
hydrology... Gc maloit
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 7 59°F 58°F1010.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 5 mi35 min 60°F 51°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 14 mi65 min ESE 3.9 G 7.8 60°F 1 ft53°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 15 mi50 min 60°F 58°F1009.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi50 min ESE 17 G 20 59°F 1010.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi50 min 59°F 59°F1009.8 hPa
MHRN6 24 mi50 min ESE 11 G 15
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi50 min ESE 11 G 14 57°F 58°F1009 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi90 min E 16 G 19 57°F 58°F4 ft1008.8 hPa (+0.7)53°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi50 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 58°F 1010.1 hPa
44069 40 mi50 min E 18 G 21 58°F 65°F57°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY6 mi29 minE 1210.00 miOvercast60°F51°F72%1009.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY10 mi29 minVar 510.00 miFair60°F50°F70%1009.8 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ13 mi29 minSE 810.00 miFair61°F51°F70%1009.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY13 mi29 minE 1110.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1010 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi24 minESE 710.00 miFair57°F52°F83%1009.7 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi29 minESE 710.00 miOvercast60°F51°F72%1009.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi27 minE 610.00 miFair58°F51°F78%1010 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5E3NE4NE5E3SE6SE6E4NE4NE7NE8NE10NE7NE9NE15NE11
G20
NE11NE11NE12NE7S7SE5SE10E12
1 day agoNW6N8NW8NW12N7N4N7NE5NE8NE5NE7E7NE4CalmNE4NW6CalmNE4NE4CalmCalmS6S6S8
2 days ago--S10S8S9S7SE6NE4SE7E6SE7SE8SE9SE10E9E6E6S8S7S7S6S5S5CalmW7

Tide / Current Tables for City Island, New York
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City Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:34 AM EDT     7.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     8.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.35.42.80.6-0.4-0.7-0.21.346.57.77.87.35.93.61.3-0.1-0.4-01.33.86.78.58.9

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:26 AM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.30.10.30.71.110.40-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.511.10.60.1-0.2-0.5-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.