Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Cliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:19 AM EDT (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 325 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Periods of rain early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 325 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres tracks se of the waters today. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Cliff, NY
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location: 40.86, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210755
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
355 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track southeast of the region today, allowing
high pressure to build in from the north on Friday. A warm
front passes early this weekend, then is followed by a cold
front later this weekend. High pressure builds next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pres was analyzed just N of acy at 7z. The low will slowly
track ewd today. This will bring an end to the rain from W to e,
with the heaviest pcpn over LI where it appears the best mid
lvl frogen is located based on radar. The cloud shield extends
out to cntrl pa, so it will take some time to clear things out
completely. Timing for mostly sunny looks to be about 15z port
jervis area, to as late as 20z montauk. The NE flow is progged
to be blw 10kt, and with h85 flow falling blw 15kt at 18z, a sea
breeze is possible. The model consensus is for the flow to veer
to around 100 degrees, but it would not be surprising to see
spots along the immediate S coasts to go closer to true sea
breeze direction. The nbm was used for temps.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
High pres builds into NRN new england tngt, and there is a
suggestion that some marine stratus flows in from the e. The
nam is much more aggressive than the gfs, which is typical, but
the GFS has a significant amount of cirrus as well, which is
supported by the current water vapor imagery. As a result, the
fcst is ptcloudy, with room for upward adjustment based on the
evolution of the marine stratus and eventual thickness of the
cirrus. Increasing clouds from the S then on Fri as SW flow
aloft develops. Increasing thetae could support a few shwrs,
particularly late in the day across the swrn portion of the cwa.

Pops have been limited to slight chc however in line with the
model consensus data. The NAM holds firm with the high resulting
in dry wx. The nbm was used for temps, with cooler highs due to
onshore ely flow.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Closed upper low opens as it traverses across the great lakes region
and into new england this weekend. Models are in overall agreement
on main features, with details still differing somewhat.

In general, warm front approaches Friday night, with a wave of low
pressure riding along the front, passing south and east by Saturday.

Ridging from the northeast could result in drier conditions,
providing subsidence and stability, with persistent onshore flow
prevailing north of the front, and wave.

However, the upper low and trough are progged to open up as
mentioned and broaden as the system lifts towards the great lakes.

The main upper trough axis swings through Saturday evening and
Saturday night leaving behind a westerly flow on Sunday. Another
upper trough should cross the region Sunday night into Monday,
finally taking the frontal system offshore.

Will maintain previous forecast of gradually increasing pops on
Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance coverage to
likely numerous coverage for showers. Meager instability noted, so
thunder chances remain quite low Saturday.

It appears at this time the best forcing will be with the upper
shortwave axis and passage of the warm front Saturday evening into
Saturday night, so showers thunder possible during that time frame.

Conditions should dry out Sunday with the region fully in the warm
sector. Westerly flow aloft and a much drier middle and upper
atmosphere prevents anything more than a chance for showers and
thunderstorms with a cold front nearby. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms continues into Monday morning with the upper trough
axis passing across the area eastern new england. Drier weather
returns Monday per 00z model suite.

While the weekend certainly does not look like a washout, there will
be periods of showers and possible storms Saturday night into
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any convection.

High pressure returns behind the upper trough and frontal
system moving offshore on Monday. The high will be in control
through the middle of the week.

Temperatures average below normal Saturday and then above normal on
Sunday. Temperatures should then average near normal for next
week.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
A wave of low pressure approaches from western pennsylvania,
passing near or just south of the terminals during the overnight
hours. A backdoor cold front moves into the terminals toward
00z Friday.

MVFR conditions in rain expected through the early morning
hours. Periods of ifr conditions are possible in any heavier
pockets of rain, primarily across the nyc and coastal terminals.

Rain then tapers off from west to east between 09z and 12z, with
conditions improving toVFR thereafter.

Light and variable winds overnight return out of the N to ne
around daybreak as the low passes to the south and east. NE to
at times E winds then continue through the day at around 10 kt
before diminishing tonight.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Thursday night and Friday Vfr.

Saturday Sub-vfr. Showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm
during the evening and nighttime hours.

Sunday Chance of sub-vfr conditions in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday Chance of showers early, becomingVFR.

Marine
Light NE winds will develop today behind a departing low. Winds
and seas will remain blw SCA lvls thru tngt. Increasing ely flow
will build seas to near SCA lvls on the ocean fri. Elsewhere,
winds will remain blw 25kt.

A frontal system is expected to impact the waters this weekend.

While gusts to 20 kt are possible, generally expect wind gusts to
remain below 25 kt through the weekend.

Easterly winds shift to the sw, then west as the weekend progresses.

By Monday, winds turn to the NW behind a cold front.

Ocean seas may build to 5 ft this weekend as a warm front moves
north and SW flow increases further. Otherwise, seas remain generally
in the 3 to 5 ft range, with 1 ft or less on the non ocean waters
this weekend into early next week, except extreme eastern LI sound
and the entrance of the ny harbor.

Hydrology
Around a half inch of additional rainfall is expected this mrng
across ERN li. Otherwise, rainfall of a quarter inch or less is
expected elsewhere. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this
weekend, especially late Saturday into Saturday night. However,
no significant widespread hydrologic impacts are currently
expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc pw
near term... Jmc
short term... Jmc
long term... Pw
aviation... Feb 19
marine... Jmc pw
hydrology... Jmc pw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 7 mi50 min E 5.1 G 8 65°F 65°F1008.6 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi60 min NE 9.7 G 9.7 66°F 64°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi50 min 68°F 67°F1008 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 26 mi50 min NNE 9.9 G 12 67°F 1007.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi50 min 67°F 70°F1007.4 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi50 min NNE 8.9 G 13
44069 32 mi50 min E 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 75°F68°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 33 mi50 min NE 8.9 G 13 67°F 71°F1008 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi50 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi40 min NNE 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 68°F1006.4 hPa68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi50 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 68°F1008.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Last
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NE1
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NE5
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G10
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NW6
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S9
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G17
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G12
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G14
NW8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY13 mi29 minNE 95.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F64°F93%1007.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi29 minNNE 116.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist66°F66°F100%1007.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi84 minNNE 36.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist65°F64°F97%1007.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi27 minNE 84.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist66°F64°F96%1007.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY17 mi29 minVar 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F64°F93%1007.3 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ21 mi29 minNE 44.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist67°F64°F93%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3NE5NE6NE8NE7NE7NE6NE8S5SE8
G16
SE10
G15
S8S11S10S9S8S8S7SE6E4NE6NE10NE9
1 day agoNW10
G18
NW12
G19
NW12NW14
G22
NW12N7
G16
N12N11N12
G18
N11
G15
N7NW10N10NW8N5E8NE8NE6NE4NE4NE5NE3NE3NE4
2 days agoSW7S8S7SW8S9SW10SW11SW9
G18
S15S13S13
G17
S14
G21
S11S10S11S12
G20
W21
G34
S11SW8SW9W12W11
G24
W9
G20
W12

Tide / Current Tables for Glen Cove, Hempstead Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Glen Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     7.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.11.23.45.56.77.37.56.64.82.81.40.60.10.52.54.96.77.78.27.96.44.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.910.60.20-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.60.90.70.30.1-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.