Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:07 AM EST (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 939 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of snow late this evening, then rain with snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain with snow likely in the morning, then chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 939 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure develops along the mid atlantic coast tonight and then passes across or just east of the waters on Wednesday before moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure will then build to the south through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170619
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
119 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure develops along the mid atlantic coast tonight and
then passes near or just east of long island on Wednesday before
moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday
night. High pressure will then build to the south through Friday
and move into the western atlantic this weekend. A cold front
then passes through Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Near term until 6 am this morning
No significant changes were made to the forecast with this
update except to delay precip timing a bit from nyc on east. It
looks like precip will blossom after 06-08z as the upper trough
dynamics interact with the developing secondary low. No changes
were made to the winter weather headlines.

Light snow continues to fall across NW orange county. Starting
to see reflectivity increase as better dynamics begin to move
into this area. Steadier precipitation will continue to
overspread from the west through the night and then blossom
across the rest of the area towards day break.

Have taken an initial look at the 00z nam12, 00z 3-km NAM and
they generally support the current forecast. QPF may be a bit
lower than previous runs, but overall looks close. The latest
hrrr also is in general agreement with the ongoing forecast.

The biggest challenge continues to lie with the northward
extent of the warmer air and how far the rain snow line works.

Despite temperatures currently running a bit cooler than
previously forecast in the nyc metro area, a surge of warmer air
at the surface to just above 925 mb is anticipated. This is due
to a prolonged period of s-se winds ahead of the developing low.

The transition of energy from upper trough weakening primary low
is to the secondary low is slow such that an inverted trough is
expected to extend back into the hudson valley of new york.

This should allow the rain snow line to make it about 10-20
miles north and west of i-95 corridor in new jersey to near or
just south of a line from hpn to dxr.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady overnight and even slowly
rise. Lows will range from the upper 20s in the interior to the
mid 30s along the coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Low pressure near long island in the morning lifts northeast
during the day and up into the canadian maritimes by Wednesday
night. Precipitation shuts down across most of the area by late
morning early afternoon and perhaps ends as period of snow at
the coast. Even if the changeover to snow occurs a bit faster
than indicated in the city at the coast, limited duration of
precipitation on the backside of the low will limit any
accumulation. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 30s with
nw winds developing on the backside of the storm. Gust up to 20
mph develop late in the day and possibly linger into first half
of the night.

Cold air will follow for Wednesday night with lows in the teens
inland and around 20 at the coast. This is slightly below
normal.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Surface high pressure will build to our south on Thursday and
Friday. Meanwhile, an upper trough shifts through with some
shortwave energy Thursday night into Friday. Moisture looks
insufficient for any pcpn, so dry weather is expected. Highs a few
degrees below normal for Thursday, returning to near normal on
Friday. Ridging aloft will then keep the weekend dry with warming
temperatures.

Low pressure enters the great lakes region Sunday night, eventually
tracking through quebec on Tuesday. Some warm advection pcpn may
reach some of the northern zones Sunday night into Monday morning,
which could be in the form of a wintry mix. A cold front otherwise
approaches with increasing chances of rain during the afternoon and
night. Some timing differences still exist among the global models
with the cold front passage, so have capped pops at chance through
Tuesday morning. Rain chances otherwise diminish Tuesday afternoon
with dry weather likely returning Tuesday night. Temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday will remain above normal.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
A developing coastal low with move north towards the region this
morning, tracking just southeast of long island early on today,
and then into the canadian maritimes this evening.

Conditions expected to lower to ifr early this morning as
precipitation develops across region.

Expect all snow at kswf with lifr conds, which may be moderate at
times between 07z and 13z. Between 5 and 7 inches of snow expected.

Rain expected to develop for nyc nj metro terminals and kbdr after
midnight, likely mixing with snow towards daybreak, and then
changing to all snow after 11-13z. Ifr conditions with a quick
coating to 2 inches of slushy snow likely for nyc terminals, with 1
to 3 inches for kewr kteb kbdr during the morning push. Low
potential for these amounts to be about one inch higher, with lifr
conds.

Khpn likely to have a mix of rain snow early this morning, before
changing to all snow with lifr conds towards daybreak, with 2 to 4
inches of snow likely. Low potential for this amount to be about one
inch higher.

All rain expected for kisp kgon.

Precip taper off from W to E Wed morning into early afternoon, with
conditions improving toVFR.

E NE winds for coastal terminals less than 10 kt overnight, becoming
n nnw for all terminals towards daybreak. Winds become wnw with
gusts 20 to 25 kt Wed afternoon continuing into Wed eve push, likely
averaging just right of 310 magnetic.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Late tonight-Thursday night Vfr. Wnw winds g20-25kt on Thursday.

Friday Vfr. W-sw winds g20kt possible.

Saturday-Sunday Vfr.

Marine
Sca in effect for the ocean waters as seas remain 4-5 ft. Ocean
seas increase a bit more tonight. Flow returns to a NW direction
and begins to gust late on Wednesday.

Sca conditions continue on the ocean for Thursday through Friday
morning, then sub-advisory conditions are expected for a brief
period Friday afternoon and night. Winds and seas then pick up with
marginal advisory conditions on the ocean during Saturday and
Saturday night. A weaker pressure gradient then returns relatively
tranquil conditions for Sunday.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ctz005>008.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for nyz069-070.

Winter storm warning until noon est today for nyz067-068.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for njz002-004-
103>105-107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Jc dw
near term... Ds dw
short term... Ds dw
long term... Jc
aviation... Je nv
marine... Jc dw
hydrology... Jc dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi55 min NE 5.1 G 7 36°F 35°F1025.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi49 min E 6 G 7 34°F 32°F1026.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi49 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 35°F1026.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi52 min E 7.8 G 7.8 36°F 1 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi77 min ESE 9.7 G 14 43°F 41°F5 ft1025 hPa (-1.8)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi77 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 42°F4 ft1024.7 hPa (-1.8)41°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi49 min 36°F 35°F1025.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 48 mi49 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 34°F 1025.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY7 mi71 minE 410.00 miOvercast40°F39°F97%1025.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi74 minNNE 49.00 miLight Rain38°F36°F93%1025.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY18 mi71 minVar 410.00 miOvercast40°F39°F100%1025.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi75 minENE 910.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N6N5NW6N6E6E6SE4S6SE7SE9SE6CalmE4E4CalmE5E6E6E6E5CalmE4E5
1 day agoN10N7N9N10NE11NE14
G20
N12NE12NE12N7NE11N9NE10N5NE10N8NE7NE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN16
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Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:07 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:13 AM EST     7.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:38 PM EST     6.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.35.13.62.10.80.30.61.93.65.46.87.57.264.32.51-0-0.10.82.34.15.66.7

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:18 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:19 AM EST     7.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:44 PM EST     7.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.65.542.41.10.30.51.73.55.46.97.87.66.44.72.91.30.1-0.20.62.145.76.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.