Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:33PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:22 PM EST (01:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 742 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect through late Sunday night...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 742 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As developing low pressure approaches from the west, its associated warm front will lift to the north this evening, and then an associated strong cold front will move across Sunday morning as the strong low passes to the north. High pressure will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182328
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
628 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
As developing low pressure approaches from the west, its
associated warm front will lift to the north this evening, and
then an associated strong cold front will move across Sunday
morning as the strong low passes to the north. High pressure
will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold
front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week. Low
pressure will then move across on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Rain with the warm front has spread across much of the area this
evening. S winds along the coast are gradually increasing, and
think the strongest s-sw winds will occur after warm fropa
overnight as boundary layer temps rise and low level mixing
improves. Models continue to indicate h9 winds in the 50-60 kt
range, with a well-mixed boundary layer and also bands of
moderate to locally heavy showers capable of transporting most
of this momentum to the surface. High wind warnings were issued
for suffolk and coastal SE ct as a result, and wind advisories
expanded westward to include all coastal sections including
nyc. Strongest winds should occur overnight and especially
near across the forks of long island, though NAM timing is a
little sooner and its LLJ a little stronger than that of the
global models (up to 70 kt). Delayed the onset slightly to
account for lighter winds this evening.

Instability with bands of showers overnight will be limited to
the low to mid levels, with an h6 inversion limiting
deeper greater instability that would have otherwise led
to thunder.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Cold front will be moving across in two shots, the first marking
arrival of a dry slot and departure of the s-sw low level jet,
the second marking the arrival of strong w-nw winds after
passage of a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough along.

There could be a brief lull in winds between these two features,
but then w-nw winds likely to gust just over 45 mph with
passage of the second trough (with NAM indicating narrow band of
showers with the front), and then during the late morning and
afternoon via a tight pressure gradient and h8 winds up to 40-45
kt. Stronger winds should hang on a few hrs longer into the
daytime than model forecasts indicate, and NAM also indicates
stronger h8 winds arriving in the late afternoon after another
mid level shortwave passage; think winds will however start to
gradually diminish by that point, so while gusty NW winds will
continue into Sunday night, have not extended the advisory into
Sunday night.

After morning highs in the 50s, temps should gradually fall in
the afternoon, back into the 40s by late afternoon, then into
the 20s and 30s tonight. A few lake effect snow showers may
make it into the area late Sunday night especially just NW of
nyc.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes
east northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward
progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream
potent shortwave tracks across the great lakes region as it lifts
northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting
well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it
moves across the gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday,
operational GFS seems to be a deep strong outlier with regard to
closed low around the gulf states as the trough makes eastward
progress.

This upper trough weakens over the western atlantic Thursday, with
next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the
northeast by next weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east.

Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated
with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for
measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance
pops.

Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our
south in the Wednesday night Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears
to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing
close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model
consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge
builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast.

Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus.

However, this will need to be watched.

Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with
the shortwave, clipper low Saturday.

As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model MOS blend.

Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal
Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front
Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and
Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low
Saturday.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Thursday
A strong low pressure system approaches tonight sending a warm
front north of the terminals. A cold front follows early Sunday
morning with high pressure building behind it through Sunday
evening.

S flow has temporarily weakened this evening, but the
expectation is for the winds to increase overnight as the warm
front moves north. Gusts will return, initially 20-30 kt just
after midnight, increasing to 30-40 kt towards day break. Some
eastern terminals may see peak gusts 45-50 kt. Llws is also
forecast across eastern long island and southeast connecticut as
the cold front moves through. S-sw winds shift to the w-wnw
Sunday morning with gusts frequently 35-40 kt during the day.

The gusts will begin to weaken late in the afternoon and early
in the evening.

MainlyVFR conditions to start this evening with conditions
gradually becoming MVFR with steadier showers moving in
overnight. There may also be some brief localized ifr.

Conditions will improve toVFR Sunday morning behind the cold
front.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at
night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in
showers. SW winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
S-sw winds will increase to gale force later this evening, then
a strong low level jet with only a weak inversion at best
should allow storm force gusts to occur on the eastern
ocean sound bays, where a storm warning has been issued. Farther
west, winds should still gust to 35-45 kt, and a gale warning
remains in effect.

After a cold frontal passage Sunday morning, w-nw winds should
gust to 40-45 kt through the day, and fall below gale force on
the non-ocean waters after midnight.

Gusty NW W flow Monday will back around the SW Monday night and
Tuesday as high pressure passes to our south, then east. These
sw winds eventually shift around the N NW behind a cold front
Wednesday. Northerly winds persist Wednesday night and Thursday.

As for sea forecasts, rough conditions persist in the Monday and
Tuesday time frame due to strong winds tight pressure gradient.

Nearshore wave prediction system looked quite reasonable and was
followed. For Wednesday and Thursday, had to knock down sea
forecasts from wave watch iii as GFS appears to be an outlier with
regard to a wave of low pressure that approaches the waters from the
south southeast.

Hydrology
Rain with a warm frontal passage tonight, and then with bands of
moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong cold frontal
passage late tonight into Sunday morning, should cause no more
than local nuisance impacts. Total rainfall is expected to
range between 1 2 to 1 inch, highest NW of nyc.

Tides coastal flooding
Storm surge guidance for Sunday morning high tide may to be on
the low side given the strength of southerly winds expected tonight
into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. But typically, S sw
winds are not conducive to building surge.

There is a low probability of a surge of 1-2 ft Sunday morning.

If these surge levels develop, minor coastal impacts in a
strong SW W flow would be felt mainly across eastern portions of
the great south bay into moriches bay. Elsewhere any impacts
would be brief and localized. Statement issued to address this
potential.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind warning from midnight tonight to noon est Sunday for
ctz011-012.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for ctz005-006.

Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm est Sunday for
ctz007>010.

Ny... High wind warning from midnight tonight to noon est Sunday for
nyz078>081.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for nyz067>070.

Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm est Sunday for
nyz071>075-176>179.

Nj... Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for njz002-004-
103>108.

Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm est Sunday for
njz006.

Marine... Storm warning until noon est Sunday for anz330-340-345-350-353.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz335-338-355.

Synopsis... Goodman pw
near term... Goodman pw
short term... Goodman
long term... Pw
aviation... Ds
marine... Goodman pw
hydrology... Goodman pw
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 13 mi67 min WSW 21 G 27 53°F 46°F46°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 21 mi63 min SSW 16 G 21 53°F 1 ft47°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi52 min S 14 G 19 51°F 46°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi97 min SSW 14 G 16 56°F 2 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi92 min SW 25 G 33 59°F 58°F8 ft1003 hPa (-1.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi92 min SW 23 G 27 57°F 58°F7 ft1002 hPa (-1.5)48°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY7 mi26 minSW 14 G 2610.00 miLight Rain52°F46°F83%1002.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi29 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F83%1002.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY18 mi26 minSW 11 G 208.00 miLight Rain53°F50°F89%1002.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi30 minSW 1210.00 miLight Rain53°F48°F83%1002 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW8W6W6CalmE3W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7SW9
G19
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S11S11
G19
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1 day agoW11W12W11W8W12
G21
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2 days agoE4E3E3E4E4SE8SE9SE10SE10SE10S12S12S13SW6W9
G14
W8W9W17
G23
W12W15
G21
W11NW14
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:41 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:48 AM EST     7.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:15 PM EST     7.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.24.83.21.50.40.212.64.46.27.57.97.15.73.920.4-0.301.22.94.76.27

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:52 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:55 AM EST     8.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:21 PM EST     7.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.65.23.61.90.60.10.82.44.36.37.78.17.56.14.32.40.7-0.3-0.112.84.76.37.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.