Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:46PM Sunday September 24, 2017 4:44 AM EDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:57AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 359 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se late this morning. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 359 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the west into Monday, then slowly slides offshore as hurricane maria slowly tracks north, then northeast off the southeastern and mid-atlantic coasts through Wednesday. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on maria. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday night, then cross the area Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in behind the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240749
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
349 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the area through the first
half of the week. Meanwhile, hurricane maria is forecast to
track north and pass east of the carolinas on Wednesday before
getting kicked out to the east by an approaching cold front. The
front is forecast to move through the region Thursday, followed
by high pressure for the end of the week. Refer to the latest
advisories from the national hurricane center for the official
forecast on maria.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Patchy fog is possible this morning with light northerly winds,
clear skies, and increasing low-level moisture. The one
limiting factor is a strong subsidence inversion with high
pressure building aloft. Northerly winds at the top of the
boundary layer may mix some of the drier air aloft down to the
surface.

Otherwise, another very warm day across the region with a good
chance of record highs being met at multiple locations, ranging
from the 80s at the coast to the lower 90s across the interior.

Readings were several degrees above MOS on Saturday and will
continue that trend. See the climate section below for records.

There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches through
this evening due to increasing southerly swells from maria.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
There is the potential for areas of fog to develop tonight. The
nam is very aggressive with the low-level moisture beneath the
inversion, while the GFS is drier. These are typical known
biases and with this being the first night of return flow
conditions, prefer to only go patchy in nature. Still though,
the longer days and a humid airmass could result in a more
widespread event.

Warm heights aloft with a anomalous upper high centered over
the area will continue the string of unseasonably warm days
into Monday. However, an onshore flow will knock highs down
several degrees. In addition, humidity levels will creep up as
well. Airmass will be too stable to support any convection.

Swells from distant hurricane maria will likely produce a
high rip current risk on Monday.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
The highly amplified upper air pattern across the lower 48
begins to break down this period as the upper trough lifts out
across the northern plains and into and into eastern canada by
Thursday. Additional pacific shortwave energy eventually gets
loaded into the backside of the trough at the end of the week.

A cold front passes through the area Thursday with a reinforcing
shot of cooler air on Friday and a return to seasonable
temperatures, if not below by the weekend.

Hurricane maria will track slowly north through the week. The
global models are in all good agreement with taking the system
east of the outer banks of north carolina Wednesday before
it gets kicked out to the east by the aforementioned upper
trough and associated cold front. Refer to the latest
advisories from the national hurricane center for the official
forecast on maria.

Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably
warm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. There continues to be a
low chance of showers Tuesday night through Thursday as
moisture works in ahead of maria and the upper ridge break down
with the approach of the upper trough and cold front. High
pressure builds in for next weekend. In addition, areas of fog
and lows clouds will become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings due to a prolonged east flow. Northerly winds return
behind the cold frontal passage on Thursday.

Due to long period swells from maria, there is likely to be a
high rip current risk through the week.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure builds in from the west into tonight.

Highly likelyVFR through the TAF period. There is a very low
chance of MVFR-ifr ceilings and or visibilities at kgon early
this morning and an even lower, but non-zero chance at kisp as
well early this morning. There is also a low chance for MVFR fog
towards sunrise at kswf.

Light and variable winds become n-ne at under 10 kt by mid
morning at all terminals except kswf, where this should occur by
early afternoon. Seabreezes are then expected at all terminals
but kswf, starting around midday at ct terminals, early
afternoon kjfk kisp and mid-late afternoon elsewhere. Light and
variable winds return at all terminals late this
afternoon early this evening.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late tonight-Monday Most likelyVFR. There is a low chance
for MVFR-ifr conditions at eastern terminals and kswf late
tonight early Monday morning.

Monday night-Thursday MVFR or lower conditions and scattered
showers are possible.

Marine
Long period swells will produce seas of at least 5 feet (initially
over just southern portions) of the coastal ocean waters through at
least Thursday night. (except starting late this afternoon for the
coastal ocean waters W of fire island inlet). As a result now start
the small craft advisory for hazardous seas at 20z W of fire island
inlet (already ongoing east of there) and have extended the headline
in all 3 zones through the day on Monday.

A weak pressure gradient will remain over the waters through at
least Thursday, with winds around 10 kt or less through then. The
pressure gradient tightens Thursday night, and when coupled with
cold air advection, could result in winds Thursday night up to 15-
20kt with possibly some gusts of 25-30kt.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week.

Climate
The following are record high temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record high temperature forecast high temperature
----------------------------- -------------------------
central park... ... ..89 (1959) 91
laguardia... ... ... ..89 (1959) 90
kennedy... ... ... ... .88 (1970) 88
islip... ... ... ... ... 83 (2009) 85
newark... ... ... ... ..92 (1959) 93
bridgeport... ... ... .87 (1959) 86

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk from 8 am edt this morning through this
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 4 pm this
afternoon to 6 pm edt Monday for anz355.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Monday
for anz350-353.

Synopsis... Dw
near term... Dw
short term... Dw
long term... Dw
aviation... Maloit
marine... Maloit
hydrology... Dw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 13 mi44 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 70°F67°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi44 min N 1 G 1 66°F 71°F1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi29 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 62°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi44 min Calm G 1 69°F 71°F1017.9 hPa (+0.0)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi44 min N 5.1 G 7 66°F 72°F1017.1 hPa (+0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi74 min W 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 70°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi54 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 67°F4 ft1017.1 hPa (+0.0)56°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi54 min S 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 71°F4 ft1016.5 hPa (-0.0)67°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi44 min 73°F 71°F1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 48 mi44 min NW 5.1 G 6 73°F 1018 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY7 mi1.8 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist64°F63°F96%1016.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair64°F62°F93%1017.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY18 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair63°F61°F93%1016.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12N8N10N6N10NW13N12
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N10N11N8NW9NW6N3N4SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day agoN17
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2 days agoN12N10N9N13N13
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N14N9N6N9N9N11N9N10N11N14
G24
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N17
G24

Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:26 AM EDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:44 PM EDT     7.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.76.176.964.531.60.70.61.42.94.76.27.37.56.85.43.72.210.40.81.9

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:32 AM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.66.27.27.26.34.93.31.90.80.61.32.84.66.37.57.87.15.74.12.51.20.50.71.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.