Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:46PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 1:56 AM EDT (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 124 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Periods of rain and chance of tstms...then rain likely with chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning... Then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain at night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 124 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move slowly up the mid atlantic coast through Wednesday...pass southeast of long island Wednesday evening...and then dissipate east of new england later Wednesday night. A weakening cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday and Thursday night...then dissipating over the area Friday. Another cold front approaches from the north Friday night and Saturday...and then presses to the south Saturday night. The front then gradually lifts north as a warm front on Sunday...remaining to the south of long island...as high pressure builds across southeastern canada.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260318
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1118 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Weakening low pressure will move slowly up the mid atlantic
coast through Wednesday, pass southeast of long island Wednesday
evening, and then dissipate east of new england later Wednesday
night. A weakening cold front will approach from the northwest
Thursday and Thursday night, then also dissipate over the area
on Friday. Another cold front will approach from the north
Friday night and Saturday, then presses to the south Saturday
night. The front will then gradually lift north as a warm front,
pushing to the north of the area Monday. A cold front will then
move across Monday night, followed by weak high pressure
building in on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
Minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and
near term forecast trends.

Most storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 1/2 to 1 inch with
isolated higher amounts. Brief heavy downpours caused minor
flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Northeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are now decreasing.

Widespread minor tidal flooding occurred with the evening high
tides across the south shores of ny harbor and the back bays of
long island's atlantic south shore bays.

Otherwise, the main area of hvy rain with embedded tstms has
shifted further east along with the nose of the low lvl jet. The
main focus for heavier rain will shift east, mainly across long
island and southern ct overnight.

Low temps tonight will be in the lower 50s.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/
On Wednesday, the stacked low will be slowly moving south and
east of long island. Expect scattered showers to continue,
mainly in the morning and especially over long island and
southern ct, then tapering off in the afternoon.

The close proximity of the stacked low should keep low clouds
around through the day and possibly some patchy fog, with highs
mainly in the lower 60s.

As the upper low passes just to the SE Wed night, could see some
redevelopment of showers mainly across long island mainly after
midnight. Lows will again be in the 50s.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
Northern stream ridging builds over the area on Thursday keeping
things dry. However, underneath the associated subsidence inversion,
the lowest 100-150 hpa will be fairly saturated, so have increased
cloud cover and decreased temperatures on Thursday. For now
generally going 60-70 across the region, though there is some
potential these could be 5 to maybe even 10 degrees to warm.

A northern stream shortwave passes to the north Thursday night
warranting chance pops over NW 1/3 of the CWA and slight chance pops
elsewhere. With showalters progged to fall to 0 to2, have added
thunder to the forecast as well. Lows Thursday night should be
around 10 degrees above normal.

A northern northern stream shortwave passes by, a little closer
this time, on Friday, warranting chance pops everywhere. Showalter
indices warrant a chance of thunder.

Note, the GFS is faster than most other solutions with the
associated cold front, so used a non-gfs blend for timing the cold
front and precipitation. As a result, could see locations away from
the coast have highs from the mid 70s to around 80. As a result,
areas mainly west of the hudson could see capes in the afternoon of
around 1000 j/kg along with 40-50 kt of shear so some strong to
severe storms are possible there Friday afternoon.

The region is under quasi zonal flow Friday night-Saturday as
ridging builds to our south and a northern stream trough passes to
the north. Friday night should be dry, but could see some isolated-
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm by Saturday
afternoon/evening ahead of a backdoor cold front. Favored the faster
ecmwf timing of the front (based on historical superior ecmwf
handling of backdoor fronts vs. The gfs).

Deep layered ridging builds over the area Saturday night-Sunday
night, then the axis slides to the east on Monday. At the surface,
the back door front pushes well to the south by Sunday morning, then
slowly lifts to the north as a warm front, lifting to the north on
Monday. The surface warm front motion warrants a slight chance of
rain Sunday and a chance of rain Sunday night. There is then a
chance of showers Monday morning and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday, once solidly in the warm sector.

A vigorous northern stream trough approaches Monday night, then
lifts to the north on Tuesday, with its associated surface cold
front pushing through Monday night. As a result, have a chance of
thunderstorms Monday night, then a slight chance of showers Tuesday.

Temperatures Friday-Tuesday were based on the superblend, with NAM 2-
meter temperatures and a mix down from 975-925 hpa per bufkit
soundings added in on Friday. Temperatures should remain well above
normal during this time frame, with Saturday the warmest day - with
highs around 80 in the nyc metro.

Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/
Low pressure slowly moves up along the mid-atlantic coastline
tonight and over the region Wed afternoon into Wed night.

Heaviest rain will continue to move east of the nyc/nj metro
terminals... And is expected to slide through eastern terminals
through the overnight. Brief ifr conditions expected in heavy
rain showers. Generally expect ifr/lifr CIGS tonight... With vsby
gradually coming down to ifr overnight into early Wed morning.

Ifr CIGS expected to linger through the day Wednesday... With
gradual improvement to MVFR/vfr vsby.

East/northeast winds prevail. Strongest winds are shifting east
of nyc/nj metro terminals... With speeds of 15 to 20 kt and
gusts 25 to 30 kt for the eastern terminals. Winds subside and
back more to the NE after midnight late tonight. Llws possible
this evening with SE winds 45-50 kt at 2kft, for eastern
terminals overnight. Generally NE winds less than 10 kt on wed.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Saturday
Wednesday night Potential for lifr/vlifr in fog.

Thursday Ifr/lifr potential to start... With gradual
improvement toVFR.

Friday Chance of MVFR in showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Sca conditions occurring on all waters as expected. Winds on the
western ocean waters, western long island sound, and possibly ny
harbor could briefly peak at 35 kt this evening before
diminishing.

Winds should diminish overnight, with advy conditions abating on
the harbor/sound/bays by 06z. Lingering ocean swells above 5 ft
and also 1 ft above wavewatch and nwps are likely to continue
into at least Wed night.

A relatively relaxed pressure gradient Thursday-Sunday will keep
winds over the waters around long island to 15 kt or less.

However, gradually diminishing swells will keep seas over all or
parts of the coastal ocean waters at or above 5 ft through
Friday night. All waters should experience sub-advy conditions
Saturday and Sunday.

Hydrology
Total rainfall of 0.75 to 1.5 inches is expected through
Wednesday. The highest amounts are most likely to occur across
northeast new jersey, also across southern ct. Hourly rainfall
rates close to 1/2 inch per hour with the heaviest rain could
cause brief/localized poor drainage flooding.

No significant (0.5 inches or more) widespread rainfall is forecast
from Thursday through at least Monday. However, isolated strong
convection could produce locally heavy rainfall Friday and again on
Monday. In areas where this occurs, there is the potential for the
ponding of water on roadways and a very low chance of minor flooding
of known poor drainage areas.

Tides/coastal flooding
Widespread minor coastal flooding occurred across the lower
ny/nj harbor, the south shore bays of western long island
including queens and brooklyn this evening; with locations
along the western long island sound expected to experience the
same through the midnight high tides.

Minor coastal flooding thresholds may be briefly and locally be
exceeded along the southern bays of western long island with the
Wednesday morning high tide. Right now at most it would appear
that a statement could be needed for southern nassau.

Minor coastal flooding is possible with Wednesday night's high
tide cycle. Best chances for minor inundation will be at the
south shore back bays of nassau and queens, but a statement
could be needed for other areas as minor thresholds have a
chance to just be reached in a few spots. Only 1/3 to 3/4 of a
foot of surge is needed to reach minor flood thresholds wed
night.

In addition, the elevated water levels combined with a
prolonged period of 5-9 ft breaking surf tonight into Thu will
result in beach erosion issues and may cause some localized dune
toe erosion during the high tides tonight into Wed night.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Wednesday for ctz009-010.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Wednesday for nyz071-073-
078-177.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for nyz080-
179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for anz330-335-
338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Goodman/maloit
near term... Gc
short term... Goodman
long term... Maloit
aviation... Nv
marine... Gc/goodman/maloit
hydrology... Gc/goodman/maloit
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 13 mi56 min ENE 23 G 27 54°F 55°F54°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 21 mi41 min ENE 16 G 21 52°F 3 ft51°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi38 min NE 11 G 17 53°F 1010.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi38 min E 9.9 G 17 52°F 48°F1008.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi38 min NE 11 G 15 51°F 51°F1011.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi41 min ENE 18 G 21 50°F 3 ft50°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi66 min E 21 G 27 53°F 47°F11 ft1005.6 hPa (-3.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi66 min NE 14 G 19 51°F 48°F10 ft1007.8 hPa (-1.7)51°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi44 min 53°F 50°F1008.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 48 mi38 min NE 20 G 23 53°F 1009 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY7 mi2 hrsE 15 G 248.00 miLight Rain57°F57°F100%1010.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi63 minENE 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1009 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY18 mi2 hrsE 8 G 197.00 miLight Rain56°F55°F97%1011.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi64 minNE 1210.00 miLight Rain55°F51°F87%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9NE7NE10NE11NE9NE9NE12
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1 day agoN3N4CalmCalmNE3CalmSE3E4E4E4SE6E6S5S7SE7SE6E8E6E6E5E7E7E7E8
2 days agoN6N5N6N6N6N7N9NE9N7N1145S10S10S10S9S11S10S7S6S4SW7S4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
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Wed -- 05:35 AM EDT     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 11:42 AM EDT     7.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:51 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.26.74.52.20.3-0.9-10.12.14.36.37.67.96.95.131.1-0.2-0.60.124.36.58.1

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     8.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.67.252.70.6-0.8-1.1-0.21.74.16.37.88.37.45.63.51.5-0-0.7-0.11.646.48.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.