Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:43PM Monday August 21, 2017 9:27 PM EDT (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:51AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 625 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 625 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday and passes through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Hollow, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220010
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
810 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches
from the west Tuesday and passes through Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in behind the cold
frontal passage on Wednesday and remains in control through the
end of the week with a much drier and cooler airmass.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Scattered convection over eastern pa will gradually approach the
lower hudson valley this evening. However, loss of heating
should help limit intensity and coverage. Will continue to show
mainly slight chance pops with low chance for the western half
of orange county. The hrrr and 3-km NAM support this activity
dissipating through 03z.

While there will be a mid-level shortwave, do not foresee any
convection after midnight as the best lift may stay to our south
and west. High resolution models support this idea, with any
convection staying to the south. Otherwise, high pressure will
continue moving offshore. A mav nam MOS blend looked good for
low temperatures, and muggy conditions should prevail with
dewpoints around 70.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The shortwave should still be over the tri state area during the
morning, so cannot completely rule out a shower storm during this
time. In the afternoon, subsidence behind the shortwave will work
against convective development. A surface trough over the interior
could still provide a focus for convergence. Will go with a slight
chance to chance for showers and storms, with the higher chances
over the interior. Some thunderstorms may be strong to marginally
severe with bulk shear of about 30 kt and sufficient CAPE values
forecast.

850mb temps are forecast to be around 18-19c which should translate
to high temperatures in the low-mid 90s for the typically warmest
spots across the city, NE nj and adjacent areas given the expected
cloud cover and wind flow. With winds at a southerly component and
850mb dewpoint temps forecast at mostly 14-17c, chances of mixing
out and having surface dewpoints drop more than a degree or two in
the afternoon are slim. Heat index values are therefore expected to
range in the 90s to around 100. With Wednesday's heat index values
expected to fall short of all advisory criteria, will issue a heat
advisory for the 1-day heat index criteria of 100. Will go with the
advisory over the city, southern westchester county and parts of ne
nj.

A cold front moves into the region Tuesday night with better chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area. CAPE will drop due to
the loss of daytime heating but lift and shear increase ahead of the
front. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
once again. The steering flow should be quick enough to mitigate
chances of flash flooding, but with high moisture content around,
minor nuisance urbanized flooding is possible.

There is a high risk of rip currents at all atlantic ocean
beaches on Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The cold front will slowly push east of the area on Wednesday with
lingering showers and perhaps a few embedded tstms mainly across the
eastern half of long island and southern ct. Skies clear Wed evening
with a much cooler airmass arriving.

Canadian high pressure builds into the region Thursday through early
next week, providing dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will
remain below normal as highs only reach the 70s to near 80 each day.

There could be some isold showers tstms on Sunday as an upper trough
moves through the northeast. Most model guidance has the upper level
energy passing to the north of the CWA so have not included in the
current forecast, however this may change in subsequent
forecasts.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period. An isolated shower or tstm
is possible early tonight from the nyc metros north west.

Bigger forecast problem centers around late night reductions in
cigs vsby. Think kisp kgon kswf most likely to see reductions
to at least MVFR, but cannot totally rule it out at the the nyc
metros some time between 09z-12z give or take an hour.

South to southwest winds diminish tonight, and slowly increase
tue morning. Then expect both stronger southerly coastal sea
breezes and SW inland flow Tuesday afternoon, with gusts AOA 20
kt likely.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi39 min SW 13 G 15 78°F 76°F1019.4 hPa
44069 23 mi57 min SW 16 G 19 77°F 79°F75°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi45 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 75°F1019 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi39 min 79°F 75°F1019.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi39 min SSW 9.9 G 12 1020.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi37 min SSW 16 G 19 77°F 76°F3 ft1019.3 hPa (-0.0)72°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi39 min 80°F 76°F1019.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 40 mi39 min SW 9.9 G 12 78°F 78°F1019.3 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi45 min SSW 8 G 13
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi39 min WSW 11 G 13 76°F 78°F1019.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi37 min SW 12 G 14 75°F 74°F3 ft1020.3 hPa (-0.5)73°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY10 mi34 minSW 1110.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1020 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY20 mi91 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F70°F82%1019.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi91 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds77°F68°F74%1018.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi36 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1020.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi36 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F72%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3W5W7SW7W7S12SW14SW10S12SW15SW13SW11SW10SW11
1 day agoSW6W5SW3SW6W5W45NW4NW6W7NW9
G15
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2 days agoSW7SW7W5W6W4W5W3W4W4NW4N4N7CalmCalm3W7S10SW14
G20
SW13SW13SW11SW9SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Cold Spring Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:30 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT     8.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 05:46 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:45 PM EDT     8.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.16.64.62.60.8-0.3-0.30.92.85.178.18.16.95.23.21.40.1-0.20.72.54.86.98.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:04 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.200.40.91.10.70.30-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.71.10.90.50.1-0.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.