Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 7:53 PM EDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 3:55AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 715 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Showers likely early this evening, then slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning. Chance of showers late. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 715 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the delmarva region will ride up across the area tonight, with a trailing cold front also passing through late. The low will move into new england on Thursday. Another low will move through on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Saturday. High pressure will then be in control early to mid next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Hollow, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252308
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
708 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the DELMARVA region will ride up across the
area tonight, with a trailing cold front also passing through
late. The low will move into new england on Thursday. Another
low will move through on Friday, followed by a cold frontal
passage late Saturday. High pressure will then be in control
early to mid next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Pops were increased with this update for the early evening hours
across LI and ct based on latest obs and trends. Chances for
showers across the entire area drop off soon after this, then
there should be a return of scattered to numerous showers later
tonight as the weak sfc low moves across and takes a cold front
with it, aided by lift from an accompanying negatively-tilted
mid level shortwave trough.

Meanwhile, with the pressure gradient relaxing tonight and
abundant low level moisture remaining, expect a potential for
dense fog before cold fropa, particularly across long island and
southern ct, where both narre hrrr time-lagged ensembles are
flagging highest probabilities of vsby less than 1 4sm and 1sm,
respectively. Have already issued spss for at least locally
dense fog, and with light surface winds and a loss of turbulent
mixing potential at the top of the mixed layer, may very well
need to issue an advisory for some areas within the next hour or
two.

Iso sct thunderstorms should push north through SE ct early this
evening. Winds aloft are weak, so not expecting any strong
surface gusts with these storms.

Fcst low temps tonight are on the warmer side of the mos
envelope, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Gusty wnw flow expected along with mostly sunny skies for the
most part after the mid level shortwave passes through. A closed
mid level low passing just to the north may help provide enough
lift for sct-bkn CU development in the afternoon, more so
inland.

With downslope flow and mixing to between 875-850 mb expect
high temps to approach 70 in NE nj and rise well into the 60s
most elsewhere.

Thu night should start mostly clear, then become mostly cloudy
overnight as another low begins to approach from the sw. Low
temps should be in the 40s and lower 50s per MOS blend.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Models in good agreement with the closed low over the central
plains tracking eastward through the deep south on Thursday.

This then lifts north toward the region Friday ahead of the next
northern stream trough digging into the mississippi river
valley on Thursday. At the surface, associated low pressure
lifts northeast towards the region on Friday. This is a
progressive system, with what looks like a quick hit of moderate
rain (1 4 to 3 4 inch, locally 1 inch). Still uncertainty on
where the axis of the heaviest rain will be, due to differences
in track of low pressure and consequently placement of best
lift instability axis.

Models then in general agreement with partial phasing of the
southern energy and digging northern stream trough to develop
a deep trough over the great lakes into the NE us this weekend.

Some spread in intensity amplitude of this trough, but general
consensus on its axis moving through Sunday. At the surface, an
associated cold front moves through late Sat sat evening, with a
couple of weak troughs moving through Sunday. Seasonable temps
on Saturday in WAA ahead of the front, dropping back down to a
few degrees below seasonable on Sunday with cold pool and
instability cloud cover.

In its wake, deep layered ridging builds in for early next week,
with potential for unseasonable warmth by midweek as ridging
takes a bermuda position. Temps moderate to seasonable on Monday
and then above seasonable on Tuesday. Potential for the first
real warm spell of the season mid to late week, with high temps
in the 80s for nyc nj metro and interior, and well into the 70s
along the coast.

Aviation 23z Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure tracks from the mid-atlantic coast this evening to
northern maine by early Thursday afternoon.

Ifr or less through at least 06z. Light rain drizzle continues
through then. Cannot rule out some pockets of moderate rain
through midnight. Fog will continue to overspread the
terminals this evening. Expect the fog to remain over the area
until the winds become westerly (by around 08-10z).

Conditions improve toVFR from 12z-15z from W to e.

Winds become light and variable throughout early this evening
and remain so into the overnight hours. Winds become westerly
late tonight early Thursday morning (08-10z).

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 48°F 47°F1005.7 hPa (-1.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi53 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi53 min 54°F 47°F1005.1 hPa (-1.1)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi53 min SE 5.1 G 6 53°F 1005.1 hPa (-1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi43 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 48°F 46°F1004.5 hPa47°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi53 min 55°F 49°F1004.3 hPa (-1.2)
MHRN6 40 mi53 min ENE 6 G 6
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 40 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 53°F 49°F1005.4 hPa (-0.9)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi53 min SE 4.1 G 6 55°F 49°F1005.8 hPa (-1.5)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi63 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 44°F11 ft1004.9 hPa (-1.3)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi53 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 2 ft

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY10 mi60 minSSE 50.75 miFog/Mist54°F54°F100%1005 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY20 mi57 minSSE 51.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F55°F100%1005.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi57 minE 50.15 miFog55°F55°F100%1004.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi62 minESE 30.25 miFog53°F53°F100%1004.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi62 minNE 81.50 miFog/Mist54°F52°F93%1004.6 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11SE12E9
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1 day agoS5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE8S12S7S15S17S15S17SE12SE14SE12SE10
2 days agoSW11SW7SW5W3W3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmN4N6NE6E9E4SE11SE12E7SE11SE10SE9SE12S11S7

Tide / Current Tables for Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Cold Spring Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM EDT     7.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:39 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT     7.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.20.90.30.723.75.56.97.57.26.14.62.91.30.30.112.64.56.47.67.775.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:48 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:50 PM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.510.90.50.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.2-0.10.20.810.60.30.1-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.