Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sands Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 6:26 AM EDT (10:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 11:24PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 348 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers with isolated tstms early, then showers likely with scattered tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 348 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the waters this evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sands Point, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.75     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 270939
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
539 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold frontal passage occurs tonight. A bermuda high sets up
Wednesday night. Then a frontal system passes north of the
region Thursday through Friday night. A cold front approaches
Saturday and moves across Sunday into Sunday night. The front
may linger south of the region early next week with otherwise
weak high pressure returning.

Near term through tonight
Upr lvl low shows up on stlt E of detroit this mrng. The system
will continue to track ewd today, then drift newd tngt. The
associated cool front tracking across oh will reach the CWA tngt
and pass offshore by sunrise wed. All of the models are in good
agreement with this soln.

Radar indicates shwrs and tstms still firing from sern pa to nj.

Water vapor suggests the dynamics are sufficient for this to
continue thru the mrng and expand into the swrn portion of the
fcst area thru 12z. The nam, GFS and ECMWF all support this
scenario.

After the first round of shwrs and embedded tstms this mrng,
lapse rates steepen as the h5 trof axis approaches, and with a
120kt jet streak passing thru, isold-sct shwrs and tstms are
fcst today before ending this eve as subsidence develops.

The nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates up to h85 indicate a
potential downburst scenario with the deepest convection. In
addition, around 1500 j kg of SBCAPE progged by the NAM is
balanced by a BRN around 35 and an EL blw 30k ft could allow for
mini supercells. This would produce a hail threat, particularly
with any dry air intrusion abv h7 which the NAM predicts.

The limiting factor for TSTM development this aftn, especially
the SRN half of the cwa, is the amount of subsidence in the wake
of convection this mrng which could suppress later development.

Mainly clr in the wake of the upr trof tngt similar to the
current stlt over the midwest.

Temps were a blend of guidance which was in good agreement.

There is a mdt risk for rip current development today.

Short term Wednesday
Despite very steep low lvl lapse rates, subsidence should keep
the area dry. There could be some flat cumulus, however with
condensation pres deficits around 40, even this may be
difficult, especially away from any terrain enhancement. Despite
the cool airmass aloft, deep mixing will allow for highs to be
only a few degrees blw average. A blend of guidance was used for
this.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The jet lifts north of the region and stays north of the region
midweek going through much of the weekend. It starts to move farther
south into the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, before
lifting back north of the region early next week.

The mid and upper level flow transitions to more of a zonal flow mid
into late week and then transitions to more of a ridging pattern
going into the weekend. Shortwave approaches for second half of
weekend, presenting more of a trough pattern and SW flow aloft,
before returning to a quasi-zonal flow early next week.

High pressure moves off into the western atlantic, building
Wednesday night, and then slowly drifting farther out to sea through
Thursday night. Meanwhile, a warm front moves north of the great
lakes and into northern new england Thursday into Thursday night.

There is a trailing cold front to the west that looks to weaken
Thursday night before moving northward as a warm front Friday into
Friday night. A cold front from the west approaches Saturday and
moves across Sunday into Sunday night. Possibly this could get
delayed as shown by the ecmwf, hence the longer time window
stated for its passage.

The frontal boundary of the weakening cold front Thursday night into
Friday is forecast to be close enough to warrant a chance of a
shower or thunderstorm. The chance continues into Friday night. The
next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be this weekend.

Another chance but only slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
is forecast for early next week with frontal boundary possibly
lingering not too far away to the south of the region.

Temperatures start off near normal Wednesday night and Thursday but
then trend warmer for the rest of the forecast period. It will be
getting warmer and more humid. The temperatures will average about 3-
5 degrees above normal.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period. A trough of low pressure
passes across the terminals late this afternoon and evening.

Light winds should continue to back to the W by 12z at city
terminals, then gradually become southerly at 10 kt or less.

Winds veer to the SW by late afternoon and evening, 10-15 kt,
then to the w-wnw overnight around 10 kt.

Showers early this morning with brief reduced visibility to MVFR,
10-11z over nyc terminals, and 10-13z long island and southern
connecticut terminals. A shower thunderstorm is also possible
this afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 1 mi42 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 64°F 56°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi39 min N 7 G 8.9 63°F 65°F1016.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 18 mi39 min 62°F 68°F1016.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi39 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 1017.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi39 min 62°F 71°F1016.3 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi39 min E 4.1 G 4.1
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi39 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 61°F 73°F1015.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi37 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 67°F1 ft1016.4 hPa (+1.2)57°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 37 mi39 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 1016 hPa
44069 37 mi72 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 75°F58°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW1
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NW1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY9 mi36 minN 05.00 miRain63°F57°F84%1016.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY13 mi36 minN 02.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist61°F59°F93%1016.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi36 minNNW 77.00 miRain63°F57°F84%1017.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi4.5 hrsWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F59°F90%1014.9 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ16 mi36 minSE 35.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F59°F94%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW8NW5NW8NW10NW10
G17
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SW13S13
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S12S11S9S7S7S5SW5SW7NW15
G22
NE5N4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm4W7W6SW9SW10
G17
S14N3S10S8S9S7S6E4W9NW17
G22
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N9N5NW7NW5NW6
2 days agoNE3NW8CalmNW7NW9NW19
G26
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W12NW7NW4N7N7NW6NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Davids Island, New York
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Davids Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:27 AM EDT     8.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:17 PM EDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:38 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.77.68.38.37.55.631-0.2-0.8-0.51.13.76.17.47.87.66.54.220.70.101

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:04 AM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:31 PM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.300.30.81.10.80.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.4-0.10.10.5110.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.