Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:35PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:18 PM EST (23:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 1:34AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 549 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 549 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through Sunday. A frontal boundary will slowly move across late Sunday night into Tuesday morning, with weak areas of low pressure tracking along it. An arctic front will pass Wed night. High pres builds in from the W on thanksgiving.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 172047
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
347 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the waters through Sunday with a
weak warm front approaching Sunday night. A slow moving cold
front will drift south of the region on Monday, followed by the
passage of a weak offshore low on Tuesday. An arctic airmass
will likely build in for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
A cold front over updates new york this evening will work south
and east this evening, dissipating as it passes through later
tonight. It will be a dry cold frontal passage followed by high
pressure building east from the ohio valley.

For the most part, it will be mostly cloudy tonight with some
breaks early this evening before mid level warm advection clouds
approach from the sw. This will likely result in some fluctuation
in temperatures (radiative) with diminishing NW winds and
increasing cloud cover. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower
30s, except the mid 30s nyc metro.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
A progressive flow at the base of an upper trough over eastern
canada will send a series of weak frontal waves from the mid
mississippi valley northeast Sunday through Sunday night. Warm
advection coinciding with upper jet dynamics may allow for some
light precipitation to break out across portions of the lower
hudson valley in the afternoon, which gradually works southeast
Sunday night.

Should the precipitation arrive early enough, there is enough
dry air for some light snow across portions of the lower hudson
valley and interior southwest ct. However, weak warm advection
as the high moves offshore Sunday is forecast to warm the
boundary layer enough for a transition over to light rain
during the night. Any accumulation of snow should be light.

Advisory level snows are not expected.

Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

There will be some fall off Sunday evening with temperatures
leveling off or slowly rising for the second half of the night.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A slow moving cold front will move sewd thru the area on mon. The
models suggest lgt pcpn, mainly in the form of rain. There could be
pockets of moderate pcpn N of the cold front along the mid lvl
front, so this will need to be watched for a quick dusting of snow
interior late in the day.

As the h5 trof reaches the area and shortwave energy reaches the
front, a weak low is progged to spin up then track newd. All of the
modeling indicates a band of pcpn sweeping thru the cwa. Pops have
been increased to 50 percent. The cold air looks sufficient to be
mainly snow, especially away from the coast.

Fair wx Wed with the CWA between systems. The arctic front however
arrives Wed ngt. The GFS and ECMWF both agree on this timing.

Although the models are dry, some snow shwrs cannot be ruled out.

Pops may need to be included in later forecasts.

Dry wx fcst for thanksgiving thru Sat with a 1040 or so high
building in. Temps well blw average on thanksgiving, then moderating
a bit each day thereafter. Rain possible Sat ngt as a pacific sys
approaches.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure will slowly build from the nw. Bkn-ovc045VFR CIGS now
look to continue into this evening. Skies should then clear briefly
for a time later tonight before a lowering mid level cloud deck
arrives late tonight into Sunday morning.

Wnw winds should diminish this evening, then veer nw-n overnight and
n-ne daytime Sunday.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday afternoon LoweringVFR cigs. Some light snow possible
at kswf toward evening.

Sunday night-Monday night MVFR or lower conds possible in
rain or wintry mix. NW winds g15-20kt on Monday.

Tuesday MVFR or lower conds possible in rain or wintry mix
early, then becomingVFR. NW winds g15-20kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday Vfr. W winds 10-15g20kt, shifting NW at night with
arctic cold fropa.

Thursday Vfr. NW winds 15g25kt.

Marine
Sca cancelled for all ocean zones.

Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Mon thru wed, then an arctic front
will bring SCA and possible gales Wed ngt into thu. Winds and
seas then fall blw SCA lvls on fri.

Hydrology
Light QPF amounts of 1 4" or less are possible Sunday night
into Tuesday. No hydrologic issues are expected through
Saturday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc dw
near term... Dw
short term... Dw
long term... Jmc
aviation... Goodman
marine... Jmc dw
hydrology... Jmc dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi30 min 50°F
44069 27 mi63 min WNW 9.7 G 12 46°F 43°F32°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi36 min WSW 4.1 G 7 45°F 52°F1022.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi30 min 45°F 50°F1023.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi30 min W 16 G 20 46°F 1024 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi28 min WNW 21 G 25 47°F 52°F3 ft1023.9 hPa35°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi30 min 45°F 48°F1023.6 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi30 min W 12 G 18
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi30 min WNW 13 G 17 46°F 47°F1025.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi30 min WNW 8 G 9.9 45°F 52°F1022.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi28 min WNW 19 G 27 48°F 55°F4 ft1023.3 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi25 minW 1110.00 miOvercast45°F30°F56%1023.2 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi22 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F28°F58%1022.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi27 minW 9 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F32°F58%1023.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi27 minWSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F30°F54%1023.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi22 minW 810.00 miOvercast46°F30°F54%1022.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi27 minno data10.00 miOvercast45°F30°F56%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W10W10W8W9W6W9W8W6W8W9W6W7W7NW10NW8NW12
G20
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1 day agoNE9NE12
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2 days agoN9N8N10N10NE9N8N7N7NE6N7NE4E4E5NE7E9NE7NE9NE9NE9NE7NE11NE9NE10E12

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Oyster Bay Harbor
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Sat -- 12:15 AM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:19 AM EST     7.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:44 PM EST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:40 PM EST     7.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.42.43.85.26.47.176.14.93.62.41.61.423.24.766.876.35.13.82.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:43 AM EST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:09 PM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:28 PM EST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.200.10.50.90.70.30-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.3-0.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.