Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:02PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 8:47PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 354 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Tuesday through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog this evening. Areas of drizzle this evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening, then 1 to 3 nm late.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 354 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west tonight, slowly crossing the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 232138
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
538 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
Strong high pressure continues to pull away from the new england
coast. A slow moving frontal system approaches late Monday night,
impacting the region Tuesday into early Wednesday with strong
winds gusts and potentially heavy rain. The frontal system
slowly moves east of the area Wednesday night with brief high
pressure following through the end of the week. A cold front
then merges with a developing coastal low Saturday night into
Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
With upper level ridge passage clouds will dominate beginning
tonight. Complex frontal system over the ohio and tennessee
valleys will draw closer tonight. With well established moist
southerly flow ahead of the front expect areas of patchy fog
along with drizzle in some locations. Lift is shallow and weak
overnight, except after 6z in far western zones when showers
begin to move in.

Temperatures remain well above normal tonight due to clouds and
warm air advection. A model blend was used for temperatures.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Nwp guidance is in good agreement through Tue night.

A vigorous pac shortwave will continue to dig the longwave
trough and gets to the gulf coast by Tuesday night. The first
feature that will drive surface weather is a low level jet with
high pws for this time of year. This will result in periods of
rain, with embedded heavier showers and gusty winds. Some cape
in model profiles suggest few rumbles of thunder on Tuesday.

The second feature which will drive any convective rain will be
the approaching frontal system for Tuesday night, with models
indicating the best potential for widespread rainfall amounts
above 2 inches to be east of new york city. With amplification
of the longwave trough the frontal system is indicated by nwp
models to slow and track very slowly across the region Tue night
in the longitudinally oriented steering flow. Trend with this
update has been to continue to slow the system's progression
through Tue night which would only serve to increase rainfall
amounts for eastern sections.

The following potential hazards Tue tue night:
heavy rain: the slow movement of the front, deep lift, weak
instability, and interaction with an increasingly moist and
tropical airmass (+3 to 4 std) signal potential for multiple
bands of heavy rain as weak waves lift north along the front.

The higher resolution WRF based models continue to indicate the
potential for a localized swath of 3-5 inches. This looks to be
a credible threat based on synoptic pattern, but location timing
is very much uncertain based on front and frontal wave timing
and location. Would also like to see additional support of this
in some other hi-res models. See hydrology section for
associated flooding threat.

Strong winds: a wind advisory is in effect for most of our ct
zones, along with coastal zones in ny. A 45-55 kt 925 hpa llj
moves overhead Tuesday into Tue night. The GFS bufkit soundings
indicating a 12 hr period of southerly winds gusts of 30 to 40
mph, with potential for any low topped convective line S ahead
of the cold front being able to drag down localized 45-55 mph
wind gusts to the surface. SPC has our area in a slight risk
with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Not seeing the best
low level lapse rates and 0-1 km shear, so not all that bullish
on tornadic activity, with later shifts needing to further
inspect.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
A slow moving upper trough will maintain significant moisture
advection in broad, nearly unidirectional southerly flow into at
least the early portion of Wednesday. Primary update to the
extended forecast was to slow the departure of the surface front
and associated precipitation, mainly across portions of
connecticut and long island. Ensemble forecasts still suggest
some uncertainty with regards to end time of precipitation,
though in general rates should taper off from west to east
through the evening. Depending on how quickly rainfall ends,
adequate mixing in the afternoon and evening with modest west-
northwest flow may support a few gusts.

High pressure then builds through the remainder of the week with a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity, though with
some subtle moderation and warming to the air mass as the week
progresses.

Meanwhile, a long wave upper trough will develop and slowly push
eastward, allowing strong moisture advection again into Sunday. The
increasing difluence aloft will aid in the development of a
coastal low, which is then expected to merge with the frontal
system, increasing chances of rain across the area. At the
moment, the exact timing, accumulations and rates of any
precipitation remain uncertain but the system will continue to
be monitored.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
A slow moving cold front will approach the region tonight but
not pass through the region until Tuesday night.

MVFR returns this evening with patchy drizzle developing.

Showers become more widespread from west to east after 06z with
MVFR ifr cigs.

With the approach of a low level jet, showers with embedded
thunder are likely Tuesday. The rain will be heavy at times
accompanied by strong wind gusts, especially near the coast.

Compression and low level wind shear are likely, mainly ssw
45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals.

Se winds increasing near 15kt with gusts to 25kt possible this
evening, especially near the coast (nyc and LI terminals). Wind
increases tonight with gusts becoming more frequent around 25kt.

Some gusts 30-40kt possible after 12z Tuesday, especially the nyc
terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 6 mi53 min SE 9.7 G 12 68°F 1 ft63°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi42 min SE 9.7 G 14 69°F 62°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi42 min S 12 G 21 69°F 66°F1019.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi42 min SE 6 G 8 67°F 66°F1019.7 hPa
44069 27 mi42 min SSE 12 G 16 66°F 63°F66°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi42 min 69°F 66°F1019.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi42 min SSE 15 G 22 68°F 1019.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi82 min SE 16 G 18 67°F 65°F3 ft1018.7 hPa (-1.6)64°F
MHRN6 37 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 15
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi42 min 67°F 66°F1018.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi42 min SSE 11 G 15 67°F 64°F1019.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi42 min SE 6 G 8.9 66°F 66°F1020.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi82 min SE 14 G 16 66°F 65°F2 ft1020 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi79 minSSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F62°F84%1020 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi76 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F61°F81%1019.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi81 minSE 1410.00 miOvercast66°F64°F94%1020 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi81 minSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F62°F73%1019.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi76 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F63°F87%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmN3CalmCalmCalmE4S10S11S13S11S10SE13SE12SE11
G20
SE13SE11SE14
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S7S7S8S7S8S7S6S3SE3
2 days agoCalmN3NW3CalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmN4N3N6N5N3W44SW8S7S10S9SW8SW8SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Oyster Bay Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:09 AM EDT     7.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.26.67.36.95.84.22.71.50.91.12.23.95.677.77.66.54.93.21.80.70.41.12.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:05 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.30.70.90.60.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.20.50.90.80.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.