Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mill Neck, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:38 AM EDT (05:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1215 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1215 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move slowly offshore overnight as a warm front approaches from the south and west. A cold front approaches Thursday and passes through the waters Thursday night. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mill Neck, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230518
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
118 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure continues to slowly move offshore overnight as a
warm front approaches from the south and west. A cold front
approaches from the midwest Thursday, then passes through the
area Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region for
Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the
region late Saturday into Sunday. The front will stall to the
south of the region Monday with a wave of low pressure passing
through Monday night. High pressure returns for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Based on latest radar trends and development of additional
showers in the warm front forcing, adjusted probabilities
overnight and into Thursday morning. Also, temperatures and dew
points were mainly adjusted upward overnight as warm advection
increases across the region, along with cloud cover.

Additionally, a return to onshore flow is quickly increasing
low level moisture across the area with dew points slowly
increasing along the coastal areas.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Early morning showers will become isolated by afternoon as the
warm advection wanes. Any rain in the morning should be on the
light side.

The potential for a round of more significant convection arises
during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Thursday.

An upper low north of the great lakes on Thursday will track
ese, sending height falls into the region. This coupled with
moistening low-levels will destabilize the airmass. Their are
mixed signals from the guidance during this period as to whether
all the ingredients will come together at just the right time
to erode a low-level cap and overcome dry air in a deep-layered
westerly flow aloft. Additionally, the best dynamics will
reside north of the area. Mid level lapse rates do steepen to
around 7-8 deg c km and 0-6 km bulk shear is around 50 kt, which
will support hail in any stronger storms that develop. Href
members show varying solutions with most in the camp of the
convection being scattered in nature. There is also the question
as to whether the shear is sufficient to maintain a cold pool
to push through the maritime airmass. So yes, there could be a
few strong and or severe thunderstorms, but that should mainly
be to the north and west of nyc. The convection will likely
dissipate as it approaches the coast. The best timing looks to
be between 6 and 10 pm, from west to east.

Warm advection during the first half of the day will result in
mostly cloudy skies, but there should be some breaks in the
afternoon. This will also be a factor into how much we can
destabilize.

Gusty s-sw winds ahead of the front will get up to 25 mph,
mainly near the coast.

Highs will be nearly seasonable levels, in the upper 60s at the
coast, to the mid 70s north and west of nyc.

Cold front passes through between 10 pm to 1 am Thursday night
with gusts NW up to 25 mph developing toward daybreak.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
High pressure builds across the region on Friday and most of the day
on Saturday, so expected dry conditions with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s on Friday and upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday. A
cold front will then approach the region Saturday evening and
overnight, bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The front should push south on Sunday keeping the area under a
slight and chance probabilities of showers Sunday and into memorial
day. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
temperatures on memorial day in the mid to upper 70s.

Dry conditions return on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will start out in
the low 70s then warm up into the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure just offshore moves farther out to sea tonight.

Vfr tonight with winds at 10kt or less.

For today, a few showers possible within a few hours either
side of daybreak, but mostlyVFR. Tstms and sub-vfr conds
possible late aftn early evening. Winds becoming S and
increasing. Winds shift to the W aft tngt.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Late tonight MostlyVFR. Chc MVFR ifr with shra TSTM in the
evening.

Friday-Friday night Vfr. NW gusts 20-25kt during the day.

Saturday MostlyVFR, except chance of MVFR or lower
in showers thunderstorms late day and evening.

Sunday MostlyVFR. Slight chance shra MVFR.

Monday A chance of shra and MVFR.

Marine
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

A southerly flow ahead of a cold front Thursday night may allow
for ocean seas to build to marginal SCA levels, with seas then
falling below 5 feet Friday as a northern flow develops behind
the cold front. Winds and gusts are expected to be near or just
below SCA levels Thursday night as mixing will be limited with
a low level inversion in place.

Gusts on Friday may approach 25 to 30 kt briefly in a gusty
northerly flow. Friday night into Saturday night winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels as high pressure moves across the
are waters Friday, and a weak frontal system passes through
Saturday into Sunday.

Hydrology
There is the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
during late Thursday afternoon and evening. Significant
hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time, although there
may be some minor urban flooding in association with any
heavier rain associated with any thunderstorms.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fig dw
near term... Md dw
short term... Dw
long term... Fig
aviation... 12 jc
marine... Fig dw
hydrology... Fig dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi45 min SW 8 G 11 63°F 59°F1023.8 hPa
44069 28 mi54 min WSW 16 G 18 62°F 64°F50°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi45 min 63°F 58°F1023.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi45 min E 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 54°F1022.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi45 min WSW 16 G 18 65°F 1022.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi45 min 65°F 61°F1023 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi39 min SSW 12 G 14 60°F 58°F1023.1 hPa (-0.7)50°F
MHRN6 37 mi45 min SSW 6 G 9.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi45 min SW 14 G 16 63°F 66°F1024.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi45 min ESE 2.9 G 6 56°F 60°F1023.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi49 min SW 14 G 16 59°F 56°F2 ft1024 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi46 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F46°F60%1023.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi43 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F46°F62%1022.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi48 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast67°F42°F41%1022.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi48 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast62°F48°F62%1023.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi48 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds65°F45°F49%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW6W3W4CalmNW6N8N13
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1 day agoNW7NW8
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2 days agoS5S5S7S7S8SW6SW7SW6SW8S10S11S12--S13S13S10S10SW7S6SW4S5W4NW14
G24
N9

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EDT     7.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.15.87.27.87.56.44.83.11.60.60.41.12.64.35.86.97.26.55.33.92.61.61.21.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.20.70.90.60.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.200.10.40.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.