Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mill Neck, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:10PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 8:28 PM EDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:27AMMoonset 1:34PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 621 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
.gale warning in effect until 2 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray late this evening.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the daytime. Rain likely.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 621 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Gusty winds northwest will continue across the area through this evening in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then build over the great lakes tonight...moving more directly over the waters on Thursday...and then pass to the east Thursday night. A warm front will approach on Friday and remains nearby through Saturday. A cold front will move through Saturday night. A series of systems will impact the area starting Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mill Neck, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 222234
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
634 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Gusty northwest winds will continue through this evening in the
wake of a cold front. High pressure builds in tonight from the
great lakes, moving more into the region on Thursday. The high
moves offshore Thursday night. A warm front passes Friday,
followed by a cold front Saturday. The front will wobble across
the area on Sunday before lifting back north on Monday as a warm
front. Additional areas of low pressure may impact the area
starting late Monday.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
Wind advisories have either expired or been cancelled across
the area with gusts generally less than 40 mph, and will continue
to gradually subside through the night.

Instead of welcoming spring, we are welcoming back winter across
the tri-state area as chilly air has returned in the wake of a
cold front that passed across the area this morning. The main
impact in the wake of this front has been gusty northwest winds
especially from the city east across long island and across ct.

Gusts have dropped off even exceeded 50 mph in a few land based
locations including a 54 mph gust at the westhampton airport.

Wind advisories will be left up as is with coastal areas hanging
onto them longer. Surface pressure gradients remain up through
most of the night, however, the WRF keeps 925 mb winds over 35
kts across much of the area through 06z Thursday. There is a
bump in the 925 mb winds on this model between 03z and 06z
across fairfield county extending into queens, nassau and
western suffolk counties, so there is a possibility if some of
this higher momentum aloft mixes down of the need to extend wind
advisories in some areas for a few hours.

Even though winds will gradually drop off overnight in
strength, we should still see enough of a breeze overnight to
prevent a full decoupling. Thus did not do too much tweaking of
lows in the normal radiational spots though we still show
between 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground in the hudson
valley in orange and putnam counties as of this morning. A clear
sky is expected tonight with lows around 20 in the city and
most other areas in the teens. The coldest spots will be close
to 10 well inland. Some record lows may get reached or tied
tonight, see the climate section below.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday/
Surface high pressure will slide southeast from the great lakes
Thursday morning toward the DELMARVA peninsula by Thursday
afternoon. This will result in a clear sky with northwest winds
shutting off by the late morning and winds turning to the west
to southwest by the afternoon which will push readings back to
near 40 in the city with lower 40s in urban sections of
northeastern nj and the 30s elsewhere. Ample sunshine will help
take the edge off the early spring chill.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/
The good news is the really cold weather is on the way out,
however, so is seeing the Sun during much of the extended as an
unsettled weather pattern sets up.

A warm front will lift north across the area Thursday night into
Friday morning in advance of an area of low pressure ejecting
out of the southern plains. As the plains low gets closer
an increase in moisture will take place and spread light
precipitation into the area on Friday morning - possibly as
early as 5 to 8 am. Given temps will be near to below freezing
especially inland in the normal klondike spots of orange,
putnam, passaic and ct, there will be the risk for frozen
precipitation before temperatures gradually rise above freezing
with the passage of the warm front. Forecast model soundings all
show a warm nose or warm layer aloft with shallow cold air so
the risk for a variety of frozen precipitation exists. Across
north jersey and the lower hudson valley, frozen precipitation
may start as snow but quickly go to sleet or more likely
freezing rain as the warm layer aloft surges in. Model soundings
look a little better for a bit more in the way of snow across
interior ct, where at danbury snow may last a little longer
before mixing with sleet and/or freezing rain for a bit before
transitioning to all rain. Either way, QPF amounts are mainly a
tenth of an inch or less so this will not be a big event but
perhaps just enough to create some slick spots on roads if it
lasts long enough. If precip is slower to arrive, then p-type
will be more likely just rain as temps will warm up by later in
the morning. However, this short lived cold snap will chill any
road surfaces allowing for even a light amount of precip to get
slick except in spots where a hefty salt still sits on the
roads.

By Friday night, the warm front should push far enough north
that most of area dries out except for inland ct where some
light rain may linger.

The southern plains low advances east on Saturday toward st.

Louis. Our area should be in the warm sector, though still see a
decent amount of clouds. Depending on if we get any sun, temps
may crack 60 especially from the city on west. Southerly flow
off the chilly waters will hold MAX temps down on the island,
ct and southern parts of brooklyn and queens into the 50s.

The warm front to our north will start to get shoved back south
by later in the day in response to a surface high pressure over
eastern canada. Model consensus is there as to a backdoor cold
front moving toward the area Saturday evening and thus we showed
an increase up in pops in that time frame from east to west
across ct and long island. Also given the marine push, I added
in patchy fog as we may end up seeing more drizzle at times than
actual light rain. Temps will slowly fall through the night.

Inland we may see a little frozen precipitation if colder air
seeps in better than expected.

Sunday the main issue is where does the front stall out. The
ecmwf on the 00z operational run was warmer by about 10 degrees
in spots than the 12z operational gfs. For now I played temps
in between but suspect from the city on east the cooler scenario
will win on out but there is certainly some bust potential with
temps. In many spots readings may hold steady or even fall
through the day depending on what the front decides to do. We
kept in a chance of rain through the day as the approaching low
from the west and the front overhead should keep enough lift in
place to keep things wet most of the time.

Beyond Sunday waves of low pressure are expected to impact the
area with a frontal boundary near or north of the area. The
first wave should pull east by Monday morning but model
agreement was poor after this with timing and the track of the
lows. Given the pattern, frozen precipitation may be possible at
times well inland especially at night where any cold air is
trapped. If the frontal boundary hangs up further south then
frozen precipitation is possible further toward the coast. Most
likely though the flow aloft is west to southwest, so I have
favored a warmer forecast. I bumped up temps a bit over the
previous forecast based on a blend of the operational GFS and
ecmwf. There could be some breaks in rain at times, but this far
out exact timing of features is difficult.

Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr through the TAF period with mainly clear sky.

Nw winds near 25kt with gusts up to 40kt peaking this afternoon.

Gusts begin to drop off toward sunset and diminish after
midnight. Winds pick up again for a few hours midday Thursday
but likely drop off in the early afternoon as high pressure
settles across the area.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 5 mi43 min NW 16 G 23 30°F 2 ft5°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi40 min 18 G 21 29°F 38°F1027.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi40 min 30°F 40°F1027 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi46 min NNW 8.9 G 15 26°F 1026 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi40 min NW 19 G 27 30°F 1027.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi40 min 30°F 41°F1027.9 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi40 min NW 15 G 23
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi38 min NW 21 G 27 33°F 42°F5 ft1026.5 hPa (+4.2)10°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi40 min NNW 20 G 30 30°F 41°F1026.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi40 min N 19 G 33 26°F 40°F1026.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi38 min NNW 25 G 31 32°F 41°F7 ft1025 hPa (+3.4)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi35 minNNW 11 G 1810.00 miFair28°F-4°F24%1026.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi32 minNW 1410.00 miFair26°F-2°F29%1027 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi37 minNNW 20 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy31°F-2°F24%1027.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi37 minNNW 18 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy30°F-8°F19%1027.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi37 minNW 11 G 2010.00 miFair29°F-5°F22%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNW3NW7NW17
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1 day agoNW4W3NW4CalmNW4NW3N4NW3NW3N4NW4NW3W5NW4E3NW6W7S12W5NW8
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2 days agoN3N3CalmW5NW3NW5N6N9N7NW8N6N10N10N10
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NW11NW10N8NW8NW104NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
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Wed -- 01:14 AM EDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.31.52.53.85.16.16.76.55.74.43.221.10.81.42.63.95.26.26.56.153.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:41 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.60.80.60.1-0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.200.10.40.80.70.30-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.