Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 8:47 PM   Moonset 6:07 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 404 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers until late afternoon, then scattered showers late. Tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers in the evening. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 404 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system moves across the region into early this evening. Strong high pressure then builds in tonight through Friday. The high gradually shifts offshore Friday night into Saturday. A warm front, from low pressure in the great lakes region, moves into the area Saturday night into Sunday.

FXUS61 KOKX 240612 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 212 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches overnight and moves across the area on Wednesday. Strong high pressure then builds in Wednesday night through the end of the week. The high centered over the region on Friday gradually shifts offshore into Saturday then pushes farther south on Sunday as a low from the western Great Lakes moves into Canada. This low brings a warm front Saturday night into Sunday.
We remain between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Weakening high pressure offshore continues to give way to an approaching frontal system. Mid and high level moisture increases overnight along with a southerly flow ahead of the system. Most of the night will be dry with a few showers possible in the early morning as the associated warm front moves through the area. Moisture and lift are limited and any of the showers look light. In fact, most CAMs show the activity diminishing as it moves eastward, likely due to dry low levels.
Low temperatures tonight will not be as cold as recent nights with lows in the 40s across the region.

Behind the warm front, a WNW-WSW flow develops late morning into the afternoon. The trailing cold front will quickly sweep across the area from NW to SE middle to late afternoon. Forecast soundings are continuing to show some surface instability.
However, there are still hints of middle level capping along with dry sub cloud. For these reasons, have continued to leave thunder out of the forecast. Some isolated low topped convection may still develop in the afternoon and could contain gusty winds with the inverted V soundings/dry subcloud air. Dew points should start mixing out in the afternoon, but a more substantial drop in dew points is likely late in the afternoon and evening. The westerly component and deep mixing should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the entire area. Wind gusts 25-30 mph are possible late in the day. Temperatures could end up around 70 degrees in the NYC metro and urban NE NJ.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Any lingering showers end by sunset with skies quickly becoming clear. The main story for Wednesday night will be the much colder air that settles over the region in response to a strong high pressure building in from southeast Canada. Temperatures are likely to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the interior and middle to upper 30s most elsewhere. Lows in the NYC metro should fall close to 40 degrees. Winds will likely remain up through the night although there is a short window early Thursday morning just before sunrise for winds to lighten across the interior. These areas have a higher probability for seeing temperatures fall below freezing. Have issued a Freeze Watch for interior S CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and W Passaic and W Bergen from 3am through 9am Thursday. Frost will not occur due to the dry air (dew points falling into the teens and low 20s).

Strong high pressure will then dominate the weather Thursday into Thursday night. The center of the high settles overhead on Thursday with winds becoming light. An unseasonably cool air mass in place will lead to below normal temperatures in the 50s. Frost and freeze conditions appear likely again Thursday night into Friday morning with coldest readings inland. Modification of the air mass should lead to more low level moisture and potential frost development.
Additional frost/freeze headlines may be needed. Lows range from the low 30s inland to the middle and upper 30s near the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An Omega blocking pattern becomes established on Friday, as a deep trough remains across eastern Canada into the northern Atlantic, with another trough through the Rocky Mountain region into the Plains, and a high amplitude ridge in between. As a result, systems will be slow to move eastward into the beginning of next week. And a northern Plains low will be slow to move into the ridge Sunday into Monday.

With surface high pressure over the region moving offshore Saturday, there is a lot of uncertainty with the development and movement of a warm front Saturday night into Sunday, as ridging remains. This warm from will be coming from a low in the western Great Lakes as it moves into Canada to our north. Some isolated to spotty showers could for along the warm front boundary Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

A deep return flow sets up for late in the upcoming weekend and temperatures initially below normal through Saturday quickly rise to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday night into the beginning of next week. The warmest day looks to be Monday with the western interior and the NYC metro warming into the low-80s, while the rest of the region will be in the upper-to-mid 70s. Used the NBM guidance through the extended period with the exception of POPs. A weak low will attempt to bring more slight chance POPs to the area on Tuesday with a cold front. Frost headlines look less likely Friday night with the exception of the far interior.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A frontal system will approach overnight and move across today.
Strong high pressure will then build in tonight.

The frontal system will mainly come through the area dry with a low chance of showers, possibly even a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon. Any associated MVFR conditions will be short lived, with the best chance this morning.

Southerly winds overnight will generally decrease to 10 kt or less. Winds then veer to the SW with the passage of the warm front mid to late this morning, becoming WNW by afternoon behind the cold front. G15-20kt will develop in the morning, then G20-25kt in the afternoon. Winds then veer N and diminish somewhat late this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts with multiple frontal boundaries may vary by 1-2 hours, especially with the shift to WNW.

There is low chance of a thunderstorm along the cold front this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: VFR with diminishing N winds.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Wind gusts across the lower New York Harbor have diminished to below 25 kt, and the advisory was allowed to expire.

Strengthening S flow continues overnight. SCA conditions expand eastward across the ocean overnight into Wednesday. Winds will start weakening Wednesday night and especially Thursday, but ocean seas will remain elevated. The SCA remains in effect on the ocean through Wednesday night, but may need to be extended into Thursday.

A weakening pressure gradient will otherwise lead to conditions below SCA levels through the end of the week. High pressure remains in control Saturday, moving offshore Saturday night, with conditions below SCA levels through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
RH will be higher for the first half of Wednesday, but increasing W winds in the afternoon will lead to falling RH values. A wetting rainfall is not expected. Elevated fire spread conditions may present themselves for NE NJ in the later parts of the afternoon/early evening as gusts 25-30 mph occur and RH values fall into the lower to middle 30s.

Min RH values will be in the lower 20s on Thursday, but winds will be light and largely under 10 mph.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355.

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Wed -- 12:47 AM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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