Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larchmont, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:17PM Thursday May 25, 2017 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:39AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 353 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt early...then gusts up to 20 kt for the reminder of this evening.seas around 2 ft this evening...then 1 ft or less. Patchy fog this evening. Chance of light rain and drizzle this evening. Showers and scattered tstms late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain or drizzle.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the daytime.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 353 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks through the waters tonight and then off the new england coast on Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday...then gives way to high pressure building down from southeastern canada for the weekend. This high then retreats to the northeast early next week as weak low pressure tracks to the south. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larchmont, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.75     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252000
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
400 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks through the tri-state region tonight and and
then off the new england coast Friday into Friday night. Weak high
pressure over the area Saturday, gives way to high pressure
building down from southeastern canada for the weekend. This
high then retreats to the northeast early next week as weak low
pressure tracks to the south. A cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night. This front
then stalls out nearby as high pressure builds in from the
southwest, producing potentially unsettled weather for the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Middle level dry air continue moving over the region into this
evening as impressive upper level low begins tracking from the ohio
valley into the middle atlantic region. A vigorous vorticity max
will round the base of the upper trough and approach the northeast
as the trough GOES negatively tilted tonight.

For this evening, lingering light rain or drizzle remain possible.

No significant rain is expected however as lift is weak and
saturation is confined to the lowest 5 kft. Some patchy fog is also
possible, but model soundings do show some drying near the surface
which may negate widespread fog development.

Moisture and lift increase after 03z from south to north as the
upper low and energy approach. Significant dpva and steepening lapse
rates will support showers and scattered thunderstorms. The CAPE is
elevated as the low levels are inverted. The best instability
appears to lie along and east of the hudson river. Due to the
anomalous nature of the upper low and strength of the energy,
feel thunder is possible anywhere across the area overnight.

High resolution mesoscale models, such as the hrrr, nam-3km, and
ncar and SPC sseo ensemble all support this reasoning. The
normalized probability of greater than 40 dbz on the SPC sseo is
over 90 percent across long island and southeast connecticut
06z-12z with slightly lower percentages further west. No severe
weather is forecast.

Surface low pressure will move along or near the long island coast
overnight so winds will not be as strong as earlier today.

The warm front may even briefly move across portions of eastern long
island before the low lifts to the north and east.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Upper low and surface low become vertically stacked as they move off
the new england coast on Friday. Wrap around showers and possible
thunder linger for a few hours around day break across eastern
connecticut and the forks of long island. Otherwise, clouds
will be slow to clear as moisture lingers below 10 kft. Nw
downsloping flow should help to create some breaks in the
clouds, especially across the western half of the area. These
breaks will help boost temperatures into the 70s, with cooler
readings in the middle to upper 60s further east where clouds
linger longest.

Model soundings indicate some instability between about 5 and 10
kft, so clouds may fill back in with any breaks. There is also the
possibility of a few iso-sct showers. No thunder is forecast since
the instability does not look to get much above -5c with heights
building aloft behind the upper low.

Weak ridging passes Friday night as high pressure moves into the
region from the west. Lingering moisture will keep skies partly to
mostly cloudy with lows near normal values.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
The region is in between two shortwaves passing to the north and
south Saturday and Saturday night, so with most significant forcing
outside of the area, have at most slight chance pops in this time
frame, with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Onshore flow will dominate from Sunday through Monday.

The result will be mainly gray sky conditions with spotty light rain
or drizzle mainly over higher elevations mainly to the N W of nyc
from Sunday into Sunday night as a northern stream shortwave ridge
crosses the area. A 700-500 hpa shortwave approaches late Sunday
night and crosses the area on Monday, making for a more widespread
rain over the region then.

With the onshore flow damming high, have undercut guidance by mixing
in NAM and ECMWF 2-meter temperatures. Highs will run 5-10 degrees
below normal Sunday and Monday and lows a few degrees above normal
Sunday night (due to reduced diurnal range).

A broad closed low slow tracks from ontario into western quebec from
Monday night through Thursday, with shortwaves rotating around the
base of the low from time to time. The timing of these shortwaves is
somewhat difficult this far out, but for now it appears that most
energy will be focused mainly to the N of the region. As a result,
there is a chance of isolated to scattered showers - mainly over
northern portions of the tri-state. Also, cannot rule out an
isolated rumble of thunder Tuesday Tuesday night with the passage of
a surface cold front.

Temperatures Tuesday-Thursday should run near to slightly above
normal.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
An area of low pressure will move northeast over the region
tonight... And just to the northeast of the region Friday.

Ifr lifr CIGS continue into tonight. Lifr ifr visibilities late
afternoon evening will be contingent on drizzle development. Showers
with a chance for thunderstorms between 02z and 09z. Heavy downpours
are the main threat.

Gradual improvement to MVFRVFR CIGS Friday morning... With
quicker improvement toVFR vsby. Chance for showers.

Easterly winds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this
afternoon... Weakening this evening. Light and variable winds
tonight... Becoming northwest and gusty Friday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 1 mi27 min 56°F 55°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 6 mi42 min NE 5.1 G 8 57°F 57°F1001.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 10 mi57 min E 21 G 27 55°F 4 ft55°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi42 min 59°F 58°F1000.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi42 min NE 13 G 14 58°F 1001.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi42 min 59°F 60°F1000.6 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi72 min ENE 9.9 G 12
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi42 min E 13 G 19 56°F 58°F999.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi82 min E 18 G 21 56°F 55°F7 ft1000.7 hPa (-1.2)55°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi42 min E 8.9 G 14 57°F 1001.7 hPa
44069 38 mi42 min E 21 G 27 57°F 63°F57°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW7
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--

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi21 minNE 152.50 miFog/Mist58°F55°F93%1000.8 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY13 mi16 minE 11 G 201.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1001.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY14 mi21 minE 8 G 142.50 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1000.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY16 mi21 minE 14 G 202.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1001.1 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ16 mi21 minE 8 G 172.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist58°F55°F93%1000.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi19 minE 111.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1001 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE12NE7S7SE5SE10E12E12E8E10E12E13E11E6NE10NE12NE11E11E14E11NE11NE13NE17NE17
1 day agoNE4NE4CalmCalmS6S6S8S5E3NE4NE5E3SE6SE6E4NE4NE7NE8NE10NE7NE9NE15NE11
G20
NE11
2 days ago--S7S6S5S5CalmW7NW6N8NW8NW12N7N4N7NE5NE8NE5NE7E7NE4CalmNE4NW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Execution Rocks, Long Island Sound, New York
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Execution Rocks
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT     8.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:46 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:41 PM EDT     9.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.57.252.20.1-0.8-1-0.41.64.56.9887.35.63.10.8-0.3-0.501.64.47.38.9

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:16 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:30 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.40.81.20.90.3-0-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.4-00.20.61.11.10.50.1-0.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.