Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester Hill, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:02PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:15 PM EDT (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:09PMMoonset 10:11PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester Hill , PA
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location: 40.89, -78.23     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 261803
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
203 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Unseasonable heat and humidity will hang around for today and
much of Wednesday. A sharp, but dry cold front will push
southeast through the state Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Little rainfall is expected from the few, isolated showers
expect to accompany the front. Cooler, fall-like weather will
last through this weekend before warmer than normal temperatures
return next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Early valley fog has lifted evolved into areas of sct high based
cu within a ridge of high pressure that extending along the west
slopes of the appalachians at the sfc.

Last few runs of the hrrr and rap show pockets of sfc based cape
in the 1000-1500 j kg rage across parts of the mid susq valley
and northern mtns during the mid to late afternoon hours, with
some spotty brief convection. However, a weak mid level
inversion around 600 mb and small mid to upper lapse rates will
yield thin CAPE and weak updrafts.

Will maintain minimal to nil pops for this afternoon as this
instability is occurring within an otherwise highly
divergent anticyclonic llvl flow.

Tough to believe that we could have another day of tickling the
90s in late sept, but some central and southern pa valley
locations could get there again today. The rest of the region
will see mid to late afternoon temps top out mainly in the mid
to upper 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
It should be mostly clear tonight, but high-based stratocu or
altocu clouds could form over the NRN tier as convergence
increases and low level moisture will be high.

The cold front nears the NW part of our CWA during the morning,
and could be as far as half way through the CWA by the end of
the afternoon. The dewpoints will be in the m-u60s, so showers
are possible. But, the upper heights temps are so high warm that
cape remains extremely low. Will not tweak pops much, and low
is still the way to go.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
*summerlike heat event ends as autumn weather returns
*pattern remains mostly dry with no significant pcpn fcst
*first fall frost possible to start october 2017
the impressive run of summerlike record-breaking heat will come
to an end following the passage of an airmass-changing cold
front Wednesday night. Noticeably cooler, drier, and more
seasonal temperatures are expected from Thursday through the end
of the period. Welcome back fall!
the models show very little in the way of precipitation with the
frontal passage Wednesday night. Any shower activity will
spotty and on the light side with QPF amounts less than 0.10
inch. The next opportunity for rain comes later on Friday as a
northern stream shortwave trough dives southeast from the great
lakes through new england. Models are in pretty good agreement
with this feature and therefore increased pops to likely range
with scattered showers a good bet over north-central pa. Qpf
amounts are again on the light side with amounts 0.10 to 0.25
inch. It has been dry locally and we are likely to reach about
30 days since the last appreciable rain event in early sept.

A reinforcing shot of cool air aloft on Saturday may trigger an
isolated shower over the eastern half of the cwa; at the very
least the anomalously cold pocket at 850-700mb should support a
diurnal CU field and have increased sky cover accordingly.

A large, seasonably strong high pressure system will move into
the area Saturday night and become centered right over central
pa Sunday morning. The synoptic setup looks very favorable for
ideal radiational cooling conditions with calm winds, clear
skies and below normal pw. Areas of frost appear likely across
north-central pa with blended guidance temps in the mid 30s.

This is right on schedule with median date of first fall frost
over this area.

Temperatures should slowly moderate early next week as upper
level heights rise downstream of troughing over the pacific nw
and north-central u.S. The precipitation pattern still looks to
be a dry one with model and ensemble guidance showing a frontal
boundary over the midwest weakening decaying by the time it
reaches the appalachians around the middle of next week. The
lack of rainfall may become an issue with 30-60-90 day
departures running below normal especially in north-central pa.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
MinimalVFR vsbys of 8-10sm expected for the afternoon hours
today with light wind and haze. Otherwise, just some scattered
cu and cirrus clouds today.

Expect another round of valley fog and a few-several hour period
of low CIGS across at least the central and eastern valley
early Wednesday where sfc winds will stay light and skies clear
the longest. However a little more in a way of a breeze may
taper the fog, especially in the northwest.

Cooler and breezy conditions are in store for us by Thursday,
as a strong mainly dry cold front moves pushes across the area
during the day Wednesday.VFR sct-bkn CIGS will be the dominant
sky cover, with highly isolated showers containing brief MVFR
cigs and vsbys possible.

Wed... Patchy am fog possible.

Thu... No sig wx expected.

Fri... Evening low CIGS showers possible kbfd kjst
sat... Am low CIGS possible kbfd kjst.

Climate
Daily high temperature records for 9 26:
bradford: 79 in 1998
williamsport: 92 in 1900
harrisburg: 91 in 1970
altoona: 88 in 1998

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo lambert
near term... Lambert
short term... Dangelo lambert
long term... Steinbugl
aviation... Lambert martin
climate... Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clearfield, Clearfield-Lawrence Airport, PA15 mi22 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds85°F64°F50%1016.7 hPa
State College - University Park Airport, PA21 mi23 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F68°F58%1017.3 hPa

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Last 24hr3CalmNE5E5CalmN4N4N5N5N4N5N3CalmN3N4NE3CalmN3CalmNE3NE435E5
1 day agoE11E94E5NE3N6N6N7N4N6N6CalmN4N4N4N3N4N4NE3N3NE53Calm3
2 days agoN9NE5CalmN4N3N4CalmN4N3N5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6NE11
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.