Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester Hill, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:35 AM EDT (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:45AMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester Hill , PA
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location: 40.89, -78.23     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 280843
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
443 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach from the south today as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front will pass through later
tonight and early Monday. Low pressure will become stalled over
northern ontario during mid-week and will create a slightly
cooler than normal and unsettled stretch of weather.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Fog and some low stratus make it murky this morning, especially
in the southern tier. Some fog has also creeped into the rest of
the area. This was expected, but the more interesting aspect of
the weather this morning is the development of a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms over northern WV that are headed this
way steadily. The instability there is more likely aloft and
right over or NE of the warm front. The dewpoints are much
higher there than central pa, and it is all moving this way. We
do expect that the convection will wane some as it works NE and
farther from the good sfc dewpoints. But, scattered showers are
in the forecast for the laurels this morning. The upper level
feature associated with this cluster will doubtlessly linger
and will likely be a force in popping additional showers later
this morning on the high terrain of central pa.

Destabilization is most likely to the west of the CWA first. The
fog and stratus around locally will keep heating slow this
morning. But, when we break out and in those spots which do not
have lower clouds this morning, we'll see showers spread out and
cover much of the area by sunset. The guidance trend recently
is for more showers more quickly earlier in the day. Almost all
models and members of the various ensembles make storms over the
alleghenies before noon. A likely scenario is that the mountain
tops will destabilize first and convection will drift ne. Wind
profile is not terrifying, wbz about medium or perhaps a little
lower, and heating will be questionable. This does not bode well
for severe storms, but the storms moving into the CWA from the
west out of the warm-er sector will have some punch. Mrgl risk
includes warren to chambersburg and all areas sw, and there is a
slight risk for somerset co. While this delineation is rather
specific, in reality, it may be an even sharper drop off
(perhaps only 20 or 30 miles) from a location where storms will
almost- certainly be severe to a place where storms will not be
severe at all. Will mention the isold severe threat in the west
and sc mtns in the hwo.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Pwat GOES up to about 35mm before noon in the west, and this
maximum slides to the east during the late aftn and evening.

Storm motion to the NE is fairly certain but slow. The low level
flow is very light and out of the SE at first, so the cells may
not move far and mbe vectors will be short during the evening.

So, expect a few heavy rainers. Widespread showers and storms
will occur this evening and through the night. The NAM had
trended faster with the cfropa, but has reversed with the 06z
run. Now, this puts it more in line with the other guidance, but
it may be a temporary thing. If the slower models come to
fruition, the front will be half way through the CWA at 12z and
little if any showers are expected after noon in the east. The
front does not hurry along on Monday, though. It should turn
out to be a really nice day with just a westerly breeze in the
west, but the slowing front may keep it muggier in the east and
isold storms would then be possible in the east early in the
aftn. Temps may be a bit higher than currently advertised due
to some earlier clearing and the downslope effect.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
A secondary surge of cooler air moves across Monday night. This
will ring showers in from the W nw. However, timing is against
these surviving too far to the east.

Pops during this midweek period will be painted as chc -
translating to scattered showers with preference for the
majority of the QPF (albeit quite light at that)to be across the
typical west-nwrly flow upslope prone areas of the laurel
highlands and NW mtns. The chance for any thunder will be very
minimal Tuesday through Thursday.

Generally dry NW flow occurs late in the week into next weekend as
a 1020 sfc high over the upper midwest Friday evening builds SE twd
the region. Pops thur night through Fri night will be 30 percent or
less.

After our bout of coolish weather with temps several deg f below
normal Sunday and Monday, GEFS mean temps rebound back to near or
slightly above normal (even under slightly cooling 850 mb temps)
for Tuesday through at least Thursday. Ecens mean temps are several
deg warmer than the GEFS and nat'l blend of models temps. Leaned
closer to the cooler solutions based on the few-svrl deg c of
cooling aloft with near to slightly below 850 mb temps.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Fog developing in earnest across much of the region at 07z. Ifr
to lifr conditions exist across much of the region, but there
are some notable exceptions, such as kbfd and kipt where
conditions are stillVFR. While expecting fog development at
kbfd soon given no t TD depression, fog may hold off at kipt as
t TD still showing 4 degrees of spread. Model guidance actually
supports limited fog at kipt. Did include some MVFR restrictions
at kipt at this issuance.

Early low clouds fog will begin to lift after 12z, withVFR conditions
expected in most locations by afternoon. However, there is at least
some potential of a moist sse flow into the mountains creating a
MVFR stratus deck along the east slopes of the appalachians from
bfd south through unv,aoo and jst. The other area of concern will
be isold tsra impacts across the western airfields associated
with a warm front pushing into the region.

Outlook
Mon... Am showers low CIGS possible.

Tue... No sig wx expected.

Wed... Slight chance of showers reduced cigs.

Thu... No sig wx expected.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert ceru
aviation... Jung fitzgerald


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clearfield, Clearfield-Lawrence Airport, PA15 mi42 minE 40.75 miFog/Mist53°F53°F100%1011.9 hPa
State College - University Park Airport, PA21 mi43 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist55°F53°F94%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from FIG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmCalm4E53W5SW34SW5SW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5E4
1 day agoSW5W6W10W11
G17
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NW8NW11NW7NW6NW5NW4NW5CalmCalmSW4CalmCalm
2 days agoE5NE3NE6E64S53Calm4W4W5S3S3CalmSW3W8S33W5W4W5SW5SW3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.