Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centerport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:08PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:09 PM EDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 8:08AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 341 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through Saturday afternoon...
.low water advisory in effect from 3 am to 10 am edt Saturday...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers. Tides around 2 feet below normal are expected around the times of low tide.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Tides around 2 feet below normal are expected around the times of low tide.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 341 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in through the mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centerport, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.38     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221957
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
357 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes
tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The
high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a
cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in
through the late week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The surface low has reformed east of ma. Most rain and snow has come
to an end. Light precipitation will end for most areas except the
eastern sections and then another brief period of scattered
precipitation for parts of ny and ct through the evening and
overnight with some light snow possible in some of the higher
elevations. Snow amounts should be less than an inch. Rainfall
amounts generally around a few tenths of a inch. Winds have
turned wnw for most of the area. Winds will gust around 35-40
mph through tonight due to the strong pressure gradient on the
backside of the low pressure. Highs topping out in the upper 40s
with cool temperatures near or below freezing tomorrow.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Winds will continue to gust from 35-40 mph, but stay below wind
advisory criteria, through tomorrow afternoon and then lowering
overnight to 15-20 mph. Winds should be NW through the period.

Temperatures should top out near 50 and again be near freezing
tomorrow night. Should be dry.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pres will allow for a sunny start to the day on sun. With waa
aloft developing, increasing mid and high clouds can be expected for
the rest of the day. The nbm was used for temps, with readings at or
slightly abv average.

The models show a bit of uncertainty wrt the cold frontal passage on
mon. The front is timed to come thru early mon. The GFS appears to
be slightly faster than the ecmwf. The main challenge ATTM is
whether a wave developing along the front will bring a round of post
frontal pcpn to the area. This could fall as snow if it does occur.

The GFS is more robust with this probability, with the ECMWF keeping
the activity S of the cwa. The gem is a bit closer to the gfs.

Complicating factor is that boundary layer temps may not cool
sufficiently for a complete changeover to snow. A blend of the model
data was used, leaning on a warmer overall soln and little to no
snow, based on the wave uncertainty and temp uncertainty combined.

It looks dry Tue into Thu with a low 1030s high building into the
area. During this time of year, it should lead to some large diurnal
temp swings. The nbm was generally used for temps, although the
numbers were lowered Tue ngt with better radiational cooling
expected.

Probably dry for the rest of Thu thru fri. The models produce some
spotty pcpn in the WAA regime ahead of the next sys. With a dry
airmass in place, the official fcst was kept dry. The nbm was used
for temps, with a warming trend likely.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Low pressure intensifies as it moves northeast along the new england
coast and then into the canadian maritimes through Saturday.

Gusty wnw winds through the TAF period. G25-30 kt this afternoon,
with a few gusts to 35 kt at the city terminals will increase to 35-
40 kt at most terminals through the overnight. Winds then only
gradually decrease through the day on Saturday.

Scattered rain showers will continue into this evening, with
conditions remainingVFR. Any showers that linger into the overnight
hours at kswf khpn kbdr kgon could mix with or change to snow, which
would result in reduced visibilities. The timing and coverage of any
snow showers remains to uncertain to include in the tafs.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 21 mi39 min 45°F 39°F997.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 22 mi45 min 45°F 39°F993.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi39 min 45°F 42°F997.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi39 min 44°F 42°F994.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 40 mi49 min WNW 16 G 21 45°F 42°F997.2 hPa35°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 40 mi39 min 46°F 997.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi45 min 46°F 43°F997.8 hPa
MHRN6 45 mi69 min W 15 G 21
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi39 min 45°F 43°F999.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi79 min W 16 G 18 44°F 40°F7 ft996.1 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi76 minWNW 14 G 2610.00 miFair47°F25°F42%995.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY16 mi73 minW 15 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F28°F50%994.6 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY22 mi73 minWNW 15 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy44°F26°F49%995 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT23 mi77 minW 19 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Breezy46°F30°F54%993.2 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
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1 day agoSE6S5SE4SE3E3SE5SE6E7E4E6E8E7E10E10E9E9E11E13E14
G20
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2 days agoSW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8SW10SW11SW12SW15SW15
G21
S13S12S10S12

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Fri -- 01:20 AM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:46 PM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.5-0.10.20.61.11.10.60.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.20.10.40.91.20.80.3-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.