Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 3:38 PM   Moonset 4:28 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 331 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early this evening, then chance of showers late this evening and early morning. Showers likely late.Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 331 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front moves across the region late tonight into early Saturday, followed by a secondary cold front Saturday evening. High pressure then builds into the beginning of the week, but gives way to a frontal system that will impact the area for the middle of next week. High pressure returns at the end the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 191953 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 353 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves across the region late tonight into early Saturday, followed by a secondary dry cold front Saturday evening. High pressure then builds into the beginning of the week, but then gives way to a frontal system that will impact the area for the middle of next week. High pressure returns at the end the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface ridging will continue to weaken this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. An initial band of showers ahead of the front across upstate NY and eastern PA will weaken as it encounters the lingering ridging and some dry air. A few sprinkles are possible as this activity weakens late this afternoon and early evening, mainly west of the NYC metro. Most CAMs indicate a relative min in precipitation from 00z to about 06z. Will continue to show a gradual increasing trend in PoPs for the first half of tonight.

PoPs will steadily increase after 06z from west to east due to an approaching jet streak over the Ohio Valley/Midwest.
Increasing upper divergence ahead of the jet will result in more organized lift. There will also be a bit more organized thermal forcing, especially along and east of the Hudson River corridor. Showers should become widespread early Saturday morning as a result and then gradually push east of the area by midday as the cold front shifts offshore. Most the of rainfall should be light although a few briefly moderate showers cannot be ruled out. Amounts are lightest west of the city, around one tenth or less. Along and east of the Hudson River Corridor including the NYC metro, amounts range from around two to three tenths.

Improving conditions are expected late morning into the afternoon with the likelihood for some sunshine as clouds thin/diminish.
However, the associated shortwave will be swinging across New England late Saturday afternoon and evening. Partly to at times mostly cloudy conditions look probable, but this should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the lower and middle 60s with some upper 60s possible in the NYC metro. IF there is less cloud cover than currently forecast, highs could end up a few degrees warmer given a strengthening downslope westerly flow. A secondary cold front quickly moves through in the early evening with the aforementioned shortwave axis. For now will just show a slight chance PoP for interior S CT closest to the vort max which is supported by the latest CAMs.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure centered over the central states will slowly build towards the region Saturday night into Sunday.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated Saturday night with lows falling into the 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower 40s closer to the coast.

A large upper level low will be developing over southeast Canada Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in troughing persisting over the eastern US early next week. A wave of low pressure is progged to develop over the southeast on Sunday along with another shortwave swinging across New England. These features will likely bring middle and upper level clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The upper trough axis lifts out of the Northeast Sunday night with a brief return to a more zonal flow across the northern tier of the country. At the surface, weak high pressure builds east into the area through Monday night. The next piece of energy, located over the Northern Plains on Monday, will carve out an upper trough across the Great Lakes on Ohio Valley states Tuesday, and then on into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states on Wednesday. The associated frontal system will impact the area Wednesday into Wednesday night with increasing chances of showers during this time. At this time, there is little instability advertised in the guidance, so will keep the mention of thunder out of the forecast at this time. System looks progressive with rainfall amounts expected to be under an inch at this time. High pressure then closes out this week. There are some differences in the global models with the frontal timing and the interaction with northern branch energy, but impacts still look minimal. Thus, stayed very close to a consensus forecast. So all in all, a relatively benign period with no hazardous weather expected.

Temperatures will generally be at or just below seasonable levels with the exception of some milder air mid week in a strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. Even then, it won't be much higher than normal.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will weaken this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west by tonight. The front will move through late tonight into early daytime Saturday.

MVFR cigs had developed at the NYC metros and across parts of Long Island on leading edge of flow turning SE. These initial cigs shouldn't last long, but widespread MVFR cigs should return this evening and then lower to IFR close to midnight at the NYC metros, then an hour or two later to the north and east.

Showers off to the west attm should dissipate as they approach the Hudson Valley and NYC metro area, then showers with the approaching cold front should arrive late tonight into Sat morning. Some MVFR cigs should linger into the morning after fropa, with improvement to VFR from around 14Z at the NYC metros to around 16Z out east at KGON. NW-W flow after fropa should be mostly under 10 kt, but could pick up with some gusts 15-20 kt close to 18Z from KTEB/KEWR north/west.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

High confidence in winds. Unscheduled AMD possible for changing flight categories through this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: VFR. W-WNW winds increasing to 15G20-25kt.

Saturday night: VFR. Secondary cold fropa early with winds shifting NW 10-15G20kt.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening mainly NYC metros/coast.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA remains in effect for the ocean until 06z for seas around 5 ft. A cold front moves across the waters early Saturday follow by a secondary cold front Saturday evening. High pressure then builds Saturday night through Sunday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from late tonight through Sunday given a relatively weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.



HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:32 AM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:27 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:52 PM EDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
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