Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:46PM Monday September 25, 2017 2:56 PM EDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 145 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
This afternoon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 145 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the area through tonight slowly retreats to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday as hurricane maria moves northeast off the mid-atlantic coast. Refer to the latest national hurricane center advisories for the official forecast of maria. A cold front crosses the tri-state Wednesday night, followed by high pressure building in from the west through Thursday night. Another cold front approaches from the west Friday, then crosses the area Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251756
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
156 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure prevails through Tuesday then slowly retreats to
the east Tuesday night and Wednesday as hurricane maria moves
northeast off the mid-atlantic coast. Refer to the latest
national hurricane center advisories for the official forecast
of maria. A cold front crosses the tri-state Wednesday night,
followed by high pressure building in from the west through
Thursday night. Another cold front approaches from the west
Friday, then crosses the area Friday night, followed by canadian
high pressure building in for the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is on track with no major changes made to the near
term.

Deep layered ridging over the region will result in a sunny day
with above normal temperatures. Some low stratus may however
roll in late in the day right along the coast. 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to be around 17c, so highs away from
the sea breeze will be well into the 80s with perhaps a few
spots reaching 90. Even the coolest spots should be able to
reach at least into the upper 70s in spite of a sea breeze.

Highs will likely fall short of records, however. See the
climate section below for more details.

There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches through this
evening due to southerly swells from hurricane maria. Will also keep
up the high surf advisory for the south shores of suffolk county
today into this evening, although it looks like widespread surf
heights might not reach 7 feet across the area. Not enough
confidence to drop the advisory altogether.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The high surf advy and high rip risk have been extended thru tue
ngt. Also, fog has been expanded for tngt with stlt indicating
it is approaching ERN li already.

Looks like low stratus and fog will push in from the ocean as
tonight progresses. Models suggest just enough turbulent mixing to
preclude widespread dense fog, but there is a chance that a few
spots end up with dense fog before the night is through. Clouds will
help keep low temperatures above normal.

The tricky part of the forecast for Tuesday comes from the
uncertainty of the magnitude of stratus and fog that happens
tonight. Models at least appear to be in agreement that there will
be less lower level moisture during the afternoon hours. Inland
areas will have a better chance of seeing lower clouds break up
sooner in the day, but there could still be a pretty good deal of
cirrus from hurricane maria. Temperatures aloft will still be quite
warm under high pressure, so in spite of the cloud cover, expecting
high temperatures to be above normal once again.

There likely will be a high risk of rip currents at atlantic
beaches through at least Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The axis of a northern stream shortwave ridge passes to the north
Tuesday night, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. Lows
Tuesday night should be around 10-15 degrees above normal.

A northern stream trough passing to the N Wednesday and Wednesday
night, should help create a sufficient weakness in the ridge to the
east of hurricane maria, to allow the storm to track well SE of long
island. There could be some isolated to scattered showers due to a
combination of some moisture from maria and the passing shortwave.

The associated cold fronts passage late Wednesday night could
provide enough lift for a rumble of thunder or two as well. Highs
Wednesday should be around 10 degrees above normal and lows
Wednesday night around 15 degrees above normal.

Wsw-sw flow aloft settles over the area Thursday-Friday, helping to
continue to push maria well offshore. Do have slight chance pops
Thursday and Thursday night (diminishing from W to e) as there is
some question on exactly how fast the surface cold front exits to
the east, and whether it could become anafrontal. Friday should be
dry, with the cold front expected to be well to the east and no
significant shortwave progged to move over the area.

A positively tilted trough approaches Friday night, then crosses the
area Saturday. This warrants slight chance pops, initially over w
zones late Friday night, then over the entire area by Saturday
afternoon. If confidence increases in the amount of low level
moisture available for the system to work with, pops could end up
needing to be raised to chance on Saturday.

Deep layered northern stream ridging then builds in behind the
departing trough. There is some question how fast it begins to
build in (as soon as Saturday night or waiting until Sunday) for now
went with a blended timing based on the ECMWF gfs cmc. It should be
dry regardless of the timing of the ridge.

Temperatures Thursday-Sunday start out above normal Thursday, should
be near normal Friday, then below normal Saturday and Sunday.

There probably will be a high risk of rip currents at atlantic
beaches through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period.

Vfr conditions this afternoon, but watching stratus fog bank off
the coast. Stratus and fog will likely make a better push
across the terminals from the east this evening and overnight.

Stratus and fog is expected to be more widespread, however
timing is uncertain and could be several hours off from current
forecast. These subVFR conditions linger into Tuesday morning,
then improve as the afternoon hours approach.

Light E SE winds 5-10 kt through the remainder of the afternoon
become light variable again tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi26 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi38 min ENE 5.1 G 8 77°F 73°F1017.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi44 min SSE 6 G 7 76°F 71°F1017.2 hPa
44069 28 mi71 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 74°F71°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi38 min S 16 G 17 75°F 1017.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi38 min 86°F 73°F1016.7 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi38 min E 6 G 7
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi66 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 73°F 74°F4 ft1016.6 hPa (-1.0)67°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi38 min SSE 6 G 8 78°F 74°F1018.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi38 min SW 8 G 9.9 73°F 74°F1017.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi66 min E 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 70°F5 ft1017.8 hPa (-0.6)57°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi63 minESE 510.00 miFair83°F64°F53%1017.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi60 minSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds87°F68°F53%1016.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi65 minNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds83°F68°F61%1017 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi65 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds84°F63°F49%1017.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi65 minVar 410.00 miFair87°F66°F50%1017 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6S7S5S6S5SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmNE4S6SE5
1 day agoNW11N9N6N6N3N4N3N4E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN8N9N5NE6NE7NE6NE4
2 days agoN14
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N11N8NE9N11N14N11N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:11 AM EDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:26 PM EDT     7.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.65.26.57.26.95.84.42.91.81.11.12.13.75.46.87.67.56.65.23.62.31.20.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:22 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.20.50.90.70.2-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.300.10.30.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.