Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday March 30, 2017 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:31AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 320 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain late this evening and overnight.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely...mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming se. Seas 1 ft or less... Then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming n. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime... Then chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 320 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low pressure system may impact the waters Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 301744
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
144 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure slides east across the region today. Low pressure
will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure
builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low
pressure system may impact the area Monday night and Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Forecast remains on track.

Northern stream shortwave energy slides east today with surface
high pressure building in from the west.

Tranquil and near seasonable conditions today as high pressure moves
across. Increasing high and mid clouds expected in the afternoon
ahead of the next approaching system.

Highs generally in the lower to mid 50s under light winds... Deep
mixing and late march solar insolation. If high clouds come in
a little thicker or earlier, temps could run slightly a degree
or two cooler than forecast.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Friday night/
Models in general agreement with a central plains closed
low tracking through the mid-mississippi river valley today and
into the ohio valley tonight. The low then begins to interact
with the northern stream as it slides to the east coast by
Saturday morning. Subtle difference exists in this
interaction... Which manifests in some timing and track
differences with the resultant coastal surface low as it
develops over the virginia piedmont Friday and tracks just south
of the area Friday night into Sat am.

The main impact from this system for most of the area will be a
soaking windswept rain developing late tonight into Friday morning
and continuing through Friday night before tapering off
Saturday morning. Ensembles generally clustered between 1 1/4
and 1 3/4 inches of liquid... With locally up to 2 inches
signaled.

Across interior portions of NE nj/lower hud valley/southern
ct... Thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to
complicate the forecast late tonight through Friday night. Storm
track will be critical... With a farther south track favoring
cooler and more wintry mix potential... While a track over nyc/li
favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain
rain.

At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/fri am... Evap cooling
will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and
snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming
aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With
that said... March boundary layer warming should allow for precip
in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon... Except
elevations above 750-1000 ft or so.

Late Fri aft into Fri night... Dynamics increase as closed low energy
approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area
to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time
low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary
layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic
processes can overcome warming aloft from SE LLJ to bring a
period of heavier sleet... Possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent
exceedance snow/sleet forecast covers this low potential for a
period of complete changeover to wintry precip. Another concern
is that temperatures across interior... Particularly higher
elevations... Could haver around/drop to freezing fri
night... Introducing the potential for freezing rain. Marginal
temp profiles will not support efficient icing... But the threat
of hazardous travel from light icing exists.

Based on above... This is a low confidence snow/sleet accum
forecast for the interior. At this point the most likely outcome
is varying combinations of mixed precip during the period with
a light slushy accum of sleet/wet snow/fzra across the
interior... Especially elevations above 750-1000 ft... By the
time everything winds down Sat am.

In terms of winds... Easterly winds increase Friday as a tight
gradient develops between high pressure anchored over SE canada and
developing coastal low pressure. 950 hpa LLJ appears to peak at 45-
50 kt across li/se ct late Friday into Friday night. Across the nyc
metro and much of the coast... Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are likely and
peak gusts to 40 mph possible. The LLJ peaks across eastern LI and
coastal SE ct Fri night... With gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and a
few peak gusts to 45-50 mph possible. Highest winds will be
along immediate coast.

The easterly winds will result in minor coastal flood concerns for
the Fri night high tide. See tides and coastal flood section.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
Good model consensus that low pressure will be tracking south of
nantucket on Saturday, then further out to sea Saturday night. As
this occurs, light precipitation on the back side of the system will
taper off through the day. Time heights show a lack of deep lift,
and therefore no ice crystals introduced, precluding snow. As a
result, some mixing with sleet was included in the forecast early
Saturday, with mainly rain expected across the majority of the area.

Any precipitation ends by Saturday evening at this time, with fair
weather then settling in for Sunday as high pressure builds in.

Increasing clouds on Monday as both northern stream and southern
stream moisture converge on the region. The ECMWF and GFS then
continue a latitude battle with regard to the southern stream low,
with the GFS about 150 miles north of the ecmwf. As a result of this
uncertainty several days out, the probability for rain has been
limited to the chance category. High pressure builds in in the wake
of the low for Wednesday, then another low may impact the area at
the end of the week. Increasing clouds with a low chance for rain
have therefore been forecast for Thursday. A blend of guidance was
used for temperatures except for Monday night, where the forecast
was weighted heavily towards to raw model data. In this case, the
potential clouds and rain would likely limit the climatology
influence evidenced by mos.

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/
Vfr conditions are expected through the first half tonight as
high pressure remains over the region. MVFR conditions move in
after 06z Friday as low pressure approaches. Conditions
gradually fall towards daybreak, with ifr conditions or less
developing after 14-15z in rain. At kswf, a mix of rain and ice
pellets will be possible.

South-southeast flow develops this afternoon with wind speeds
remaining below 10 kt. Winds lighten this evening and overnight
with speeds falling to 5-6kt or less. Late tonight, the wind
direction becomes more easterly, and during the morning hours on
Friday, speeds will increase to 10-15kt, with gusts into the 20
kt range.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 4 mi69 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 30°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi54 min Calm G 0 49°F 40°F1021.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi54 min SSE 7 G 8.9 44°F 1021.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi54 min 48°F 43°F1021.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi54 min S 15 G 16 42°F 1022 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi54 min 49°F 44°F1021.4 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi54 min SE 7 G 8.9
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi94 min S 9.7 G 12 41°F 43°F2 ft1023.4 hPa (-0.8)28°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi54 min S 11 G 12 42°F 45°F1021.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 12 41°F 41°F1022.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi94 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 41°F 43°F3 ft1023.1 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N17
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi31 minSSW 810.00 miFair45°F27°F49%1021.9 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi28 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F19°F29%1021.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi33 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F21°F31%1021.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi33 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F30°F56%1022.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi33 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F21°F32%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N7N12
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N10N3CalmNW3N5N5N5N8N13
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NE64W3S12S8
1 day agoNE6N8N9N8NE8NE7N6N7N6N5N7N5N9N16
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2 days agoNE5NE4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmE5NE4NE5E5E5SE4E3E7E8E9E6SE4E8E11E7NE5E10

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM EDT     8.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     8.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.98.98.67.25.12.80.8-0.6-1-0.11.84.26.47.98.37.45.73.61.60.1-0.6-0.11.74.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:14 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:40 PM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.400.30.611.10.60-0.3-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.10.20.40.81.10.80.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.