Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:46PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 4:14 AM EDT (08:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 3:56AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 347 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt this morning. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain early this morning, then rain with isolated tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 347 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south today and passes across the area tonight. The low moves into new england Thursday. Low pressure tracks through the area on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for the beginning of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250735
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
335 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the south today as passes across
the area tonight. The low moves into new england Thursday. Low
pressure tracks through the area on Friday, followed by a cold
frontal passage over the weekend. High pressure then builds in
for the beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Overall model agreement is noted with regard to main upper level
and sfc features. Weak shortwave approaching from the south
just ahead of northern stream shortwave that tracks across the
great lakes region.

Sfc low approaches from the south, moving right up the eastern
seaboard. Gusty easterly winds this morning are anticipated,
then winds should diminish as the low approaches and the
pressure gradient weakens. Rain this morning could be heavy at
times per global models and high resolution simulated
reflectivity, with a focus just east of nyc. In general, qpf
amounts have trended down somewhat, but still expect around an
inch, with a range of 1 2 inch to up to 2 inches in spots. Once
again, cannot rule out some thunder, mainly mid morning into
the afternoon due to weak elevated instability.

Temps will struggle to rise much, with late day highs expected
once the steadier rain begins to taper somewhat. Blended met,
mav and ecs data.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Sfc low moves in the general area of nyc tonight as northern
stream possibly phases with weakening shortwave, although degree
of phasing remains in question.

Regardless, winds lighten, and fog will develop due to the
recent rain, light winds and minimal t TD spread.

A few showers are possible as the low and sfc trough passes.

Any fog lifts late tonight as westerly wind flow behind
departing low to the north stirs up the boundary layer, and
drier air moves in. Lows range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
per MOS blend.

On Thursday, sunshine returns, mixed with a few clouds and any
rain showers remain to the north, closer to upper shortwave, sfc
low. Westerly flow will allow for deeper mixing, and temps
rising well into the 60s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
The ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement with low pres tracking
thru the area fri. The sys is the remnants of the upr low currently
over neb. The modeling indicates a weak sys as the low runs out
ahead of an approaching upr trof. The thermals indicate all rain.

The timing is late Fri and Fri ngt attm, although some timing changes
cannot be ruled out. A more intense low would be possible if the upr
trof arrives quicker, or if the remnant low slows. A cold front then
brings a chc for some more shwrs on sat. Everything is progged to
clear out on Sun with some fair wx clouds likely as the cold pool
aloft passes thru. The post frontal high reaches pa Sun ngt. This
should be close enough to allow for the winds to decouple and
produce prime radiational cooling cond. As a result, the colder mex
was used for temps Sun ngt as opposed to the warmer model blends.

Frost freeze issues are possible if this unfolds as currently
expected. Fair wx with a warming trend for the beginning of next
week with an upr ridge building into the region.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight into
Wednesday, and then moves overhead Wednesday night.

MVFR conditions continuing to lower to ifr overnight, with
moderate to heavy rain for the morning push. Isolated tstms
possible Wed morning into early afternoon but confidence remains
low, so have kept out of the tafs. Potential for lifr or lower
conds in stratus fog for evening push.

E winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt for coastal
terminals Wed morning. Winds subside in the early afternoon,
becoming light and variable for evening push.

Llws possible with SE winds at 40-45 kt at 2 kft.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night Lifr or lower in stratus fog possible for
evening push, gradual improvement toVFR late Wed night into
early Thu morning.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday-Saturday Vfr. A chance of showers with areas of MVFR
conditions.

Sunday Vfr. W wind 10-15kt, g20-25kt.

Marine
Gusty easterly winds in the 20 to 25 kt range this morning will
diminish this afternoon as low pressure approaches from the
south. A few gusts to 30 kt are possible over the ocean waters
this morning.

Seas build in response to the increasing east winds. As the low
moves nearby, then to the north tonight, light winds will shift
to the west and pick up in speed once again. Westerly winds are
forecast Thursday as the low passes further to the north.

Sca conditions are expected through Thursday, mainly for
elevated ocean seas, but winds should gust as well.

For non ocean waters, SCA remains up for this morning, but will
extend eastern LI sound and peconic gardiners bays through 6 pm
as winds may linger across these locations a bit longer.

Low pres passing thru the region on Fri followed by a cold frontal
passage on Sat will keep seas at SCA lvls on the ocean. Elsewhere,
winds and waves look to remain blw criteria. Winds and seas blw sca
lvls all waters sun-tue with high pres building in from the w.

Hydrology
A widespread 0.50-1.50" of rain is likely today. Heavy rain at
times could cause minor urban and poor drainage flooding,
especially if the higher end of the expected rainfall range is
realized. Expecting the bulk of the rain to fall this morning,
perhaps lingering into late afternoon across SE ct.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated fri-tue.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz335-
338-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz330-
340.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Jmc pw
near term... Pw
short term... Pw
long term... Jmc
aviation... Cb
marine... Jmc pw
hydrology... Jmc pw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi44 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 54°F 47°F1018.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi44 min E 8 G 13 49°F 47°F1018.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi44 min 53°F 47°F1017.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi44 min ESE 16 G 19 53°F 1017.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi44 min 54°F 49°F1016.5 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi44 min ESE 12 G 17
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi34 min E 12 G 14 49°F 47°F1016.8 hPa48°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi44 min ESE 9.9 G 14 50°F 49°F1017.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi44 min ESE 7 G 12 52°F 50°F1019.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi84 min ESE 14 G 16 49°F 44°F5 ft1017.5 hPa (-3.2)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi21 minESE 85.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F52°F96%1017.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi18 minE 77.00 miLight Rain50°F48°F93%1017.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi23 minENE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F89%1016.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi23 minESE 125.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F52°F100%1017.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi23 minVar 52.50 miRain Fog/Mist53°F51°F93%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE8S12S7S15S17S15S17SE12SE14SE12SE10SE11SE12E9
G17
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4N6NE6E9E4SE11SE12E7SE11SE10SE9SE12S11S7S5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N6N5N3NE4N7NE74653SE3S13S11SW13SW15SW11SW7SW5W3W3SW3SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
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Wed -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     7.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:41 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:40 PM EDT     7.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.310.40.823.85.677.77.36.24.731.40.30.112.64.66.47.77.97.15.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:48 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:50 PM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.510.90.50.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.2-0.10.20.810.60.30.1-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.