Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:21PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:47AMMoonset 6:43PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 412 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 412 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will move across the waters tonight into early Saturday and become stationary south of long island as waves of low pressure move along it from late Saturday through early Tuesday. High pressure builds in for later Tuesday and Wednesday. Another low and cold front approach Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212027
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
427 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
Hot and dry weather expected through Saturday. A weak cold
front will settle south of the area tonight. This front will
remain nearly stationary south of the area Saturday and
Saturday night. A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity
Sunday morning, and remain in the area Sunday, as high pressure
builds to the north. The high drifts off the northern new
england coast Sunday as a wave of low pressure moves eastward
along to the boundary into Tuesday. High pressure will follow
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure follows
for Wednesday night into Friday through Thursday. A cold front
will approach Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Fast zonal westerly flow in the mid levels will help push a weak
cold front to south of long island late tonight into early
Saturday.

The front appears to have a lack of moisture associated with it.

Models are not displaying much of any QPF with it as it moves
across late tonight. Much of the atmosphere above 5kft will have
a dry westerly flow so just expecting a brief increase in
clouds with the front.

Winds will become light and variable tonight. Lows will be on
the warmer side with the clouds increasing, mid 60s in rural
locations to upper 70s in the nyc urban heat island.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Fast zonal westerly flow aloft will remain Saturday and Saturday
night. The heights will be lowering slightly overall during this
timeframe. At the surface, the front will become stationary
south of long island. A shortwave aloft will help with
development of low pressure along the front that will move in
Saturday night into early Sunday.

Another hot dry day is expected with a little more humidity as
well, pertaining to absolute humidity here as diagnosed from
slightly higher dewpoints. A weaker pressure gradient will
result in lighter winds during the day, giving way to typical
sea breeze circulations. The nyc metro area is still going to
initialize Saturday with relatively warmer temperatures.

Therefore, taking this into account, heat advisory criteria is
expected to be nearly met for the greater nyc metro area
encompassing adjacent zones in northeast nj. Cannot rule out
some 95 degree heat indices within the aforementioned area but
majority of heat indices probably in the 91 to 94 range.

For Saturday night, the weather becomes more unsettled with the
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the
more recent model trends show a southward trend to showers and
thunderstorms with the wave of low pressure along the front.

Omega increases substantially at 700mb providing extra lift
despite marginal instability. A more southward shift so that
the highest chances Saturday night are along the southern coasts
of the forecast region and nyc. High precipitable waters will
be present so heavy rain will be possible with some
thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds are possible with some
thunderstorms depending on the strength of the wave of low
pressure. Lows taken from warmer guidance of gmos and mav,
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
There remains some uncertainty as to the track of an ongoing
convective complex at the beginning of the forecast period, that
will be moving out of the upper midwest. At this time the trend
has been for high pressure to be building to the north pushing a
frontal boundary farther to the south. As a result the forecast
of the complex is also farther to the south Sunday morning. So
have lowered the probabilities overall Sunday, with the lowest
chances to the north. If the high pushes farther to the south
the area may be dry through Sunday.

Then a shortwave will be moving through the northern stream,
across the great lakes Sunday into Sunday night, and the move
slowly through the northeast Monday into early Tuesday as
ridging builds over the western atlantic. Again there remains
some uncertainty with the timing of this shortwave. Also there
is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Sunday.

With an easterly flow developing as the surface high builds to
the north, the area will become more stable under a marine
influence. So while there will be marginal destabilization and will
keep mention of thunder, and with the timing more Sunday night into
Monday, there is more uncertainty with the development of severe
weather with these storms.

Weak ridging will build to the west later Tuesday into Wednesday
as high pressure builds to the west. The upper flow becomes
progressive Wednesday as the western atlantic ridge weakens and
drifts east. Yet another shortwave and cold front will affect
the area Wednesday night into Friday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Surface trough will reside in close proximity to the terminals
today before passing offshore late tonight. Weak high pressure
follows for Saturday morning with a warm front approaching from
the SW in the afternoon.

Vfr through the period. W-nw winds early this afternoon
gradually back around to a more w-sw direction at around 10 kt
with occasional gusts 15-17 kt. Local seabreeze influences at
kjfk, kgon, kisp, and kbdr will allow for some variability
around a SW direction. Light northerly flow develops late
tonight behind the surface trough.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 4 mi55 min W 9.7 G 14 85°F 1 ft68°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi55 min W 7.8 G 12 87°F 65°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi52 min NW 6 G 8 87°F 76°F1010.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi52 min WSW 7 G 11 89°F 1009.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi52 min 86°F 76°F1010.8 hPa
44069 28 mi70 min SW 12 G 16 81°F 83°F76°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi52 min W 9.9 G 15 1011.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi52 min 89°F 78°F1011.2 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi52 min W 7 G 12
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi50 min SW 9.7 G 12 80°F 77°F2 ft1010.7 hPa (-0.6)74°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi52 min W 8 G 8.9 86°F 79°F1010.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi52 min WNW 9.9 G 12 87°F 80°F1010.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi50 min SW 12 G 14 79°F 77°F3 ft1010.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi47 minWNW 710.00 miFair91°F62°F38%1010.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi1.7 hrsW 7 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds90°F62°F41%1010.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi49 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F66°F43%1010.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi49 minW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy93°F66°F41%1011 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi49 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds88°F66°F48%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W5S6W6W8W5NW4W6W3NW5NW3W5W5W7NW8NW7
G14
W8N8NW8NW8NW6NW10NW8
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1 day agoSW10SW8SW10SW6SW4CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmNE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW7SE6SW9S15
G21
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2 days agoS9SW11SW10SW8SW8SW7SW6SW6SW5SW3SW3SW3SW8SW7SW9S7SW4SW5S13S13SW11SW14SW11SW13

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:03 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:54 AM EDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:12 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:14 PM EDT     9.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.53.51.60.2-0.40.21.73.85.87.37.87.25.73.92.10.7-00.41.94.16.48.298.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:25 AM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:41 AM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:51 PM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:07 PM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-00.20.6110.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.30.91.10.70.2-0-0.3-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.