Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:55PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:54AMMoonset 7:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1044 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1044 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical cyclone jose well southeast of Montauk point will move slowly to the northeast through tonight and meanders offshore on Thursday. High pressure builds to the north and west on Thursday, remaining in place through early next week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to the southeast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201539
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1139 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Tropical cyclone jose well southeast of the twin forks of long
island will slowly move northeast through tonight and will
remain well offshore through Thursday. High pressure builds
over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next
week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast.

Please refer to national hurricane center products for more
details on jose.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Jose was located about 200 mikes southeast of the twin forks of
long island late this morning and will continue moving slowly
to the northeast away from the coast through this afternoon.

Rain bands continue to spiral across portions of southeastern
connecticut and eastern long island and will keep chance
probabilities through this afternoon across the eastern zones.

Please refer to national hurricane center products for more
details on jose.

Increasing subsidence on the backside of jose and from building
upper ridging should prevent the rain from progressing westward.

North to northeast winds will continue with occasional gusts 30
to 35 mph across the twin forks.

The main concern today will be from high surf and dangerous rip
currents at ocean beaches. Minor coastal flooding is also
possible.

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across eastern
long island and southeast connecticut through the day. Further
west, at least partial clearing is anticipated, especially this
afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Jose will meander south and east of CAPE cod tonight into
Thursday. Winds will weaken during this time, but still remain
gusty across long island and southeast connecticut. This is
where the tightest pressure gradient will be located between
high pressure to the north and west and jose offshore.

Otherwise, skies will continue to gradually clear overnight and
should largely be mostly sunny on Thursday.

Deep upper ridging builds to the north and west as jose meanders
offshore. Drier low level air should work in on Thursday as well
with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Temperatures however will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s in
ne nj and nyc metro with upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.

Dangerous rip currents will likely continue at atlantic ocean
beaches on Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Lots of uncertainty in the long term continues. Most of this is
due to the uncertainty surrounding jose's ultimate track and
strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts
regarding jose from the national hurricane center.

For now it appears that jose and or remnants will meander about
250- 300 miles to the southeast of montauk Thursday through
this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield
just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the
area will then likely keep us dry through the period with above-
normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on
the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday
and Tuesday, will continue to keep both periods dry for
consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details
of jose from run to run.

Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end
of this week and may continue into early next week.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
Tropical cyclone jose will remain off southern new england
coast today.

Bands of showers pivoting to the east may occasionally move into
kgon, however, conditions will more likely remain dry.

Intensity is mainly light although vsby could briefly drop to
MVFR. Otherwise... Ceilings are mainlyVFR in the city terminals,
although there may be occasional MVFR ceilings at times. Pockets
of MVFR ceilings for khpn and kteb, but expectVFR by 18z.

Ceilings improve to MVFR-VFR this afternoon into the evening
hours for eastern terminals.

Gusty N flow will gradually shift to the nnw. Gusts will
continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer
to 25-35 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease
through the evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi32 min N 14 G 21 76°F 66°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi47 min NNE 17 G 20 74°F 71°F1012 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi47 min N 11 G 24 76°F 72°F1010.1 hPa
44069 28 mi47 min N 19 G 27 74°F 72°F68°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi47 min N 21 G 28 75°F 1012 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi47 min 76°F 72°F1011.7 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi47 min N 20 G 23
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi87 min N 16 G 19 73°F 71°F8 ft1009.5 hPa (+1.4)67°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi47 min N 11 G 16 76°F 70°F1012.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 13 76°F 73°F1010 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi87 min N 21 G 27 71°F 67°F10 ft1008.3 hPa (+1.4)67°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NE11
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NE5
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi24 minN 16 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F66°F67%1010.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi81 minN 10 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F64°F71%1011.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi26 minN 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F72%1011.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi26 minN 19 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy80°F66°F62%1011 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi26 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F66%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE16
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1 day agoE5NE7E6E6NE6NE8NE5NE6NE7NE9NE8NE11NE9NE12
G16
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G24
2 days ago3NE6S5S6S5SE9SE7E6SE6E5NE3N6N4E5NE4NE4NE6NE5E5NE4NE7NE7NE10E9

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:51 AM EDT     8.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.47.35.63.61.70.2-0.30.42.14.36.68.28.67.96.44.42.40.7-0.2-01.43.45.67.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 03:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:34 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.71.10.90.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.200.511.10.60.2-0-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.