Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Head of the Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday July 23, 2017 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 8:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1254 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Overnight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1254 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. This front then sags farther to the south on Sunday after the low passes. Another low then moves along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by Monday morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves through the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east Tuesday. High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Head of the Harbor, NY
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location: 40.91, -73.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230625
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
225 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of
low pressure tracks along it. This front then sags farther to
the south later today after the low passes. Another low then
moves along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by
Monday morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves
through the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east
Tuesday. High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday
through Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night.

Another wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into
Friday, with a cold front moving through Friday. High pressure
returns Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Forecast remains generally on track. Heavier showers have
developed in and around nyc, but this activity is progged to
pass east early this morning. Once a mid and upper level
shortwave exits, some drying should occur except for possibly
some lingering showers mainly over long island.

Lows tonight should be around 5 degrees above normal.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
The region should be under locally zonal flow Sunday. With no
shortwaves of note forecast to move over the region in this
flow, it should be mainly dry. However, this is quite a change
from the previous forecast. So to trend things, went with
slight chance pops over western zones and mainly dry over
eastern zones through late afternoon, then increased pops to
chance over far western zones and slight chance throughout
elsewhere (reflecting climatological trends for convection).

A sharpening 700-500 hpa trough developing closed low moving
into the great lakes Sunday night, along with 850 hpa
frontogenesis, will produce an increasing threat of showers,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The pops increase from w
to e, to likely throughout by after midnight.

Onshore low-level flow should result in a mostly cloudy sky on
Sunday, limiting highs to near to slightly below normal levels
(mainly around 80-mid 80s). Lows Sunday night should be slightly
above normal due to cloud cover.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches Sunday.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
An upper level shortwave and accompanying wave of surface low
pressure will be exiting to the east Monday night into early
Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be on-going at the
beginning of the extended forecast period. Instability and CAPE will
be marginal and increase somewhat during Monday, however may still
not be sufficient to support widespread convection, so will keep
isolated wording.

The upper westerly flow will be progressive through the period. A
weak ridge builds Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday. Then
another shortwave, with an embedded closed low, over the canadian
west coast Monday, opens and digs a more significant trough into
the eastern states Wednesday night into Thursday with a high
amplitude trough, of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal,
digging all the way to northern florida by Friday. The flow looked
to be still progressive with a surface low moving through
Thursday and Friday. However, there are hints that the upper low
will close off again Friday into Saturday and remain along the
northern coast into next weekend. At this time will keep with
persistence and the more progressive flow and keep Friday night
into Saturday dry as upper ridging builds to the north.

Temperatures through the extended period will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
A frontal boundary will remain just south overnight as a wave
of low pressure tracks along it, then sag farther south today
after the low passes. Another low will then moves along the
front tonight.

Brief ifr vsby in heavier rain at kjfk has tapered off, leaving
MVFR conditions in rain at kisp. Lingering MVFR conditions at
kewr kteb should improve overnight.

Expect bknVFR CIGS through the day on Sunday, with NE flow
turning SE in the afternoon. Played CIGS more on the pessimistic
side, but they could be higher than forecast if drier air works
in from the ne, especially at the ct terminals. If the more
optimistic scenario plays out, winds at coastal terminals could
be more southerly then fcst as a sea breeze also develops.

As the next low approaches, showers with MVFR conditions should
make it to the nyc metro terminals after 02z-03z mon.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late Sunday night-Monday night Showers likely. MVFR conds
likely, ifr CIGS possible. A rumble of thunder also possible
late Sunday night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night Vfr.

Thursday Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with local
MVFR or lower conds.

Marine
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the waters around
long island through Sunday night, will limits sustained winds
to 15 kt or less, ocean seas to 4 ft or less, and seas waves on
the non- ocean waters to 1 ft or less through then.

Winds, gusts, and seas will remain below small craft levels Monday
through Thursday. However, ocean seas may approach 5 feet Wednesday
night into Thursday as an increasing southerly flow develops ahead
of a cold front. Waves of low pressure passing through the waters
will bring a chance of thunderstorms Monday and again Thursday into
Thursday night.

Hydrology
Currently expecting up to an inch in spots across southern
portions of the CWA and less than 1 4 of an inch of rainfall
elsewhere through morning.

An additional 1 2 to 1 inch of rainfall is likely from Sunday
night into Monday night, with locally higher amounts possible.

There is a small chance for minor flooding or urban and poor
drainage areas, if any experience locally heavy rainfall.

More rain is possible late Wednesday night through Friday.

Significant hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
With the approach of the new moon (sun), tides will run high
this weekend into early next week. Positive tidal departures of
1 2 to 1 ft will be needed for minor flooding during the night
time high tides during this time.

Minor flooding is possible starting with the high tide cycle
this evening, mainly in the western south shore bays of long
island. A bit more widespread minor flooding is possible Sunday
night with an E NE flow expected. The threat for minor flooding
could continue into Monday, with E NE flow progged to continue.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Maloit met
near term... Bc maloit met pw
short term... Maloit
long term... Met
aviation... Goodman
marine... Maloit met pw
hydrology... Maloit met
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 15 mi57 min E 7.8 G 14 72°F 83°F70°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi45 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 1006.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 22 mi42 min E 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi45 min NE 7 G 8.9 75°F 76°F1007 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 30 mi42 min SSW 3.9 G 7.8 73°F 71°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi57 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi45 min S 5.1 G 5.1 71°F 74°F1006.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi67 min ENE 14 G 16 72°F 77°F2 ft1005.3 hPa (-2.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi67 min NNE 19 G 21 71°F 76°F2 ft1006 hPa (-1.9)69°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi45 min 71°F 76°F1006.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi2 hrsE 85.00 miRain76°F70°F82%1006.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi61 minESE 46.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist73°F71°F94%1006.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY18 mi64 minSSE 45.00 miRain Fog/Mist71°F69°F94%1007 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi65 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast75°F70°F84%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW7N4CalmN5N9NE7CalmNE33S8S8S63S8S6SE6SE5SE5S6S4CalmE8E3
1 day agoNW3W4W3W6NW4NW7NW6NW11N6NW10NW7W7W9SW8NW13NW12NW7SW8SW6SW6SW5SW7SW5SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5SW4S6S11S8S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:55 AM EDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.26.14.42.50.8-0.4-0.8-0.11.43.24.96.26.76.14.83.21.60.2-0.401.43.25.16.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:58 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.76.54.62.50.7-0.6-0.80.11.73.75.66.97.26.55.13.31.50.1-0.40.21.73.75.77.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.