Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Head of the Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday April 26, 2018 1:59 AM EDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 4:28AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1239 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Areas of fog late. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1239 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves across the waters with a trailing cold front also passing through early this morning. The low will move into new england today. Another low will move through on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Saturday. High pressure will then be in control early to mid next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Head of the Harbor, NY
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location: 40.91, -73.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260544
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
144 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure passes to the north of the area, with a trailing
cold front also passing through. The low will move into new
england today. Another low will move through on Friday,
followed by a cold frontal passage late Saturday. High pressure
will then be in control early to mid next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Scattered shower coverage noted on radar, and coverage should
decrease early this morning before ending by 6 am.

Areas of fog will scour out as winds turn toward the west behind
the low and front. Fcst low temps tonight are on the warmer
side of the MOS envelope, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Gusty wnw flow expected along with mostly sunny skies for the
most part after the mid level shortwave passes through. A closed
mid level low passing just to the north may help provide enough
lift for sct-bkn CU development in the afternoon, more so
inland.

With downslope flow and mixing to between 875-850 mb expect
high temps to approach 70 in NE nj and rise well into the 60s
most elsewhere.

Thu night should start mostly clear, then become mostly cloudy
overnight as another low begins to approach from the sw. Low
temps should be in the 40s and lower 50s per MOS blend.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Models in good agreement with the closed low over the central
plains tracking eastward through the deep south on Thursday.

This then lifts north toward the region Friday ahead of the next
northern stream trough digging into the mississippi river
valley on Thursday. At the surface, associated low pressure
lifts northeast towards the region on Friday. This is a
progressive system, with what looks like a quick hit of moderate
rain (1 4 to 3 4 inch, locally 1 inch). Still uncertainty on
where the axis of the heaviest rain will be, due to differences
in track of low pressure and consequently placement of best
lift instability axis.

Models then in general agreement with partial phasing of the
southern energy and digging northern stream trough to develop
a deep trough over the great lakes into the NE us this weekend.

Some spread in intensity amplitude of this trough, but general
consensus on its axis moving through Sunday. At the surface, an
associated cold front moves through late Sat sat evening, with a
couple of weak troughs moving through Sunday. Seasonable temps
on Saturday in WAA ahead of the front, dropping back down to a
few degrees below seasonable on Sunday with cold pool and
instability cloud cover.

In its wake, deep layered ridging builds in for early next week,
with potential for unseasonable warmth by midweek as ridging
takes a bermuda position. Temps moderate to seasonable on Monday
and then above seasonable on Tuesday. Potential for the first
real warm spell of the season mid to late week, with high temps
in the 80s for nyc nj metro and interior, and well into the 70s
along the coast.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
A cold front passes through this morning with low pressure
tracking to the canadian maritimes by Thursday evening.

Ifr or less through at least 08z. Light rain drizzle continues
through then, with some pockets of moderate rain possible.

Outside of times when areas receive moderate rain, expect
widespread vlifr fog across most, if not all terminals except
kswf. Conditions should improve to MVFR 8-11z from W to e, then
toVFR from 10-13z from W to E as well.

Light and variable winds become w-wnw 8-11z from W to e. Wind
speeds increase to 10-15kt during the morning push, with gusts
of 15-20kt developing towards the end of the morning push. Winds
back to the wsw-sw at kjfk and kisp Thursday afternoon,
remaining W to wnw elsewhere. Wind gusts should abate late
Thursday afternoon early Thursday evening.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Thursday night Vfr.

Friday MVFR or lower possible in rain.

Friday night-Saturday night MVFR possible in isolated-
scattered showers, otherwiseVFR.

Sunday-Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g15-25kt possible.

Marine
Sca remains in effect for the ocean for elevated seas.

Marine dense fog advy remains in effect for a few more hours.

Cold FROPA will shift winds to the w-nw and quickly scour out
the fog early this morning.

Sca seas likely continue on the ocean waters into Saturday
night, possibly lingering into Sunday, due to lingering se
swells from the mid week system, and then added contribution of
wind waves and southerly swells from a quick moving low on
Friday and winds ahead and behind cold frontal passage Sat eve.

Marginal SCA winds possible, mainly eastern waters Friday
aft eve on the eastern flank of low pressure.

Hydrology
Dry weather returns today.

Qpf 1 4 to 3 4 inch possible Friday with a quick moving low. No
hydrologic issues anticipated.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Goodman nv
near term... Jc goodman pw
short term... Goodman
long term... Nv
aviation... CB maloit
marine... Goodman nv pw
hydrology... Goodman nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi48 min SE 1 G 1.9 51°F 47°F1002.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi42 min W 1 G 1.9 51°F 49°F1003.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi60 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 50°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi42 min NE 1 G 1.9 50°F 47°F1003.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi70 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 44°F10 ft1003.3 hPa (-2.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi30 min WSW 3.9 G 7.8 48°F 47°F1002.9 hPa48°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi42 min 51°F 48°F1003.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi64 minESE 30.50 miFog52°F52°F100%1003 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi64 minSSW 40.25 miFog53°F53°F100%1003.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY18 mi67 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist51°F51°F100%1003 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi68 minS 50.75 miFog/Mist53°F52°F96%1003.2 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10SE13
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SE16SE17SE11SE7S9S6SE5SE6S5S6S7W6E3
1 day agoSE3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE3SE3S6S10S11S10S15S13
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2 days agoSW3CalmCalmN4N4CalmN7E12E6SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     6.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:41 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.520.700.21.22.64.25.66.36.25.44.12.61.20.2-00.723.75.36.46.76.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM EDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM EDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.620.600.31.534.76.26.96.75.84.32.61.10.10.10.92.44.25.977.36.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.