Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:09PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:10 AM EDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1040 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday evening...
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Areas of drizzle. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers with areas of drizzle in the morning, then showers and chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of tstms in the evening. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1040 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slowly shift east through Monday. A cold front approaches from the west Monday night, slowly crossing the waters Tuesday into Wednesday before moving east of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland , PA
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location: 40.91, -75.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230121
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
921 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

High pressure will continue to drift farther out to sea tonight and
Monday. A strong cold front is forecast to slowly move through our
region later Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to develop along the
front and it should pass over or near new england and southeastern
canada Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure follows for Friday and
Saturday, then another cold front may approach from the west on

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
High cloudiness continues to move across the region this evening
well in advance of a strong cold front. A light southeasterly flow
will increase the low-level moisture through the overnight, however
this process looks to be gradual. There are even some spots of a mid
level cloud deck. Overall, maintained the trend of increasing clouds
through the overnight and this will probably play a role in how much
fog develops. We kept the fog as patchy for now given some
uncertainty in how widespread it will become especially closer to
daybreak. It is possible that at least patchy dense fog develops
very late tonight. The model forecast soundings indicate that a
stratus deck develops overnight for much of the area, as cooling in
the boundary layer significantly strengthens a low-level inversion
with some moisture pooling beneath it. Some indications of this
already starting to take place across far southeastern new jersey,
as of 01z. As a result, some fog with areas of low clouds are
maintained with slightly more cloudiness indicated especially
north and west of the fall line given the light southeasterly
low-level wind component.

Temperatures once again have dropped quickly earlier this
evening despite the presence of higher level cloudiness, however
dew points are low enough combined with light to calm winds.

This temperature drop should slow and start to level off
overnight as some fog and or low clouds develop with also some
rise in the surface dew points occurring. The hourly temperature
grids were adjusted based on the latest observations, then some
tweaks were made thereafter to account for trends.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
A strong cold front will continue to advance eastward toward our
region in the wake of the departing high pressure. This will result
in a strengthening southeasterly flow to occur allowing for an
uptick in the moisture advection. Some fog (possibly locally dense)
and low clouds persist in the morning, with the fog dissipating
before the low clouds. Some sunshine is expected to break through at
times in the afternoon Monday. Several models are also hinting at a
few light showers across mainly northern nj and eastern pa, so have
continued with slight chance pops in the afternoon. The main shower
activity will hold off until Monday night.

The low clouds may keep temperatures down a bit from what the mos
guidance has, particularly for northern nj and pa. Still, highs
should reach the mid 70's in DELMARVA and 60's to low 70's in the
lehigh valley, poconos and northern nj. There should be enough
mixing in the afternoon to allow the southeast surface wind to
increase some.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
A deepening mid level long wave trough will be in the process
of settling over the eastern half of the country on Monday night
and Tuesday. A negative tilt short wave is forecast to lift
northeastward on the front side of the trough and its axis
should pass over our region early on Tuesday.

A slow moving cold front is expected to extend from the eastern
great lakes to the eastern gulf of mexico on Monday evening.

The boundary will move eastward and it should arrive in our
region late on Tuesday.

The slow forward progress of the front will allow it ample time
to tap into gulf moisture and eventually into some atlantic
moisture as it approaches and moves into our region. As a
result, we are anticipating moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

We have increased our rainfall projections mainly into the 1 to
2 inch range with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the
recent dry spell, we are not expecting any flooding issues other
than some poor drainage flooding. Leaf-clogged drains will
enhance the possibility of ponding of water on roadways.

We remain under a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

The negative tilt short wave and the approaching cold front
suggest the potential for a qlcs set-up. If a narrow convective
line develops, it should work its way from west to east across our
region from late Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain is anticipated to linger near the coast
into Tuesday evening until the front begins to make its way out
to sea.

The cold front and its associated cloud cover and precipitation
will continue to move slowly eastward on Wednesday as a wave of
low pressure develops along the boundary and moves up into new
england and vicinity. The axis of the mid level long wave trough
is forecast to pass overhead on Thursday and it should finally
kick the surface system well to our east.

Surface high pressure is expected to begin building into our
region from the southwest and south on Thursday before it slides
out over the ocean on Friday and Saturday. We should experience
some clear for late in the week and the early part of the

The model guidance differs in handling the timing of our next
cold front. It appears as though it will arrive around Sunday,
so we will indicate a chance of showers at that time.

Daytime temperatures should be near 10 degrees above normal on
Tuesday. Readings are forecast to drop back near normal on
Wednesday. Slightly below normal temperatures are anticipated
for Thursday with readings rebounding to normal or slight above
normal for Friday and the weekend.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR should continue through about 06z, then areas of
low clouds and or fog is anticipated to develop at all terminals.

The lowest conditions may not occur until closer to daybreak,
as ceilings and or visibilities lower to ifr or even lifr. The
timing of when the conditions drop to and below MVFR is of
lower confidence. Winds mainly light and variable to calm.

Monday... Areas of MVFR ifr ceilings and ifr lifr visibilities with
fog in the morning, then the visibilities improve toVFR by about
15z. The ceilings should improve toVFR at most terminals by early
afternoon. The timing and exact degree of restrictions will be fine-
tuned with subsequent TAF issuances. Light and variable winds,
becoming southeast and increasing to around 10 knots especially in
the afternoon.


Monday night through Tuesday night... Conditions lowering to
MVFR and ifr in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain are possible, along with a south wind gusting around
25 or 30 knots.

Wednesday... A chance of morning showers with conditions
improving toVFR.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Wave heights look to be in a fairly stable state of around two feet
through Monday morning, then build in the afternoon but stay under
four feet. Winds will be at or below 10 knots into Monday, then
increase to around 10 knots during the afternoon. Some fog is
possible overnight and Monday morning especially nearshore.


Monday night and Tuesday... A small craft advisory is in effect
for southerly wind gusts near 30 knots. Localized gale force
gusts are possible on Tuesday. Waves on our ocean waters should
build to 7 to 10 feet.

Tuesday evening... A small craft advisory may need for southerly
wind gusts near 30 knots. Waves on our ocean waters are
forecast to be 7 to 10 feet.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday night... A small craft
advisory may be needed on our ocean waters for wave heights of 5
to 6 feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest around 10
to 20 knots.

Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and has since been
recovered. Its return to service date is still unknown, though
we'll try to have an answer Monday afternoon.

Weather observations at kvay should be incomplete through Monday

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Gorse
short term... Gaines gorse
long term... Iovino
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gaines iovino

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 53 mi40 min 61°F 65°F1027.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 56 mi40 min E 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 62°F1027.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi40 min SSE 5.1 G 7 64°F 1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ20 mi16 minN 0 mi49°F48°F97%1027.2 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA22 mi17 minS 910.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1026.9 hPa

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm53SW7S6SW83CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW5W5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N66N543N73CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
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Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM EDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:44 PM EDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:57 AM EDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.