Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:39PM Saturday February 24, 2018 2:59 AM EST (07:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 924 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of sprinkles late this evening and early morning. Patchy fog late this evening and early morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 924 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes early Saturday. A low pressure system approaches for Saturday, with its warm front moving towards the region Saturday night. A low develops along it and this moves across Sunday. High pressure builds from the midwest Sunday night and remains in control through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook, NY
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location: 40.92, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240450
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1150 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front moves across overnight, followed by a cold front
early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches for
Saturday, with its warm front moving towards the region Saturday
night. A low develops along it and this moves across Sunday.

High pressure builds from the midwest Sunday night and remains
in control through the middle of next week. A frontal system
then approaches for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The fcst is generally on track, although the warm front is
still a good distance from the area and will be slower to
arrive than previously fcst. The front will be moving across
overnight as winds switch to a more southwest to west flow.

Expecting some fog across the region for at least the first
half of tonight before that more westerly flow develops. The 00z
okx sounding indicated a saturated airmass up to about 4500 ft.

This deep moist layer is likely limiting the density of the
fog. Still, with winds slackening off significantly there could
be some pockets of dense fog to develop. Drier conditions on
that more westerly flow can be expected for the remainder of the
night.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday
This weekend features a strengthening upper level jet from baja
california extending northeast through the great lakes and northern
new england. The jet itself approaches closer to the region on
Sunday, with the local region getting close to the right front quad
of the upper level jet.

The mid levels convey a ridge moving in with its axis oriented
southeast to northwest with a nearly steady height tendency Saturday
into Saturday evening. A shortwave from the southwest us will travel
and pivot into the great lakes Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Then for Sunday, this shortwave further pivots into ontario.

At the surface, another low pressure system developing in the south
central us will have its associated warm front approaching. The day
starts out dry but there will be increasing chances of rain in the
afternoon from southwest to northeast as this warm front approaches
and with some forecast increase in isentropic lift aloft. Used a
blend of mav and ecs MOS for high temperatures, getting well into
the 50s as a light northwest flow acts as a downslope for adiabatic
warming from higher temperatures aloft.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the bulk of the rainfall. The
warm front will be approaching and with the parent low heading into
the western great lakes and deepening, an increasing easterly flow
will take place. This will load the atmosphere with more moisture as
layer precipitable waters are forecast to increase to 1.1 to 1.4
inches. This will facilitate at times moderate to perhaps heavy
rain.

For temperatures, Saturday used the relatively warmer blend of
mav and ecs MOS as well as nam12 2 meter temperatures, mid 30s to
near 40. For Sunday, with rain much of the day used gmos with 2
meter temperatures of GFS and ecmwf, showing a range from the low
40s to near 50.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The general north american pattern of troughing in the west and
ridging east of the rockies looks to continue into next week.

The upper pattern starts to diverge mid to late week next week
as a closed low pres system moves onshore in california and
continues into the plains. The ec is much slower than the gfs,
but has support from the cmc, therefore this idea was preferred,
but there is low confidence in the details late next week since
there is also large spread in the GEFS and ecens.

In terms of sensible weather, dry weather returns Sun night as
low pres departs and high pres builds from the midwest. The high
will remain in control through the middle of next week,
resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wed night as a WAA pattern ensues,
although due to the aforementioned uncertainty in the upper
pattern, rain could very well hold off until Thu night. Have
scaled back on the previous forecasts pops a bit in light of
the 12z data and the large amount of uncertainty. At this time,
atmospheric profiles suggest pcpn starts as rain, with colder
air aloft working in late Thu night fri. This may be enough for
a brief period of a wintry mix across locations N of nyc.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure builds to the north through Saturday as a frontal
boundary stalls south of the area. Another area of low pressure
will approach from the west Saturday into Saturday night.

Conditions are predominantly ifr-lifr in stratus and fog
tonight, but gradual improvement is anticipated overnight as
high pressure and drier air move back in from the north.

Vfr conditions will then prevail for most of Saturday until
evening, when rain begins to move back into the area from the
west.

Winds diminish tonight, possibly becoming light and variable
before becoming NW Saturday morning. Winds then shift to the ne
Saturday evening.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night-Sunday MVFR ifr in rain. E-se wind 10-15kt,
g20-25kt.

Sunday night-Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
With a decreasing pressure gradient, winds and seas are
expected to continue to decrease as well into tonight. The more
westerly flow late tonight will briefly increase winds but wind
gusts will remain just below SCA criteria. With further
offshore flow, expect sub SCA conditions to continue.

Sub-sca conditions are expected to continue through Saturday
evening. Easterly flow then strengthens into Saturday night
between the departing high and an approaching area of low
pressure, leading to SCA conditions with the possibility of
gales as well on the ocean for Sunday morning.

Hazardous ocean seas are expected to continue into mon, with sub-
advsy conds thereafter with high pressure building from the
west.

Hydrology
Around 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain will be possible late
Saturday into Sunday. There may be locally higher amounts
especially in any areas of orographic lift with the higher
terrain. Ponding of water and minor nuisance flooding could be
localized for Sunday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 24 jm
near term... Jmc jm
short term... Jm
long term... 24
aviation... Md 19
marine... 24 jm
hydrology... 24 jm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi48 min W 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 37°F1020.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 7 38°F 40°F1020.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 30 mi60 min W 7.8 G 9.7 38°F 1 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi42 min NW 12 G 13 43°F 38°F1022.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi70 min W 14 G 16 42°F 42°F4 ft1021.9 hPa (-1.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi42 min 42°F 40°F1022 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 48 mi30 min W 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 39°F1021.6 hPa41°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi64 minW 75.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1020.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi64 minW 75.00 miFog/Mist42°F42°F100%1020.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT18 mi68 minWSW 52.50 miFog/Mist38°F37°F97%1020.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY19 mi67 minWSW 76.00 miFog/Mist42°F41°F96%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE5NE5NE5NE9NE9E7E9E11E10E11E10E7E11
G17
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1 day agoN10N11N10N13NE13NE11NE12NE10NE9E8E10NE6E6NE9NE6NE11N10NE9NE8NE6NE6NE10NE8NE9
2 days agoSW8SW9SW12SW11SW10SW9SW8SW8SW10SW12SW9SW10SW10SW8SW10
G16
SW10SW8SW8N4N9N8N5N6N9

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:32 AM EST     6.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:11 PM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.52.84.25.466.15.44.12.71.50.60.20.51.42.744.95.45.24.33.121

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 AM EST     6.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:13 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     5.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.534.55.86.56.65.94.63.11.70.70.10.31.32.74.15.25.95.74.83.52.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.