Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:18PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:43AMMoonset 6:39PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 412 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 412 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will move across the waters tonight into early Saturday and become stationary south of long island as waves of low pressure move along it from late Saturday through early Tuesday. High pressure builds in for later Tuesday and Wednesday. Another low and cold front approach Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212027
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
427 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
Hot and dry weather expected through Saturday. A weak cold
front will settle south of the area tonight. This front will
remain nearly stationary south of the area Saturday and
Saturday night. A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity
Sunday morning, and remain in the area Sunday, as high pressure
builds to the north. The high drifts off the northern new
england coast Sunday as a wave of low pressure moves eastward
along to the boundary into Tuesday. High pressure will follow
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure follows
for Wednesday night into Friday through Thursday. A cold front
will approach Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Fast zonal westerly flow in the mid levels will help push a weak
cold front to south of long island late tonight into early
Saturday.

The front appears to have a lack of moisture associated with it.

Models are not displaying much of any QPF with it as it moves
across late tonight. Much of the atmosphere above 5kft will have
a dry westerly flow so just expecting a brief increase in
clouds with the front.

Winds will become light and variable tonight. Lows will be on
the warmer side with the clouds increasing, mid 60s in rural
locations to upper 70s in the nyc urban heat island.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Fast zonal westerly flow aloft will remain Saturday and Saturday
night. The heights will be lowering slightly overall during this
timeframe. At the surface, the front will become stationary
south of long island. A shortwave aloft will help with
development of low pressure along the front that will move in
Saturday night into early Sunday.

Another hot dry day is expected with a little more humidity as
well, pertaining to absolute humidity here as diagnosed from
slightly higher dewpoints. A weaker pressure gradient will
result in lighter winds during the day, giving way to typical
sea breeze circulations. The nyc metro area is still going to
initialize Saturday with relatively warmer temperatures.

Therefore, taking this into account, heat advisory criteria is
expected to be nearly met for the greater nyc metro area
encompassing adjacent zones in northeast nj. Cannot rule out
some 95 degree heat indices within the aforementioned area but
majority of heat indices probably in the 91 to 94 range.

For Saturday night, the weather becomes more unsettled with the
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the
more recent model trends show a southward trend to showers and
thunderstorms with the wave of low pressure along the front.

Omega increases substantially at 700mb providing extra lift
despite marginal instability. A more southward shift so that
the highest chances Saturday night are along the southern coasts
of the forecast region and nyc. High precipitable waters will
be present so heavy rain will be possible with some
thunderstorms. In addition, gusty winds are possible with some
thunderstorms depending on the strength of the wave of low
pressure. Lows taken from warmer guidance of gmos and mav,
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
There remains some uncertainty as to the track of an ongoing
convective complex at the beginning of the forecast period, that
will be moving out of the upper midwest. At this time the trend
has been for high pressure to be building to the north pushing a
frontal boundary farther to the south. As a result the forecast
of the complex is also farther to the south Sunday morning. So
have lowered the probabilities overall Sunday, with the lowest
chances to the north. If the high pushes farther to the south
the area may be dry through Sunday.

Then a shortwave will be moving through the northern stream,
across the great lakes Sunday into Sunday night, and the move
slowly through the northeast Monday into early Tuesday as
ridging builds over the western atlantic. Again there remains
some uncertainty with the timing of this shortwave. Also there
is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Sunday.

With an easterly flow developing as the surface high builds to
the north, the area will become more stable under a marine
influence. So while there will be marginal destabilization and will
keep mention of thunder, and with the timing more Sunday night into
Monday, there is more uncertainty with the development of severe
weather with these storms.

Weak ridging will build to the west later Tuesday into Wednesday
as high pressure builds to the west. The upper flow becomes
progressive Wednesday as the western atlantic ridge weakens and
drifts east. Yet another shortwave and cold front will affect
the area Wednesday night into Friday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Surface trough will reside in close proximity to the terminals
today before passing offshore late tonight. Weak high pressure
follows for Saturday morning with a warm front approaching from
the SW in the afternoon.

Vfr through the period. W-nw winds early this afternoon
gradually back around to a more w-sw direction at around 10 kt
with occasional gusts 15-17 kt. Local seabreeze influences at
kjfk, kgon, kisp, and kbdr will allow for some variability
around a SW direction. Light northerly flow develops late
tonight behind the surface trough.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi46 min WSW 12 G 14 83°F 1 ft74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi46 min WNW 13 G 17 87°F 80°F1010.5 hPa (-0.4)
44069 31 mi46 min WSW 14 G 16 82°F 83°F75°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi56 min 79°F 77°F3 ft1010.7 hPa (-0.9)75°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi46 min WSW 6 G 8.9 89°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi31 min W 11 G 13 76°F 1009.5 hPa69°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi46 min W 5.1 G 12 86°F 67°F1009.7 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi53 minSW 810.00 miFair87°F68°F53%1011.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi50 minWNW 810.00 miFair93°F64°F38%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7SW7SW9W8NW4NW6NW5W4CalmCalmCalm3NW76NW7N65N8S5SW8SW11
G16
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SW8
1 day agoSW12
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SW9SW6SW6SW4--SW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm3S3SE5S7SE7S7S8S8S10SW9
2 days agoSW9SW7SW6SW65SW7SW5SW5SW4SW6SW5SW4S4SW7SW9
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:40 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:00 PM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.31.50.70.1-0.20.10.81.62.32.72.82.51.91.30.80.300.31.12.133.63.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:00 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:19 PM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:43 PM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.1-0.40.51.21.41.20.7-0.2-1-1.6-1.8-1.5-1-0.40.51.51.91.91.50.6-0.5-1.3-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.