Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 25, 2017 12:05 PM EDT (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 930 Am Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain late this morning and early afternoon. Chance of light rain and drizzle this afternoon. Areas of fog this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the evening. Showers and tstms or chance of drizzle in the evening...then showers and tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning...then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 930 Am Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure develops across the mid atlantic today, then tracks through the waters tonight and into the maritimes on Fri. Weak high pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday...then slides offshore Saturday night. An area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Sunday and Sunday night...then passes to the south on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251426
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1026 am edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will deepen over the mid-atlantic today, track through
the tri-state region tonight and into the maritimes on Friday. A
broad area of high pressures builds in for the first half of the
weekend, then a slow moving frontal system will bring the potential
for showers from Sunday into Tuesday.

Near term through Friday
Overall rainfall this morning not too impressive with the local
area split between two heavier batches of rain, one off to the
nw and one offshore. Rain intensity is expected to remain on the
light side for the remainder of the morning with just a few
pockets of moderate rain. Much of this rain is due to isentropic
lift warm advection. No thunder is expected with this activity.

Middle level drying from the south will serve to cut off
widespread rain this afternoon. Have adjusted pops and wx grids
to account for this trend, and included mention of a chance of
light rain or drizzle as the lowest 5,000 feet remain saturated.

Areas of fog are also possible this afternoon.

Easterly winds will be highest this morning with gusts as high
as 25-30 mph, strongest near the coast. Winds will gradually
weaken this afternoon as the pressure gradient slackens.

Attention then turns to the h5 low, which moves over tonight.

Initially middle levels look to dry to support anything more
than light rain or drizzle, but then significant dpva and lapse
rates from h85 to h4 range avg around 6.5c km. The models all
produce convective pcpn. As a result, showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected overnight.

The upper low reaches the gulf of me on fri. This will allow
for decreasing coverage and intensity of showers through the
day. The downslope flow could allow for clearing, especially
along the coast, by the end of the day.

Temps will be below normal today, then will nudge closer on fri
as the rain ends. A blend of the guidance and raw model data
was used.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Weak ridging builds in Fri ngt and Sat which will attempt to
produce fair weather. There is a suggestion of shrtwv energy
swinging thru on sat. If this materializes, isold-sct shwrs will
be possible. A rainy day however is not expected attm. A broad
upr lvl low then drops into the midwest, producing SW flow aloft
across the fcst area sun. This will produce an increasing
chance for shwrs, particularly Sun aftn thru Sun ngt.

Temps will remain close to or blw normal thru the period. The
superblend was used.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
The upr low over the midwest will drive a slow moving frontal
sys thru the region for the beginning of the week. There is
some uncertainty wrt the timing, with the ECMWF slightly faster
than the gfs. Chance pops remain in the fcst.

Weak ridging builds in Tuesday, followed by more shortwaves
rotating around the S canada closed low, which has slid a bit
farther E into hudson bay NW ontario), Tuesday night and
Wednesday - with maybe some more isolated- scattered showers.

Temperatures should be within a few degrees of either side of
normal Sunday-Monday night, then run above normal Tuesday-
Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
An area of low pressure will move across the region through the taf
period.

Ifr lifr conds developing this morning in band of light to
moderate rain... And expected to continue into this evening.

Steady rain moves north between 18-20z... With areas of
drizzle light rain in its wake this afternoon. Potential for
lifr visibilities this evening in fog.

Moderate potential for an area of showers and thunderstorms to
move through the region between 02z and 08z. Heavy downpours
are the main threat.

Easterly winds 10-20kt with gusts to 25kt this
morning... Weakening late this afternoon into tonight. Northwest
flow develops Friday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi125 min E 21 G 27 55°F 3 ft54°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi47 min E 7 G 13 57°F 59°F1005.7 hPa
44069 31 mi80 min E 21 G 29 56°F 63°F56°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi75 min 53°F 54°F6 ft1005.1 hPa (-1.3)53°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi47 min 54°F 53°F1006.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi47 min E 17 G 24 56°F 1004.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi50 min E 25 G 29 57°F 1004.9 hPa54°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi47 min E 9.9 G 15 58°F 54°F1006.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE6
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NE6
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S8
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G14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi72 minE 14 G 244.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F52°F93%1005.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi69 minE 8 G 153.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F55°F100%1004.9 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE14NE13
G16
E9SE8E3E9E8
G14
E8E65E9E7E10
G17
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G20
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1 day agoN10N8N44--SW3S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5E3NE3CalmE3NE6CalmNE5NE7NE7NE11NE8
2 days agoSE8
G15
SE9SE7SE8SE8SE7SE7SE74SW4W4W3NW4NW9N9N8N8N5N7N8N11N12
G16
N11N8

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:08 PM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:29 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.52.61.70.90.1-0.4-0.40.31.32.22.83.12.92.41.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.61.62.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:38 PM EDT     -1.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2-2-1.5-0.9-011.61.61.20.4-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.801.122.11.81.10-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.