Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook University, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 27, 2017 5:52 AM EDT (09:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 10:18PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 415 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt...becoming sw. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 415 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Multiple weak waves of low pressure will pass to the south through Monday...as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern canada. This high will retreat to the northeast Monday night...followed by a series of weak fronts moving across from Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook University, NY
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location: 40.93, -73.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 270820
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
420 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Multiple weak waves of low pressure pass to the south through
Monday, as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern
canada. This high retreats to the northeast Monday night. A
series of weak fronts or troughs of low pressure cross the area
Tuesday through Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in
through Friday, as a front stalls to the south of long island.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Hi-res models indicate that a convective complex currently over
ohio passes just to the SW S of the area this afternoon
(consistent with trajectory of mean 850-500 hpa flow). Do have
slight chance pops over the SW 1 5 of the CWA late this
afternoon in case convection strays a bit farther to the NE than
currently progged, but would not be surprised if entire area
stayed dry today as northern stream shortwave ridging builds to
the north.

Highs today should be near normal, with some Sun expected this
afternoon, leaned towards warm edge of guidance.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Northern stream 850-500 hpa ridging builds in tonight, as
onshore flow sets up below 900 hpa. Could end up seeing some
patchy drizzle late tonight into early Sunday morning as a
result. Lows tonight should be a few degrees above normal.

The aforementioned ridge axis transits over the area Sunday,
with moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion making for
a mostly cloudy day. Given expected cloud cover and onshore
flow, did cut back on highs to around 5-10 degrees below normal.

This was based on blending NAM ecwmf 2-meter temperatures in
with met ecs guidance and a mix down from 975-925 hpa per bufkit
soundings.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The northern stream ridge slides offshore Sunday night, allowing
for light rain to overspread most of the area with some modest
isentropic ascent (could remain dry over far eastern portions).

A northern stream shortwave rotates across the area around the
base of a closed low over ontario northern great lakes Monday.

Even with onshore flow, showalter indices are progged down to -2
to -4 by afternoon in response to fairly steep mid-upper level
lapse rates, have opted for showers, with a chance of
thunderstorms by afternoon. Given showalter indices cannot rule
out some locally strong storms and cannot 100% rule out a
severe cell or two. The main threat would be large hail - with
wet bulb zero heights progged at 8-9 thousand feet late Monday
afternoon early Monday evening. The marine inversion likely will
prevent any gusts to severe levels.

The showers with embedded thunderstorms should come to an end
from SW to NE Monday night as the shortwave trough exits to the
ne.

The closed upper low and longwave trough will be slow to move
east through the middle to late part of next week as a series
of shortwaves rotate through the trough, while at the surface
weak lows, or troughs move through the area. There remains a lot
of uncertainty with the timing and placement of the systems
through the upcoming week. As a result, there could be a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Will carry slight chance
to low chance probabilities through Thursday, highest over
northern zones, closest to the closed low any shortwaves
rotating around it. For now have gone with a dry forecast
Thursday night and Friday as the main axis of the opening
closed low is progged to lift to the northeast.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period, but there could be a brief
period of 030-035 CIGS from about 15z-18z give or take an hour
today. There will also be a slight chance of showers for the
nyc metro terminals from about 20z-23z as a weakening
disturbance passes just south.

Nw winds will diminish into this morning. Sea breezes should
develop along the coast this afternoon, reaching
klga kewr kteb khpn late this afternoon, after about 20z. Some
guidance is indicating potential for an ene rather than s
breeze to develop at klga, so will have to watch for this
potential.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Late tonight MVFR CIGS developing with some patchy drizzle.

Chance of ifr CIGS toward daybreak at khpn kisp.

Sunday MVFR and any local ifr CIGS gradually improving toVFR
by afternoon.

Sunday night Vfr, but with chance of light rain late.

Monday MVFR conds likely and ifr conds possible. Showers
likely and chance of tstms.

Monday night Conds improving toVFR by late evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday MainlyVFR. Chance of showers tstms mainly
nw of the nyc metro terminals.

Marine
Southerly swells have diminished a little more quickly than
expected, with 5 ft only at buoy 44017. Therefore the SCA for
hazardous seas will continue on the ocean E of moriches inlet
until 8 am, and has been cancelled farther west.

Se winds increasing to 15-20 kt on Mon could lead to ocean seas
reaching 5 ft again Mon afternoon evening. Otherwise, outside
of any tstms on Monday, winds seas on the waters should remain
tranquil.

Hydrology
No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are expected
through at least the middle of next week.

Tides coastal flooding
The combination of high astronomical tides and southerly swell
will keep water levels within striking distance of minor coastal
flood benchmarks for several high tide cycles into early next
week. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the high tide
cycle tonight for the south shore bays of brooklyn queens nassau,
also for the shores of westchester fairfield along western long
island sound.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am edt
Sunday for ctz009.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am edt
Sunday for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Sunday for nyz075-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am edt this
morning for anz350.

Synopsis... Maloit
near term... Maloit
short term... Maloit
long term... Maloit met
aviation... Goodman
marine... Goodman met
hydrology... Maloit met
tides coastal flooding... Goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 16 mi53 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 63°F58°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi53 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 57°F 1009.6 hPa (+0.9)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi68 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 54°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi53 min NNW 6 G 7 57°F 59°F1010.1 hPa (+0.9)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 29 mi53 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 1 ft53°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 31 mi53 min 60°F 54°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi53 min E 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 58°F1010.4 hPa (+1.1)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi63 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 56°F4 ft1010 hPa (+1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi63 min W 12 G 14 60°F 57°F3 ft1010.4 hPa (+0.7)57°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi53 min 61°F 59°F1010.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi57 minNNW 310.00 miFair55°F54°F96%1009.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1010 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi57 minNW 310.00 miFair52°F52°F100%1010.1 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair57°F53°F87%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW11NW9
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NW13NW10N6N3N3CalmNW4CalmNW4NW3
1 day agoE9
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E11E8E9E8NE9NE6NE9NE8NE6N10NE13NE11N8
2 days agoNE5E5NE5N8NE10NE10N7NE11
G17
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SE9SE6SE9SE9E9E9E9E6E9E8E12
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:43 AM EDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.37.66.75.13.11.2-0.3-1.1-0.80.52.44.35.86.76.55.43.82.10.7-0.2-0.20.82.54.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM EDT     7.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT     6.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.47.775.43.61.70.2-0.8-0.80.32.14.15.86.86.75.64.12.40.9-0.1-0.30.62.44.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.