Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jamesport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:26PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:48 PM EST (23:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:26AMMoonset 4:04PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 627 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Saturday evening...
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Snow until early morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 627 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move off the middle atlantic this evening and offshore tonight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal systems passing through the area this weekend through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamesport, NY
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location: 40.94, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 152123
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
423 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move off the middle atlantic this evening and
offshore tonight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal
systems will pass through the area this weekend through mid
week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Snow continues to overspread the tri-state area. Impacts to the
evening commute are anticipated, with potential for significant
impacts within the winter weather advisory area. No changes
were made to the headlines.

The only change made to the snowfall forecast was across
southern coastal long island where some locations could approach
4 inches. This is due to increasing potential for moderate snow
banding in conjunction with best frontogenesis this evening.

There is a bit of uncertainty in how much snow will fall across
ne nj and interior of the lower hudson valley and southern
connecticut. It is possible amounts could end up lower with
minimal impact since best lift appears to be setting up just
south, within the advisory area.

Divergence aloft is impressive as a 170-180 kt jet streak moves
across the middle atlantic. Our region will be located in the
favored left exit region for synoptic lift this evening. There
will also be interaction phasing of the northern and southern
stream, which combined with the upper jet dynamics, will
continue to organize a surface low off the middle atlantic coast
this evening and then south and east of long island overnight.

Mesoscale models continue to indicate a swath of strong 850-700
mb frontogenesis across the southern portion of the area. The
lift coincides within the dendritic growth zone which may
enhance snowfall and produce banding, especially across long
island.

Thermodynamic profiles do not show much liquid water saturation
aloft for riming, so the snow will be a dry, high ratio type
similar to what we observed Thursday morning. Ratios may be
15-18:1. Surface temperatures will fall into the middle and
upper 20s as the snow begins continues to fall.

The snow tapers off around 7-9pm in nyc and around midnight on
the east end of long island. Liquid equivalent amounts around
0.05 inches inland and close to 0.20 inches are forecast across
long island.

Clearing and increasing winds are expected tonight behind the
departing low as the pressure gradient tightens between the
strengthening departing low, and strong high pressure over the
se us. Another chilly night with lows in the ranging from upper
teens well inland to mid 20s at the coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Polar upper low pivots southeast into new england on Sat and
offshore Saturday night. Wnw CAA low flow over the great lakes,
accompanied by shortwave lift and left front of 150 kt jet
streak, should be enough to extend light snow shower activity
into the region later Sat morning through Sat afternoon. A
dusting is possible in spots, particularly NW hills.

Otherwise, breezy and chilly on Sat with abundant cloud cover
and glancing caa. Temps will likely hold in the lower to mid 30s
for much of the region, with windchills in the 20s.

Shortwave slides east Sat night, with high pressure building in
from the west. This will have snow showers tapering from W to e
early in the evening, with potential for good radiational
cooling conds for outlying areas later Sat night. Temps should
fall into the teens for outlying areas, with mid-upper 20s for
urban centers.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Models in good agreement with a fairly progressive upper
pattern in place through this period, with a series of weak
frontal systems moving through the region Sunday night through
midweek as a muted northern stream longwave trough slides from
the great lakes into the northeast.

First system of note will be Sunday night into Monday as the
closed low currently over baja mexico, shears towards the ne
ahead of a developing western us trough. Models differing in
the strength of this energy and amounts of moisture drawn
northward, but potential exists for a light precip event Sunday
night into Monday morning. Thermal profiles suggest a start as
snow or wintry mix, transitioning to rain for nyc li, but
potentially remaining a wintry mix for the interior into Monday
morning. Too early for specific details on this light precip
event, but potential exists for hazardous travel conditions
n&nw of nyc LI for Monday morning commute.

Thereafter, models in fairly good agreement with the broad bu
shallow northern stream trough approaching the region on
Tuesday and sliding through during the midweek. At the surface,
the primary low pressure system rides through quebec ontario
with trailing cold front approaching the region Tuesday night.

Overall, appears to be mainly a light QPF event for the Monday
night into Tuesday evening period, due to limited interaction
between northern and southern stream. Thermal profile suggests
precip would be mainly liquid, but could be dealing with
freezing rain across interior Monday night as cold air
typically has a tough time scouring our in this setup.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold
front for Wed thu.

Upper flow flattens and even becomes a bit ridged for Thursday
ahead of the next northern stream trough digging into the upper
plains, which should allow for a moderation in temps ahead of
next potential frontal system.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
***snow expected for evening push***
low pressure passes to the south this evening before quickly
ejecting eastward overnight.

Snow is already overspreading the area, and although initial
conditions areVFR, expect visibilities to quickly drop as snow
intensifies. Steadier snow will generally fall from around 20z, then
quickly end from west to east between 02-05z.

Expect a widespread 1-4 inches, with the highest totals across the
nyc terminals into kisp, kbdr and kgon.

Light and variable winds become westerly at 5-10 kt this evening.

Winds increase tonight with some gusts to 20kt after midnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi78 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 28°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi48 min N 4.1 G 5.1 24°F 43°F1013.1 hPa (-1.1)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi48 min 30°F 43°F1012.1 hPa (-1.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi48 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 25°F 43°F1012.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi33 min NNE 6 G 8 24°F 1011.6 hPa22°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 39 mi48 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 24°F 49°F1012.7 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi55 minNNW 40.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F23°F88%1013 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi52 minWNW 31.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F26°F96%1013 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W4W7W5W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3SE4NE3N5NE8NW3NW4
1 day agoW15
G20
SW8W7W10W11W12W12W7CalmN4NE3NE6N10N7N4N9N10NW8NW12NW15NW13
G20
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2 days agoW8W9W13
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G39
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W18
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W11

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:40 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:24 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:19 PM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.30.80.30.20.61.21.92.52.932.82.51.91.20.4-000.411.522.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:21 AM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:11 AM EST     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:21 PM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.10.81.31.51.50.90.1-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.3-0.80.10.81.11.20.90.2-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.