Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centre Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:30PM Friday June 23, 2017 3:00 PM EDT (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 7:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 149 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Isolated showers. Slight chance of tstms early, then isolated tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 149 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday. A series of weak fronts move through the area Sunday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centre Island, NY
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location: 40.94, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231813
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
213 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A warm front remains well north of the region this afternoon. A
cold front approaches tonight and moves across the area
Saturday. A series of frontal boundaries will move across the
tri-state area Sunday through Tuesday. A large area of high
pressure builds in thereafter.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A warm front is located well north of the region with a pre-
frontal trough developing in the lee of the appalachians. The
local region is in the warm sector with a warm and humid airmass
in place. Temperatures range from upper 70s to mid 80s this
afternoon although much of the region will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s.

Showers are located near and north of nyc with overall shower
activity expected to be isolated in coverage but by late
afternoon expecting scattered showers as well as thunderstorms.

These will be mostly north and west of nyc.

The clouds have been abundant so this has limited the surface
based CAPE and instability. There is some shear that increases
towards the evening as winds at 3kft increase to near 30kt. This
will allow for convection to become more organized.

The moderate risk of rip current development continues through
this afternoon, due to building southerly winds waves and a 2
ft long period SE swell.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Northern stream longwave trough continues to deepen into the
upper mississippi river valley and great lakes through the
period... With the shortwave remnants of cindy shearing northeast
towards the region late tonight into Saturday morning. At the
surface... A cold front over the great lakes will slide east
towards the region tonight... With the remnant circulation of
cindy riding NE towards the region along the front.

Leading edge of southern stream shortwave energy and pre-
frontal trough approach the region this evening. Will have to
watch for convection developing over central eastern pa this
afternoon... And whether line segments can translate east in the
moderate mid- level flow into the lower hudson valley NE nj
before instability begins to wane. A conditional low threat for
severe winds gusts exists mainly NW & W of nyc if this activity
survives.

The parade of shortwaves late evening into the overnight and
tropical airmass will keep a threat for iso convection with
heavy downpours overnight. Coastal stratus fog development
possible with high dewpoint airmass advecting across E LI se
ct late today this evening.

Main concern during this period will be approach of cold front
and remnant low of cindy late tonight Saturday morning.

Environment presents a threat for flash flooding along and just
to the south of the path of this low... With pwats in excess of
2+ inches and corfidi vectors indicating potential for slow
moving or back building convective elements. Also can't rule out
an isolated severe wind tornado threat if any MCS type activity
develops in a weak instability but high shear helicity and low-
lcl environment.

745am update... 06z guidance is indicating that this feature may
track to the south of the region. If 12z guidance continues
with this theme... The above mentioned severe flash flood threat
may end up south of the region.

Drying conditions in the wake of the cold front and cindy
circulation Saturday afternoon... With highs in the mid to upper
80s.

A high risk of rip current is likely Saturday with building
southerly swells and wind waves.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Nwp is in agreement that a broad upper level trough will remain east
of the rockies into early next week. The h5 flow then flattens from
west to east as a cutoff low pres system moves through the western
canadian provinces... Eventually consolidating with a vortex over
northern quebec. This will sharpen the trough with its axis passing
through Tue night followed by weak ridging for the remainder of the
forecast period.

In terms of sensible weather... Not a whole lot to talk about. A
few cool frontal boundaries will pass through the local
area... The first Sunday aftn eve with just a chance of isold
showers. Mid level warming will keep instability in check so no
tstms in the forecast.

The second boundary approaches on Monday and is very slow to
move through the area. It may become hung up... Before pushing
east Tue night. Despite a decent shortwave and being in the rrq
of a 120+ kt upper jet... Moisture looks very meager... Thus have
kept the forecast dry. Moisture is still limited on tue... But
there could be enough for isold showers tstms in the aftn.

Dry and seasonable weather then returns for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Low pressure tracks through eastern canada this afternoon into
Saturday morning with an associated cold front approaching this
evening and moving through the terminals 12z to 16z Saturday.

Winds will be generally from the southwest 220 true, with gusts to
around 20 kt. Sea breeze influence will keep the winds more
southerly along the coastal areas this afternoon. With the passage
of the cold front winds shift to west to northwest, to the left of
310 true, and become gusty Saturday morning.

GenerallyVFR with occasional MVFR ceilings this afternoon.

Restrictions in fog and showers develops after 06z, isolated to
scattered thunder is possible late this afternoon and this evening.

Another round of showers develops late tonight with the chance of
heavy rain and ifr visibilities.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 4 mi46 min SW 14 G 19 76°F 69°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 12 mi46 min S 14 G 23 74°F 68°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi43 min SW 12 G 19 75°F 66°F1005.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi43 min SSW 7 G 13
44069 28 mi61 min SW 18 G 21 74°F 76°F72°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi43 min 75°F 69°F1006 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi55 min SW 17 G 21 1006.6 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi43 min SW 9.9 G 19
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi43 min SSW 8 G 9.9 75°F 69°F1005.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi43 min 79°F 71°F1006.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 41 mi71 min SSW 19 G 25 69°F 67°F3 ft1006.7 hPa (-2.1)67°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi43 min SW 16 G 19 77°F 75°F1005.4 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi61 min S 9.7 G 12 74°F 1 ft71°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi2.1 hrsS 68.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1007 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi70 minSW 16 G 2610.00 miOvercast81°F72°F74%1005.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY24 mi65 minSSW 15 G 2610.00 miOvercast80°F71°F74%1006.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY24 mi70 minSSW 148.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1006.7 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S13S13
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----SW11
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1 day agoS7S7SE4S6S6S7S7S6S6SE5SE6SE6SE5S8SW7SW9SW7SW8S6S7S8S6SW7S9
2 days agoE7E7NE4E7CalmSE3SE4CalmE3E5E4E5N4NE4CalmN3N5N3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT     8.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Fri -- 11:24 PM EDT     9.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
86.13.91.80.1-0.8-0.51.13.35.57.38.17.76.34.42.40.7-0.2-0.11.43.76.18.19.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:54 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:06 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.511.10.70.2-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.300.30.81.20.90.3-0-0.3-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.