Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centre Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:43PM Monday April 23, 2018 10:54 PM EDT (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:52PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 802 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late this evening and overnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 802 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure tracks east across the western atlantic, while low pressure over the southern states works northward through the middle of the week. The low will lift across the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night, exiting to the north on Thursday. High pressure returns Thursday night with a wave of low pressure passing near the area on Friday and Friday night. A weak frontal system on then moves through on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centre Island, NY
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location: 40.94, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 232355 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
755 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure track east across the western atlantic, while low
pressure over the southern states works northward through the
middle of the week. The low will lift across the area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night, exiting to the north on Thursday.

High pressure returns Thursday night with a wave of low
pressure passing near the area on Friday and Friday night. A
weak frontal system on then moves through on Saturday followed
by sprawling high pressure building in early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Upper air pattern features a southern branch closed low working
slowly east across the tennessee valley, and an upper ridge
moving off the eastern seaboard.

Conditions will remain dry and just below seasonable levels for
overnight lows. Used a blend of the MOS with slight adjustments.

High level cloudiness ahead of the low will very slowly work
northeast. Depending on how fast the clouds and low level
moisture come in could result in some locations cooling more
quickly than others with some patchy fog as well.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday
Models are in good overall agreement in taking low pressure
over the tennessee valley northeast through Wednesday, taking
the low near or just west of nyc late Wednesday. The ECMWF is on
the slower side of the guidance.

Clouds will overspread the area from the SW during the day with
light overrunning rains developing from west to east in the
evening and becoming steadier overnight. A strong low-level jet
will enhance warm advection rains toward daybreak, with the
possibility of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon
hours. The coverage will diminish in the afternoon and may
become more convective in nature. Instability aloft though is
marginal and not surface-based.

Rainfall totals will be highest from nyc and points north and
west due to orographic enhancement with a modest SE flow. Gusts
up to 30 mph will be possible along the coast. Amounts will
range form 0.75 inches far eastern areas to 1.25 in the hills
north and west of nyc. Should the upper trough become more
negatively tilted than forecast, these amounts will likely need
to be increased due to more offshore convection and warm
conveyor belts rains working into the region
highs on Tuesday will be a bit cooler due to the cloud cover
and onshore flow, but will be milder Tuesday night for the same
reason. Highs on Wednesday will be similar.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
There are some differences in the upper pattern right out of
the long term gate Wed night that continue through the remainder
of the period. The general h5 flow consists of troughing over
eastern north america giving way to western ridging during the
second half of the weekend or early next week.

Models begin with differences in location of the upper low,
ec cmc the slowest moving with the nam GFS the fastest. Given
the scenario, have sided with the slower moving, and thus have
pops continuing bust decreasing Wed night. A wave of low pres
tracks through or near the nyc metro area Wed night with a
temporary lull in winds during the eve. This combined with a
s-se flow could keep areas of fog around into the eve, but since
winds will be shifting to the s-sw, have only gone patchy attm.

Elevated instability also appears to be present during the eve,
although its marginal so have included schc thunder.

A few areas of rain may linger into thu, especially across
northern zones, otherwise dry weather returns into Fri with weak
sfc ridging building in.

A shortwave trough tracking through the plains midweek tracks
through the SE states Thu and up the east coast on fri. All nwp,
except the GFS keeps pcpn offshore, although 12z cmc and ec have
trended westward. Pcpn remains east of the area, but is closer,
thus have schc-chc pops in the forecast to account for this.

High uncertainty with a potential frontal system impacting the
area on sat. GFS is less amplified aloft, keeping energy
associated with trough axis well to the N while cmc ec are
sharper cut off at h5. Have gone with consensus for the time
being with a schc-chc pops. Deep layered ridging then builds in
behind this resulting in dry and warm weather into next week.

Near to slightly above normal temps are expected through the
period.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure will continue move off the coast into Tuesday
afternoon. Low pressure approaches from the southwest Tuesday
night.

Se-sse winds will diminish this evening and become light and
variable outside of city terminals.

Se winds increase on Tuesday to 10-15 kt. A few gusts 15 to 20 kt
are possible in the late morning and afternoon. Winds back towards
the E Tuesday evening.

Vfr through 00z Wednesday with MVFR developing in -ra 00z-06z
Wednesday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi55 min SSW 7 G 8 49°F 48°F1032.1 hPa (+0.9)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi61 min SSW 4.1 G 7 49°F 47°F1030.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi55 min 50°F 47°F1031.7 hPa (+0.9)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi55 min SSE 9.9 G 11 48°F 1031.6 hPa (+0.9)
MHRN6 40 mi55 min SE 2.9 G 6
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi55 min 49°F 50°F1030.9 hPa (+0.7)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi55 min S 5.1 G 6 48°F 50°F1031.6 hPa (+1.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 41 mi45 min SSE 9.7 G 12 47°F 46°F1031.2 hPa44°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi55 min S 9.9 G 11 50°F 51°F1031.8 hPa (+0.5)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi55 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 46°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi62 minSSE 410.00 miFair46°F39°F79%1031.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair48°F34°F58%1030.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi64 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F37°F59%1030.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY24 mi2 hrsSSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds47°F39°F77%1031.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY24 mi64 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F43°F89%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmN4N6NE6E9E4SE11SE12E7SE11SE10SE9SE12S11S7S5S4S4
1 day agoNW4N3NE4N5N4N5N6N5N3NE4N7NE74653SE3S13S11SW13SW15SW11SW7SW5
2 days agoN7NW6NW5NW5NW4NW4NW5CalmNW4NW7N4NW9NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
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Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     7.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     7.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.22.74.56.17.37.77.25.94.42.81.40.40.31.12.74.56.17.27.36.65.23.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:19 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.60.90.70.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.