Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centre Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 7:23 PM EDT (23:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 441 Pm Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and drizzle...mainly early this evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...lowering to 1 nm or less late this evening.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less in the morning...then 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the afternoon and at night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 441 Pm Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Weakening low pressure south of the waters will track into coastal new england tonight into Thursday where it will eventually dissipate. A weakening cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday night...which will move into the area and also dissipate on Friday. Another cold front will slowly approach from the north late Friday night into Saturday...then pass through Saturday evening...followed by high pressure building from the northwest on Sunday. A warm front will approach Sunday night and lift north on Monday...followed by a trailing cold front late Monday into Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centre Island, NY
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location: 40.94, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 262134
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
534 pm edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure moves into coastal new england tonight into
Thursday. The low eventually dissipates altogether, leaving the
region with weak high pressure briefly Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. A cold front approaches late Thursday night
and moves into the region Friday but will also weaken with time.

A cold front will slowly approach from the north late Friday
night into Saturday, and pass through Saturday evening. High
pressure will briefly build in its wake from southeast canada on
Sunday. A warm front will approach Sunday night and lift north
on Monday, followed by a trailing cold front late Monday in to
Monday night. Weak high pressure will pass to the south from
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
The main story tonight will be the low clouds and fog. The upper
level low and surface low both translate east of the region,
getting into the vicinity of coastal new england by early
Thursday. With atmospheric flow staying below 15kt below 10kft
and a low level inversion at around 1-2 kft, the low level
moisture stays in place. There could be some drizzle or very
light showers but most moisture probably is manifested as fog.

Most susceptible areas will be where relatively more rain has
fallen, eastern long island and southeast connecticut where just
a little cooling this evening with light easterly flow will
help advect and further develop the fog, and it will eventually
become dense. Dense fog advisory for eastern long island and new
london county connecticut was issued for late this evening into
early Thursday morning. Other areas farther west will also get
fog but not as much dense fog. Took relatively warmer mav
guidance for lows, upper 40s to upper 50s.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday/
Fog burns off in the morning with daytime heating and as more
westerly flow develops in the atmosphere. The upper level low
moves farther east of the region as a surface low dissipates.

More of a return w-sw flow develops in the region thereafter.

Models agree on a substantially warmer day Thursday, getting
well into the 60s for a majority of the region for highs. Weak
high pressure will briefly reside in the region with dry
conditions during the day and through the first half of Thursday
night.

The next low pressure system and associated upper level trough
will be approaching late Thursday night.The upper level flow
remains SW and the parent low with the system moves northward
Friday within southeast canada while its cold front moves in and
dissipates with time. There will initially be enough vertical
lift late Thursday night into early Friday along with some
elevated instability to give the region some showers and
thunderstorms. However, this looks to be brief without producing
much rain. Outside of the rain with the flow ahead of the cold
front turning more southerly, the region will see a return of at
least patchy fog Thursday night into early Friday with more
onshore flow and inherent moisture advection. Dry conditions
return later Friday.

The overall shift will be one of a gradually warming airmass.

Temperatures trend several degrees warmer for both lows
Thursday night and highs on Friday.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
Big picture shows an amplified patter developing over the eastern
half of the lower 48, with a building upper ridge over the east and
a closed low moving from the plains states through the midwest and
into southeast canada. At first the area will be under zonal flow
aloft between the ridge to the south and an upper trough moving
across southeast canada, that will send a back door cold front
toward the area late Friday night into Saturday. A shortwave
embedded in the flow aloft could trigger a shower or TSTM late fri
night or early Sat morning, then Sat should be a partly sunny to
mostly cloudy day with temps on the warm side, with highs 80-85 from
nyc north/west and in the 70s across long island and southern ct.

Low levels look capped just above the boundary layer until late day
sat, so do not expect any precip until late day Sat with the cold
fropa, and only and isolated shower or TSTM at most.

Cooler air returns for Sat night into Sunday night, with lows in the
40s and 50s, and highs in the 60s to near 70. As the flow aloft
amplifies, a leading warm front well in advance of the surface low
over the midwest will approach, and move through some time on
Monday, the front should lift through nyc metro and points
north/west by afternoon, nut could take longer across long island
and southern ct. Then as upper ridging moves east, cold front
should pass through late day Monday into Monday night, with showers
and a few tstms. Do not expect strong convection with the cold fropa
attm, but a faster timing per 12z ECMWF could yield a brief window
for this to occur late day Monday from nyc north/west.

Dry wx with near to slightly above seasonable temps expected for tue
into wed, with the weakening low passing well north, weak surface
high pressure passing to the south. Zonal flow aloft will also
become re-established by wed, that could lead to late week precip
chances just beyond the forecast period.

Aviation /22z Wednesday through Monday/
Low pressure will slowly shift east this afternoon and evening.

Ceilings will continue to lower into tonight with fog
developing.

Ne-n winds around 10 kt becoming a little lighter late this
aftn. Winds eventually bcmg light and variable this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi54 min Calm G 0 54°F 50°F1008.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi54 min S 5.1 G 8.9 54°F 1007.5 hPa
44069 28 mi54 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 57°F55°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi54 min 59°F 50°F1008.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi54 min Calm G 0 59°F 1009.1 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi54 min Calm G 1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi54 min 60°F 52°F1008.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi54 min NNE 7 G 11 61°F 52°F1008.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 41 mi94 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 52°F 49°F7 ft1008 hPa (-0.0)52°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi54 min NW 4.1 G 6 56°F 53°F1008 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi84 min E 5.8 G 5.8 49°F 1 ft49°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E10
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NE4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi31 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast61°F57°F87%1008.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi88 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist60°F55°F86%1008 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi33 minNNW 45.00 miFog/Mist58°F55°F90%1008.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY24 mi88 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F57°F81%1007.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY24 mi33 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast62°F57°F84%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12
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N6N9N11NE8N11NE12NE11NE15
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NE9NE11E9NE8E6N9NE6NE4
1 day agoE4E6E6E8E4E9E10E8NE9NE10NE8NE11E12
G16
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2 days agoS11S7S6SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4SE4SE7E6SE5S9SE7SE7SE7E6

Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 11:49 AM EDT     8.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.77.45.331-0.5-1-0.11.84.26.488.47.65.93.71.70.1-0.6-01.84.26.78.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 09:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:39 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:56 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-0.8-0.400.30.61.11.10.60.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.6-0.10.20.40.91.10.80.2-0.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.