Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:37 PM   Moonset 4:06 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1046 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Today - E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy drizzle this evening. Fri - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1046 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A wave of low pressure off the mid atlantic coast will keep a frontal boundary well to the south today. High pressure will briefly build in tonight into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will then follow from Saturday afternoon into early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 181721 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 121 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will keep a frontal boundary well to the south today. High pressure will briefly build in tonight into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will then follow from Saturday afternoon into early next week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast remains on track with only minor changes needed.
Previous discussion follows.

Stacked low pressure over south central Canada will move slowly ENE today, with high amplitude upper level ridging over the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes region shifting eastward. At the surface, a weak wave of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will keep a frontal boundary well to the south.

Chances for showers will continue today, but will slowly diminish as high pressure noses in from SE Canada. This, coupled with the incoming ridge aloft, will bring in just enough subsidence to bring showers to an end over much of the area by late afternoon. Showers may transition to just some drizzle given abundant low level moisture with the maritime high building in.

The high building in with the weak low to our south will mean a strengthening easterly flow today. It does not look to be overly windy, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph along coastal sections this morning. Winds start to diminish this afternoon as the high continues to nose into the region, with the weak low well out to sea by this point.

The E flow will also mean cooler than normal temperatures, with highs only in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
The sfc high will continue building in through Friday morning as the upper ridge axis moves east, so dry conditions expected through this time frame. A cold front associated with the low in Canada will advance east, with an associated line of showers and thunderstorms over the central Great Lakes region weakening as it heads toward the eastern Great Lakes and then runs into the high over the Northeast. So just chance to slight chance for showers expected as this line moves through Friday night and Saturday morning (lingering showers for eastern areas).

Temperatures recover somewhat on Friday, with highs in the 50s.
Even warmer conditions expected for Saturday with a westerly flow and downsloping conditions expected after the passage of the cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance for highs, which are expected to be in the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the second half of the weekend and remain in control of the weather through Tuesday.

A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with an associated weak surface low and cold front. Rain chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as this system moves across the region. Drier weather returns for Thursday.

Temperatures just below normal on Sunday should rebound a few degrees from Monday through Wednesday, to near or just above normal. Temperatures fall back a degree or two below normal behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures each day will be in the upper 50s or 60s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak low pressure slowly moves southeast of the terminals through this evening. High pressure builds in tonight through Friday.

Mainly IFR conditions to start with some lingering -DZ.
Improvements to MVFR continue across southern CT terminal and should begin working their way south and west across the rest of the terminals through the remainder of the afternoon. Any lingering -DZ should come to end by this evening. Improvement to VFR is then likely first across southern CT early this evening and then the rest of the terminals overnight. Amendments are likely timing of the improving flight categories into tonight.

ENE-NE winds 10-15 kt with lingering gusts 20-25 kt early this afternoon. Gusts may start becoming occasional around 20z and should end this evening. NE winds under 10 kt are expected overnight. Winds then shift to the E Friday morning and then SE Friday afternoon, becoming 10-15 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to MVFR may occur a few hours earlier than in TAF this afternoon/early evening.

Gusts may be occasional or not occur at all this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR early, then MVFR or lower possible in the evening and at night with showers possible.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers ending in the early morning, becoming VFR. W-WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible late.

Sunday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt possible near coast in afternoon and evening.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Easterly winds will increase today with 25 to 30 kt gusts expected on all waters except NY Harbor as high pressure builds from the northeast.

Gusts diminish tonight as the high continues to build in. The non ocean waters will likely drop below 25 kt early this evening if not sooner. The ocean waters will likely have gusts over 25 kt hanging on into this evening.

Ocean seas build to 6 to 9 ft today and up to 5 ft on the far ern Sound zone (western Block Island Sound), diminishing thereafter but remaining above 5 ft on the ocean into daytime Friday. Have extended SCA for the ocean into daytime Fri.

High pressure will continue to build early next week.
This should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through at least Tue night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on Wed with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected attm.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Thu -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:41 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
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Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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