Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Weston, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:06 AM EST (13:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:59AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weston, PA
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location: 40.94, -76.14     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 161252
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
752 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A prolonged period of overcast skies with light snow will occur
today into early wendesday as a slow moving frontal boundary
edges east across the region. A few weak upper-level
disturbances will ripple northeast along this boundary,
possibly bringing periods of briefly heavier snowfall. A few to
several inches of snow will fall over the upcoming 24 to 30
hours.

A deep upper level trough will swing through the area later
Wednesday, then be replaced by a building east coast ridge next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Update...

moved the onset of the winter weather advisory across our
far SE counties up by several hours to the current time, as a
batch of light snow with 1 to 1.5sm vsbys has developed a little
further south (and will be slightly more extensive and
persistent this morning) than depicted by the past few runs of
the hrrr rap. This light snow will slicken up untreated roads
for the morning commute. No other signif changes made to
weather wind temp grids.

Previous disc...

the postive tilt trough extending southwest from the great lakes
region this morning (and an embedded clipper moving ese to the
central miss valley) will help to form a weak secondary low that
will track from the southern appalachians to the mid atlantic
coast.

Low levels of the atmosphere will gradually moisten up across
the CWA today ahead of these features with light snow becoming
more widespread, steadier, and perhaps falling at moderate
intensity for brief periods across central and SE pa this
afternoon into tonight as the thermally direct re region of a
130-140 kt upper level jet sets up across the central and se
part of the CWA and persists into the early morning hours of
Wednesday bringing persistent weak to moderate uvvel.

Coordinated with kbgm and kpbz to expand the winter weather
advisory several layers of counties to the nw, which
encompasses the central mtns and northeast zones.

A blend of the latest 03z sref, rap and 00z GEFS shows strong
clustering of individual model members between 0.20-0.30 of an
inch of liq equiv across the central ridge and valley region
with similar clustering (though slightly bi-modal with higher
amounts of almost half SREF members into the 0.4-0.5 inch range)
over the susq valley and points to the east.

These liq equivalent values and a 12-14:1 snow water ratio
equates to a general 3 or inches from the laurel highlands
northeast through kunv and kipt and kthv kmdt. The higher
terrain to the east of the susq valley (namely sullivan and
schuylkill counties) could see 5-6 inches by daybreak Wednesday.

This event will be a marginal winter weather advisory over the
laurels, central mtns and mid susq valley as the bulk of the
approx 3 or 4 inches falls over roughly a 12 to 15 hour period
this afternoon and the first half of tonight. Snowfall
will be mainly around 0.25 inch hour, but periods of near
moderate snow intensity will increase rates to around or
slightly over 0.5 inch hour.

High temps this afternoon will vary from the mid 20s across the
higher terrain of the north and west, to the upper 20s in the
central mtns, and between 32-34f across the lower susq valley.

The slightly milder temps across the SE and later onset of the
more persistent light snow with vsbys of 1-2sm will lessen the
impact across that region during much of the daylight hours
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The aforementioned upper level forcing beneath the re region of
the upper let, and associated light snow will continue through
at least the first half of tonight across the central ridge and
valley region, and linger into the day Wednesday over the lower
susq valley and far eastern zones. Any snow left across the nw
mtns will be spotty and very light and intermittent as the jet
axis shifts east of that area with broad mid to upper level
subsidence and drying developin. Light wnw flow of colder air
will act as the lone factor for some light snow INVOF kbfd and
points west. The light snow will gradually taper off from NW to
se during the early to mid morning hours Wednesday, but could
linger til around noon Wednesday to the SE of interstate 81.

A tricky call for low temps at daybreak Wed as the deep-layer
moisture and thick-layered cloud cover will be slowly exiting to
the east, with the back edge likely near the i-99 route 220
corridor at 12z Wednesday. This will mean a moderately sharp
nw-se temp gradient of about 10f within just 10-20 miles where
some clearing is possible.

Mins will range from the low-mid single digits across the laurel
highlands and NW mtns to the low teens in the central mtns, and
around 20f in the se.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Mianly dry and quite cold conditions persist Wednesday night
under westerly flow - that will gust frequently between 20-30
mph Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds over
the lower ohio valley and SE states, while a strong north-south
pressure gradient resides across the midwest, great lakes
region, and upper ohio valley into pa. Gusts over the western
mtns could be around 40 mph (but probably not reaching wind
advisory criteria of 46kt gusts).

Conditions still look dry for Thursday into Friday. Winds shift
more to the west across the northwest on Thursday, thus more of
a warm advection set up there. The coldest push of air is down
the tn vly on wed.

Temperatures by the weekend will be well above normal, as the
upper lvl ridge builds. Took out rain and snow for Saturday.

00z ec has next system so strong over the plains that the cold
front gets push well east of the upper lvl system by late
Monday. Went with a dry fcst aft this.

This warm up not fcst to have dewpoints much above the lower
40s, thus not expecting a lot of heavy rain. More information
in hydro section below.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Area of light snow has developed out ahead of main wave over the
lower susq, which will bring ifr restrictions there through mid
morning before improvement to MVFR for much of the day.

Elsewhere, light snow has persisted across the region with
generally mfvr conditions along with occassional dips to ifr
mainly due to variable visibilities. This will continue into
midday, until a wave of low pressure swings through which will
kick off a widespread light to moderate snow and bring along a
periof of ifr restrictions. This area of snow should begin to
develop from the SW around 15z and spread across northwestern
2 3rds of CWA by 18z. The lower susq may not see snow intensity
increase until late day (or even early evening at lns) based on
hi-res model precip progs. But it will eventually bring ifr
restrictions there as well for tonight into early Wed as trough
lifts through - while conditions improve from the west behind
the trough.

Ceiling restrictions linger over the western higher terrain
along with scattered snow showers for remainder of wed.

Otherwise, conditions will return toVFR. Thursday looks to be
breezy with gusts to 15-25 mph.

Outlook...

wed...VFR SE half, but ceiling reductions and intermittent vsby
restrictions across the northern and western mtns as a result
of isolated snow showers.

Thu-sat..MainlyVFR.

Hydrology
The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Several cold days
into mid week will form additional ice as stream flow and open
channels decrease. Another warm up by the weekend. Dewpoints
for this warm up much less than the event last Friday.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for paz012-
018-019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049-050.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for paz036-
051>053-056>059-063>066.

Synopsis... Lambert
near term... Lambert
short term... Lambert
long term... Lambert martin
aviation... Rxr
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 87 mi49 min 29°F 32°F1032.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 87 mi49 min 30°F 34°F1032.5 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA35 mi73 minN 03.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F21°F91%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from AVP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE54N6Calm4SE4E5SE53CalmCalm343CalmCalmE4CalmCalm3SW4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN10N5N6N9N9N8N9NE8N8N5N6NE5E3E3CalmE3Calm3NE5NE5NE6NE5NE7N6
2 days agoN18
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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Tue -- 12:34 AM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:50 PM EST     5.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.95.14.43.42.31.30.4-0.3-0.21.43.14.45.55.95.34.43.42.41.40.2-0.40.21.73

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:10 AM EST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:28 PM EST     6.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.85.55.14.23.12.11.20.4-00.92.64.15.36.26.25.44.43.42.31.20.10.11.32.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.