Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 11:41 AM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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FXUS61 KCTP 162135 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 535 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Periods of rain Wednesday-Friday with limited/no flood risk -Weekend cooling trend; monitoring frost/freeze potential

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Only the high clouds are around now, and they will take a little while to thicken up. Warm advection will finally bring numerous SHRA developing over and moving into the wrn mtns. Temps will dip into the 30s again in the NW, but won't be quite cold enough for any frost.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Rain will spread across the entire CWA from W to E in the morning. It may actually blossom more in the central counties than ends up falling over the west early in the morning. Only widely sct SHRA will be around for much of the area in the aftn.
The most will be in the NE. Overall daytime QPF looks well than less 0.25".

A strong shortwave brings SHRA/TSRA in from the upper OH Valley Wed evening. Timing looks poor for SVR wx and the progressive and relatively light intensity of the rainfall should keep any flooding to a bare minimum. WPC MRGL risk on the ERO for Day2 looks like a stretch. HRRR PMMs for 48hrs is only 0.25-0.75".
A little cooler air moves in behind that shot of convection, but it won't be too noticeable a change since the temps should be kept down Wed due to the rain happening in the middle of the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will pass through on Friday before stalling out to the south for the weekend into early next week. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm are possible Friday with the frontal passage, though rainfall generally looks to be light as the front pushes through fairly quickly. Ensembles suggest that rainfall will generally be in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with the highest amounts expected across the western mountains.

Canadian high pressure will approach the region behind the front into early next week while a series of disturbances track along the boundary that is stalled to our south. There are significant timing differences in the models with regard to these disturbances, but each will bring at least a chance of showers to the area. Some frost will also be possible Saturday and Sunday night, as light winds and mainly clear skies will support temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A nice mid Spring afternoon outside with just a few high clouds.

A warm front will push eastward toward western PA Wednesday morning, resulting in a few showers into central PA toward sunrise. These showers will spread eastward and overspread most of the Susquehanna Valley by late morning or early aft.
Conditions will lower some, but given the amt of dry air at low levels and time of day, expect most areas to be MVFR or higher.

The first batch of showers may taper to nothing for a brief time before more showers arrive later in the afternoon and evening. There could be a thunderstorm as well, mainly across the far west, closer to the warm sector. Would expect visbys and cigs to drop into IFR for brief periods Wed night and early Thurs.

Outlook...

Thu...Post-fropa wrly flow. MVFR cigs sct SHRA NW, VFR SE.

Fri...CFROPA. Occnl dips to IFR.

Sat-Sun...No sig wx.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Market Street Bridge
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Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
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Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

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