Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jefferson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:33PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:39 PM EST (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 613 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale warning in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft.
ANZ300 613 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure to the west will settle over the waters tonight. A warm front will lift to the north on Saturday, then a strong cold front will approach Saturday night. The front will sweep eastward Sunday morning as strong low pressure passes to the north and high pressure builds toward the southeast states. High pres builds in for Tue and Wed.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jefferson, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180012
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
712 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over the canadian maritimes will move farther away
tonight, as high pressure to the west moves across tonight into
early Saturday. A warm front will lift to the north later
Saturday, then a strong cold front will approach Saturday night,
and sweep sweep eastward Sunday morning as strong low pressure
passes to the north. A few weather disturbances are possible
later next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Drier air was moving into the interior sections as dew points
fall into the teens. Updated dew points and sky cover through
this evening. Winds were slowly diminishing early this evening
with the loss of heating. Fairly good radiational cooling
conditions overnight should lead to a wide range of low
temperatures.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday
Main concern will be an intensifying low moving into the ohio
valley Sat morning, then across the lower great lakes Sat night
and into the st. Lawrence valley in Sunday. An associated warm
front will lift north of the area daytime sat, with some showers
moving into the area from nyc north west in the afternoon. The
pressure gradient between the departing high and the approaching
low will quickly tighten up, with s-sw winds gusting to 25-30
mph in most places, and as high as 35 mph across long island.

Main impacts ahead of and following a strong cold trailing the
low expected Sat night into Sunday, with s-sw winds increasing
further and a band of moderate to heavy showers sweeping across
with the front overnight. Models show fairly good low level
mixing with MAX boundary layer winds from 40-55 kt, highest
across eastern long island and SE coastal ct. Do not think the
full complement of these winds will mix down to the surface, but
gusts up to 35 mph are likely inland, 40-45 mph in nyc metro
and along most of the coastline, and 50-55 mph across eastern
long island. Confidence level in seeing winds over 60 mph is not
quite high enough to warrant a high wind watch for eastern
coastal sections, but this could change with later forecasts.

Will have to watch band of moderate to heavy showers with the
cold front itself for best low level momentum transfer on the
western fringe of the low level jet.

Winds could abate somewhat right after cold fropa, then should
pick up from mid morning into the afternoon after the passage of
a strong mid level vort max, via strong downward momentum
transfer of w-nw 40-kt h9 winds to the surface, with gusts up to
or just over 45 mph likely during this time frame.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A broad area of high pressure will build into the region Monday
and Tuesday. This will produce fair weather. Superblend was
used for temperatures except for Monday night, where mex was
used to better capture radiational cooling.

Wednesday remains a bit of a question. A cold front will be
approaching from the west. In addition, there remains the
suggestion that some semblance of a coastal low will develop.

The 12z GFS is way off the southeast coast and not a factor. The
12z ECMWF is trending west and now produces a solid swath of
rain across the area. The forecast has been trended towards the
ecmwf, with low chances for precipitation included for all
areas. The rain would help to suppress high temperatures as
well. The cooler superblend was used as a result.

The cold front comes through Wednesday night. The ECMWF is much
different than the gfs, which pours the cold air into the
region. The ECMWF keeps the coldest air locked to the north of
the area, most likely due to the dynamics of the strengthening
offshore low. A blend of the models was used, however depending
on how the pattern ultimately develops, thanksgiving
temperatures could end up being roughly plus or minus 5 degrees
from the current forecast for highs. All solutions are dry for
the day however, followed by a continuation of the dry weather
on Friday.

The GFS does spin up a low along the subtropical jet and tracks
it east of the area on Friday. The ECMWF spins up something
similar on Saturday. This feature will need to be watched for
any westward trend.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure slides east of the region tonight into Saturday,
with a low pressure system approaching from the west.

Vfr through Saturday morning, with increasing potential for
rain showers and MVFR or lower conds developing late Sat into
sat evening.

Winds subside quickly through this evening. Southerly winds
increase Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Sw
winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt likely for coastal
terminals Saturday aft eve.

Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi70 min WNW 9.7 G 12 44°F 46°F24°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi55 min NW 16 G 21 46°F 3 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi55 min WNW 9.7 G 16 44°F 1 ft21°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi70 min WNW 7.8 G 12 45°F 19°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi50 min NW 18 G 21 48°F 58°F4 ft1018 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi44 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds41°F19°F43%1017.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi44 minW 510.00 miFair39°F24°F55%1017.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair41°F17°F38%1017.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY24 mi47 minWNW 610.00 miFair41°F16°F36%1018.3 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair27°F19°F72%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W11W12W11W8W12
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1 day agoE5E4E3E3E4E4SE8SE9SE10SE10SE10S12S12S13SW6W9
G14
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2 days agoN7N9NE6N5N6N6N4NE3N5N5N9N5NE6E5NE8E7E4NE7E7SE9E7E5E6E3

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Cedar Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:06 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:15 AM EST     7.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:43 PM EST     6.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.13.620.70.20.51.73.35.16.57.37.164.42.61-0.1-0.20.623.65.26.36.6

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:58 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:08 AM EST     7.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:34 PM EST     6.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
53.51.80.500.61.93.65.46.87.47.15.94.32.40.8-0.2-0.20.72.23.95.56.56.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.