Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:46PM Monday September 24, 2018 2:13 PM EDT (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:58PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1220 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1220 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from southern canada today. A warm front approaches Tuesday, lifting to the north late in the day. A cold front will then pass over the waters Wednesday night. High pressure then builds north of the region through late week, while a series of weak lows move along a stalled frontal boundary south of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 241635
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1235 pm edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered over southeastern canada and extending
down along the east coast will remain through this afternoon
into this evening. A warm front approaches late tonight and
Tuesday. The front slowly moves northward, through the area,
late Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold frontal
passage Wednesday night. High pressure then builds to the north
through late week, while a series of weak lows move along a
stalled frontal boundary to the south of the area. A stronger
area of high pressure builds from the west through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track for this afternoon. There are some breaks in
the cloud cover, mainly in the cirrus. Strato CU and stratus
were filling in as the east to northeast flow remains under the
subsidence inversion.

Strong high pressure to the north, 1040 mb, and extending down
the coast east of the appalachians, was producing a rather
strong northeast to east flow. With the high in place do not
expected much clearing through the day. Therefore, increased the
cloud cover to overcast, and lowered the high temperatures a
degree or so across the region.

As the high passes to the northeast of the region, through
northern new england and the canadian maritime, a frontal
boundary to our south begins coming back north as a warm front
late in the day into this evening. So, the precipitation field
to the south, through the DELMARVA and into extreme southern nj
will then head north again this afternoon, remaining south of
the area during the day.

There is a high rip current risk for the atlantic beaches
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The frontal boundary will continue to move north Monday night.

Precipitation should move in early Monday night from southwest
to northeast. Intensity will start of light and stratiform, but
as we head into daybreak on Tuesday, more moderate rain showers
should move into the area, especially for areas north and west
of new york city. This is the best area to see some locally
heavy rainfall as the increased easterly flow and the higher
elevations in that portion of the tri-state allows for enhanced
lifting due to orography. In fact, the weather prediction center
has placed the lower hudson valley and southern connecticut in
a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with a marginal risk
elsewhere. As the morning progresses on Tuesday, the entire area
will see moderate rain showers, with embedded heavy rainfall as
lift increases with the approach of the warm front. Some
operational models differ where the heaviest of the rain will
fall as the NAM is notably less across new york city and long
island for Tuesday morning. What they can agree is the moderate
to heavy rain will occur north and west of new york city.

Stability still looks too low for any thunderstorm development
until after the short term period.

There is a high rip current risk for the atlantic beaches on
Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The warm front lifts further north Tuesday night. The rain should
become a bit more periodic Tuesday night and Wednesday in the warm
sector as broad height falls and cooling temperatures aloft increase
deep layer instability across the area. SPC continues to have much
of our forecast area in a 15% outlook for severe wind potential due
to the low CAPE and high shear environment. The greatest potential
for any severe weather will be late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
a short wave and attendant cold front move across the area.

The front moves offshore Wednesday night with high pressure building
north of the region. The cold front eventually stalls south of the
area with a series of weak low pressures expected to travel along
the front possibly bringing another chance of precipitation to the
region on Thursday night and Friday.

A stronger area of high pressure builds into the area this weekend,
with dry weekend expected.

High temperatures on Wednesday climb into the 70s and lower 80s,
then fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s for the remainder of the
long term period.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
High pressure gradually builds into the canadian maritimes
through the TAF period. A warm front will slowly approach from
the southwest Tuesday.

Stratocu deck across the area is leading to mainly MVFR
conditions, with occasional scattering and briefVFR conditions.

Expect ceilings to lower further to ifr tonight as rainfall
moves in with the approaching warm front. Warm front moves
through tomorrow afternoon, with ceilings potentially raising
slightly to MVFR and rainfall becoming more occasional.

Winds will generally be around 10-15 kt with gusts up to
20-25kt. Gusts may initially be occasional this afternoon,
before peaking in the late afternoon with sustained winds
becoming closer to 15-20 kt. Gusty winds remain tonight into
Tuesday.

There is some indication that as the warm front moves through
tomorrow, a surface low will develop across the lower hudson
valley. If that occurs, then kswf will likely be ifr-lifr
through much of the day, with winds becoming light and variable
by afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi49 min ENE 8.9 G 13 62°F 71°F1032.7 hPa
44069 17 mi43 min ENE 19 G 23 65°F 69°F58°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi43 min ENE 6 G 12 62°F 74°F1033.3 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi58 min ENE 19 G 23 63°F 72°F3 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi83 min E 21 G 29 65°F 3 ft58°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi58 min ENE 19 G 25 72°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi43 min ESE 6 G 12 67°F 72°F1032.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi83 min E 21 G 27 66°F 69°F6 ft1030.7 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi17 minE 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast65°F55°F73%1031.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi17 minNE 8 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F54°F70%1032.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi21 minENE 1310.00 miOvercast64°F53°F68%1032.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi20 minESE 15 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F55°F63%1031.6 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E5SE7SE5SE4CalmNE4CalmCalmE4NE3NE4NE4N4N4N5NE5NE7NE8NE11NE12NE10NE13E15
G24
1 day agoN12N8
G19
NW9N6N8N6N6N5N5N6N7NE5NE6NE7NE7NE6NE5NE7E7NE8NE8NE7NE7E6
2 days ago--S13S10S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.