Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:14PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:40 PM EDT (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 158 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 158 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will dominate through tonight. A low pressure trough will then develop north and west of new york city on Saturday. Another back door cold front will pass through Saturday night into Sunday morning, becoming nearly stationary just to the south and west through memorial day. Another cold front will move through from the west on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251803
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
203 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate into tonight. A low pressure trough
develops north and west of new york city on Saturday. A back
door cold front will pass through Saturday night into Sunday
morning, becoming nearly stationary just to the south and west
through memorial day. Another cold front will move through from
the west on Tuesday, followed by building high pressure for the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No significant changes with forecast generally on track. Just a
few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations,
specifically lower temperatures a few degrees on the forks of
long island.

Otherwise, surface high pressure was off the carolina coast and
remains through today. Meanwhile an upper ridge, with the axis
to the west, will flatten as a shortwave moves out of the upper
midwest. Dry and clear conditions remain through this afternoon.

Hybrid synoptic scale sea breeze regime should lead to gusty
conditions along the coast, and temps dropping through the mid
to late afternoon, perhaps more quickly than fcst indicates.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Mostly clear skies expected tonight, with some patchy ground
fog possible mainly in the interior valleys. Lows tonight should
be near 70 in nyc and in the 60s elsewhere.

As flat upper ridging moves east, chances for tstms should
increase through the afternoon on sat. GFS way too quick to
initiate storms, almost as soon as a sfc-based theta-e ridge
develops, despite upper ridging and associated subsidence still
overhead. Mid to late afternoon a more likely time frame for
convection as pw quickly increases to near 1.5 inches.

Cape shear values are only marginally supportive of severe wx--
more telling are microburst parameters indicating potential for
pulse severe with the strongest cells mostly NW of nyc. Some
cells could produce heavy rain, especially where repeat training
can take place. This may become more likely toward evening and
into Sat night as another back door cold front approaches and
corfidi vectors shorten.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A shortwave trough moving across the great lakes and into the
northeast from Saturday night through Sunday night will interact
with a back door cold front dropping across the region.

Thereafter, heights build across the eastern half of the country
with a tropical low potentially impacting the lower mississippi
and tennessee valleys. Global models are in very good agreement
this cycle, in particular the GFS and ecmwf. The ggem appears
to be too aggressive with several frontal waves developing along
the boundary to the south Sunday into Monday.

There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall Saturday
night into Sunday morning as a westerly upper flow and modest
instability raises the concern for training along the cold front
sagging south across the region. Severe weather seems unlikely
due to a weakly sheared environment, however, mixed layer cape
value around 1500 j kg lend to the potential for pulse
strong severe in the evening. In addition, pw values overnight
Saturday approach 2 inches.

Cold front works south of the area early Sunday morning.

However, post-frontal convection is likely to linger through the
morning as a frontal wave passes to the south. Surface high
pressure then noses in from the north through Sunday night. Weak
warm advection still lends to a low chance of showers and
perhaps drizzle light rain Sunday night in an easterly flow.

Outside of some scattered late day convection across the
interior ahead of a weak cold front on Monday, the remainder of
the period should be dry as high pressure builds to the north
and offshore by midweek.

Below normal temperatures for highs Sunday and Monday will
return to well above normal levels Tuesday, with a slight
downward tick Wednesday and Thursday as an onshore easterly flow
reestablishes itself.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure remains centered to the SE of the terminals
today. The high gradually shifts east tonight and Saturday. A
trough of low pressure develops west of the region on Saturday.

Vfr. SW winds increase to mostly 15-20 kt with gusts around 25
kt. Strongest winds at kjfk late this aftn early evening with
occasional gusts 30-32 kt possible. Winds gradually diminish on
tonight, then increase to around 10kt on Saturday.

Have included a tempo tomorrow morning for the nyc terminals as
well as kisp for the the potential for some vsby restrictions
due to haze.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi71 min SW 12 G 16 80°F 57°F1012 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi71 min SW 11 G 16 71°F 63°F1012.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi71 min WSW 14 G 16 70°F 1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi81 min SW 12 G 16 72°F 1 ft55°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi71 min W 15 G 17 80°F 62°F1014.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi111 min SSW 14 G 16 59°F 56°F2 ft1015.3 hPa (-2.2)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi45 minSSW 14 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F57°F47%1013.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi45 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair79°F60°F52%1013.5 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi49 minSW 1210.00 miFair80°F54°F41%1012.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi48 minSSW 1310.00 miFair78°F60°F54%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N8SW11SW13SW9SW9SW8SW9SW9SW9
G17
SW9SW7SW6SW5SW4SW5SW4SW7S6SW7SW8SW13SW13
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1 day ago6N10W10NW8NW8W6W3W4W6N6N5NW5NW6NW6NW6NW6NW10N10N14N11
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2 days agoCalmNE3E5E4E4SE6E5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3CalmSW3W4CalmSW4SW33NW8N11NW11

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Port Jefferson
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Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:11 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     7.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.41.80.60.20.71.93.55.16.36.86.35.23.72.20.90.20.51.63.35.16.67.47.36.3

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:44 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:52 AM EDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:14 PM EDT     7.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.40.30.10.723.65.26.46.76.25.13.620.70.20.61.83.55.26.77.47.16.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.