Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:35PM Thursday November 15, 2018 11:13 PM EST (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1103 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming E 25 to 30 kt after midnight, then diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then around 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1103 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over the waters on Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 160400
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1100 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over
long island on Friday. High pressure will return for the
weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through
Monday. High pressure will return for Tuesday through
thanksgiving day.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Winter weather headlines continue for much of the tri-state area
where primarily light freezing rain will continue to fall
periodically into the overnight hours. Still some snow and sleet
for mainly interior ct early on, but temps aloft will continue
to warm up such that pcpn is mainly freezing rain by late. For
long island, nyc, and adjacent areas of NE nj, temperatures
will remain above freezing, so just plain rain here as
temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Winds between the approaching intensifying low and the strong
high to the NE will ramp up overnight, and expect gusts to at
least 40 mph in nyc metro and along the coast, and higher across
the forks of long island and coastal ct. Issued a high wind
warning for eastern suffolk where gusts up to 60 mph expected
out on the forks, and 45-50 mph farther west into suffolk and
across coastal ct.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
As the low pulls away fri, there may be another burst of snow on
the back end across the interior zones NW of nyc as the upper
low tracks thru and the column cools rapidly. A quick additional
inch could accumulate over already icy areas.

For all areas, a quick increase in NW winds is expected after
the passage of the low, with gusts up to 40 mph mainly nyc
metro coastal sections.

High temps should range from the upper 30s lower 40s inland, to
the mid 40s in nyc metro, to the upper 40s lower 50s across
eastern long island which should briefly get into the warm
sector in the morning as the sfc low moves across.

Skies should clear Fri afternoon as the low pulls away. Another
pd of clouds possible late day into the evening Fri with passage
of a weaker upper trough, the mostly clear skies expected later
fri night. Fcst low temps range from the upper 20s well inland
to mid upper 30s nyc metro long island.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Through the long term period the pacific western ridge will remain
while a trough remains across the central and eastern us. Northern
stream flow will predominate as a series of weak impulses rotate
through the trough. One of the stronger waves moves through near
zonal flow Sunday into Monday. Timing of this wave remains a little
uncertain, and will keep probabilities at chance and slight chance.

Colder air will be in place so will have chances of light snow
inland and rain along the coast. Another wave passes generally to
the southwest and south Wednesday as the wave moves through mid and
low level higher pressure. Ensemble and model guidance keeps the
area dry with generally higher pressure dominating as the wave
passes.

Surface high pressure will be over the area for thanksgiving as
another shortwave passes to the north through the longwave trough.

Temperatures will be moderating for thanksgiving, still remaining
below seasonal normals.

A southern stream shortwave doe move under the western ridge Monday
night into Tuesday and quickly tracks through the southern states.

At this time there is no phasing with the northern trough, and this
system is expected to remain south next Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation 04z Friday through Tuesday
A coastal storm will impact the region through tonight before
moving off to the northeast Friday morning.

Precipitation has transitioned to rain at the city terminals and
is beginning to mix with or change to sleet at khpn and kbdr.

These terminals will be the next to transition to rain, with a
brief period of freezing rain possible in between. Precipitation
at kswf is expected to change to freezing rain by around
midnight. The changeover from snow to rain will result in
improving visibilities, although ceilings will generally remain
ifr to borderline MVFR through the overnight hours.

Ene winds will gust to 35 kts at coastal terminals overnight and
25-35 kts elsewhere. Winds then shift to the northwest towards
12z but remain gusty, with gusts of 20-25 kts into the
afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Saturday through Tuesday
Friday night-Sunday Vfr. NW winds g15-20kt possible on Saturday.

Sunday night-Monday MVFR or lower possible in possible rain
or wintry mix. NW winds g15-20kt Monday.

Tuesday Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas should rapidly increase tonight. Storm force
gusts 50-55 kt expected late this evening into the overnight
between the approaching low and departing high, across the ocean
waters and the eastern sound bays. Gales up to 40-45 kt expected
on the remaining waters. MAX seas should reach 14-17 ft on the
ocean and 4-7 ft on long island sound.

There could be a lull in winds early Fri morning as the sfc low
moves across, then NW gales expected daytime Fri on all waters
as the low pulls away, with gusts 35-40 kt, and continuing on
the ocean waters into Fri night, with SCA conds elsewhere.

Westerly winds and gusts will be diminishing through the day
Saturday as low pressure departs to the northeast and high
pressure builds to the west of the forecast waters. Winds and
seas on the non ocean waters are likely to be below SCA levels
Saturday morning. However, ocean seas will be on going at sca
levels, with wind gusts marginal. By late Saturday winds and
seas will be below SCA levels.

Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels Saturday night
through Tuesday night with high pressure in control most of the
time. A weak wave of low pressure moves north of the waters late
Sunday through Monday.

Hydrology
Liquid equivalent precip of 1.0-1.5 inches expected into fri.

Much of this across the interior will fall as snow or a wintry
mix. With more of the precip on the wintry side, even at the
coast, the urban and poor drainage flooding threat has
diminished.

Dry weather is expected Fri afternoon into Saturday.

No significant precipitation is expected Sunday and Monday.

Dry conditions return for Monday through thanksgiving day.

Tides coastal flooding
Easterly gale to storm force winds will result in tidal departures
of 3 ft above astronomical high tides around the times of high
tide overnight into early Friday morning.

Widespread minor coastal flooding (1 to 2 ft above ground level)
expected for vulnerable locales along the southern and eastern bays
of li, jamaica bay, and western long island sound. Elsewhere,
localized minor flooding expected along lower ny nj harbor and se
coastal ct.

Water levels are expected to fall significantly for the Friday
afternoon high tide, but could have some residual minor flooding
issues in eastern great south bay with a switch to westerly winds if
water does not recede quickly enough. Elsewhere water levels are
expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for Friday.

High surf of 8 to 12 ft along with elevated water levels will result
in widespread beach erosion and flooding during the times of high
tide tonight. Localized minor dune erosion is possible. Along
western LI sound, 3 to 5 ft of surf may cause some splashover
seawalls and exacerbate coastal flooding along shoreline areas.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for ctz005>008.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Friday for ctz009>012.

Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for ctz009>012.

Coastal flood advisory from 4 am to 8 am est Friday for ctz009-
010.

Ny... High wind warning until 6 am est Friday for nyz079-081.

Coastal flood advisory from 2 am to 8 am est Friday for nyz079-
081.

Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for nyz068>070.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Friday for nyz071.

Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for nyz078-080.

Coastal flood advisory from 4 am to 8 am est Friday for nyz071-
073-078-177.

Winter storm warning until 10 am est Friday for nyz067.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 am est Friday for nyz080-178-
179.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for njz002-103.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Friday for njz004-104-
105-107.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm est Friday for anz335-345.

Storm warning until 6 am est Friday for anz330-340-350-353-355.

Gale warning until 6 am est Friday for anz338.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi50 min NE 7 G 12 32°F 53°F1016.4 hPa
44069 17 mi44 min ENE 25 G 31 38°F 42°F38°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi44 min ENE 11 G 16 32°F 54°F1017.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi44 min E 27 G 39 40°F 55°F6 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi84 min ENE 27 G 39 39°F 6 ft39°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi89 min ENE 27 G 41 52°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi44 min E 14 G 27 37°F 51°F1013.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi84 min E 35 G 43 47°F 55°F12 ft1011.3 hPa (-7.8)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi78 minENE 16 G 245.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F35°F97%1015 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi78 minNE 8 G 212.50 miRain Fog/Mist36°F34°F93%1014.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi82 minNE 15 G 231.75 miFreezing Rain Fog/Mist33°F30°F89%1017.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi81 minENE 15 G 286.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist35°F33°F93%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N3NE3N5N5NE5NE5NE5NE9E8NE9NE9E11NE10NE11NE11NE12NE11NE10NE10NE15
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1 day agoNW12NW9
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NW13NW7N11N9N12N7N10N9
2 days agoE3CalmNE6E5SE5SE5SE5SE10E13E17
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:22 AM EST     6.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:35 AM EST     1.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     6.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:03 PM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.13.34.65.66.16.15.34.33.22.21.61.52.23.24.45.56.26.35.74.63.52.31.51.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.