Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:10PM Monday March 25, 2019 2:23 AM EDT (06:23 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:51AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 928 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 928 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches the region tonight, and moves across the area Monday morning. High pressure then slowly builds from the north and west before settling over the region on Wednesday. The high pressure then shifts offshore late in the week ahead of a slowly approaching frontal system.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250531
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
131 am edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the region tonight, and moves across the
area Monday morning. High pressure then slowly builds from the
north and west before settling over the region on Wednesday. The
high pressure then shifts offshore late in the week ahead of a
slowly approaching frontal system.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Only minor updates needed mainly to reflect current temperature
and dew point trends.

A weakening shortwave approaches and moves across the area
tonight. This shortwave will push a cold front across the area
late tonight early Monday morning.

Clouds will lower and thicken late this evening and overnight.

Dry air remains below 5-6 kft, and upstream observations suggest
any mid level precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. In
addition, most model solutions continue to remain mostly dry as
the front trough get sheared out, but cannot rule out a passing
light shower or sprinkle as the front moves through. If precip
occurs, some of the higher elevations over the interior could
see a few snow flakes.

With the clouds, and a light west southwest wind, temperatures
will fall only into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The front should pass south of the area early Monday morning.

Once the front passes through, canadian high pressure builds
across the great lakes region. Temperatures climb to around 50
Monday afternoon as skies clear out across much of the region.

The far southern portion of the CWA may see clouds hang around
for much of the day as low pressure passes well south of the
region. Temperatures fall into the 20s Monday night under clear
skies.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Below normal temperatures will settle across the region on Tuesday
as polar high pressure builds from the north and west. Apart from a
few wisps of cirrus, skies will generally be clear, with winds
gradually decreasing through the day, setting the stage for
favorable radiational cooling conditions overnight. Expect highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and lows in the 20s with the exception of
the nyc metro and immediate suburbs, where lower 30s will be more
common.

By Wednesday, increased subsidence as deep layer ridging builds
directly over the region will allow for a continuation of clear
skies, but warmer temperatures closer to climatological normals. The
surface high shifts offshore late in the day, allowing onshore flow
and warm advection to return. Despite calm winds and clear skies,
lows should be a few degrees warmer than the previous nights.

The warming trend then continues into late week with strong warm
advection in southwest flow between the departing high and a slowly
approaching cold front. Although the flow off the cold ocean will
keep coastal areas in the 50s, the interior will likely see high
temperatures in the 60s, possibly even near 70 by late week.

Similarly, low temperatures will be progressively warmer each day.

There remains significant uncertainty with the timing of the cold
front for late week, which will likely struggle to advance eastward
given the strong deep layer ridging to the east. For now, will keep
low end chances of precipitation. Additionally, several days of
onshore flow may allow for the development of marine stratus,
leading to daytime highs a few degrees colder and lows a few degrees
higher than currently forecast for coastal areas. Will continue to
monitor.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
A cold front approaching from the NW will be slow to pass
through the area late tonight, followed by building high
pressure.

Vfr through the TAF period. SW winds less than 10 kt overnight,
becoming light and vrb in spots. Timing of winds shifting to
the w, then NW could be off by an hour or so. Directions
expected to remain right of 310 degrees magnetic aft 11-12z.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday through Friday Vfr. S-sw gusts 20 kt possible thurs.

Marine
A few occasional gusts to 25 kt, especially on the far eastern
ocean waters may be possible this evening. Otherwise, expect
winds to continue to subside. A cold front then approaches
tonight and passes to the south on Monday. Northerly winds
increase behind the front late Monday and Monday night. Winds
may reach SCA conditions Monday night into early Tuesday
morning, however it looks short lived and marginal, so will not
hoist any new headlines at this time.

Conditions then quickly become tranquil, as high pressure settles
over the waters into Wednesday. The high then shifts eastward
into the late week, allowing a return to a breezy s-sw flow and
a developing s-sw swell that will allow seas to continue to
build into the weekend.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated for the next 7 days.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bc md
near term... Bc md
short term... Bc
long term... Md
aviation... Cb
marine... Bc md
hydrology... Bc md
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi42 min N 1 G 1.9 1016.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi36 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 43°F1016.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi36 min NW 7 G 8 52°F 41°F1017.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi34 min SW 12 G 14 44°F 41°F5 ft1016.9 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi88 minSW 710.00 miOvercast45°F37°F77%1017.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi28 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast46°F34°F63%1017 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi32 minSW 510.00 miOvercast44°F35°F71%1016.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi31 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast47°F34°F61%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10NW10NW8W6W4W4W12NW10W9W9
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SW11SW9SW10SW9SW8SW9SW9SW6SW7W5
1 day agoW20
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2 days agoE18
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:01 AM EDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:33 PM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.65.46.77.26.85.43.71.90.4-0.5-0.40.62.23.95.46.36.45.54.22.71.30.30.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.