Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:57PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:54 PM EST (18:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:40PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1217 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.freezing spray advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
.low water advisory in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray. Water levels 1 1/2 to 2 ft below mean lower low water around the time of high tide.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray, mainly this evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1217 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure will move across the canadian maritimes through this evening. Arctic high pressure will build in through Tuesday. A frontal system will impact the waters from Wednesday into Thursday night. High pressure will return on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211743
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1243 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build in through Tuesday, then
quickly shift offshore Tuesday night ahead of an approaching
frontal system. The frontal system will impact the area
Wednesday into Thursday night. High pressure will build briefly
from Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will be
possible late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Anomalously deep upper level low will move over new england this
afternoon continuing to usher in the coldest air of the winter
season so far. While this air mass is of arctic origins, record
lows for january 21 were all below zero and set back in 1985 at
most climate sites. Record minimum high temperatures were also
set back in 1985, and were in the single digits.

Temperatures have not risen much today, and are only around 10
above in metro most coastal sections and in the single digits
elsewhere, in fact still close to zero in the northernmost
reaches of southern ct. Only expect temps to rise a few degrees
more, remaining in the single digits across interior southern
ct, and perhaps making it just over 15 above in and just outside
nyc.

Wind advy remains in effect for nyc metro and along the coast,
with NW winds gusting just over 45 mph at times. Wind chill advy
meanwhile remains in effect for most inland sections, where
lower sustained winds but colder air is still producing wind
chills of 15 below.

A few flurries or snow showers should persist over parts of
southern ct and eastern long island until a vort MAX on the back
side of the deep closed upper low over new england passes east.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Cold advection weakens significantly tonight as the upper low moves
well offshore and heights build aloft. Winds will gradually weaken
through the night as arctic high pressure builds over the northeast.

The arctic high will still keep very cold conditions tonight with
lows ranging from around zero inland to the single digits most
elsewhere. Wind chills should stay below advisory criteria, -5 to
-10. These wind chills occur early in the night since that is when
the strongest winds are anticipated. Wind chills should generally be
0 to -10 around day break Tuesday.

High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with ridging aloft.

Temperatures moderate into the middle and upper 20s for highs. Winds
will be light with the high pressure over the region which allow
wind chills to be near actual temperatures.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
An active long term period will be setting up as a eastern ridge
moves into the western atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
then a deep longwave trough will predominate across much of the
eastern united states into early next week. A series of shortwaves
will move through the longwave trough. Timing and placement of these
embedded shortwaves will become more uncertain in the longer term.

The first wave to impact the region will be moving into the plains
states Monday night into Tuesday. And by the time the low pressure
system moves into the great lakes Wednesday, differences emerge in
the timing of this low. However, the low will be moving inland and
warm advection ahead of the system will bring mostly liquid
precipitation to the region. Depending on the timing the
precipitation may begin as light snow and, possibly a wintry mix
Wednesday morning, then as the warm air quickly moves north the
precipitation transitions to rain. With a deep moisture feed from
the gulf of mexico and the atlantic, and a slow progression of the
system, a heavy rainfall is becoming more likely. As this system
departs additional energy rotates into the upper trough for late
Friday into Saturday. At this time the remains a lot of uncertainty
with the strength, placement and timing. For now will have just
slight chance probabilities for snow showers Friday night.

Another system, a weak clipper, may move through the northern stream
Saturday night. With the deep eastern trough still remaining into
the end of next weekend and into the beginning of next week, yet
another low pressure system may impact the region Sunday into next
Monday, although confidence in any potential impacts or track at
this time remains low.

Aviation 17z Monday through Friday
Low pressure continues to depart through the canadian maritimes
today as canadian high pressure builds in from the great lakes,
settling over the region on Tuesday.

Vfr through the TAF period, but with sct-bkn CIGS around
3500-5000 ft.

Nw flow with gusts 35-40kt this afternoon. Winds begin to
gradually diminish this evening, but will remain gusty into the
overnight hours. 10-15 kt winds by daybreak Tuesday will
continue to diminish into the afternoon, eventually shifting to
the wsw at 10 kt or less.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi42 min NNW 8.9 G 17 10°F 37°F1015.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi36 min 8°F 37°F1014.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi54 min WNW 27 G 37 10°F 39°F5 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi64 min WNW 31 G 39 15°F 42°F9 ft1017.3 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi58 minW 22 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy11°F-2°F53%1015.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi58 minWNW 19 G 3310.00 miOvercast and Breezy11°F-5°F48%1015.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi62 minNW 15 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy12°F-4°F48%1014.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi61 minNW 18 G 3110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy11°F-6°F46%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15NW20
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1 day agoE5SE10E7E10E7E10E11E11
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2 days ago3CalmW4NW5NW4W5W3W3W5CalmSW3--N5NW6N5N6N5CalmNE4NE6NE7NE8E5E8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:38 AM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:51 AM EST     7.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     -1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 PM EST     7.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.84.12.30.7-0.4-0.60.42.14.26.17.57.97.15.43.31.3-0.4-1.2-0.90.42.34.46.17

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.