Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lloyd Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:16PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:15AMMoonset 1:22PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 533 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 533 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will build in for today. A warm front approaching late tonight into Tuesday will briefly stall across the area as weak low pressure moves along the front. A cold front moves through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure is then expected for Wednesday with a surface trough on Thursday, then a cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lloyd Harbor, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.49     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 271106
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
706 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will build in for today. A warm front
approaching late tonight into Tuesday will briefly stall across
the area as weak low pressure moves along the front. A cold
front moves through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure is then
expected for Wednesday with a surface trough on Thursday, then a
cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday morning.

Weak high pressure then dominates through Saturday morning with
a couple of systems potentially affecting Saturday afternoon
through Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor update to clear clouds faster per recent satellite
imagery. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

Brief deep layer ridging will build into the region, with
subsidence allowing for mostly sunny skies. Although
temperatures will continue to be above normal, the post-frontal
air mass will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Sunday's
highs, generally reaching the 70s to lower 80s. Expect sea
breezes to develop along coastal areas later in the day as
northwest flow slackens.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
Warm advection steadily begins to increase into tonight with the
approach of a short wave trough and attendant surface low.

Increasing cloud cover will maintain above normal lows in the
50s across outlying areas, to lower 60s in the more metropolitan
areas.

Thereafter, a first round of showers is expected as a weak
vorticity maximum moves through. A brief lull into the early
evening may occur. There is then significant uncertainty as to
where the warm front will progress during the evening, though
recent deterministic runs have trended slightly farther north,
placing northeastern nj and potentially portions of nyc and the
lower hudson valley into the warm sector. Hi-resolution
scenarios have been hinting at more significant convection
developing on the cold front, which may be enhanced if a decent
amount of clearing can occur in the wake of the initial shower
activity. Flow will be backed in the vicinity of the warm
frontal boundary, and with northwest flow aloft remaining
strong, will lead to SRH values not often seen here, and deep
layer bulk shear values around 50-60 kt. Additionally, mid level
lapse rates should be around 6.0-6.5 c km. The progression of
the warm front will need to be closely monitored, as there is
certainly potential for supercells in the vicinity of and to the
south of the warm front. Otherwise, a brief period of heavy
rainfall is possible as the cold front moves through, with
everything then quickly clearing after about midnight. Lingering
cloud cover will once again lead to overnight lows that will be
above climatological normals.

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents at the atlantic
beaches for Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Weak high pressure replaces a weak low exiting east on Wednesday.

Models seem to agree that it's fairly dry above 850mb and with nva
dominating through most of the day. Shortwave energy and a surface
trough approach late in the day and may be enough to trigger a
shower or thunderstorm mainly over the western half of the tri-state
area. Chances increase and spread east Wednesday night with these
features moving in along with deepening moisture. The temperature
forecast is a little tricky, but it appears there's building
convergence towards the warmer side of guidance during this period.

For Thursday the trough exits east in the morning, but thermal
troughing appears to gain strength inland ahead of the next cold
front. Showers tstms possible, but mainly in the afternoon and more
so at night. Still too early to be certain, but potential shear and
cape values could aid in strong storms should tstms occur.

Timing for the cold front appears to be either late Thursday night
or Friday morning. Will leave in low pops Friday morning to cover
this uncertainty, but will then go with a dry weather in the
afternoon. A zonal flow and a weak surface high then probably
maintains dry weather Friday night into Saturday morning. A wave of
low pressure may then form along a stalled boundary to our south and
bring chances of showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night.

The next cold front then brings more chances of showers and storms
on Sunday.

High temperatures from Thursday on are expected to be above
normal.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
High pressure builds today.

Vfr forecast through the the TAF period.

Winds remain northerly into the afternoon around 10 kt. S-se
seabreezes are expected for south coastal terminals in the
afternoon. Winds diminish this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi36 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 59°F1013.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 23 mi42 min NNE 5.1 G 7 65°F 55°F1012.1 hPa
44069 28 mi69 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 68°F57°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi36 min 66°F 60°F1012.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 37 mi36 min N 8.9 G 11 66°F 1012.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi36 min NE 4.1 G 7 64°F 61°F1012.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 41 mi42 min 67°F 64°F1012.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi34 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 61°F3 ft1012.5 hPa57°F
MHRN6 42 mi36 min N 6 G 8
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 43 mi36 min NNW 5.1 G 6 66°F 63°F1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi88 minNNW 910.00 miFair61°F52°F72%1012 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi31 minN 610.00 miFair65°F54°F68%1012.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi88 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F55°F78%1012.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY24 mi33 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds67°F52°F59%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW44W6NW8NW11NW13NW10W8NW9W7W7W6W5SW5W6NW6W6NW5NW7CalmCalmNW5NW10NW9
1 day agoCalmS4S6S765S10
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NW7NW6NW7NW8NW6NW5SE5SE6SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Lloyd Harbor entrance, Huntington Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Lloyd Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     1.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:46 PM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     7.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.72.63.85.16.36.96.96.14.93.62.41.51.31.93.14.55.977.36.95.84.53.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.90.60.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.2-000.40.80.70.30-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.