Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alpine, NJ

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Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday July 22, 2018 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 922 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Sunday...
Tonight..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt after midnight, then becoming se 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Showers this evening, then showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 922 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A potent storm will move up the coast and impact the area, especially late tonight as the associated low pressure center passes to the west. A frontal boundary will remain west of the region through much of the week, while high pressure remains offshore.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpine , NJ
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location: 40.95, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220257
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1057 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
A potent storm will move up the coast and impact the area,
especially late tonight as the associated low pressure center
passes to the west. A frontal boundary will remain west of the
region through much of the week, with an extended period of
unsettled weather with the chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Forecast on track this evening with just a few minor adjustments
to reflect latest observations. Otherwise, warm core non-
tropical low was moving along the DELMARVA coast at 01z. Bands
of convection were moving into the northern nj coast and south
of long island, some of the cells had very weak rotation, along
with some higher wind gusts.

Latest hrrr brings a strong wind core with gusts 50-60 kt up to
the south shore of nyc and nassau. So a wind advy continues
for western coastal sections for tonight based on that
guidance, along with GFS lamp guidance forecasting advy criteria
sustained winds to 30 kt at bridgeport ct, and close to advy
criteria at kjfk. If latest runs of hrrr are correct there is
still a chance that the advy for the south shore harbor and
ocean locations may have to be upgraded to a high wind warning,
especially if winds take on a more SE vs E component.

Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF hrrr have been
forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3
inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE nj
counties, also additional similar rain bands run through parts
of western long island, the lower hudson valley, and SW ct. Have
higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but
not those farther east, and since their coverage is not
widespread and href probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was
greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash
flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most
likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have
to watch nyc closely for greater impacts to urban
infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any
direct impact of that magnitude.

As these rain bands ride up into long island and southern ct,
combo of strong 0-1 km shear SRH and sfc-based instability with
sbcape approaching 1000 j kg may be enough to help produce low-
topped tstms capable of producing localized damaging winds or
a brief tornado.

A high rip current risk continues for the ocean waters.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
By daybreak on Sunday, the heaviest rain should lift mainly
into eastern ct long island. As tropical moisture continues to
stream northward, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
increase into the afternoon and at night.

Temperatures will be near normal or a few degrees below average.

A high risk of rip currents is expected for Sunday.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Unsettled weather expected for the much of the long term period.

An upper level trough and surface front remain nearly stalled west
of the CWA as an atlantic ridge remains offshore.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain likely through at
least the first part of Monday night, especially west of nyc. Pops
then lower on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper ridge pushes
back to the west. There does remain some uncertainty with this
feature and kept probabilities across the eastern zones slight
chance and kept chance probabilities to the west of nyc.

An upper level low moving across central canada on Wednesday slides
into the great lakes region by Thursday night. This will push the
trough and front closer to the region, with pops increasing once
again through this period. Its nearly impossible this far out to
time any showers and or thunderstorms and will keep at least some
50% chance pops in the forecast. The trough and front cross the
region during the Thursday night Friday morning timeframe with drier
weather expected for Friday. There may still be some lingering
precipitation, so will continue to maintain some low chance pops.

A tropical like airmass will remain in place next week with highs
each day in the 80s and lows mostly lower to mid 70s. Humidity
levels remain uncomfortable with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Low pressure over eastern maryland at 02z was beginning to track
just to the west of north and will continue to move to the
northwest overnight, moving to the west of the area terminals.

A warm front moves into the terminals late in the overnight and
lifts to the north Sunday. During Sunday the low weakens and
tracks into the eastern great lakes region.

Easterly winds and gusts will increase, with sustained to
around 20 kt, and occasionally as high as 25 kt, with gusts
increasing up to 35 kt. The highest winds and gusts are
expected to the at the coast terminals, especially kjfk and kisp
terminals.

Ceilings have lowered to ifr and MVFR and will remain ifr
overnight. Visibilities will also lower to ifr especially in
moderate to heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms, as the warm
front draws closer to the region. So will continue with the
tempo from 04z to 10z.

Llws wind shear is likely overnight with a E to SE low-level
jet, strongest at the coastal terminals.

By Sunday morning, south southeast winds prevail, with gusts at
times in the 20 to 30 kt range. MVFR ceilings are likely, with
scattered showers expected through the end of the forecast
period, 00z Monday. There may be a brief period ofVFR
conditions, especially in the afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night Mostly MVFR with a chance of ifr in shra and
isolated tstms.

Monday-Thursday MVFRVFR with periods of shra and a chance
of tstms. S gusts 20-25 kt.

Marine
Gale warning remains up for all waters tonight as the coastal
storm works its way up the coast, with sustained winds 25-35 kt
and gusts 35-45 kt expected. There is a chance that winds on the
western ocean waters and new york harbor may be quite a bit
stronger than this, and that this warning may have to be
upgraded to a storm warning. Will be watching coastal obs
along off the DELMARVA and jersey shore for guidance on this
potential.

Gales should subside Sunday morning as a strong southerly llj
shifts east of those waters, with elevated seas continuing.

Winds will remain below SCA levels on the forecast waters
Sunday night through Wednesday. However, with a prolonged
southerly flow and southerly swells, ocean seas will remain at
sca levels through Tuesday. Seas may briefly fall below 5 ft
Tuesday night into Wednesday, but SCA seas then return for
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hydrology
Rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely in most areas from late tonight
into Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts are possible,
especially in any heavier or more persistent rain bands. Minor
urban and poor drainage flooding looks to be the main threat.

A flash flood threat does exist, but not at high enough
probability to warrant issuance of flash flood watches. This may
change as the coastal storm works its way closer to the area and
radar obs lend confidence on exact location of heavier rain
bands overnight.

A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected through the
upcoming week, with the chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day. The focus of higher rainfall amounts are expected
along a frontal boundary setting up inland.

Tides coastal flooding
While astronomical tides remain low with the full moon still a
week off, strong e-se winds should result in surge of 2-3 feet,
high enough to yield brief minor coastal flooding in some
locations in around the ny bight, including the south shore of
staten island and the back bays of southern nyc and southern
nassau. The south shore of staten island may be more susceptible
to flooding as strong E winds and shape of the coastline pile up
water in raritan bay. A coastal flood statement has been issued
for the overnight early Sunday morning high tide cycle along the
south shore from nyc to southern nassau county.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for ctz009.

Ny... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for nyz072>075-080-176-178-
179.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for nyz071-078-177.

High rip current risk from 6 am edt Sunday through Sunday
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.

Nj... Wind advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for njz006.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Sunday for anz330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi31 min ESE 6 G 13 70°F 69°F1013 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 18 mi71 min E 23 G 31 68°F 5 ft66°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 18 mi31 min 72°F 73°F1012 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi31 min E 27 G 32 73°F 1011.5 hPa
MHRN6 25 mi31 min E 21 G 28
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 25 mi31 min 72°F 76°F1010.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi31 min E 16 G 24 73°F 73°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi21 min E 25 G 31 74°F 73°F1010.1 hPa72°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi37 min E 13 G 26 67°F 73°F1014 hPa
44069 47 mi31 min E 23 G 27 77°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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SE3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ9 mi70 minE 9 G 173.00 miRain Fog/Mist68°F66°F93%1011.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY12 mi70 minENE 136.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F66°F90%1012.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY12 mi70 minVar 42.00 miRain Fog/Mist67°F66°F97%1012.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY14 mi65 minE 16 G 236.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist66°F64°F96%1012.9 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ20 mi68 minENE 12 G 186.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist66°F66°F100%1012.6 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi70 minENE 12 G 196.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F68°F93%1011.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi70 minE 21 G 293.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy71°F71°F100%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S4CalmN4NE3E56E11E9SE11
G18
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NE10E13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3E3CalmSW3Calm33S8SE10SE8
G16
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G23
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2 days agoN4N3N3NW3N3CalmNE5N7E64S6344Calm4
G15
S8S7S9
G17
S7S5S5S4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Alpine, New Jersey, Hudson River, New York
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Alpine
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Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:13 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.91.62.32.93.33.53.22.721.50.90.50.71.42.33.13.74.14.13.732.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:22 PM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.70.90.70.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-00.40.80.80.40.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.