Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Arthur Estates, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:59PM Thursday June 22, 2017 4:26 PM EDT (20:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 6:19PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 346 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers this evening...then a chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers with isolated Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 70 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201706230230;;651794 FZUS51 KCLE 221946 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 346 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-230230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Arthur Estates, PA
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location: 40.95, -80.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 221903 cca
afdpbz
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service pittsburgh pa
303 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Downpours are possible through Friday night with a tropical
airmass in place. A cold front sweeping through early Saturday
will return comfortable humidity levels by the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Showers and storms will continue to ride east - southeast south
of the warm front that is draped across northern pennsylvania.

The best instability resides farther south toward the i-70
corridor, however it will take an outflow boundary to trigger
any convection due to the lack of synoptic triggers in this
region. Any storm will be capable of producing downpours with
the amount of low level moisture.

The focus shifts to the southwest as a wave brings showers and
scattered storms through after midnight. The overall speed of
the system will keep the heavy rain threat to a minimum, however
a quick inch of rain is possible given what happened this
morning over parts of greene county. Confidence is high enough
to go categorical pops after midnight area wide.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Downpours possible through Friday evening with left overs from
tropical storm cindy...

for information regarding the threat of high water, please
reference the hydrology discussion located near the bottom of
the product.

The remnants of cindy pass Friday afternoon and evening. This
will bring a widespread area of showers and storms to the region
especially south of i-70. There should be not a lot of
precipitation around during the morning and early afternoon
hours, however with the approach of a the cold front during the
afternoon hours this will trigger storms and interact with
moisture associated with cindy.

The cold front crosses during the overnight hours Friday night
so come daylight Saturday any measurable QPF should be east of
the mountains. Clearing will rapidly take place before 15z then
a CU field will develop during the afternoon hours. Humidity
levels will be noticeable lower as dewpoints drop into the 50s
some 20f lower than today.

Benign weather Saturday night with moisture arriving from the
northwest ahead of the next upper disturbance.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Highlights:
- cooler weather
- no signs of a high water threat
full latitude trough will bring a period of below normal
temperatures to the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be
running nearly ten degrees below their normal benchmarks Sunday
- Tuesday. With the trough axis overhead, scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm are possible through mid week, but with
low level moisture lacking due to the placement of high
pressure southeast of the western great lakes. A transitory
high pressure takes over at weeks end bringing temperatures
back to their normal location and returning dry weather.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Scattered MVFR CIGS will prevail under increasing moist low
levels through the afternoon. Increasing instability and
moderate levels of shear will support scattered showers and
storms, mainly north along a frontal boundary, with potential
impacts to kfkl and kduj. A few storms may produce strong gusts
but will not make any mention of these conditions unless
confidence increases.

Otherwise, more notable weather and terminal impacts arrive
overnight as moisture associated with remnants of tropical cindy
approach and interact with a sagging cold front. Will trend all
sites to MVFR, but some guidance suggests lower by midday
Friday. Heavy rain will likely lead to brief ifr restrictions at
any terminal but again, will not put this in at this time.

Wind will remain wsw through the period, with gusts this
afternoon with plenty of mixing and again Fri afternoon.

Outlook
Widespread restrictions are likely through Saturday morning with
the passage of a cold front.

Hydrology
A flash flood watch has been issued for areas along and south
of interstate 70. A piece of energy crosses tonight and will
bring upwards of an inch of rain as it passes. With flash flood
guidance in the 3 hour time frame over 1.5 inches outside urban
areas allegheny and western westmoreland . The current thinking
is as long as we do not get too much rain this afternoon in one
location we should be able to hold the rain overnight. The main
concern would be QPF Friday afternoon and evening.

Meteorologically values all point to high water issues with
pwats over two inches, warm cloud depths above 13kft, and a
strong low level jet. GEFS m-climate values are near or at
record levels for pwats on return interval, and climate
anomaly.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for mdz001.

Oh... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for ohz057>059-068-069.

Pa... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for paz021-029-031-073>076.

Wv... Flash flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for wvz002>004-012-021-509>514.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 74 mi27 min SW 13 G 15 81°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.3)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 77 mi67 min SW 6 G 13 80°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 82 mi39 min SSW 8 G 11 82°F 1011.5 hPa69°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA15 mi31 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F70°F65%1014.9 hPa
Beaver County Airport, PA16 mi40 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F79%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from UCP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5N6N6N6N5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm354645SW5W4SW8
1 day agoW7SW6SW94S4Calm3CalmN6CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--3CalmSW4W34W7W7
2 days agoW10
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SW3SW4SW4SW3SW3SW4SW5SW6SW5SW5SW4SW6W10W11W8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.