Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:06 PM   Moonset 3:55 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 352 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.Saturday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 191846 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 246 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cold front will continue to shift eastward through the afternoon. A return to seasonably cool temperatures and dry conditions is expected for the weekend. Radiational cooling will bring the potential for frost/freeze impacts, especially as we go into Sunday and Monday morning. A warmup back to seasonal values is in store next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold front is continuing to progress across the region with very minimal precipitation.
- Hazardous weather is not expected.

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Cold front is reaching the ridges this afternoon, with some rain showers starting to blossom along it. ACARS soundings and mesoanalysis suggest about 100j/kg of CAPE, with some modest heating ahead of the boundary which could lead to a few isolated storms. Behind the front, temperatures are already cooling back into the 50's and this should be the trend as the front exits this evening.

NBM maintains lingering cloud cover and elevated winds overnight, though temperatures will fall back to seasonal values under cold advection.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slightly below average temperature and dry weather expected through the weekend.
- Potential for frost and/or freeze impacts each of Saturday and Sunday mornings.
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The Upper Ohio River Valley will be positioned underneath upper troughing Saturday, including passage of the trough axis during the afternoon hours. While the passage will reinforce the cold advection across the region, maintaining temperatures slightly below average, there will be a lack of deep moisture or synoptic lift to generate showers, save for closer to the lake shore and into NY state. Deep mixing with surface heating will keep conditions gusty on Saturday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 20mph are near 100% with a period of gusts exceeding 30mph along the timeframe of the trough passage.

Fairly fast, zonal flow will be present thereafter and through the weekend with high pressure building over the region at the surface keeping conditions dry and cool.

With ridging in place, there remains a concern for frost/freeze as much of the forecast area is now in the growing season both Sunday Morning and Monday Morning. The latest NBM has a 40-60% chance both days, especially north of Pittsburgh. There is a concern that elevated winds could be a limiting factor Saturday night but the high pressure will be more settled over the region Sunday night. For now, will continue to highlighted this in the HWO.



LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- The next low pressure system and associated precipitation chances is likely for late Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Ridging is favored for the late week period, pointing to rising temperature heading into the weekend.
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Though ensemble models vary in trough analysis moving across the southeast U.S. Monday, the outcome remains the same for the Upper Ohio River Valley: rising heights aloft and the influence of high pressure will support dry conditions and seasonable temperature Monday.

There is fairly high consensus on the next upper level trough and associated surface low to drop from the north central plains through the Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the system, weak warm advection will support above normal temperature and increasing cloud cover before the systems arrival. Widespread showers and low probability thunderstorms are then likely as the system crosses the region. Depth of the upper trough remains the biggest uncertainty during this period, which will strongly influence the timing of precipitation passage and degree of cold advection behind the system.

The late week period will be defined by the progression of the upper trough through the northeast CONUS and the rapidity of height rises in its wake. Dry weather will be favored given high confidence of surface high pressure, with temperature recovery in the post-cold front passage environment.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High confidence forecast /80%/ going to 90% after 4Z.

MVFR to VFR clouds are encompassing all the airports and this will be the trend until 22-02Z as they exit from west to east.
Once VFR conditions arrive they will be present for the balance of the forecast. There is a low chance of high end MVFR CIGS after 15Z Saturday at FKL and DUJ, but for now kept them sct given a larger consensus of the guidance.

The main impact and story will be the wind. Speeds and gusts will subside this afternoon as the front gets farther to our east. Wind will pick back up again late in the TAF forecast /after 14Z Saturday/ with gusts nearing 30kts at some airports by midday Saturday while sustain speeds are above 12kts. NBM probabilities of wind speed greater than 15 mph is above 90%, while prob greater than 20mph reside less than 20% and mainly in the higher terrain. Thus confidence is higher in the 12kt threshold being eclipsed than 20kts at this juncture.

Where the TAFs could go wrong? There could be /20% chance/ of MVFR cigs lasting 1-3 hours longer at all airports this evening.

Outlook
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will maintain VFR conditions into next week. Showers and potential restrictions return late Tuesday with an approaching cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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