Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Arthur Estates, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:23 PM EST (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 355 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots this evening. Then winds becoming northwest and increasing to 35 to 40 knot gales after midnight. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then rain showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely in the morning, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees...off cleveland 50 degrees and off erie 48 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201711190315;;611103 FZUS51 KCLE 182055 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 355 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-190315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Arthur Estates, PA
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location: 40.95, -80.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 182337
afdpbz
area forecast discussion
national weather service pittsburgh pa
637 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will cross tonight bringing strong winds
and a changeover to snow showers by early Sunday morning.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Rain with the front will continua tonight. Current timing of
precip with the boundary looks good, so minimal change was
needed. There may still be a rumble of thunder but overall,
coverage has diminished. Will maintain the flood watch as is for
now, until precip with the front crosses. Boundary is rather
progressive but some isolated issues may still arise as upwards
of 2 inches of rain was reported along the watch area.

Still expecting a period of strong winds with the front as it
crosses and behind with as lapse rates steepen. While pressure
rises are rather impressive, many of the obs upstream have not
reported gusts to advisory levels. This and some of the newest
hi res guidance keep gusts below thresholds outside the terrain.

Thus, will hold off on any wind advisory, but it will still be
gusty overnight.

Changeover to snow is expected overnight as cold air returns to
the region. Warm and saturated ground will limit accumulation
at first, with rather low snow ratios but this should improve as
the core of the coldest air approaches later Sunday.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Northwesterly flow will continue scattered snow showers and
keep temperatures in the 30s through the day. Highest pops
remain the snow belt north of i-80 and in the mountains of
pa WV md where lake enhancement upslope is anticipated. Still
thinking 2-4 is reasonable, though some higher amounts may be
possible. Best window for accumulating snow in the terrain looks
to be as the second shortwave dives through the trough tomorrow
afternoon, deepening the saturation layer through the snow
growth zone, but this only lasts for a short period of time.

With this in mind, have opted not to issue a winter weather
advisory at this time though consideration will be given on
future shifts.

Building ridge of high pressure and backing flow should end
chances for showers by Monday morning, with dry conditions
expected through Tuesday. Some warming is expected under an
upper ridge, which should get us closer to seasonal values by
Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Minimal change was needed in the extended. The majority of the
week will be dry with seasonal temperatures outside of a weak
wave progged to pass to the north midweek. Have kept slight
chances in for locations north of i80 on Wednesday. Next system
is progged for late in the period, with broad troughing in
place. Model guidance differs, so opted to stay near a blend of
guidance.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
Any improvement above MVFR will be brief this evening as the
warm sector of low pressure digging toward the southern great
lakes traverses the area. Expect redeterioration to ifr with
rain and then snow as the systems cold front crosses in the
predawn of Sunday.

The strong pressure gradient of this system will continue to
support llvl wind shear and gusts of 30 to 40 kts with the
frontal passage tonight.

MVFR stratocu will linger in the cold flow behind the front on
Sunday, in addition to local ifr in snow showers, especially at
fkl and duj.

Outlook
The next chance for restrictions is expected with a late Tuesday
cold front.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... Wind advisory until 10 am est Sunday for mdz001.

Oh... Flood watch until midnight est tonight for ohz039>041-048>050.

Pa... Flood watch until 3 am est Sunday for paz007>009-013>016-
020>023-029-073-074.

Wind advisory until 10 am est Sunday for paz074-076.

Wv... Flood watch until midnight est tonight for wvz001-002.

Wind advisory until 10 am est Sunday for wvz510>514.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 74 mi63 min S 23 53°F 986.1 hPa
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 77 mi61 min S 8 G 19 53°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA15 mi28 minSSE 45.00 miRain Fog/Mist52°F52°F100%992.4 hPa
Beaver County Airport, PA16 mi3.6 hrsSE 510.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%993.6 hPa

Wind History from UCP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm4CalmCalmCalm33544CalmSE345--353SE5536--SE4
1 day agoW3NW4CalmNW5--N6N5NW4NW3NW5NW3NW3W4W5Calm--CalmSE4SE3SE6S3SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoS76
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.