Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baiting Hollow, NY

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:18PM Saturday July 21, 2018 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 132 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
This afternoon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then showers and chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 132 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A coastal low quickly tracks north along the eastern seaboard this afternoon and west of the waters tonight. Another low and associated frontal boundary remains to the west Sunday night through the upcoming work week, while high pressure remains offshore.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow CDP, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211728
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
128 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure continues moving off to the northeast as an unusually
strong summertime low tracks north along the eastern
seaboard this afternoon. The low will pass to the west of the
area overnight. Another low and associated frontal boundary
remains to the west Sunday night through the upcoming work week,
while high pressure remains offshore.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor updates to sky, temps and dew points. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

High pressure gives way to fast moving low riding up the middle
atlantic coast. Sunshine is fading behind increasing cloudiness,
mainly western locales. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than Friday, with highs in the 70s. Easterly winds will
increase, with gusts 20 to 30 mph, especially near the coast, as
the afternoon progresses.

There is a high rip current risk this afternoon and evening due
to a strengthening easterly flow and building surf ahead of the
low.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Closed low over the great lakes digs deeper while southern stream
energy around the base of an upper trough leads to the development
of a secondary low. This coastal low is forecast to continue to
deepen as it tracks up the mid atlantic coast with model consensus
indicating the track of the low to be west of nyc.

Impacts from this low should arrive during the evening, mainly
after 00z, with heaviest rain through 06z-09z. Deep tropical
moisture will raise precipitable water values close to 2.5", so
any showers and thunderstorms have the ability to produce heavy
rainfall rates. While there remains a strong signal for heavy
rain, there is still poor model agreement with exactly where the
axis of heavy rainfall will set up, although more widespread
heavy rain remain north of the low, but heavy rain will occur to
the east as well. A general inch to inch and a half of rain is
likely, with higher amounts in any heavier thunderstorm that
develop.

Strong easterly winds ahead of the warm front will likely be
sustained 20-30mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

Another thing to watch closely is the potential for severe weather
east of the low and along the warm front lifting northward.

Thunderstorms could produce isolated damaging winds or even a brief
tornado as low level SRH tends to maximize, and as air mass quickly
destabilizes via an eroding low level temp inversion, either via
heavy rain, or via sudden destabilization right along the warm front
via descending air in a relatively dry slot right behind the front.

Greatest potential for this appears to be across long island and se
ct.

By daybreak on Sunday, the heaviest rain should lift mainly into
eastern ct and eastern long island. As tropical moisture continues
to stream northward, chances for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms increase into the afternoon.

Temperatures will be near normal or a few degrees below.

A high risk of rip currents is likely for Sunday due to high
surf.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Guidance remains consistent with keeping a closed low from the ohio
valley into the gulf coast states Sunday night with the low opening
into a trough Monday. This feature will remain within a nearly
blocked flow as the northern atlantic ridge remains offshore. There
are indications that the upper trough will retrograde Monday into
early Tuesday as the atlantic ridge builds to the north. This
pushes the trough south into the gulf coast states and cuts off
from the northerly flow. Periods of showers and thunderstorms
are expected to remain and will keep likely probabilities
through Monday night, especially to the west. If the upper ridge
pushes far enough inland, much of the area may be dry Tuesday
and Tuesday night. With the uncertainty, and to keep some
measure of consistency with the previous forecast, only lowered
probabilities across the eastern zones to slight chance and kept
chance probabilities to the west.

The northern flow will then dominate Wednesday into Thursday as the
ecmwf pushes the low to the gulf coast where the low then mostly
dissipates, while the GFS moves the low south, and maintains some
circulation along the texas gulf coast. For the area, a weak cold
front will develop and begin to slowly approach Wednesday and
Thursday, and moves through Thursday night into Friday.

A tropical like airmass will remain in place Sunday night through
next week with highs each day in the lower to mid 80s and lows
mostly lower to mid 70s. Humidity levels remain uncomfortable with
dew points in the lower to mid 70s.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Low pressure will track up into the DELMARVA region this
evening, and then west of the terminals overnight. A warm front
passes tonight, lifting north Sunday.

Easterly winds will continue to ramp up with gusts up to 20 kt
this afternoon, increasing 25 to 35 kt this evening. The highest
winds will occur at the coastal terminals. Sustained winds
tonight increase to 15 to 25 kt. A few gusts to 40 kt are
possible.

Widespread ifr ceilings and vsbys develop from south to north
this evening with the approaching low and associated warm front.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is likely. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible as the warm front draws
closer to the region around midnight. Have included vicinity
thunder mention as we drawer closer to the event.

Llws wind shear is likely overnight with a s-se low-level jet,
strongest at the coastal terminals.

By Sunday morning, south southeast winds prevail, with gusts at
times in the 20 to 25 kt range. MVFR ceilings are likely, with
scattered showers expected.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday afternoon MVFR low endVFR ceilings with hit or miss
showers thunderstorms. Coastal terminals could hang onto to MVFR
ceilings through the afternoon. S gusts around 20 kt at the
coastal terminals.

Sunday night Mostly MVFR with a chance of ifr in shra and
isolated tstms.

Monday-Thursday MVFRVFR with periods of shra and a chance
of tstms. S gusts 20-25 kt.

Marine
Gale warning remains up for all waters tonight as an anomalously
strong coastal low works north along the mid atlantic coast,
passing to the west of the waters tonight. There is the
potential for gusts 35 to 45 kt.

Gales should subside Sunday morning as a strong southerly low
level jet shifts east into those waters and into the waters off
se new england, with elevated seas continuing on the WRN ocean
waters.

Winds will just below SCA levels on the forecast waters Sunday
night through Wednesday. However, with a prolonged southerly
flow and southerly swells, ocean seas will remain at SCA levels
Sunday night through Tuesday. Seas may briefly fall below 5 ft
Tuesday night into Wednesday as winds diminish slightly.

Hydrology
Rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely in most areas from late tonight
into Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts are possible,
especially in any thunderstorms that develop. Minor urban and
poor drainage flooding looks to be the main threat.

A localized threat for flash flooding exists with any training
convection, and also if heavy rain coincides with high tide levels
approaching minor flood levels along the coast Sunday morning.

Additionally, if high-end rainfall amounts are realized across the
more quickly-responding NE nj and lower hudson valley river basins,
minor stream flooding would be possible as well.

A prolonged period of unsettled weather is possible through the
upcoming week with periods of showers and thunderstorms. The
focus of higher rainfall amounts are expected along a frontal
boundary setting up inland.

Tides coastal flooding
While astronomical tides remain low with the full moon still a
week off, a low chance continues for locations in around the ny
bight, including the shores of staten island and the back bays
of southern nyc and southern nassau, to approach minor coastal
flood benchmarks with the high tide cycle early Sunday morning,
especially if strongest winds coincide closely enough with the
high tide. Runoff from heavy rain bands could increase this
potential, but this remains uncertain.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for nyz075-
080-081-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Sunday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-353-355.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 11 am edt Sunday for
anz350.

Synopsis... CB dw
near term... CB pw
short term... Cb
long term... Met
aviation... Pw
marine... Dw pw
hydrology... Cb
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 12 mi49 min E 18 G 21 68°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi34 min SSE 8.9 G 17 71°F 77°F1019.3 hPa
44069 26 mi34 min E 18 G 23 70°F 79°F65°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi40 min E 14 G 19 71°F 74°F1018.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi74 min E 18 G 21 67°F 73°F4 ft1019.3 hPa (-1.2)62°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi34 min 66°F 67°F1019.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 42 mi39 min E 19 G 21 65°F 1009.7 hPa61°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 44 mi34 min SE 9.9 G 15 70°F 74°F1019.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi74 min ENE 21 G 27 70°F 3 ft64°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi71 minE 13 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F59°F66%1019.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi68 minESE 8 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F62°F67%1018.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi68 minE 16 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F57°F55%1018.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi71 minESE 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F61°F64%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE7S10S7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5CalmE6E9
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1 day agoS8S7S6S5S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E466S4S8S7
2 days agoNW10NW10NW12NW11NW5N4N5N6NE6NE5N6N6N5N6CalmN4NE6N8NE73E6SE9SE6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island, New York
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Northville
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Sat -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:11 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.81.62.73.94.85.24.94.23.121.10.60.81.62.745.15.75.85.24.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:34 PM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:47 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.110.5-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.3-1-0.50.41.11.41.41.10.4-0.3-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.3-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.