Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baiting Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:50PM Friday September 21, 2018 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 609 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt early. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 609 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the canadian maritimes will move into the open atlantic waters today as a cold front moves through the great lakes region. The front will move through the local area late tonight and into early Saturday morning with canadian high pressure building to the north for the weekend, before shifting east. A warm front will pass through on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow CDP, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211115
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
715 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the canadian maritimes will move into the
open atlantic waters today as a cold front moves through the
great lakes region. The front will move through the local area
late tonight and into early Saturday morning and stall to the
south, with canadian high pressure building in this weekend and
into Monday. A warm front will then pass through Monday night
into Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday, the front
should stall to out south on Wednesday while high pressure
builds to its north.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Another night of moisture remaining trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion resulting in stratus. Not expecting much in the way of
clearing today, perhaps partly sunny across portions of LI and
se ct this aftn, otherwise mostly cloudy.

The local area will remain warm sectored today as high pressure
near nova scotia shifts into the atlantic and strengthening low
pressure over the western great lakes tracks NE through southern
canada. A tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing
southerly winds with gusts 20 to 25 mph, highest at the coast.

Outside of a few showers across NW areas late, it should be dry
today.

High will be near normal today ranging from the upper 60s into
the lower 70s, mid 70s in the metro area.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches of new york city, nassau and southwestern
suffolk counties, and a high risk at the southeastern suffolk
atlantic beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
As the cold front approaches this evening, the chances for
showers and possibly some tstms will increase. For the past 3
nights model guidance has been consistently indicating that the
severe threat would remain N and W of the local forecast area
due to the lack of instability from limited height falls aloft.

Additionally, with the low passing so far to the north, the
majority of the shortwave energy also remains to the north.

There is some elevated instability present with showalters
between 0 and -1 c so have maintained the schc tstms, but severe
weather is not expected. The line of showers and tstms is
expected to weaken as it approaches and moves through as it
enters a more stable environment. Any lingering pcpn should be
south of long island by Sat morning.

Canadian high pressure builds to the N behind the front
providing a dry and seasonable day on sat.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches on sat.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Wx should remain dry Sat night through Mon with weak high pressure
over the area, though we should see some clouds from the stalled
cold front to the south, especially across nyc metro and long
island. As mid level confluence in the wake of a departing nrn
stream trough passes across the canadian maritimes early next week,
associated strong sfc high pressure will move across new england,
with a back door cold front dropping into the area from the north on
mon and dissipating. An upper level ridge axis should slide quickly
across Mon int Mon evening, then return flow on the back side of the
sfc high and an approaching warm front should bring increasing
chances for precip beginning late Mon night and going into the mid
week period. Could see a few heavier showers with the warm front on
tue as it lifts through, then showers tstms with a cold front moving
through. If latest ECMWF is right Thu could be dry, but with the
front aligning with the flow aloft and models often too
progressive at longer time ranges, still could see at least
slight chance pop for post-frontal showers, especially nyc
metro and long island.

Temps Sat night into Mon should range slightly below avg, with highs
in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps should them warm to above avg,
by wed, with highs 75-80, and a return of 70+ dewpoints as well.

Temps on Thu after cold FROPA should then trend back closer to avg.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure shifts offshore on Friday as a cold front
approaches late Friday night.

PredominantlyVFR today, however a period of MVFR may linger
for the next few hours. Southeast winds becoming
south southwesterly this morning. Gusts 20-25kt, with the higher
gusts along the coast.

Showers will approach the region overnight into Saturday
morning but are forecast to weaken and dissipate as they
approach. Have kept a prob30 for chance showers. CIGS should
remainVFR but could briefly drop to MVFR in any heavier shower.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 12 mi41 min SE 9.7 G 14 67°F 73°F1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi38 min SSW 9.9 G 13 67°F 76°F1025.2 hPa
44069 26 mi56 min S 7.8 G 12 68°F 73°F61°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi44 min S 8.9 G 13
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi36 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 65°F 68°F4 ft1026 hPa (+1.1)57°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi38 min 63°F 70°F1025.9 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 42 mi31 min SE 9.9 G 12 64°F 1026.8 hPa56°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 44 mi38 min E 4.1 G 5.1
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi41 min S 9.7 G 14 68°F 1 ft61°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi93 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast65°F57°F76%1025.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi90 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%1025 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi90 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast66°F59°F78%1024.9 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi93 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast67°F60°F79%1025 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NE9NE13NE8NE11N8E7NE8SE7E6E6E5SE45E4SE5SE8SE6SE4SE5SE3SE6SE4SE4
1 day agoN9NE9N11N76NE9NE9NE10NE12E7E4E8E6NE7NE8NE8
G14
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2 days agoS13
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SW9N7N6N4N5N6N7N5N6N4N7CalmCalmN4N5N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.