Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:15PM Friday May 26, 2017 3:15 AM EDT (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 9:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1233 Am Edt Fri May 26 2017
Overnight..NE winds around 10 kt...becoming N late. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and scattered tstms.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain or drizzle.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the daytime.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1233 Am Edt Fri May 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks through the waters tonight and then off the new england coast on Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday...then gives way to high pressure building down from southeastern canada for the weekend. This high then retreats to the northeast early next week as weak low pressure tracks to the south. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre village, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260523
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
123 am edt Fri may 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks through the tri-state region overnight
and off the new england coast Friday into Friday night. High
pressure builds down from southeastern canada for the weekend.

This high then retreats to the northeast early next week as weak
low pressure tracks to the south. A cold front approaches from
the west on Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night. This
front then stalls out nearby as high pressure builds in from the
southwest, producing potentially unsettled weather for the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Both the upper and surface lows will move across the area early
this morning with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms.

Adjustments were made to account for higher rain chances as far
west as the lower hudson valley.

Brief heavy downpours are expected overnight with minor,
nuisance flooding possible. Conditions start to dry out toward
daybreak form SW to NE as the upper low lifts NE of the region.

Surface low pressure will move along or near the long island coast
overnight so winds will not be as strong. The warm front may
even briefly move across portions of eastern long island before
the low lifts to the north and east.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
Upper low and surface low become vertically stacked as they move off
the new england coast on Friday. Wrap around showers and possible
thunder linger for a few hours around day break across eastern
connecticut and the forks of long island. Otherwise, clouds
will be slow to clear as moisture lingers below 10 kft. Nw
downsloping flow should help to create some breaks in the
clouds, especially across the western half of the area. These
breaks will help boost temperatures into the 70s, with cooler
readings in the middle to upper 60s further east where clouds
linger longest.

Model soundings indicate some instability between about 5 and 10
kft, so clouds may fill back in with any breaks. There is also the
possibility of a few iso-sct showers. No thunder is forecast since
the instability does not look to get much above -5c with heights
building aloft behind the upper low.

Weak ridging passes Friday night as high pressure moves into the
region from the west. Lingering moisture will keep skies partly to
mostly cloudy with lows near normal values.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
The region is in between two shortwaves passing to the north and
south Saturday and Saturday night, so with most significant forcing
outside of the area, have at most slight chance pops in this time
frame, with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Onshore flow will dominate from Sunday through Monday.

The result will be mainly gray sky conditions with spotty light rain
or drizzle mainly over higher elevations mainly to the N W of nyc
from Sunday into Sunday night as a northern stream shortwave ridge
crosses the area. A 700-500 hpa shortwave approaches late Sunday
night and crosses the area on Monday, making for a more widespread
rain over the region then.

With the onshore flow damming high, have undercut guidance by mixing
in NAM and ECMWF 2-meter temperatures. Highs will run 5-10 degrees
below normal Sunday and Monday and lows a few degrees above normal
Sunday night (due to reduced diurnal range).

A broad closed low slow tracks from ontario into western quebec from
Monday night through Thursday, with shortwaves rotating around the
base of the low from time to time. The timing of these shortwaves is
somewhat difficult this far out, but for now it appears that most
energy will be focused mainly to the N of the region. As a result,
there is a chance of isolated to scattered showers - mainly over
northern portions of the tri-state. Also, cannot rule out an
isolated rumble of thunder Tuesday Tuesday night with the passage of
a surface cold front.

Temperatures Tuesday-Thursday should run near to slightly above
normal.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Low pres passes thru the region early this mrng, then into the
gulf of me this aftn.

Ifr lifr conds improving to MVFR at times with shra tstms. Tstm
chances drop off thru 08z with a return to prevailing ifr lifr
for the rest of the night.

Flow will be vrb with the passage of the low, then NW flow
develops as the storm tracks away from the area.

Improvement back toVFR by this afternoon. W-nw gusts 20-25 kt.

Winds generally south of 310 magnetic. Shra possible.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday
Late tonight Vfr.

Saturday Vfr.

Saturday night-Monday MVFR ifr possible in showers. E se
winds.

Tuesday Improving toVFR. S SE winds.

Marine
Updated weather and probabilities for showers and scattered
thunderstorms early this evening across the far eastern ocean
waters and into the eastern long island sound.

With nearshore wind gusts, and across the waters, below 25 kt
the small craft advisory for the bays and new york harbor and
long island sound was allowed to expire. Easterly winds will
gradually weaken into this evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Seas on the ocean will remain at small craft levels
through Friday and the small craft was converted to a hazardous
seas small craft. These seas will gradually subside Friday night
with sub-sca conditions elsewhere.

A light pressure gradient over the region Saturday-Tuesday should
limit winds to 10 kt or less. Given the absence of any significant
swell, in addition, conditions should be below small craft advisory
conditions over the waters around long island Saturday-Tuesday.

Hydrology
An additional 0.50 to 1.0 inches of rain is forecast through
Friday morning. The highest amounts will likely occur across
eastern connecticut and eastern long island. Locally higher
amounts are possible where thunderstorms occur overnight. Minor
urban and poor drainage flooding is possible.

It should then be mainly dry Friday night-Sunday.

Another round of rain is possible from Sunday night into late
Monday. At this time, it is to soon to specify, what, if any,
hydrologic impact will be experienced from this system.

Tides coastal flooding
A coastal flood warning continues for moderate flooding
potential for the south shore back bay locations of nassau
county for tonight, and advisories are in place for minor
flooding potential for areas adjacent to western long island
sound, ny harbor, and the south shore back bays of the western
long island. Minor flood thresholds could briefly be touched
along the eastern bays of LI and SE ct.

How quickly easterly winds begin to weaken this
evening will be key to the potential for seeing widespread
versus localized moderate coastal flooding along the southern
bays of western li. Less than 1 2 ft of surge is needed in many
places to reach minor flood thresholds.

The threat for minor coastal flooding is likely to continue during
the nighttime high tides for the southern bays of western LI nyc
through the memorial day weekend. While along western long island
sound, lower ny harbor, and eastern great south bay... Minor coastal
flooding is possible at those times.

Beach erosion is expected with the prolonged easterly
sweep... But the potential for dune erosion looks to be low and
localized.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt this
evening for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Maloit ds
near term... Met dw
short term... Ds
long term... Maloit
aviation... Jmc jc
marine... Maloit ds met
hydrology... Maloit ds
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi45 min N 8.9 G 13 53°F 996.9 hPa
44069 20 mi60 min NNE 9.7 G 14 58°F 62°F58°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi45 min NE 15 G 21 53°F 59°F997.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi60 min NNE 9.7 G 12 55°F 1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi60 min N 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 2 ft56°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi30 min 57°F 56°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi45 min NE 8.9 G 12 56°F 57°F996.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 51 mi85 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 55°F6 ft996.3 hPa (-0.4)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 53 mi45 min 58°F 58°F997 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 54 mi85 min NNW 14 G 16 57°F 56°F5 ft996.8 hPa (-0.0)57°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi45 min N 12 G 13 58°F 997.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 57 mi30 min NE 5.1 G 8 54°F 997.5 hPa52°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 58 mi45 min NE 1.9 G 6 54°F 55°F997.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 58 mi85 min 56°F 54°F6 ft997.9 hPa (-2.5)56°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi23 minN 102.50 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist55°F52°F90%997.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi79 minNNE 106.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F96%997.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi79 minN 07.00 miLight Rain59°F59°F100%997.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi22 minNNE 14 G 208.00 miLight Rain52°F51°F97%997.7 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE4NE5E5NE5N8NE10NE10N7NE11
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SE9SE6SE9SE9E9E9E9E6E9E8E12
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2 days agoN8N7N7N8N10N8NE11N10N12N95CalmCalmS6S6S4SW6SW3S5W3CalmNE3SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:21 PM EDT     7.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.37.45.63.41.3-0.4-1.2-0.80.62.64.76.47.37.15.94.12.20.6-0.4-0.30.92.856.8

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:26 PM EDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.66.95.33.31.4-0.2-1-0.90.32.24.15.76.76.65.63.92.20.7-0.3-0.30.62.34.36.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.