Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:55PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:47 AM EST (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 933 Pm Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 933 Pm Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds to the south overnight and Friday. Low pressure passes well to the north and east on Saturday. The low will send a back door cold front through the region Sunday into Sunday night. The front returns north as a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong cold front passage late Monday night into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre village, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190528
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1228 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds to the south overnight and Friday. Low
pressure passes well to the north and east on Saturday. The low
will send a back door cold front through the region Sunday into
Sunday night. The front returns north as a warm front on Monday
ahead of a strong cold front passage late Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
High clouds from a shortwave, moving through the northern
stream, were beginning t move into the northwestern zones as
seen on the mid level water vapor loop. High and mid level
clouds are expected across the northern tier in association of
the shortwave.

Updated the sky cover, winds, temperatures and dew points for
current conditions and trends into Friday morning.

The upper level disturbance moving out of the eastern great
lakes passes to the north overnight. It will pass through dry
with mid and upper level clouds. Another cold night with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the teens to mid
20s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
Upper level trough swings out of the region early Friday with
dry weather continuing as high pressure builds across the south.

A west to southwest flow will advect in warmer temperatures
with highs expected to be near normal, in the 30s to near 40.

Temperatures fall into the 20s and low 30s Friday night under a
mostly clear sky.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A split flow pattern is progged across the eastern states this
weekend with a developing storm system and upper trough over the
west. The flow over the northeast will be mainly zonal with a
relatively flat trough to our north. This pattern will yield
above normal temperatures and dry conditions on Saturday as
readings reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. It would not be
surprising if highs end up a few degrees warmer than currently
advertised.

The flat trough to our north will have low pressure traversing
across southeast canada on Saturday into Saturday night.

Trailing this low will be a back door cold front which should
gradually sink southward Sunday into Sunday night as high
pressure attempts to ridge down into new england. No precip is
expected with this front, but temperatures should be held down a
few degrees from those on Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be in
the middle 40s for most locations.

Upper jet stream pattern over the CONUS amplifies further
Sunday into early next week as the storm system over the west
translates into the central states by Monday. Upper ridge axis
moves across the region late Sunday night into Monday as well.

The frontal boundary to our south will gradually lift northward
as a warm front on Monday with low level warm advection and the
ridge axis sliding to the east. A warm nose should develop
between about 750 and 900 mb as SW flow increases ahead of the
approaching upper trough. Main concern with any precipitation
will be for inland locations where surface temperatures are slow
to rise above freezing. The magnitude of the warm advection and
rising heights aloft would indicate any chance of snow is
limited with ptype concerns in the form of light freezing rain
or sleet. This appears to be confined to Monday morning across
the interior. Warmer air continues to move in Monday afternoon
and evening with temperatures getting into the upper 30s and
lower 40s, changing any mixed precip to plain rain.

There is divergence in model solutions Monday night into
Tuesday on the amplitude of the upper trough as well as the
location of the closed low and track of the surface low. Where
confidence has increased is with the progression of the cold
front. Highest chances for moderate to locally heavy rain
continue to be late Monday night into Tuesday morning in
association with the cold front and best dynamics from the upper
trough becoming negatively tilted. Made some minor adjustments
to pop timing, with a decreasing trend Tuesday afternoon and
evening as the front moves offshore. Highs on Tuesday should
reach the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Cooler air works back into the region for the middle of next
week as high pressure takes over with temperatures near normal.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure remains centered SW of the region thru tngt.

Vfr thru the TAF period.

W flow backs slowly thru the TAF period, becoming SW aft 23z.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday
Saturday Vfr. Wsw winds g20-25kt.

Sunday Vfr.

Monday Chance of MVFR or lower in -shra. S winds g20kt late day.

Tuesday Ifr in rain. Llws. S winds g25kt morning, W winds g30-
35kt aftn.

Marine
No further updates to the winds and seas at this time, with
conditions remaining below SCA levels overnight and into early
Friday afternoon.

Buoy data across southern long island indicates that winds and
seas have diminished to below SCA levels.

With marginal conditions, occasional gusts to 25 kt, expected
Friday afternoon into late Friday, and low confidence of
occurrence will hold off on issuing another advisory at this
time.

Sca conditions are likely on the ocean waters on Saturday as a
relatively strong pressure gradient develops between high
pressure to the south and low pressure to the north. There is
also a small chance for a few gale force gusts. Have elected to
leave out of the hwo for now as confidence is low and they may
end up only being occasional. A few SCA gusts are also possible
on the near shore waters. More tranquil conditions are forecast
on Sunday and Monday with winds and seas below SCA levels. Winds
increase to SCA levels on late Monday night into Tuesday with a
cold front passage.

Hydrology
Dry through the weekend.

A frontal system passing through late Monday night into Tuesday has
the potential to bring around inch of rain. No significant
hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... CB ds
near term... CB 19
short term... Cb
long term... Ds
aviation... 12 jc
marine... CB ds 19
hydrology... CB ds
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi47 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 23°F 34°F1016.9 hPa (+0.0)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi47 min N 7 G 9.9 24°F 35°F1017.4 hPa (+0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi62 min NW 18 G 21 28°F 2 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi47 min NNW 9.9 G 13 26°F 32°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 51 mi57 min NW 19 G 25 31°F 42°F3 ft1017.7 hPa (+0.5)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 53 mi47 min 26°F 35°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 54 mi57 min WNW 16 G 21 30°F 40°F3 ft1018 hPa (+0.7)16°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi47 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 27°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.3)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 57 mi37 min WNW 13 G 17 24°F 1018 hPa15°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 58 mi47 min NW 4.1 G 8 23°F 37°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi55 minNW 410.00 miFair23°F12°F65%1017.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi51 minW 310.00 miFair22°F14°F71%1017.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi4.9 hrsNW 610.00 miFair27°F16°F63%1016.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi54 minNW 410.00 miFair25°F14°F63%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N11NW12NW9N10N4NW11NW10NW11NW6NW12NW16
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1 day agoE5CalmE4E5N4N3NE5E4NE5NE4N3N9NW7NW7NW7NW9NW8NW9NW11NW11N11N10N11N12
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmNW4N6N5NW6N6E6E6SE4S6SE7SE9SE6CalmE4E4CalmE5E6E6E6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM EST     6.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM EST     7.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:51 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.56.35.33.82.310.30.41.32.94.666.96.964.42.71.20.2-0.20.51.83.55.1

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:25 AM EST     6.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:36 PM EST     6.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:00 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.95.953.72.31.10.30.31.12.54.15.46.36.45.64.22.71.30.2-0.20.31.53.14.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.