Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday July 22, 2017 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 7:40PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 406 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tstms likely with chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 406 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks along it, this front then sags farther to the south on Sunday after the low passes. Another low then moves along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by Monday morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves through the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east Tuesday. High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre village, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 222044 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
444 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of low
pressure tracks along it, this front then sags farther to the
south on Sunday after the low passes. Another low then moves
along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by Monday
morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves through
the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east Tuesday.

High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through
Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another
wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Friday,
with a cold front moving through Friday. High pressure returns
Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
A few isolated showers are possible before 6pm, mainly across
far W zones, as the main part of a convective complex passes to
the sw, with anvil based precipitation passing mainly to our n.

An area of showers and thunderstorms, currently over N central
pa is progged to move into the nyc metro area 23-01z, then track
ese along just south of long island through around 4z, with
scattered mainly showers to the n. This area is associated with
a 700-500 hpa shortwave and vorticity maxima that moves through
right behind it. Could be some strong to possibly severe storms
with this cluster, with gusty winds the main threat.

Once this shortwave exits, the overnight hours should be mainly
dry, except for possibly some lingering showers (with a slight
chance of a rumble of thunder) mainly over long island.

Will let heat advisory expire at 6pm.

Lows tonight should be around 5 degrees above normal.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches through this evening.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
The region should be under locally zonal flow Sunday. With no
shortwaves of note forecast to move over the region in this
flow, it should be mainly dry. However, this is quite a change
from the previous forecast. So to trend things, went with
slight chance pops over western zones and mainly dry over
eastern zones through late afternoon, then increased pops to
chance over far western zones and slight chance throughout
elsewhere (reflecting climatological trends for convection).

A sharpening 700-500 hpa trough developing closed low moving
into the great lakes Sunday night, along with 850 hpa
frontogenesis, will produce an increasing threat of showers,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The pops increase from w
to e, to likely throughout by after midnight.

Onshore low-level flow should result in a mostly cloudy sky on
Sunday, limiting highs to near to slightly below normal levels
(mainly around 80-mid 80s). Lows Sunday night should be slightly
above normal due to cloud cover.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches Sunday.

Long term Monday through Saturday
An upper level shortwave and accompanying wave of surface low
pressure will be exiting to the east Monday night into early
Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be on-going at the
beginning of the extended forecast period. Instability and CAPE will
be marginal and increase somewhat during Monday, however may still
not be sufficient to support widespread convection, so will keep
isolated wording.

The upper westerly flow will be progressive through the period. A
weak ridge builds Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday. Then
another shortwave, with an embedded closed low, over the canadian
west coast Monday, opens and digs a more significant trough into
the eastern states Wednesday night into Thursday with a high
amplitude trough, of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal,
digging all the way to northern florida by Friday. The flow looked
to be still progressive with a surface low moving through
Thursday and Friday. However, there are hints that the upper low
will close off again Friday into Saturday and remain along the
northern coast into next weekend. At this time will keep with
persistence and the more progressive flow and keep Friday night
into Saturday dry as upper ridging builds to the north.

Temperatures through the extended period will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
GenerallyVFR through the TAF period, outside of any showers and
thunderstorms that are forecast. Sea breezes have moved through the
coastal terminals. A weak cold front will remain nearly stationary
just south of the area through tonight. Low pressure will pass just
south along this front tonight.

Thunderstorms over central and eastern pennsylvania will continue
to be watched as they move eastward tonight. Best timing for these
thunderstorms is 01z-03z for the nyc terminals. However, there is a
prob30 group to account for more thunderstorms from 04z-10z as exact
timing after 03z cannot be determined, but confidence is medium to
high that we will see thunderstorms during this time period. Chances
are lower, as well as confidence, for eastern terminals such as kisp
and kbdr where only vcts is mentioned from 00z- 10z, and there is no
mention of thunder for kgon, however an isolated thunderstorm is
possible for the same time period.

Any showers and thunderstorms have the potential to lower conditions
to MVFR or lower. Also, gusts associated with thunderstorms 04z-10z
have to the potential approach 30 kt.

Winds will shift from the south to the northeast tonight, then shift
to the southeast on Sunday for most terminals, with speeds generally
10 kt or less.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday afternoon-Monday night Episodes of shra tsra with
MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Tuesday An am shower possible at kgon, otherwiseVFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night Vfr.

Thursday Sub-vfr possible in shra tsra

Marine
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the waters around
long island through Sunday night, will limits sustained winds
to 15 kt or less, ocean seas to 4 ft or less, and seas waves on
the non- ocean waters to 1 ft or less through then.

Winds, gusts, and seas will remain below small craft levels Monday
through Thursday. However, ocean seas may approach 5 feet Wednesday
night into Thursday as an increasing southerly flow develops ahead
of a cold front. Waves of low pressure passing through the waters
will bring a chance of thunderstorms Monday and again Thursday into
Thursday night.

Hydrology
Currently expecting around 1 4-1 2 inch of rainfall across
southern portions of the CWA and less than 1 4 of an inch of
rainfall elsewhere through Sunday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible with any stronger convection tonight,
mainly over southern zones. If the locally heavy rainfall
occurs, it could result in at most minor flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas.

An additional 1 2 to 1 inch of rainfall is likely from Sunday
night into Monday night, with locally higher amounts possible.

There is a small chance for minor flooding or urban and poor
drainage areas, if any experience locally heavy rainfall.

More rain is possible late Wednesday night through Friday.

Significant hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
With the approach of the new moon (sun), tides will run high
this weekend into early next week. Positive tidal departures of
1 2 to 1 ft will be needed for minor flooding during the night
time high tides during this time.

Minor flooding is possible starting with the high tide cycle
this evening, mainly in the western south shore bays of long
island. A bit more widespread minor flooding is possible Sunday
night with an E NE flow expected. The threat for minor flooding
could continue into Monday, with E NE flow progged to continue.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for nyz072>075-176-
178.

Nj... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for njz006-104-106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Maloit met
near term... Maloit
short term... Maloit
long term... Met
aviation... Jp
marine... Maloit met
hydrology... Maloit met
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi52 min S 8 G 8.9 80°F 1008.9 hPa (-1.7)
44069 20 mi52 min S 1.9 G 3.9 80°F 85°F68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi52 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 78°F1009.9 hPa (-1.5)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi52 min E 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 1 ft70°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi67 min E 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 1 ft68°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi37 min ENE 7.8 G 7.8 80°F 70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi52 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 85°F 73°F1008.8 hPa (-2.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 51 mi62 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 80°F2 ft1009.3 hPa (-1.9)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 53 mi52 min 81°F 78°F1008.5 hPa (-2.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 54 mi62 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 78°F2 ft1008.9 hPa (-2.2)69°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi52 min SSE 14 G 15 1009.4 hPa (-2.1)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 57 mi37 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 1009.3 hPa62°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 58 mi52 min S 5.1 G 6 81°F 69°F1009.5 hPa (-1.5)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 58 mi62 min 79°F 77°F2 ft1010.1 hPa (-1.6)65°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi60 minSSW 410.00 miFair84°F57°F41%1009.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi56 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F63°F46%1009.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi56 minW 310.00 miFair86°F64°F48%1009.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi59 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F61°F46%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW12NW7SW8SW6SW6SW5SW7SW5SW4W4NW7N4CalmN5N9NE7CalmNE33S8S8S63
1 day agoSW8SW9SW11SW6SW5SW6W10W7W6NW8NW3W4W3W6NW4NW7NW6NW11N6NW10NW7W7W9SW8
2 days agoSW13SW12
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G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EDT     7.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:16 PM EDT     8.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.54.72.80.9-0.4-0.70.11.63.55.36.67.16.55.13.41.70.3-0.30.21.73.65.67.28

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:01 AM EDT     6.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:21 PM EDT     7.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.14.52.71.1-0.2-0.7-0.11.334.766.564.83.31.70.4-0.20.11.33.14.96.57.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.