Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Byram, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:28PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 317 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain this evening.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 317 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to shift farther offshore through Friday. A couple of low pressures systems moving through the mid atlantic will impact the area Friday night through Sunday night. A cold front moves through the region Monday. High pressure returns through the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Byram, CT
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location: 40.99, -73.62     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 132033
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
333 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure continues to shift farther offshore through
Friday. A couple of low pressures systems moving through the
mid atlantic will impact the area Friday night through Sunday
night. A cold front moves through the region Monday. High
pressure returns through the middle of the week.

Near term through tonight
A weak lingering 700 mb vorticity maximum and low level warm
advection are contributing to a few ongoing showers across the
area. As this system departs, a strengthening subsidence
inversion will suppress most activity and decrease the depth of
the moisture layer. The exception to this may be across interior
portions of the area - primarily northeastern nj, the lower
hudson valley and parts of connecticut, where the continuation
of weak upslope flow may lead to occasional light precipitation
through the night. Temperatures across these areas have remained
colder than guidance, in part due to persistent north to
northeasterly flow. Expect surface temperatures to remain below
freezing through the night. As warm advection slowly strengthens
above the surface through the night, profiles may become more
favorable for occasional light freezing drizzle. A special
weather statement (sps) has been issued to highlight this
potential.

Short term Friday through Friday night
Warm advection increases into Friday as high pressure moves
farther offshore and flow begins to strengthen ahead of a
developing low pressure systems to the west. Any ongoing
precipitation will quickly transition to rain, and with
lingering moisture beneath the inversion, mostly cloudy
conditions should continue, particularly in response to daytime
heating.

The onset of steadier precipitation has been delayed somewhat
from previous forecasts, with most expected to arrive late
Friday night as upper divergence with the approaching low allow
a coastal low to deepen to the south of the area.

Temperatures will be well above normal in the mid 40s to lower
50s in the day, and upper 30s to upper 40s at night.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A progressive and amplified long wave pattern will be across the
country at the beginning of the long term period, Saturday, as a
southern stream shortwave becomes separated, and closes off, from
the northern stream flow. The closed and nearly cutoff southern low
moves slowly eastward into Saturday night, with a series of vort
maxes rotating into the mid atlantic region.

Meanwhile the northern stream develops into a rather amplified ridge
moving into the northeast with an associated surface high.

This high has been suppressing the southern stream a bit farther to
the south with the current model guidance. While through the weekend
there is general agreement with the timing and placement of the
northern and southern stream systems, there remains some
uncertainty as to the timing of the southern stream shortwave
separation and then the movement of this low. With consideration of
the current trend of suppressing the southern stream low, and
uncertainty in timing, have opted to lower probabilities, especially
across the northern zones, Saturday through Sunday. A few bands of
heavier rain will be possible, however, there is uncertainty where
there will set up.

Sunday into Monday the southern stream low will be opening up and
may phase with the next northern stream shortwave moving into central
canada, the into the northeast Monday night.

Warm advection in advance of the southern stream low will allow
thermal profiles to warm through much of the atmosphere and all
liquid precipitation is expected with the series of lows Friday
night into Sunday. Colder air will begin to be pulled into the
region later Sunday night as the low departs, however, at this time
the colder air will be confined to the extreme northern zones.

With the passage of the northern stream shortwave Monday into Monday
night a canadian cold front passes through the area and returns the
region to below normal temperatures.

The longwave pattern remains progressive through next week with yet
another northern stream shortwave possible for Thursday.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
A combination of ifr MVFR coastal tafs and MVFRVFR across the
interior region this evening. Spotty very light precip is possible
with rain or drizzle near the coast and a mix further north. No
accumulation is expected.

Ifr is generally expected tonight. Patchy freezing rain or drizzle
is possible NW of nyc at kswf but not enough confidence to include
in the TAF at this time.

Ne-e winds 10-15 kt at the coast and 5 to 10 kt across the interior
will lighten tonight and become southeast. Light southeast wind near
10 kt is expected on Friday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 3 mi89 min NE 16 G 19 37°F 3 ft35°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 9 mi59 min NNE 16 G 19 43°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 15 mi59 min 42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi65 min NE 5.1 G 8 33°F 44°F1031.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 29 mi59 min 39°F 44°F1030.6 hPa (+1.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi59 min NE 13 G 15 38°F 1031.2 hPa (+1.4)
44069 35 mi59 min Calm G 0 53°F 50°F29°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi59 min 37°F 42°F1030.6 hPa (+1.5)
MHRN6 38 mi59 min NNE 8.9 G 11
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi59 min E 1.9 G 6 45°F 41°F1031.5 hPa (+1.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi59 min NE 9.9 G 12 31°F 45°F1032.6 hPa (+1.2)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 43 mi49 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 1030.3 hPa38°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY8 mi2.1 hrsNE 82.00 miFog/Mist32°F28°F88%1031 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi68 minNE 96.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F33°F86%1031.1 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi66 minN 05.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F36°F86%1031.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi68 minno data5.00 miFog/Mist37°F34°F89%1030.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY24 mi68 minN 106.00 miRain Fog/Mist38°F37°F97%1030.9 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ24 mi68 minN 64.00 miFog/Mist34°F30°F89%1030.9 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE3E3E5E8E6E8E10E8E8E8E9E8E9E6E8E7E6NE8NE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4W5NW12NW8W9NW9W7NW9NW7NW8NW10W6NW6W7NW12W9W9W9NW8W11W5
G15
2 days agoN6N5NE3N3NW4NW8N7N6NW3CalmNW3NW5NW5CalmCalmNW3NE4SE5SE74S5S4S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Great Captain Island, Connecticut
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Great Captain Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:55 AM EST     6.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:08 PM EST     7.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:33 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.15.56.66.96.45.33.92.61.61.21.52.64.15.56.67.16.85.74.22.81.60.90.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM EST     0.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:15 PM EST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.20.60.90.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.200.10.40.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.