Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Byram, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:55PM Thursday September 20, 2018 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 2:07AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 403 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 403 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build down from the canadian maritimes through Friday morning, then weaken Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move across Friday night into Saturday morning, settling to the south into early next week as strong high pressure builds to the north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Byram, CT
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location: 40.99, -73.62     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200801
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
401 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build down from the canadian maritimes through
Friday morning, then weaken Friday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will move across Friday night
into Saturday morning, settling to the south into early next week
as strong high pressure builds to the north. A slow moving frontal
system will approach during the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Scattered showers generated in area of blyr moisture
convergence sfc theta-e ridging, with additional lift via
passing weak mid level shortwave trough, have shifted out of the
nyc metro area west into north central nj and just outside our
area. As the sfc high builds SW this area will continue to shift
away from our area, with mostly sunny skies developing this
afternoon. High temps are a blend of GFS nam MOS guidance, with
all but the highest elevations reaching the lower 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
As a warm front passes to the north Thu night into Fri morning,
skies should become mostly cloudy, with a shower or two
possible well NW of nyc. Skies should remain mostly cloudy well
nw into Fri afternoon well in advance of a cold front as
moisture remains trapped beneath a low level inversion, with
partly cloudy skies east. S winds should increase, and also
become gusty Fri afternoon, with a sea breeze enhanced by
synoptic-scale flow, and perhaps some stronger gusts than fcst
especially NW of nyc Fri afternoon, depending on the strength of
the inversion. If on the weaker side, areas NW of nyc could see
gusts 25-30 kt well in advance of the approaching cold front.

High temps on Fri should be 70-75, which is close to average.

A moderate rip current risk exists through Thursday.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
A zonal flow will generally prevail through the weekend, with
the h5 flow amplifying across north america early next week.

Differences in timing and amplitude with the digging western
trough and eastern ridging remain through the middle of next
week.

Cold front moves across the area Fri night accompanied by
showers and tstms. There is a low chance that strong upstream
convection could produce strong damaging winds in areas NW of
nyc, but do not have a lot of confidence in this attm. The
convective line forecast to develop over western ny pa during
the day Fri is expected weaken as it approaches and moves across
the local area into a more stable environment during the late
evening and overnight hours.

Thereafter, a fall type air mass is likely for this weekend and
into early next week as the cold front settles to the south and
canadian high pressure builds into new england. With close
proximity to stalled boundary and under periphery of the
ridge upper jet, could be looking at mid and high clouds
streaming across through the weekend. A few sprinkles or light
showers may still possible across nyc metro and long island if
the boundary stalls close enough. Then a gradually increasing
chance for stratus and shower development Monday night with
approach of the next frontal system.

There is a good signal for a return to a moist tropical
environment for the middle of the week as deep trough amplifies
into the central states, and bermuda ridging holds strong. A
slow-moving frontal system will bring potential for rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the interior,
during this time along with a warm and unseasonably humid
air mass.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
High pressure remains over the region.

Areas of MVFR improving toVFR all arpts by 12z-14z. Stratus
will redevelop again tngt with CIGS around 2000 ft expected.

Winds becoming NE or vrb thru 10z, then veering to the SE thru
the day, and remaining SE tngt.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Monday
Tonight Slight chance of light rain with MVFR likely.

Friday-Friday night Vfr during the day, then a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR at night.

Saturday-Sunday An early shower Saturday, thenVFR through
the weekend.

Monday Chance of MVFR especially in the afternoon.

Marine
Sca remains in effect for the ocean today, seas 4-6 ft today and
running about 1 ft above guidance. It is questionable whether
5-ft seas could linger into this evening, so SCA not extended
into that time frame.

Increasing s-sw flow ahead of an approaching cold front should
produce SCA conds on most of the local waters late Fri fri
night. Winds should diminish by Sat morning, although SCA swells
on the ocean will likely linger into Saturday morning.

Sub advy conditions are then expected on all waters through the
remainder of the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.

Easterly winds likely strengthen Monday into Monday night ahead
of an approaching warm front, with potential for SCA conditions
to develop on the ocean.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts expected through tue. There
is potential for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms mid
to late next week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz350-
353-355.

Synopsis... Goodman 24
near term... Goodman
short term... Goodman
long term... 24
aviation... Jmc jc
marine... Goodman 24
hydrology... Goodman 24
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 3 mi36 min E 16 G 21 66°F 3 ft60°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 9 mi36 min E 9.7 G 12 74°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 15 mi33 min 74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi45 min 63°F 76°F1019.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 29 mi33 min 66°F 75°F1020 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi39 min 67°F 1019.5 hPa
44069 35 mi66 min ENE 14 G 16 64°F 74°F58°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi33 min 66°F 75°F1019 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi51 min ESE 7 G 8.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi33 min 66°F 74°F1020.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi33 min 62°F 77°F1020.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 43 mi31 min E 16 G 19 66°F 5 ft60°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY8 mi85 minE 510.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1018.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi30 minE 910.00 miOvercast67°F57°F71%1019.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi28 minENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F55°F80%1019.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F57°F75%1019.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY24 mi30 minENE 710.00 miOvercast65°F59°F81%1019.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ24 mi30 minENE 510.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N6N8N8N6N9N10NE7NW9N4SE5SE6E7E5E4E4E4E4E56E6E6E5E6
1 day agoS6S9S7S5S5SW6W5W7N9N3NW5N9N5NE3NW3CalmCalmNW7NW7NW6NW7NW9NW7N10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS35S8S6SE5SE6SE5SE5SE4SE4SE5SE5SE4SE6S4SE8S8S8
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Great Captain Island, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.