Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Napeague, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:24AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1011 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..N winds around 10 kt...becoming nw early...then becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming E 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the evening...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1011 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will move east across the waters today. Low pressure will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low pressure system may impact the waters Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Napeague, NY
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location: 41, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 301409
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
issued by national weather service taunton ma
1009 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure slides east across the region today. Low pressure
will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure
builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low
pressure system may impact the area Monday night and Tuesday.

Near term /through tonight/
1010 am update...

forecast is in good shape and no changes needed. Earlier
discussion follows...

northern stream shortwave energy slides east today with surface
high pressure building in from the west.

Tranquil and near seasonable conditions today as high pressure moves
across. Increasing high and mid clouds expected in the afternoon
ahead of the next approaching system.

Highs generally in the lower to mid 50s under light winds... Deep
mixing and late march solar insolation. If high clouds come in
a little thicker or earlier, temps could run slightly a degree
or two cooler than forecast.

Short term /Friday through Friday night/
Models in general agreement with a central plains closed
low tracking through the mid-mississippi river valley today and
into the ohio valley tonight. The low then begins to interact
with the northern stream as it slides to the east coast by
Saturday morning. Subtle difference exists in this
interaction... Which manifests in some timing and track
differences with the resultant coastal surface low as it
develops over the virginia piedmont Friday and tracks just south
of the area Friday night into Sat am.

The main impact from this system for most of the area will be a
soaking windswept rain developing late tonight into Friday morning
and continuing through Friday night before tapering off
Saturday morning. Ensembles generally clustered between 1 1/4
and 1 3/4 inches of liquid... With locally up to 2 inches
signaled.

Across interior portions of NE nj/lower hud valley/southern
ct... Thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to
complicate the forecast late tonight through Friday night. Storm
track will be critical... With a farther south track favoring
cooler and more wintry mix potential... While a track over nyc/li
favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain
rain.

At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/fri am... Evap cooling
will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and
snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming
aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With
that said... March boundary layer warming should allow for precip
in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon... Except
elevations above 750-1000 ft or so.

Late Fri aft into Fri night... Dynamics increase as closed low energy
approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area
to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time
low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary
layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic
processes can overcome warming aloft from SE LLJ to bring a
period of heavier sleet... Possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent
exceedance snow/sleet forecast covers this low potential for a
period of complete changeover to wintry precip. Another concern
is that temperatures across interior... Particularly higher
elevations... Could haver around/drop to freezing fri
night... Introducing the potential for freezing rain. Marginal
temp profiles will not support efficient icing... But the threat
of hazardous travel from light icing exists.

Based on above... This is a low confidence snow/sleet accum
forecast for the interior. At this point the most likely outcome
is varying combinations of mixed precip during the period with
a light slushy accum of sleet/wet snow/fzra across the
interior... Especially elevations above 750-1000 ft... By the
time everything winds down Sat am.

In terms of winds... Easterly winds increase Friday as a tight
gradient develops between high pressure anchored over SE canada and
developing coastal low pressure. 950 hpa LLJ appears to peak at 45-
50 kt across li/se ct late Friday into Friday night. Across the nyc
metro and much of the coast... Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are likely and
peak gusts to 40 mph possible. The LLJ peaks across eastern LI and
coastal SE ct Fri night... With gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and a
few peak gusts to 45-50 mph possible. Highest winds will be
along immediate coast.

The easterly winds will result in minor coastal flood concerns for
the Fri night high tide. See tides and coastal flood section.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
Good model consensus that low pressure will be tracking south of
nantucket on Saturday, then further out to sea Saturday night. As
this occurs, light precipitation on the back side of the system will
taper off through the day. Time heights show a lack of deep lift,
and therefore no ice crystals introduced, precluding snow. As a
result, some mixing with sleet was included in the forecast early
Saturday, with mainly rain expected across the majority of the area.

Any precipitation ends by Saturday evening at this time, with fair
weather then settling in for Sunday as high pressure builds in.

Increasing clouds on Monday as both northern stream and southern
stream moisture converge on the region. The ECMWF and GFS then
continue a latitude battle with regard to the southern stream low,
with the GFS about 150 miles north of the ecmwf. As a result of this
uncertainty several days out, the probability for rain has been
limited to the chance category. High pressure builds in in the wake
of the low for Wednesday, then another low may impact the area at
the end of the week. Increasing clouds with a low chance for rain
have therefore been forecast for Thursday. A blend of guidance was
used for temperatures except for Monday night, where the forecast
was weighted heavily towards to raw model data. In this case, the
potential clouds and rain would likely limit the climatology
influence evidenced by mos.

Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr conditions are expected through much of the TAF period as
high pressure continues to build in today. MVFR conditions move
in after 05z Friday as low pressure approaches tonight.

Conditions continue to deteriorate for the 30 hour TAF sites,
with ifr conditions at the end of the TAF period for these
sites. Light rain is expected after 09z, except a mix of rain
and ice pellets for kswf.

Northerly winds are gusting to 20kt near coast but winds will
diminish quickly early this afternoon, before giving way to sea
breezes 18z-20z with a wind shift to the south at kjfk and
klga, and to the south-southeast at kewr. Some interior
terminals become light and variable this afternoon.

Sea breeze timing looks good but could be 1-2 hours early.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 21 mi109 min 38°F 42°F3 ft1024 hPa (+0.0)24°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi39 min N 13 G 16 44°F 18°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi51 min N 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 40°F1022.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 32 mi69 min Calm G 3.9 41°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 48 mi51 min NE 8.9 G 14 43°F 41°F1023.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY10 mi45 minVar 6 mi42°F19°F41%1023.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi43 minN 910.00 miFair46°F19°F34%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE6NW5S5S5CalmNW12N13
G20
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G17
N9N11
G18
N11
G19
NW10--NW10NW9NW8N9NW7NW8--N9N76
1 day agoNE9E5------E76NE8NE7NE8N7N7N6N8N6NW9NW8N8--N8----N8N7
2 days agoS7S8S6S4--SE3CalmW4W5W4NW5NW4----Calm--E3----E56------

Tide / Current Tables for Promised Land, Napeague Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Promised Land
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:40 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.41.70.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.10.61.42.12.52.62.31.71.10.50.1-0.100.71.62.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:44 AM EDT     -4.11 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:49 AM EDT     3.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     -3.73 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     3.67 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51-0.8-2.6-3.8-4.1-3.3-1.70.11.93.23.62.91.70.1-1.7-3.1-3.7-3.3-2-0.31.533.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.