Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Noyack, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:17PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:33 PM EDT (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 915 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening...then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 915 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes well to the southeast of the waters tonight. A weak frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west through Tuesday then moves through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure follows for Thursday into Friday...with a cold frontal boundary approaching Friday night into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noyack, NY
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location: 41, -72.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 300254
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1054 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure moves well southeast of the area tonight. A weak
cold front slowly approaches from the west through Tuesday then
moves through late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

High pressure then briefly builds back for Thursday. A couple of
cold fronts follow for Friday night and Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Early update because of marine changes. Otherwise, the fcst was
on track with no major changes made. The earlier vorticity
maximums ahead of a broad upper low have moved offshore, ending
steadier rain across the area. Subsidence aloft observed on wv
imagery should act to maintain if not strengthen the low level
inversion. Given the continued onshore flow trapping moisture
beneath the inversion, periods of drizzle and patchy fog will
likely persist through the night. Cloud cover and onshore flow
will moderate temperatures overnight keeping values close to
climatological normals.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Fog and drizzle will likely continue through the morning,
particularly closer to the coast as onshore flow persists
beneath a low-level inversion. Although the low-level cloud deck
may lift some, clearing appears unlikely and as such any
instability ahead of the approaching system will remain
elevated. Shower chances will increase through the day from west
to east ahead of a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum. Any
thunderstorm chance will be greatest to the north and west of
the city, but thereafter the marine influence may gradually
decrease ongoing activity leading to mainly showers overnight.

At the moment instability appears weak, but if a stronger cell
can develop to the north and west of the city, given
strengthening deep-layer wind shear, small hail will be
possible. Onshore flow leads to lowering clouds and the
development of occasional drizzle and patchy fog once again,
outside of any steadier rain associated with the aforementioned
vorticity maximum. Similar to Monday, high temperatures will be
below normal while lows will be closer to climatological
normals.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at atlantic facing
beaches on Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
A cold front approaches on Wednesday and is forecast to move through
the area late in the day to early evening hours. Lift ahead of the
front, plus upward motion from a shortwave and possibly a coupled
jet structure aloft are expected to produce scattered showers during
this period. Capes are forecast to be high enough for some
thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts with 0-6km
shear around 50 kt. High temperatures near normal.

Zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging should keep us dry on
Thursday along with high temperatures once again near normal.

The timing of the next cold front is still uncertain as a closed
500mb low drifts across southern quebec Friday into Saturday. Looks
like the main cold front would pass through sometime on Saturday
with a weak front or pre-frontal trough shifting through the
region Friday evening. Will go with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon through Saturday for now.

Some uncertainty in the weather pattern continues into Sunday and
Monday, owing to differences among the models regarding the
magnitude of upper and surface ridging to our west behind the
departing upper low over the canadian maritimes. Prefer the
drier more ridging solution of gfs, so will go with dry conditions
on Sunday. Then with an upper trough axis moving closer on Monday,
isolated showers and thunderstorms with the cold pool aloft.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
Weak high pressure over the area will slowly give way to a
frontal system approaching from the west the next couple of
days.

This will keep the area under an easterly flow with low clouds,
fog, and a chance of light rain or drizzle.

Widespread MVFR conditions lower to ifr overnight, and then
gradually improve after daybreak. There is some uncertainty
though with ceilings and visibilities overnight as some of the
guidance indicates several hours ofVFR conditions as the low-
level ridge strengthens over the area with drier air working in
at the low levels. Confidence in this scenario is increasing,
but mainly for the terminals east of nyc.

Mainly MVFR on Wednesday with a chance of an afternoon shower
or thunderstorm from nyc metro nw.

E SE winds overnight at 5 kt or less, then ramping up to 7-12
kt Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night Low clouds with ifr conditions. Chance of
showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

Wednesday and Wednesday night Ifr to start, improving toVFR
by afternoon. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the afternoon evening hours.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday and Saturday Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR or lower conds.

Marine
The SCA was converted to a SCA for seas, and extended thru the
overnight with waves running about 5-6 ft, a ft abv wavewatch.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the region from Tuesday into
Friday morning should keep winds over the local waters below
advisory criteria. The pressure gradient then tightens, and
combined wind waves and swell could build seas to 5 ft on the
ocean by late in the day Friday, which could then linger through
Saturday. Non-ocean waters should remain below SCA criteria
during this period.

Hydrology
No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are expected
through the week.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks with
the high tide cycle tonight, mainly for the southern bays of
nassau nyc.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc md
near term... Jmc md
short term... Md
long term... Jc
aviation... Dw
marine... Jmc jc md
hydrology... Jc md
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi46 min 52°F 54°F1019.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 20 mi64 min E 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 1 ft53°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi44 min 53°F 54°F5 ft1019.5 hPa (+0.8)52°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi46 min N 2.9 G 5.1 52°F 54°F1019.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi46 min SE 2.9 G 7 55°F 61°F1019.6 hPa
44069 45 mi64 min E 12 G 14 56°F 63°F56°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi46 min ESE 4.1 G 7 55°F 1018.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi41 minESE 310.00 miOvercast53°F50°F89%1019.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi1.7 hrsNE 5 mi53°F50°F89%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5E5E7E8E6E8E7E9
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NE7NE5E53E3CalmE3NE3E3
1 day agoSE3CalmS3SW3CalmSE4SE3S3S6S6S9S7S10S11S9S8SE10SE8SE8E5E6SE7SE5SE8
2 days agoNW6NW4NW6W3CalmW3CalmW4NW10N12N8N10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Noyack Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Noyack Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:36 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:20 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.83.23.22.82.11.40.70.1-0.2-00.51.21.82.32.52.52.11.510.50.20.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.4-1.2-1.8-2-1.7-1.2-0.50.41.21.51.40.90-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.5-1-0.40.41.31.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.