Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asharoken, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:07PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:38 PM EDT (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 6:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 336 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 336 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will move across the area waters tonight into Friday morning. High pressure will build back in on Saturday, then slide offshore Sunday and Monday. A slow moving frontal system will then approach the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage by early Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asharoken, NY
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location: 41, -73.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 192002 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
402 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal passage will occur tonight. High pressure will
dominate from Friday night through Monday, moving offshore
Sunday through Monday. A slow moving frontal system will then
approach the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with a cold
frontal passage by early Wednesday. The front is slow to depart
farther away with a wave of low pressure developing along it and
approaching the area mid into late next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
An upper level system will track across hudson bay, into
northern quebec tonight. This will drag a cold front across the
forecast area late tonight. There is very little moisture to
work with so the frontal passage will be dry. Winds will
gradually shift from the southwest to the northwest overnight.

Lows tonight fall into the 40s and 50s. A mav met ecs blend was
in good agreement and used.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
High pressure builds back into the region behind the cold
front. Winds will remain from the northwest and gust into the
upper teens and lower 20s. There is a chance that gusts could be
slightly higher than forecast based on the amount of mixing
that occurs. Conditions remain dry. Winds gradually diminish
overnight, becoming light and variable across the interior.

Max temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Friday, with lows Friday night falling into the 40s and 50s. A
mav met ecs blend was used for the short term temperatures.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Warming trend for the weekend through Monday as the jet stream
remains north of the region with upper level ridging. At this
surface, the dominant feature will be high pressure eventually
moving offshore and the resulting s-sw flow. Mainly clear sky
conditions are expected to continue this weekend.

Clouds increase Monday into Monday night ahead of the next
frontal system. The next chance of rain showers arrives late
Monday night into Tuesday, when a deep upper level trough
approaches from the west.

The trough further deepens Tuesday along the eastern seaboard
with increasing meridional flow. This will give plentiful
moisture to a developing frontal system at the surface. The
frontal system will be approaching the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night with the region being in the warm sector to the
east of the low with strengthening southerly flow, thereby
increasing warm air advection. Precipitable water increases to
near 1.5 inches from the moisture advection. This is much above
normal for this time of year. According to okx sounding
climatology, it would be above the 90th percentile. Some
moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible.

The cold front moves across Wednesday morning, with a
substantial decrease in precipitable water thereafter to less
than 1 inch. The front slows down and is slow to depart away
from the region. The numerical forecast models show weak low
pressure development along it and the low approaching the region
mid into late next week, with rain shower chances continuing.

Temperatures are expected to be well above normal this weekend
through Tuesday with a gradual decline thereafter. Highs this
weekend through Tuesday are forecast to be well into the 70s
with lows trending to be well into the 50s and near 60 for some
locations along the coast and nyc. The highs are forecast to be
more in the 60s for next Wednesday and next Thursday.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure remains across the mid atlantic states into
tonight as low pressure tracks through eastern canada. A weak
cold front, associated with the low, moves across the terminals
late tonight dry. High pressure builds to the west during
Friday.

Winds SW to ssw around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt
diminish early this evening. Winds veering to W to wnw less than
10 kt. Winds will be right around 310 true during Friday, around
10 kt with frequent gusts up to 20 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 13 mi54 min S 12 G 16 69°F 1 ft51°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 15 mi57 min SSW 8 G 11 67°F 66°F1018.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi54 min S 12 G 16 69°F 49°F
44069 25 mi69 min SW 14 G 18 63°F 62°F55°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi51 min SW 13 G 15 68°F 66°F1019.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi51 min SW 16 G 18 66°F 66°F1018.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi51 min 70°F 67°F1019.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi51 min SSW 11 G 14 70°F 1019.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi49 min SSW 19 G 21 65°F 65°F4 ft1018.6 hPa (-2.7)56°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi51 min 71°F 66°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi47 minSSW 1410.00 miFair68°F51°F55%1018.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi43 minS 1110.00 miA Few Clouds65°F52°F63%1019.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY19 mi46 minSSW 13 G 1810.00 miFair65°F52°F63%1019.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi43 minS 510.00 miFair69°F39°F35%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S8SW7SW7SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW6SW10SW12SW10SW11SW12SW13S14
1 day agoSW7SW6SW13SW11SW15SW14SW15W8W7W6W7W7W3W4W6W7W5CalmSW7SW9SW10SW10S8SW7
2 days agoN10NW7NW4NW7NW5NW10N10N6NW7N5NW5N5NW3NW7N6N10N5N6CalmSE6S7SW8SW9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Eatons Neck Point, Long Island, New York
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Eatons Neck Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:44 AM EDT     8.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
875.12.91.1-0.1-0.30.52.44.878.38.67.863.81.70.2-0.5-0.21.23.45.77.3

Tide / Current Tables for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     8.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:56 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.66.54.82.81-0-01.12.956.98.18.27.25.63.61.50-0.50.11.73.65.67.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.