Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asharoken, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday August 17, 2017 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:36AMMoonset 4:28PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 719 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 719 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves north across the area waters tonight and into Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will approach on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asharoken, NY
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location: 41, -73.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180049
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
849 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach tonight and move north through Friday
morning. A cold front approaches Friday, moving across the
region late Friday night. A frontal system will slowly pass
offshore on Saturday. High pressure will then build in through
the beginning of next week, followed by a midweek cold frontal
passage.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Primary update this evening was to lower precipitation chances
through much of tonight based on current observational and hi-
resolution model trends. Best chance of any rainfall looks to be
right around rush hour in the morning as the warm front passes
northward. Previous discussion follows.

An area of low pressure will track east across the northern
great lakes tonight. A warm front associated with the system is
expected to approach this evening and lift north through the
local area overnight and into Friday morning. Showers and
possible thunderstorms will spread across the area overnight and
into Friday morning. Temperatures tonight will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
As a warm front moves north a strong southerly flow will usher
in behind, bringing an influx of moisture across the area.

Dewpoint will rise back into the 70s across the region along
with instability resulting in thunderstorms and heavy rain to
develop. There may be a break in the precipitation for a brief
time once the warm front lifts north, and until the cold front
nears later in the day. Storms will weaken and move into long
island and southern connecticut by Friday night.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
The frontal boundary sfc trof will slowly slide offshore on sat.

Trends will need to be monitored for a slowing of this feature, as
the main upr trof which will force it ewd is still progged to be
over oh at 18z sat. The slower the boundary exits, the slower shwrs
and especially clouds will exit. Based on the 12z data, areas along
and W of the hudson dry, with the rest of the area low chances for
pcpn. Dry weather Sat ngt thru Mon ngt with high pres progged to
move in.

12z GFS timeheights indicate sunny skies on Mon with perhaps some
fair wx cu, particularly along the sea breeze front.

Chances for shwrs and tstms Tue thru Wed ahead of a cold frontal
passage. Best chances are Wed closest to the front attm, so as the
event draws closer pops may be eliminated for tue.

A blend of the guidance and 2m data was used for temps thru the
period. The numbers will generally be abv average until the fropa
next week.

Aviation 23z Thursday through Tuesday
A warm front approaches from the southwest tonight. A cold front
will approach from late Friday.

Vfr early tonight before deteriorating conditions late tonight into
Friday. There is uncertainty with improving conds in the warm
sector after the warm fropa, may be too optimistic in the nyc
metro.

Friday will be very unsettled with the threat of showers and
scattered thunderstorms in the morning and then again with the
approaching cold front late in the afternoon. Gusty winds and
MVFR ifr are possible with any heavier shower or thunderstorm.

Light southerly winds overnight before increasing again 10 to
15 kt Friday. Gusts to 25 kt possible Friday afternoon across
much the region but especially along the coast.

Higher gusts possible with any thunderstorm.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 15 mi51 min S 6 G 9.9
44069 25 mi84 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 79°F69°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi51 min S 6 G 8.9 74°F 74°F1015.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi51 min S 5.1 G 7 73°F 76°F1015.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi51 min 74°F 74°F1015.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi51 min SSE 14 G 17 1015.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi79 min SE 9.7 G 12 74°F 75°F2 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.4)72°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi51 min 74°F 76°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi77 minS 510.00 miFair74°F62°F67%1015.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi73 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F64°F79%1015.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY19 mi76 minS 710.00 miFair72°F66°F82%1015.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi73 minS 410.00 miFair71°F60°F68%1015 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmN3N4NE3N4N6N5N5N7N7NE7NE6E5E6E8E7SE6SE4S5SE4SE5S7S5
1 day agoS5S3SW4SW4SW7W4W5SW5W4CalmNW3N5N11N8NW9
G16
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2 days agoS7S4CalmSW3SW4SW5SW5SW8S8S7S5Calm3E3S4SE5SE6SE4CalmS4S7S4S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Eatons Neck Point, Long Island, New York
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Eatons Neck Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:50 AM EDT     7.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     8.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.50.10.61.93.85.76.97.26.75.53.82.210.50.823.95.97.58.17.975.3

Tide / Current Tables for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     8.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.40.41.22.74.45.86.86.96.24.83.31.90.90.61.22.74.46.27.58.17.66.44.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.