Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 119 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Overnight - NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers likely. Thu - E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sat night - NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. A weak cold front pushes south of the forecast waters early this evening. High pressure builds in tonight and remains through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

ANZ300 119 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front pushes offshore and south of the coastal waters tonight. High pressure builds in overnight and remains through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

FXUS61 KOKX 160551 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Following a weak cold frontal passage, high pressure will build in from the northwest through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday.
High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday. The front remains not too far offshore on Sunday as high pressure tries to build in, then high pressure strengthens more on Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Spotty showers continue across SE CT and this should come to an end over the next hour. This appears to be associated with jet energy rounding the base of the amplifying upper trough across the Northeast.

Otherwise, cold front south of the area will continue to work south, while high pressure ridging across the Great Lakes begins to build in from the west.

Stayed with the latest forecast for lows, but this will be critical on how much winds lighten and the airmass radiates.
Lows will still be running 5 to around 7 degrees above normal, perhaps higher.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains over the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures again above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
Tuesday night temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A broad area of low pressure stretching from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley approaches on Wednesday. Moisture and lift with an associated warm front brings chances of showers mainly in the afternoon. Showers will be more likely starting late in the day for western zones, and early evening for most of the rest of the area. Upper support for the system weakens in the vicinity of the Great Lakes later Wednesday night, and deterministic models are still showing a weak low center developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast with perhaps some mid level shortwave energy. This low is still progged to remain south of the forecast area, but close enough to keep showers likely for most of the area through Thursday.

The low to the south doesn't move much during Friday with an inverted trough extending northward towards us. At the same time, a cold front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of the day will likely be dry, but cannot rule out an afternoon shower. A chance of showers then follows for Friday night into Saturday with the cold front passing through.

There's some question regarding how far south the departing cold front sinks during Saturday night through Sunday night.
Have therefore gone with slight chance/chance PoPs during this period. Weak high pressure then keeps us dry on Monday.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be within a few degrees of normal with the exception being Thursday, when highs will be only the lower 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds over the terminals tonight into Tuesday night.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds generally will be N to NW at 5 to 10 kt overnight. The winds become more NW into the morning and remain NW through Tuesday with speeds closer to 10 kt, and gusts around 15-20 kt by late morning until early evening. A coastal sea breeze will be possible later in the day, though there still remains uncertainty with this. Added TEMPO for wind shifts more to the SW at KJFK, KISP, and KGON. The winds lighten and remain mainly N to NNE Tuesday evening, becoming light and variable for outlying terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting Tuesday may be off by an hour or two. Gusts on Tuesday may be more occasional.

Late day S-SW sea breeze possible on Tuesday for KJFK, timing may be off by a couple of hours with confidence in occurrence below average.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue night: VFR. NW gusts end in the evening, mainly light N winds.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt.

Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The small craft advisory on the eastern ocean has been allowed to expire as seas generally get below 5 ft. Going forward winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through Wednesday.
Winds increase Wednesday night as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a broad area of low pressure approaching. SCA conds become likely on the ocean by the end of the night, and possibly on some of the other waters as well. Winds increase further during Thursday as a low center develops to the south.
Once again, advisory conditions still likely on the ocean and potentially for other spots. Winds diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell with on onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at least Friday morning. Sub- advisory conditions on all waters otherwise Friday afternoon through Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
The weather is dry overnight through Tuesday night. A half inch to inch of rainfall is expected from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected with this event.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Eatons Neck Point, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Greens Ledge
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Mon -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
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Greens Ledge, Connecticut, Tide feet

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