Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Greenwich, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:46PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 7:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 704 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late with gusts up to 25 kt early this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 704 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches from the southwest today slowly moving across the waters into this evening. A cold front moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds north of the region through late week as low pressure moves along a stalled frontal boundary south of the area. A stronger area of high pressure builds from the west through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Greenwich, CT
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location: 41.01, -73.57     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251155 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
755 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly move through the region through this
evening. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. High pressure then builds north of the region
through late week, as low pressure moves along a stalled frontal
boundary south of the area. A stronger area of high pressure
builds from the west through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect
latest observations, specifically temperatures and dew points.

Otherwise, a warm front will slowly approach the area today.

Overrunning moisture will allow for light rain showers at the
start. Convergence aloft seen on the kewr radar will mean radar
coverage should increase over the next few hours, coupled with a
strengthening 950 hpa jet, intensity of the rain should also
increase and become more stratiform. The rain will become
heavy at times this morning as the jet strengthens to 35 to 45
kt.

There remains a chance for heavy rain through the early
afternoon, then the threat will decrease from west to east as
the warm front moves through and the 950 hpa jet moves away from
the region. Also, precipitable waters will increase to 2 inches
during this time frame and dew points will rise into the upper
60s and lower 70s, another indication of locally heavy rainfall
possible. Conditions have been dry lately, so despite the threat
for heavy rain, widespread flooding is not expected, with minor
urban and poor drainage flooding being the primary concern. The
weather prediction center has placed the entire tri-state in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall, so isolated flash flooding
cannot be ruled out.

There is a high rip current risk for the atlantic beaches
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
As the warm front lifts north of the region, steady rain will
transition to light showers. Eastern areas may continue with
some moderate to briefly heavy rain at times as the 950 jet may
still be in that area. Thereafter, the rest of the night should
feature a chance for light rain showers and very humid
conditions. With abundant low level moisture, patchy fog will
be possible across the entire area. Some guidance is indicating
that the fog may be dense, especially with dew points rising
into the lower 70s region-wide. However, there was not enough
confidence to include dense fog in the forecast.

A cold front will approach on Wednesday. Pre-frontal trough
associated with the front moves into the region late in the day.

Elevated instability will allow for a slight chance for
thunderstorms in the morning. As the day progresses, there will
be a better chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon. With a
very moist air mass in place and strong winds aloft, some
storms may be strong as we head into the afternoon. Gusty winds
would therefore be possible with any thunderstorms. Lifted
indices in the -2 to -4 range indicates some threat for severe
thunderstorms, especially with the cold front approaching. Some
of these storms could produce damaging winds, but right now that
is a low threat.

There is a high rip current risk for the atlantic beaches
Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The cold front moves across the region Wednesday night with the
continued threat of showers and thunderstorms, some which may be
capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

High pressure then builds north of the region on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the cold front stalls south of the area with an area of
low pressure expected to travel along the front, possibly bringing
another chance of precipitation to the region on Thursday night and
early Friday.

A stronger area of high pressure builds into the area this weekend,
with dry weekend expected.

High temperatures Thursday through the weekend will climb into the
upper 60s and 70s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
MVFR and ifr stratus will be in place with some scattering out
of ifr stratus this afternoon. Low confidence on this scattering
out occurring. Rain moves in and lasts much of the day with
heavy rain at times. There will be a lull in the rain tonight,
with leftover low moisture resulting in likely ifr stratus and
some fog as well.

Winds will be gusty and out of the east to start, with sustained
speeds near 15kt and gusts 20-25kt. The winds become more SE and
then S after the warm front passage. Winds speeds and gusts will
also decrease also this afternoon into tonight. Winds become
light and variable tonight.

There will be a se-s low level jet of 40-45 kt at 2kft this morning
into early this afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 4 mi55 min E 23 G 33 63°F 5 ft62°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 12 mi40 min E 18 G 23 71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi40 min 59°F 71°F1029 hPa (-1.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi52 min 54°F 71°F1029.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi40 min 61°F 72°F1028.3 hPa (-1.1)
44069 33 mi40 min E 21 G 25 65°F 67°F65°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi40 min 61°F 1028.2 hPa (-0.9)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi40 min 61°F 71°F1027.3 hPa (-1.0)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi40 min 54°F 73°F1030.4 hPa (-1.0)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi40 min 68°F 70°F1028.1 hPa (-1.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi30 min ESE 23 G 31 68°F 70°F1026.3 hPa66°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 49 mi70 min E 21 G 25 62°F 71°F4 ft

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E6
G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY9 mi1.7 hrsE 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F52°F93%1028.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi47 minE 13 G 171.50 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist62°F61°F96%1028 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi49 minENE 132.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F57°F90%1027.9 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E9
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NE8NE10E8E8
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1 day agoNE3N5NE3NE5NE55E3E43CalmNE3NE3NE3CalmCalmN5NE3N3N5N6N5N4NE6NE6
2 days agoNW13NW15N12N12NW9
G17
N12N9N8N7N8NW6N6N5N7N6N4N3N3NE5N3N3N5NE4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Cos Cob Harbor, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.