Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Greenwich, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:06PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 3:37 AM EDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:31PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1229 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1229 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the region through mid week. A warm front passes to the north late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Another cold front moves through the area on Friday. High pressure slowly builds back in on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Greenwich, CT
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location: 41.01, -73.57     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190521
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
121 am edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the region through mid week. A
frontal system moves across the area on Thursday with a
potential coastal low passing to the south and east of the area
Thursday night into Friday. A cold front then moves through the
area on Friday, followed by high pressure into early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Made minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and sky
cover to better match current conditions, otherwise the forecast
remains on track.

Low temperature forecast may be tricky for some suburbs as
winds will be light to calm, promoting radiational cooling, but
varying cloud cover brings uncertainty to the cooling potential.

Went with a mav met MOS blend for spots that normally see
stronger radiational cooling.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Tuesday starts with a sunny sky with high pressure in control. Once
again, a mid level shortwave and surface trough approach, passing
through in the late day early evening hours. Much like tonight,
there's enough 850-700mb moisture for cloud cover, but a dry enough
sub-cloud layer to keep with a dry forecast. Clearing follows later
in the night. High and low temperatures expected to be within a
couple of degrees of normal, except a better chance of radiational
cooling will allow lows to drop into the low 20s for some of the
northern suburbs and pine barrens region.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
While the overall upper air pattern is fairly well resolved
through the extended period, there are complex interactions
with northern branch energy that will determine the proximity of
a coastal low to the area Thursday night into Friday.

The focus of concern is multiple northern branch streams sending
shortwave energy southward from central canada into the mean
upper trough over the east. The first of which dives into the
mid mississippi valley Wednesday morning, and the second, into
the upper great lakes. As these two features translate toward
the eastern seaboard Thursday, a fair amount of uncertainty
exists with their interaction. Overall, global models do
support some phasing, but far enough offshore at this time to
spare a significant precipitation event. The caveat here is that
the trends support secondary low development farther to the
north and west. The 12z GEFS clearly has more members showing a
low 990 mb less near the benchmark Thursday night. The 12z
operational ECMWF has the low just inside the benchmark with
over an inch of liquid across long island and much of
connecticut. This GEFS mean is supporting a wetter solution. The
ggem also wraps up the system, but well offshore over the
western atlantic.

The current forecast is calling for all rain Thursday into
Thursday night with a possible mix of snow early Thursday
morning across western portions of orange county should the
precipitation arrive early enough. This would not amount to
much. The concern is that should a more amplified, dynamic
system be closer to the coast, flags for a heavy wet snow event
will need to be raised. The good news though is that we are not
there yet.

Cold front moves through the area Thursday night with a prolonged
period of gusty w-nw winds through the first half of the weekend
before high pressure gets closer to the area Sunday into Monday.

Nearly seasonable temperatures to start the period will drop to
below seasonable levels Thursday night into Friday. However,
readings will rebound early next week as the upper trough lifts
out and ridging builds in.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr through the TAF period with high pressure over the
terminals. Sct to bkn clouds 5-7kft are forecast this afternoon
and evening.

Light SW flow at city terminals will become NW around 5 kt by
09z. NW winds under 10 kt are forecast at all terminals after
12z. Winds gradually back to the w-sw late early this
afternoon and potentially more s-sw late in the day. Winds
diminish and become light and variable after 00z.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night-Wednesday night Vfr.

Thursday MVFR or ifr in rain showers

Friday Vfr. NW g20-25kt

Saturday Vfr and windy. NW g25+ possible.

Marine
Tranquil conditions will continue over all waters through mid week
with a high pressure ridge stretching across the area. High pressure
on Wednesday gives way to a frontal system moving across the
waters Thursday. There remains uncertainty with the proximity of
an offshore low development Thursday night into Friday morning.

A prolonged period of SCA conditions is likely late Thursday
night into the weekend with strong w-nw flow. Gales are also a
possibility depending on the track of the low Thursday night and
again Friday night into Saturday due to a strong cold advection
and a tight pressure gradient behind the low and high pressure
building in from the west.

Hydrology
No impacts anticipated through at least Wednesday. Hydrologic
impacts will be highly dependent on the proximity of coastal
low developing to the south and east of the area Thursday night
into Friday. At this time, the best chance for significant
rainfall of an inch or more looks to be across eastern long
island and southeast ct.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc dw
near term... Feb jc
short term... Jc
long term... Dw
aviation... Ds
marine... Jc dw
hydrology... Jc dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 6 35°F 38°F1029.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi43 min N 2.9 G 4.1 31°F 38°F1027.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi43 min 38°F 41°F1028.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi43 min N 9.9 G 13 38°F 1028.9 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi43 min WNW 8.9 G 11
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi43 min W 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 41°F1028.4 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi43 min WNW 7 G 8 38°F 45°F1029.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi27 min W 3.9 G 5.8 39°F 41°F1028 hPa31°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY9 mi41 minNW 510.00 miFair27°F16°F63%1028.1 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi44 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F25°F82%1027.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi46 minNNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F17°F41%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmW3NW10NW9NW10W11
G17
NW10NW11NW10NW8W7NW11NW8CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW4NW5NW5
1 day agoW7NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Stamford, Connecticut (2)
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Stamford
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:36 AM EDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:03 PM EDT     8.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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64.22.30.6-0.5-0.50.72.64.86.788.17.15.33.21.2-0.3-0.9-0.31.43.65.87.48.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:41 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.200.30.81.10.80.40-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.4-0.10.20.61.110.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.