Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Riverside, CT

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Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:32 AM EDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 8:15AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1242 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Overnight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1242 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front across the waters gradually lifts north through the morning and afternoon as a warm front. Low pressure and a trailing cold front move through tonight. The cold front will moves offhore early on Friday, with high pressure returning for the weekend. Another frontal system will approach early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riverside, CT
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location: 41.02, -73.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200448
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1248 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front stalled near the area will remain through
this morning, then move across the region as a warm front
this afternoon and evening ahead of approaching low pressure
and a trailing cold front. The cold front will move through
Thursday night then pass east on Friday, with high pressure
returning for the weekend. Another frontal system is forecast to
approach on Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
The stationary front will begin to lift north towards the region
before day break. A band of showers and a few thunderstorms
across eastern pa and southern nj is progged by the high res
models to lift north. A gradual weakening trend is noted, but
have raised pops and included mention of thunder from the city
north and west. Any of these showers could produce a heavy
downpour.

Otherwise, areas of patchy fog and stratus will develop with
temperatures remaining nearly steady, in the 60s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
The warm front gradually lifts north through the morning and
afternoon. Some question as to if it fully clears our
connecticut zones, but should eventually be forced north as low
pressure approaches from the west this evening. The approach of
this surface low will increase chances for showers tstms
especially for NE nj and perhaps also nyc and adjacent portions
of the lower hudson valley. A few strong tstms may be possible
by late day in near these areas as instability increases in the
warm sector and as mid level wsw flow increases to near 40 kt.

Showers and possible thunderstorms will continue Thursday night
as the cold front moves through the area.

High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80 across
the nyc metro area and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

There will be a low rip current risk for atlantic ocean beaches
today.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
A shift in the long wave pattern over the CONUS will begin to take
place during the early portion of the long term period. The 500 mb
trough axis should get east of the entire CWA by 15z Friday, or
thereabouts. Will carry chance pops early on Friday, with the
highest pops across northern and eastern sections of the cwa, but
then we should get good clearing with strong NVA and strong dry air
advection for the afternoon. Some PVA may try to spill in late in
the day on Friday and with a bit of a cold pool leftover aloft may
get a period of clouds late Friday and early Friday evening, but
overall a good clearing trend takes shape during Friday and into the
weekend.

Deep layer ridging will then set up shop over the region throughout
the weekend as heights gradually climb. By Sunday heights begin to
approach 580 dm. After a dry and seasonable weekend temperature wise
across the cwa, with a building ridge and a gradual turn of the
winds to the wsw, temperatures and humidity levels will begin to
climb into the early portion of next week. Temperatures at 850 mb
are forecast to approach 16 to 18 c by Monday afternoon on much of
the global guidance. Naefs and ECMWF ensemble means are pointing to
the 500 mb ridge axis moving over or just east of the region towards
0z to 6z tue. Therefore, have decided to gradually introduce and
bump up pops from west to east through early next week, with the
greater chance of precipitation and possible thunderstorms for late
Monday into Tuesday. A more noticeable climb in temperatures and
humidity levels are likely by later Monday and into Tuesday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
A stalled frontal boundary remains just south of the terminals
through tonight. The front is expected to lift north of the
terminals on Thu as a warm front, as a wave of low pres
approaches from the west in the afternoon.

Ifr lifr expected to remain overnight once again at area
terminals. CIGS are more certain than vsby, which has been more
of a challenge past few nights. Once the front lifts through thu
morning, conds should improve to MVFR, thenVFR, with gon
possibly the exception.

Isolated showers will continue through the overnight hours,
although several hi res models are indicating a bit more
development occurring between 07z and 12z, mainly western
terminals. Otherwise, widespread activity will hold off until
the aftn when the wave and attending cold front approach.

Chances for showers tstms increase aft 18z.

Easterly winds less than 10 kt become light and vrb overnight,
then slowly increase 5-10kt out of SE Thu morning, veering more
to the S behind the warm fropa.

Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday
Thursday night MVFR possible, mainly in tstms at western
terminals. MVFR-ifr likely redevelops after dark at eastern
terminals, chc shra tstms.

Friday Chance of showers in the morning with MVFR, otherwise
vfr. NW gusts around 25 kt.

Saturday and Sunday Vfr.

Monday Vfr am, chc MVFR shra TSTM pm.

Marine
A weak flow across the waters will result in sub-sca conditions
through tonight. Patchy dense fog cannot be ruled out this
morning and could remain into the afternoon.

Sca conditions are likely to develop across the ocean waters on
Friday with seas approaching 5 ft. A period of SCA winds is also
likely on the ocean, south shore bays, peconic bay, and perhaps the
eastern sound during Friday afternoon and early Friday evening.

Marginal SCA conditions will then follow on the ocean waters through
Friday night mainly due to 4 to 5 ft seas. Sub SCA conditions then
return during the day on Saturday with NW winds gusting up to 20 kts
for some of the near shore waters. Seas and winds will then diminish
further into Saturday night and Sunday. Sub SCA conditions are
expected to continue into Monday with the winds becoming more
southerly late in the day and at night.

Hydrology
Basin avg rainfall through tonight should range from 1 2 to 1
inch across NE nj into nyc, with lesser amts farther
north east. An additional 1 2 to 3 4 inch expected Thu into thu
night, bringing totals through Thu night to 1-1.5 inches across
nyc and NE nj, and 1 2 to 3 4 inch farther east. Locally higher
amts possible with any heavier showers that graze parts of ne
nj later today, also with heavier tstms late day Thursday. Any
rain will end during Friday morning, followed by a stretch of
dry conditions through the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides will be relatively high through Thursday evening
due to the recent full moon. Tides should fall short of minor
coastal flooding benchmarks for most locations on the south shore
back bays of nassau and queens. An isolated occurrence of touching
minor coastal flooding benchmarks cannot be ruled out. Do not
anticipate any coastal flood statements being issued.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Je fig
near term... CB fig ds
short term... Fig
long term... Je
aviation...

marine... Je fig
hydrology... CB je fig
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi51 min ENE 4.1 G 6 65°F 64°F1007.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 25 mi57 min ENE 5.1 G 7 63°F 64°F1007.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi45 min 67°F 65°F1006.9 hPa
44069 35 mi48 min E 9.7 G 12 65°F 70°F65°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi45 min ESE 6 G 6 67°F 1006.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi51 min 67°F 68°F1007 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 64°F 67°F1007.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi45 min ENE 6 G 8 65°F 67°F1006.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi33 min SE 9.7 G 12 67°F 66°F1006.3 hPa (-1.6)67°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY8 mi97 minE 50.50 miFog64°F64°F100%1007.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi40 minESE 51.25 miFog/Mist65°F64°F100%1007.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi42 minNE 80.25 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist65°F64°F97%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmN5N3CalmCalmSE5SE6SE5SE7S6SE5SE6SE6SE7E7SE8E6E8E5E6E6E5E5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE4SE3CalmSE5SE5S5SE4E6SE7SE9CalmNE6E4E4NE4E5NE55E3E3Calm
2 days agoN4NW3NW3CalmNW4N8N9W5NW7NW3CalmSE6W3NW6NW4NW5N4CalmSE5CalmS5S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cos Cob Harbor, Connecticut
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Cos Cob Harbor
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Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT     7.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     7.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.37.57.97.35.94.22.410.20.31.43.14.86.37.176.14.73.21.9111.93.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.30.80.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.60.90.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.