Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dobbs Ferry, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:45PM Monday April 23, 2018 5:36 AM EDT (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:54PMMoonset 2:36AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 350 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 350 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will drift off the coast today. Low pressure then approaches Tuesday into Tuesday night and then passes to the northeast Wednesday night. Another low pressure system may impact the region Friday or Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dobbs Ferry, NY
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location: 41.02, -73.88     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230904
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
504 am edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the northeast will drift offshore
today, and further over the atlantic on Tuesday. Low pressure
will affect the region Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

Another low pressure or frontal system may affect the region
Friday or Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
It was skc this mrng across the fcst area. A 1032 high was
centered over vt nh at 3am per msas. This high will drift
off the coast today. Light winds, gaining a sea breeze
component this aftn, and sunny skies can be expected. A blend of
the met mav was used, which takes areas W of the hudson river
close to 70.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The high will continue to slide ewd thru the period, allowing
low pres over the southeast to draw closer to the cwa. The
models have been consistent in holding off on pcpn until tue
eve, so pops have been scaled back during the day on tue. Main
challenge will be clouds, as the modeling suggests a dense
cirrus developing as early as tngt. Water vapor imagery supports
the supply of moisture, so clouds have been ramped up late tngt
and all of tue. Tue looks mainly ovc attm. This cloud shield
should keep temps from bottoming out like they did this mrng,
so the fcst has been warmed abv guidance. Of course, if clouds
don't increase as expected tngt, temps will verify lower than
fcst. With a lgt onshore flow, there could be some patchy fog.

The superblend was used for tue, with the increasing sely flow
limiting temps.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Models continue in good agreement with a large southern closed upper
low over the tennessee river valley Tuesday, opening and lifting
into the NE us through Wednesday in response to northern stream
shortwave energy moving into the upper midwest great lakes. At the
surface, resultant low pressure lifts towards the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and then to the north Wed night thu. One
interesting feature to be watched, that is being picked up by the
operational models (very clearly in the nam), is development of a
sub-tropical wave within wcb convection off the SE coast Tuesday.

This features then rides north up the coast in the wcb and either
merges or swings around the primary low as it approaches the region
wed.

Overall, a soaking rain with breezy E SE winds is expected to
develop across the area late Tuesday night and continue into
Wednesday afternoon. Timing differences still exist on timing of
heaviest rain, during the late Tuesday night into Wed afternoon time
period. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm Wed morning into
afternoon along ahead of approaching warm front with weak elevated
instability and forcing from approaching shortwave energy and 55-65
kt SE llj. Most operational solutions are muted with the development
of a sub-tropical wave, keeping rainfall to a 1 2 to 1 inch event.

Meanwhile the NAM is denoting potential for a heavier rainfall with
a stronger wave and sub-tropical atlantic moisture inflow, resulting
in a 1 to 2 inch rainfall. This interaction will have to be
monitored over the next 24 to 36 hrs, as the NAM may be resolving a
convectively induced wave better than other operational guidance. In
any case, have increased QPF to 3 4 to 1 1 2 inches based on upward
trend in GEFS and SREF mean and mode, and to capture potential for
the stronger sub-tropical connection noted in the nam.

Interestingly, the operational GFS is a the bottom of the envelope
of QPF spread of GEFS members. Highest QPF amounts are favored
across nyc metro, NE nj, lower hudson valley and SW ct with
orographic lift of moist SE inflow. Otherwise, models in general
agreement with best forcing moisture move NE Wed afternoon into wed
eve, with lingering showers Wed night, a slower trend than 24 hrs
ago.

Thereafter, models still have notable spread in the evolution of the
above mentioned upper midwest great lakes trough, as its energy
splits N S during the mid to late week period. Differences exist in
the strength of the southern energy that splits off, and with the
amplification of the northern energy over the eastern great lakes
and northeast Wed night Thu as it phases with the initial southern
wave moving up the coast. This is further complicated by differences
in evolution of the next northern stream shortwave diving into the
central us for late week, that does a similar split. It appears the
evolution of the northern portion of this energy, and the
interaction (if any), with the southern energy that got left behind,
will be a key determinant in sensible weather for Fri sat. So a
complex forecast to say the least. At this point, it appears
there is potential for a progressive low pressure or frontal
system to affect the region during the Friday or Saturday time
period, but predictability on details remains low. Will continue
with low chance of showers in the forecast during this time to
denote the potential.

Temperatures during this time period will be seasonable, except a
few degrees below seasonable Wednesday with low pressure
affecting the region. In fact, if the more progressive less
amplified solutions are correct, Thursday into Saturday could be
slightly above seasonable, pushing 70 for nyc nj metro and
solidly in the 60s elsewhere.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
High pressure moves across the terminals through midday and then
moves offshore for the remainder of the TAF period.

Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly
clear conditions through much of the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable initially, eventually becoming ne-e near 5 kt
this morning and then s-se 5-10 kt late this morning into this
afternoon.

Expect some variance of 1-3 hours at individual terminals with
the timing of the wind direction shifts. Winds become lighter
and more southerly tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi49 min Calm G 0 46°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi49 min 46°F 46°F1030.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 27 mi49 min N 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 1030.9 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi49 min N 2.9 G 2.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi49 min 43°F 48°F1030.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi55 min Calm G 1 45°F 50°F1031.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi55 min N 1.9 G 2.9 41°F 46°F1030.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 46 mi37 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 45°F1030.3 hPa (+0.4)42°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N11
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N20
G26
N17
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N15
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N12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY9 mi41 minNW 710.00 miFair39°F28°F65%1030.1 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ14 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair41°F28°F62%1030.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY17 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair47°F30°F52%1030.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY17 mi46 minNE 410.00 miFair46°F37°F71%1030.1 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ23 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair37°F30°F79%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6NW3W6NW5W10NW13W8
G15
NW7NW8NW5NW3S9S9
G16
S7SE3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW4NW5NW7
1 day agoNW8NW7NW10NW9W9W11W13NW5
G18
W11
G20
W12NW13
G21
NW9NW11NW9NW5W5NW6CalmN4N5NW5NW7NW6NW10
2 days agoNW12NW16
G23
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G28
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G24
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G24
NW15
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NW15
G22
NW12N12NW6NW5CalmNW5NW9NW10NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Dobbs Ferry, Hudson River, New York
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Dobbs Ferry
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Mon -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:24 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:20 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.92.83.43.73.63.32.51.81.20.70.20.20.81.72.533.33.32.82.11.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:57 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-0.7-0.30.30.80.90.70.4-0.2-0.7-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.7-0.20.40.70.60.50.1-0.4-0.8-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.