Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:08PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 7:56 PM EDT (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 8:30AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 636 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 636 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the midwest. The front passes through the waters Thursday night. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springs, NY
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location: 41.04, -72.19     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 222344
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
744 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure continues to move offshore tonight as a cold front
approaches from the midwest. The front passes through the area
Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region for Friday
and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the region late
Saturday into Sunday. The front will stall to the south of the
region Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through Monday
night. High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Main update this evening to update sky cover, as an opaque area
of cirrus is moving into the lower hudson valley and will
quickly spread eastward. High temperatures seem to have peaked
later in the day, allowing deeper mixing and lower dew points
than previously forecast. Otherwise, forecast remains on track
with seasonable temperatures and a chance of showers tonight.

Previous discussion follows.

Both the upper and surface ridges will translate east tonight
with a return southerly flow developing by this evening. This
will result in gradually increasing low-level moisture with
overnight lows near or just above seasonable levels.

Warm advection on the backside of the departing ridge will
allow for increasing mid and upper clouds overnight along with
a chance of showers. The best chance will be from nyc and points
west as drier will be slow to erode to the east. Rainfall
amounts will be light and generally less than a tenth of an
inch.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Early morning showers will become isolated by afternoon as the
warm advection wanes. Any rain in the morning should be on the
light side.

The potential for a round of more significant convection arises
during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Thursday.

An upper low north of the great lakes on Thursday will track
ese, sending height falls into the region. This coupled with
moistening low-levels will destabilize the airmass. Their are
mixed signals from the guidance during this period as to whether
all the ingredients will come together at just the right time
to erode a low-level cap and overcome dry air in a deep-layered
westerly flow aloft. Additionally, the best dynamics will
reside north of the area. Mid level lapse rates do steepen to
around 7-8 deg c km and 0-6 km bulk shear is around 50 kt. Href
members show varying solutions with most in the camp of the
convection being scattered in nature. There is also the question
as to whether the shear is sufficient to maintain a cold pool
to push through the maritime airmass. So yes, there could be a
few strong and or severe thunderstorms, but that should mainly
be to the north and west of nyc. The convection will likely
dissipate as it approaches the coast. The best timing looks to
be between 6 and 10 pm, from west to east.

Warm advection during the first half of the day will result in
mostly cloudy skies, but there should be some breaks in the
afternoon. This will also be a factor into how much we can
destabilize.

Gusty s-sw winds ahead of the front will get up to 25 mph,
mainly near the coast.

Highs will be nearly seasonable levels, in the upper 60s at the
coast, to the mid 70s north and west of nyc.

Cold front passes through between 10 pm to 1 am Thursday night
with gusts NW up to 25 mph developing toward daybreak.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
High pressure builds across the region on Friday and most of the day
on Saturday, so expected dry conditions with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s on Friday and upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday. A
cold front will then approach the region Saturday evening and
overnight, bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The front should push south on Sunday keeping the area under a
slight and chance probabilities of showers Sunday and into memorial
day. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
temperatures on memorial day in the mid to upper 70s.

Dry conditions return on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will start out in
the low 70s then warm up into the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
High pressure just offshore moves farther out to sea into
tonight.

Vfr through this evening with winds at 10kt or less.

For Thursday, a few showers possible within a few hours either
way of daybreak, but mostlyVFR. Tstms and sub-vfr conds
possible late aftn early evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 12 mi56 min 57°F 55°F1023.6 hPa (+0.7)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi46 min SSE 13 G 14 55°F 1023.1 hPa48°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi56 min S 8.9 G 12
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi36 min SSE 14 G 16 55°F 54°F1024.2 hPa49°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 42 mi56 min NW 8.9 G 13 71°F 60°F1022.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY15 mi62 minS 6 mi58°F48°F70%1024.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi60 minSSE 910.00 miFair59°F45°F60%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS6SW7S7SW7SW5SW8SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     -3.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:39 AM EDT     2.59 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:55 PM EDT     -2.61 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:51 PM EDT     2.48 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.70.5-0.9-2.3-3.1-3.2-2.4-1.30.11.52.42.52.11.20.1-1.3-2.3-2.6-2.2-1.2-01.22.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.