Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:42PM Monday September 24, 2018 12:59 PM EDT (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:53PMMoonset 5:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1220 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1220 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from southern canada today. A warm front approaches Tuesday, lifting to the north late in the day. A cold front will then pass over the waters Wednesday night. High pressure then builds north of the region through late week, while a series of weak lows move along a stalled frontal boundary south of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241331
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
931 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
Dry and unseasonably cool weather will continue into this
evening. An approaching warm front will bring a soaking heavy
rain to the region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Warmer and
humid weather returns Wednesday with scattered showers
thunderstorms. Some uncertainty regarding the forecast late this
week into next weekend, but overall mainly dry and seasonable
weather will dominate.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
930 am update...

1038 mb high pressure over quebec has sent a back door cold front
across all of southern new england at mid morning. The surge of
shallow cool air has resulted in northeast wind gusts of 20 to
30 mph along the coast... Along with a batch of low clouds. While
some of the clouds will scatter out at times especially in N and
ne ma... They may try to fill back in with any diurnal heating.

Therefore... Feel clouds will dominate through the afternoon
despite some peeks of sunshine and it will remain gusty along
the coast.

A chilly airmass for this time of year as 925 mb temps cool to
6-8c, even some 4c air across NE ma. Highs will range from the
mid upper 50s across central and NE ma to the lower 60s across
lower elevations of ct ri.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

expect some clearing in the evening with just high clouds,
especially across eastern new eng which will allow for decent
radiational cooling for the first part of the night. Low temps
should drop into the 40s across much of the region. Clouds will
increase overnight and leading edge of overrunning rain may move
into portions of western ma and northern ct toward daybreak. The
rest of sne should remain dry.

Tuesday...

a widespread soaking rainfall expected as warm front approaches
from the south with good forcing for ascent aided by a low level
jet. However, timing of heaviest rainfall for eastern new eng
may be delayed until the afternoon. Pwats approach 2 inches
which is 2sd above normal and low level wind anomalies are
2-3sd above normal. This is a good signal for heavy rainfall.

Fortunately, instability aloft is limited so rainfall rates
should not be excessive. Rainfall amounts through Tue will
average 1-2 inches in the interior where best forcing is located
along the nose of the low level jet. Locally higher amounts are
possible per hi-res guidance. Less rainfall with amounts less
than an inch expected across SE new eng. Widespread flooding is
not anticipated with just the typical urban and poor drainage
street flooding.

Temps will start out on the chilly side in cool sector north of
the warm front, but will rise through the 60s in the afternoon,
especially south of the mass pike. Temps may remain in the 50s
across interior northern ma for much of the day before rising
tue night. Gusty SE winds with gusts to 25-35 mph possible
across SE new eng in the afternoon as the low level jet moves
through.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* widespread soaking heavy rain into Tue evening
* much warmer & muggier Wed wed eve with scattered showers t-storms
* forecast uncertainty thu-sun... But favoring mainly dry & seasonable
details...

Tuesday night...

warm front approaching from the south with core of low level
southerly jet (45-50kt) across eastern ma and exiting offshore. Thus
heaviest rain likely confined to eastern ma Tue evening then moving
offshore. Thus rain should transition to more showery weather
overnight tue. Although with pwats around 2 inches, can't rule out a
few tropical downpours. Also with dew pts surging upward thru the
60s expect areas of fog possible. Therefore temps likely rising
overnight.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

good model agreement on warm sector overspreading the region with
all model guidance offering +20c to +21c air at 925 mb wed! These
warm temps aloft should easily support highs Wed afternoon near 80
and perhaps a few degs warmer if some breaks of sunshine develop as
clouds thin Wed afternoon. Humid as well with dew pts climbing into
the low 70s. Thus a summer-like day along with about 500j of cape.

This instability combined with approaching cold front will result in
a round of convection, potentially a few strong to severe storms
possible. Heavy rain possible too with pwats surging up to 2+
inches, which is about +2 to +3 standard deviations. Something else
to watch is a tropical disturbance southwest of bermuda this
morning. This feature may get entrained into the SW flow along the
eastern seaboard and ride northeast along or ahead of approaching
frontal boundary wed-wed night. This would increase the heavy
rain flood threat here.

Thursday through next weekend...

lower heights across new england suggest a cooling trend but with
southeast ridge holding strong the core of the cooler air will
remain across the great lakes into the high plains. Mainly dry
weather should prevail, however some signs that cold front from wed
night gets hung along our south coast with a wave of low pressure
possibly bring a period of rain here Thu night into Fri morning.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... Moderate to high confidence. A scattered to overcast
deck of marginal MVFR-vfr CIGS will continue through the
afternoon. NE wind gusts of 25 knots along the coast and perhaps
near 30 knots through early afternoon.

Tonight... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR. Leading edge of
rain and MVFR conditions will likely reach portions of western
ma and northern ct 09-12z.

Tuesday... High confidence.

Widespread ifr developing with rain heavy at times moving west
to east across sne. SE wind gusts to 30 kt along the coast.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Shra likely, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, chance tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, chance tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Today... Small craft headlines remain in place for all waters. Ne
wind gusts to 25-30 kt expected with 5 to 8 foot seas across
the open waters. This a result of long northeast fetch and good
mixing with cool advection over the relatively warm ocean.

Tonight and Tuesday... Easterly gusts to 25-30 kt will persist
across south coastal outer waters tonight, with 30 kt gusts
expanding north across eastern ma waters during Tue as winds
veer to se. SCA continues.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers, patchy
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft.

Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for anz232>235-237-
250-251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz231.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Frank
short term... Kjc
long term... Nocera
aviation... Frank kjc nocera
marine... Frank kjc nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi41 min 61°F 69°F1032.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi34 min NE 17 G 24 61°F 1034.4 hPa51°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi41 min ENE 11 G 14 62°F 70°F1033.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi69 min ENE 23 G 27 64°F 67°F6 ft1031.5 hPa (+1.3)58°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi74 min ENE 18 G 23 63°F 72°F3 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi46 min 67°F6 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi53 min NNE 14 G 18 60°F 64°F1033.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi53 min NE 19 G 23 58°F 68°F1034.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi65 minNE 12 G 24 mi63°F55°F78%1033.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi2.1 hrsNE 13 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F53°F70%1033 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi63 minNE 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1033.4 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi66 minNE 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast63°F52°F68%1033.6 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr43CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4NE7NE6NE6NE8NE7NE8NE8
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1 day agoN10N6N5N5NW5N6N8N6N6NE7NE6NE6NE5NE6NE7NE5NE6NE5NE5NE5NE5NE4NE5E4
2 days ago56S6S6S6S6S7S6S8S7SW8S8
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SW76NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.