Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

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Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday July 22, 2018 8:41 AM EDT (12:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 628 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of tstms this morning. Showers. Isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 628 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure continues to lift to the northwest today. A frontal boundary will remain west of the region through much of the week, while high pressure remains offshore. This will keep the waters under a prolonged period of southerly flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221154
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
754 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure with tropical moisture steering NW across the ne
conus with its attending warm front sweeping new england into
today. This setup will bring showers and thunderstorms with
torrential downpours and gusty winds. Bermuda high pressure then
builds west toward southern new england next week bringing
tropical humidity and warm temperatures. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be around most of the week, although a little
more difficult to come by on Tuesday. A cold front crosses new
england Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
8 am update...

* right now...

atmospheric river of tropical rains funneling into S new england.

Observations of 1-2" hr rainfall rates either derived via dual-
pol radar or from various networks, as 50 mph SE winds race roughly
2 kft agl. As such, flood advisories posted across the interior
while special marine warnings have been issued over the waters,
the latter of which has verified well from various ASOS reporting
brief wind gusts in excess of gale-force. The ribbon of rainfall
and associated moisture expected to evolve s-n over the e-half
of new england towards noon, the concern over the pvd-bos urban
corridor for flash flooding potential. Torrential rainfall,again,
the greatest threat with this system, the potential to dump
over any one area just given how rich and moist the atmosphere
is aloft, like a completely soaked sponge which if wrung out via
updraft motions, would definitely inundate any one particular
region. An eye on dual-pol kdp, looking for higher values that
are indicative of larger raindrops.

Effective helicity, especially within the 0-1 km layer, as mixed-
layer CAPE instability sneaks into s-shoreline new england per
spc mesoanalysis. An eye on the radar for any rotation, the
expectation of the threat diminishing through the morning given
subtle synoptic forcing, rising heights in association with a
building ridge to the e, however the threat of destabilization
to the w, scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with any
instability released within such a tropical soupy environment.

Some remnant shear, while torrential rains on the forefront of
the mind, can't rule out a gusty wind wet microburst threat.

* highlights...

- rain band with pockets of torrential rainfall isolated t'storms
- main concern: localized flash flooding, especially urban centers
- otherwise: low risk for a severe t'storm or two
- high surf dangerous rip currents along the S coast
* take-aways...

bands of showers embedded thunderstorms through this afternoon.

Torrential rainfall and localized urban flash flooding remains
the biggest concern, but the low risk continues for an isolated
severe thunderstorm or two with the potential of producing
damaging winds, not ruling out the very low threat of a brief
tornadic waterspout spin-up.

* overview...

anomalous precipitable water and low-level jet axes will focus S to
n across areas of S new england early this morning and much of the
day. A tropical environment any nudge upon which, whether low-level
convergent wind driven and or destabilizing, undoubtedly will yield
torrential rainfall and the threat of localized flash flooding. That
is our main concern given a forecast band of rain with pockets of
heavier rain, 1-2" hr rainfall rates, and embedded thunderstorms. A
deep s-n moist axis with a significantly deep warm column signaling
efficient rainfall processes, unclear exactly where this will setup
however concern across urban corridors given the potential of seeing
over 2-3 inches if not more in a short period of time. Uncertainty,
no flash flood watch will be hoisted with this event, handle threats
with short-fused advisory warning products. Watching closely any
training elements.

Otherwise, a low risk continues for an isolated severe thunderstorm
or two with the potential of producing damaging winds, as well as
the very low threat of a tornadic waterspout spin-up. High shear,
low instability environment as well as the potential for terrain-
induced circulations, while a very low probability, the threat is
there with any thunderstorms that will bear watching. Expect threats
to extend through today given potential daytime destabilization and
subtle synoptic forcing, noting that behind the warm front is a mid-
level dry slot with lower k-indices. Focus upon the s-n deep, moist
environment, conditionally unstable, where wet microbursts will be
possible in addition to heavy rain mixing down faster winds aloft to
the surface.

Lastly, wind and wave action associated with such an anomalous setup
a high surf advisory continues for s-coastal ocean exposed beaches,
cape and islands included, today. Persistent strong S winds with
gusts up around 30 mph yielding s-coastal 6 to 9 foot seas, there's
the potential for high surf dangerous rip currents on these ocean
exposed beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Unsettled, tropical environment continues, pushed W per a building
atlantic h5 ridge. Rising heights, subsidence and drier air rotate
clockwise round the ridge of high pressure into new england shunting
the deep tropically moist and anomalous low-level wind axes w, again
any nudge upon which should induce scattered shower thunderstorm
activity along with pockets of heavy rain. Downward trend indicative
in model forecast k indices. Localized flash flood threat continues
with concern for urban corridors. Otherwise muggy. Will continue to
experience oppressive humidity with 70+ dewpoints as temperatures
remain mild overnight, warming into the 80s Monday.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Big picture...

ridges over the west atlantic and western usa frame a deep trough
over the eastern usa. Upper flow is very meridional early to mid
week. The northern jet stream then nudges south late week, bringing
a more zonal component to the flow over the north-central and
northeast usa. This will eventually allow a cold front to sweep over
new england toward the end of the week.

Contour heights will be above normal through the period. Thermal
fields will be above normal through the period. This suggests warm
temperatures when there is any sunshine, with temperatures cooler
but still near normal where skies are cloudy.

Model mass fields are in good agreement through Tuesday, then the
ggem becomes an outlier while the GFS and ECMWF remain similar
through Friday, and only slightly diverge on Saturday. Forecast
confidence is high through most of the week and moderate-high for
Saturday.

Concerns...

drying period...

upper ridge builds west early in the week, reaching its farthest
extent west on Tuesday. Surface flow remains southerly through this
period, so no break in the sultry air. But the 2 inch-plus
precipitable water values shift west across the mid atlantic and ny
state while values over our area are around 1.5 inches... Still
moist. Rh cross sections show dry air will move in above 850 mb,
limiting the ability of convection to build deep. Lift will also be
minimal, especially in ri eastern ma. This may allow for some
sunshine, especially in eastern areas, and limit the development of
showers. Best chance for any showers would be in the ct valley and
areas west of there. The ridge moves back to the east Wednesday,
allowing the two-inch pw values and deep moisture back over new
england later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Tropical flow...

even with the atlantic ridge building west early week, the low level
flow remains out of the south and will maintain very humid
conditions with dew points expected to linger in the low to mid 70s.

Once the ridge shifts east, deep moisture returns... And the southwest
flow ahead of the canadian shortwave will continue to draw warm
very humid air into our area for Thursday.

Away from the suppressing effect of the ridge, and with CAPE of 1500
j kg moving in from ny, expect broader area of showers and scattered
thunder on Thursday.

Cold front Friday...

canadian shortwave will move across the great lakes later
Thursday Thursday night sweeping a cold front into the northeast on
Friday. By Friday afternoon much of southern new england is in the
right entrance region of the supporting upper jet. Lift is favored
in this airmass with CAPE of 1500-2000 j kg and mid-level lapse
rates of 6-6.5 c km. This should favor showers tstms along and ahead
of the cold front. But even after the front moves through, warm
humid weather will linger on Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

mostly ifr-lifr prevailing with respect to CIGS and vsbys. A band
of -ra with embedded ra +ra elements, lower risk tsra. Pushing into
e new england this morning, shifting back w, diminishing by afternoon
however sct activity may emerge with any available sunshine. Lower
confidence trends, may improve in some areas MVFR to low-endVFR
while some terminals remain in the soup. S winds prevailing,
strongest gusts along the s-shore upwards of 30 kts, can't rule
out 40 kt gusts with +ra. Llws for this morning over E new england,
roughly 40 kts 2 kft agl.

Tonight into Monday...

sct -ra ra elements, possible embedded +ra tsra. Continued MVFR-
lifr threats with respect to CIGS and vsbys. May see an improving
trend E to W especially on Monday, conditions lifting to low-end
vfr and -ra ra concluding. Greater focus of -ra and lower conditions
shifting towards the ct river valley.

Kbos terminal...

looking at roughly a 13-17z timeframe of worst conditions with
ra +ra elements, potential embedded tsra. Due to isolated to
scattered nature of tsra, will forego any mention in the TAF for now.

Kbdl terminal...

ra moving out, focus for afternoon with any partial clearing,
potential for CIGS to lift low-endVFR. With that, possibility
of sct ra +ra, perhaps tsra for the afternoon period with tempo
ifr-lifr impacts. Will amend TAF if so accordingly.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance shra,
isolated tsra.

Monday night: mainly ifr, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

anomalous S low level jet will allow seas to build across our
s waters to between 5 and 10 feet across our open waters today.

This a result of E SE gusts 20 to 30 kts. Already 7-8 foot seas
being reported S of W long island with such gusty winds.

Rain, heavy at times, with embedded thunderstorms through the
morning hours, continuing along a s-n band into afternoon
especially over the e-half of new england. Lower visibility in
addition to fog over the waters.

Sunday night into Monday...

atlantic high building back W overnight into Monday, wind gusts
should diminish slightly as drier weather builds in over the
waters from the e. This will allow conditions in the inner-
waters to subside, however seas will remain heightened over the
outer waters resulting in small crafts to continue.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Areas fog,
slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for maz020-
022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for anz230>234-251.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Monday for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi41 min 70°F 67°F1015.2 hPa (+1.8)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi46 min SE 20 G 23 71°F 1016.4 hPa69°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi41 min SE 8.9 G 15 71°F 69°F1015.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi51 min SSE 19 G 23 72°F 71°F7 ft1014.3 hPa (+2.1)71°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi56 min SE 18 G 21 73°F 3 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi58 min 70°F5 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi47 min SSE 15 G 25 71°F 68°F1016.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi41 min S 21 G 30 71°F 74°F1016.9 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi47 minVar 5 mi68°F68°F100%1015.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi45 minSE 148.00 miLight Rain71°F66°F87%1015.1 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi45 minSSE 126.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F66°F93%1016.7 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi48 minSSE 11 G 182.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist71°F71°F100%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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5
1 day ago43CalmCalm445544433CalmCalmCalmCalm3E3E3CalmCalmE33
2 days agoN7NE545S645S43S33333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:09 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.81.11.51.71.71.61.41.310.70.50.611.41.92.32.52.42.221.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:12 AM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:13 AM EDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:27 PM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:47 PM EDT     -2.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.5-1.6-0.40.91.82.221.50.5-0.8-1.9-2.4-2.3-1.6-0.60.71.82.42.41.91-0.4-1.8-2.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.