Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:45PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:09 PM EDT (16:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:27AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1117 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Tstms likely this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1117 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly move east across the area late tonight, but will linger across the eastern end of long island and southeast connecticut. The front will not totally clear the region until Saturday night. High pressure will then build in through the beginning of next week, followed by a midweek cold frontal passage.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 181540
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1140 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly move east across the area late tonight, but
will linger across the eastern end of long island and southeast
connecticut. The front will not totally clear the region until
Saturday night. High pressure will then build in through the
beginning of next week, followed by a midweek cold frontal passage.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will move east across
eastern long island and SE ct through 1 pm. Hourly rates in
excess of 1.5 inches per hour have caused flash flooding in
parts of suffolk county and widespread minor to locally moderate
flooding from the nj nyc metro area east this morning.

Satellite imagery shows a SW NE dry slot advecting NE from va md
across SE pa, that should advect NE across the lower hudson
valley by 18z.

This will increase sfc based and low lvl instability resulting
in the development of convection mainly aft 20z this afternoon
from SW to ne.

The highest chc for severe wx will be from nyc N and w, where
spc placed this area under a slight risk. The greatest threat
is for damaging wind gusts. Stay tuned.

Because precipitable water values remain high -- close to 2 to 2.2
inches, heavy rain causing mainly urban flooding will remain
possible.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches,
potentially becoming high this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
Models at times can struggle with the precipitation forecast
with the departure of large mid level ridges above 580dm. So,
forecast will adjust for this in situation where there is more
forcing and precip is too low and vice versa.

The upper level trough will be approaching the region tonight.

The height falls become more remarkable late tonight into
Saturday morning and this is when the trough moves eastward a
greater distance. The region will be getting closer to the right
entrance region of this jet. The trough amplifies and shortens
its wavelength during the day Saturday. 500mb heights lower
20-30 m from early morning until early evening. Vorticity still
increasing with height tonight and Sat looking at 925, 850, and
700mb levels.

Still have a threat of gusty winds and heavy rain with
thunderstorms tonight. High precipitable waters near 2 inches
still will be in place as will the vertical wind shear.

A cold front will continue to approach tonight. The cold front
moves into the region late tonight into Saturday but does not
totally clear the region until Saturday night.

However with aforementioned dynamics, pops still in place for
parts of the CWA during Sat evening with possibility for
isolated shower activity.

West to northwest flow behind the cold front later Saturday
night and continued ridging will promote mainly dry conditions.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Shortwave trough pivots northeast of the region on Sunday, with
generally zonal upper flow over the region for early to mid of next
week, between southern ridging and a closed low moving into hudson
bay.

At the surface, high pressure builds into the region Sunday, and
then gradually sinks south and east of the region Monday into
Tuesday. The result will be dry and seasonably warm conditions on
Sunday, giving way to increasing heat and humidity Mon into tue.

Perhaps some afternoon shower TSTM activity along a lee trough tue
afternoon depending on any energy sliding through the upper flow
aloft, but low predictability at this point.

Decent model agreement with shortwave energy digging into the great
lakes Tue into Tue night and then towards the NE us on wed. An
associated frontal system will bring the next chance for organized
shower and TSTM activity late Tue into wed.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
A cold front approaches late today.

Showers and thunderstorms have worked their way out of the city
and are across the eastern half of the terminals late this
morning. However, MVFR ifr ceilings continue in the wake. Some
improvement is likely this afternoon before another round of
showers and thunderstorms arrives around 21z. Thunderstorms are
likely this evening with the cold front approaching until about
01z. Gusty winds and heavy rain possible in any thunderstorm.

Southerly winds will increase this afternoon, mainly between 10
to 15 kts. Gusts to 25 kt possible across much of the region
this afternoon, but especially along the coast. Higher gusts
possible with any thunderstorm.

For tonight, fog stratus with MVFR or lower conds may linger
through the overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi52 min 73°F 70°F1014 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi52 min S 8 G 9.9 72°F 70°F1013.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi80 min 73°F 71°F3 ft1013.5 hPa (-0.8)73°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi52 min SSE 11 G 18 74°F 76°F1012.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi58 min SSE 7 G 8 74°F 75°F1011.5 hPa
44069 48 mi85 min SSW 19 G 21 76°F 78°F76°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
S5
S10
S10
S8
S10
S9
S7
S7
S6
S6
S3
G6
SW3
S1
E3
E4
S2
SE3
SE4
SE5
S8
S9
S10
G13
S7
G10
S7
G10
1 day
ago
N5
G10
N4
G8
N2
G5
N5
G8
NW3
G7
NW2
G5
N1
N2
N2
N2
N3
N3
N4
G8
N2
N2
N4
N4
G8
N5
G8
N6
NE2
G5
N4
N2
2 days
ago
S5
G9
S5
S5
S4
SW2
NW1
SW1
W1
G5
SW2
W2
--
--
N2
N1
N2
N3
N4
G7
N4
G8
N3

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi76 minS 7 mi73°F72°F96%1013.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi77 minSSE 63.00 miRain Fog/Mist74°F71°F91%1013.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi74 minS 106.00 miFog/Mist73°F70°F90%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hr34353--3SW3Calm4S33CalmCalm55S7S4S6S7S7S8S75
1 day agoW5W5W53S43SW4W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmN3N4NE3NE4NE5NE5NE7NE45NE43
2 days ago33444S33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmW4NW3CalmNW3CalmNW4NW6NW8NW6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Greenport
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:58 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.300.30.81.522.42.52.31.91.40.90.40.20.411.72.42.93.23.22.82.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-0.20.61.21.210.5-0.3-1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.20.71.41.71.61.20.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.