Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:11PM Sunday March 26, 2017 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 613 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of light rain early. Slight chance of light rain until late afternoon. Chance of light rain late. Patchy fog this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of light rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 613 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over new england will gradually slide east through the weekend...allowing a warm front to our south to approach the region Sunday night into Monday. A couple of weak frontal boundaries will be in the vicinity Monday night and Tuesday...followed by a cold front moving through during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260811
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
411 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over eastern canada and extending into
new england and the northeast will gradually slide east today. A
stationary front well to the southwest will approach as a warm
front tonight and move north Monday. Another frontal system
affects the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
builds to the west Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure
system approaches Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Surface high pressure was extending into the region from
southeastern canada with a northeast to east flow, with a cold
air damming situation as a stationary front remains from ohio
across west virginia and through northern virginia. Convergence
and weak thermal forcing has resulted in a band of light rain
from western upstate new york, and across northeastern new
jersey to western long island. Temperatures were above freezing
across the interior and do not expected freezing rain possible
that some higher elevations of western orange county new york
briefly have freezing rain with mesonet stations reporting
temperatures just above freezing.

Otherwise with the surface and upper ridge into much of the area
keeping the eastern CWA dry until late this morning with just
slight chance probabilities and then by late this afternoon, as
the ridge weakens, will have low chance probabilities across
the cwa.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday/
The closed and nearly cut off low that was over missouri will
continue to open and weaken as the shortwave gets picked up by a
weak southern stream flow, and the wave moves into the eastern
ridge. There remains some timing difference with the movement of
the warm front and low tonight into Monday. Also, with weak
forcing unsure how much precipitation will occur. So have
lowered probabilities into the likely category, with the higher
chance west and north late tonight into Monday.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
With the wave continuing to dampen late Monday into Monday night
with weak ridging ahead of the next shortwave, there may be a
break in the precipitation. However, with the uncertainty, and
to keep continuity have continued with slight chance
probabilities Monday night.

Yet another shortwave approaches in the weak southern stream as
this wave also dampens as wave approaches the mid atlantic.

There are timing differences and whether or not the shortwave
will phase with a digging northern stream shortwave Tuesday.

With uncertainties will keep probabilities at low chance Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with high pressure building
in. Cold air advection appears to be delayed enough to the point
where highs on Wednesday end up above normal, then near-normal for
Thursday. Friday could be completely dry as well, but perhaps some
rainfall sneaks into the western zones by the end of the day. High
temps again near normal. Global models then disagree with the track
of an area of low pressure that could bring rainfall on Saturday.

Have capped pops at 40% for now.

Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/
As a cold front settles south across the mid atlantic states
overnight, high pressure will build southward across the area
with a push of drier air.

Much of the area will experience MVFR conditions for a time
overnight withVFR conditions working in from the ne. Amendments
area likely for the timing of the improvement. If conditions
can clear overnight there is low potential for a brief period of
fog from 09-12z.

Flight cat Sunday morning uncertain. Started offVFR, then lowered
to MVFR after about 13z-14z with light rain moving in well in
advance of the warm front. Dry air through may win out, delaying the
onset of the MVFR CIGS and light rain until the afternoon/evening,
especially east of the nyc terminals.

N-ne winds around 10 kt will gradually pick up overnight, then the
direction becomes more easterly after daybreak, with a few gusts g15-
20kt possible in the afternoon at the coastal/nyc metro terminals.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night Lowering to ifr/lifr with light rain/drizzle/fog
ahead of an approaching warm front.

Monday Ifr/lifr to start. Conds could improve to MVFR orVFR by
late morning or afternoon if the warm front moves through.

Monday night-tue night Ifr likely, lifr possible with low
clouds/fog.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt, possibly stronger.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Northeast flow strengthens today between high pressure to the north
and the cold front to the south/low pressure to the west. Marginal
sca gusts are possible on the ocean waters through tonight. The
resultant easterly fetch should allow for ocean seas to build to 4
to 6 ft. Winds are expected to weaken and veer SE on Monday as a
warm front works into the waters... But e/se swells will likely keep
seas at SCA levels through the evening.

Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are expected across all waters briefly
on Tuesday before gradually building through the evening in
strengthening southerly flow ahead of a low pressure approaching
from the west. Strong west-northwesterly flow with gusts to 25 kt
will develop on Wednesday as a cold front passes which will
initially allow seas to stay elevated at SCA levels before gradually
shifting east of the ocean waters. Stronger winds may persist into
Thursday before weakening by late week as high pressure briefly
builds over the area.

Hydrology
One quarter of an inch to one half an inch of rainfall is
possible today through Tuesday night.

No hydrologic issues are anticipated through Tuesday.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Met
near term... Met
short term... Met
long term... Jc/met
aviation... Md
marine... Md
hydrology... Met


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi42 min ENE 14 G 16 37°F 1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi42 min 37°F 38°F1031.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi27 min NE 5.1 G 7 34°F 29°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi42 min N 2.9 G 8.9 33°F 40°F1031.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi82 min 39°F 43°F3 ft1030.6 hPa (+0.4)36°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi42 min NE 8.9 G 13 35°F 39°F1031.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi42 min NE 7 G 9.9 36°F 1030.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi78 minNE 6 mi37°F33°F86%1031.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi19 minNE 810.00 miOvercast37°F32°F82%1031.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi76 minN 410.00 miFair30°F28°F92%1031.4 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW5NW5NE6NE8E6E7E7E7NE7
G17
4NE6NE6NE5NE6NE5NE3NE5NE5NE6NE6NE6NE6NE8
1 day ago5S8S11
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2 days agoNW10NW11
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W10NW10NW8NW6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
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Sun -- 03:47 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:59 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.10.60.1-00.30.91.62.22.52.72.521.40.70.2-0.200.61.422.52.72.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:01 PM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.10.81.51.61.40.8-0.2-1-1.5-1.8-1.5-1.1-0.50.41.31.61.510.2-0.8-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.