Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:29PM Monday June 26, 2017 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 10:38PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1113 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers at night.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft or less. Scattered tstms at night. Scattered showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1113 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure moves offshore this afternoon. Another cold front moves through on Tuesday. Meanwhile strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261522
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1122 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure moves offshore this afternoon. Another cold
front moves across Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure
builds to the south Wednesday. A warm front crosses the region
late Thursday, with warm, humid and unsettled weather Friday
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Made some minor adjustments to forecast database based on
latest conditions.

On the large scale, a longwave trough remains west of the region
today. A subtle shortwave embedded within this longwave trough
with some slight height falls is expected by mid to late this
afternoon. This in combination with daytime instability allows
for a low potential for a shower or thunderstorm. This will be
confined to mainly north and west of nyc. At the surface, a cold
front will be moving across the region and weakening. Today's
highs were a combination of gmos and ecs, mid 70s to low 80s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The front will become weaker with time. Instability will become
more elevated but a lack of a trigger will keep mainly dry
conditions tonight. Lows tonight were a blend of gmos and mav,
low 50s to low 60s.

For Tuesday, starting in the morning, there will be abundant
clouds. The height falls will be accompanied by greater value of
positive vorticity advection during the day. The longwave
trough still is west of the region tonight into Tuesday but on
Tuesday the amplitude of this shortwave is higher. There
wavelength of the shortwave is getting less, indicating a
sharper overall large scale trough. The chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be higher than those of the previous day.

Another cold front moves across Tuesday. Temperatures were a
combination of gmos and ecs, mid 70s to near 80.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Upper trough passes Tuesday evening, with weak ridge building
Wednesday. Upper flow flattens late in the week, becoming SW ahead
of midwest trough over the weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure builds Tuesday night, passing to the south
Wednesday. Low pressure passes across the great lakes region
Thursday, with warm front passing across the area by that time.

Thereafter, frontal boundary remains just to the north of the area
as low pressure rides along it, also passing north. Then next low
approaches ahead of upstream trough, passing north for the
latter portion of the weekend. Subtle placement timing differences
noted in medium range guidance.

In general, unsettled weather looks likely from late Thursday,
through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected, with coverage higher during the daytime each day.

Instability appears to be weak Thursday, but builds thereafter per
operational gfs. Li's as low as -5 c with long narrow cape's and
increasing pwat's, over 2 inches by Saturday, in a unidirectional
flow supports potential for flash flooding - mainly in urban areas.

Low humidity and below normal temperatures expected Wednesday, then
temperatures rebound to near normal Thursday, and above normal late
in the week into the weekend. However, do not foresee heat issues at
this time.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Vfr through the TAF period with high pressure south and east of
the terminals.

Winds will gradually back to the SW into this afternoon with
speeds increasing to around 10 kt. Afternoon sea breeze
development shifts winds to the south at coastal terminals, 10
to 15 kt. Winds will gradually diminish overnight.

There is a low chance for a shower or storm NW of nyc metro
terminals this afternoon evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi38 min 70°F 66°F1016.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi26 min WSW 9.9 G 11 67°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.0)58°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi38 min SW 9.9 G 14 76°F 63°F1015.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi36 min 67°F 66°F2 ft1017.2 hPa (+0.0)60°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi38 min SW 11 G 15 68°F 69°F1016.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi38 min S 8.9 G 15 71°F 1015.4 hPa
44069 48 mi56 min SW 14 G 18 70°F 76°F60°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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SW10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi32 minSSW 5 mi75°F57°F54%1016.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi93 minVar 3 miPartly Cloudy75°F46°F36%1017.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi90 minSW 1010.00 miFair72°F53°F52%1016.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi31 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F57°F61%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S7S75SW6SW53SW534SW8W7--N6NW4CalmCalmW4W4NW4--5W6S5
1 day agoW11
G18
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W7W7W8W6W4SW5SW4SW3SW5SW5NW6NW4W3NW3CalmCalmW4NW5W5W4----
2 days agoSW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.43.32.92.21.40.6-0.1-0.4-0.10.61.52.22.62.82.62.11.50.90.300.20.91.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:58 PM EDT     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:01 PM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-1.4-2-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.30.81.51.61.40.7-0.2-1-1.6-1.9-1.6-1-0.30.71.61.91.81.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.