Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:55PM Sunday January 21, 2018 1:22 PM EST (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 936 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Today..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain with patchy drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 936 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will move east through the region today. A warm front will approach the region tonight, slowly working north through the region late Monday into Monday night. A strong frontal system will cross the region on Tuesday, with high pressure returning for the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211752
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1252 pm est Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will move east through the region today. A
warm front will approach the region tonight, slowly working
north through the region late Monday into Monday night. A strong
frontal system will cross the region on Tuesday, with high
pressure returning for the remainder of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Updated the forecast mostly for sky cover and high temps. Broken
to overcast cirrus will exit east this afternoon, meanwhile
lower stratus will slowly shift in from the west late in the
day, reaching some of the western zones. High temps were bumped
up a couple of degrees for most spots outside of the lower
hudson valley and adjacent areas. Highs will average 10-15
degrees above normal for most spots.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Models in good agreement with the amplifying trough over the sw
states interacting with subtropical jet energy today. The
resultant deep closed upper low is then expected to track ne
across the central plains and mid mississippi valley tonight
through mon. A large resultant low pressure system will take
similar track through the central us.

Meanwhile the local region will remain under slight ridging, with
pac polar jet confluence well to the north. At the surface, weak
high pressure moves offshore tonight, with a warm front
developing to the south of the region. Stratus and light
precip drizzle appears likely to work into the region tonight
into Monday morning with strong theta-e advection ahead of the
approaching central us system. Models have trended slightly
warmer with low-level temps tonight into Monday, with polar air
staying locked across northern new england. This has reduced
the threat for widespread freezing temps and icing across the
interior, but still potential for interior valley areas of the
lower hudson valley and southern ct to have temps hang around
freezing, resulting in a localized glaze of icing threat.

Ct river valley is most vulnerable.

On Monday, the warm front will likely have trouble moving north
through the region until the LLJ works into the region Monday night.

This based on position of the surface low well west of the
appalachians on Monday and high-res models signaling a weak
cold air damming signal from high pressure nosing down the
coastal plain from SE canada. This will spell chilly conditions
with stratus, drizzle, and light rain showers continuing mon
into Mon eve. Patchy freezing rain drizzle may linger across
interior through Monday morning, particularly in the ct river
valley due to cold air drainage. Highs on Monday will likely
hold in the upper 30s interior to lower 40s city coast.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Models continue in strong agreement with the closed upper low
tracking through the great lakes Monday night into Tuesday
before beginning to phase with northern stream energy as it
swings into the NE us Tuesday night. At the surface, primary low
pressure tracks through the great lakes Monday night into
Tuesday, while secondary low pressure develops in vicinity of
the region Tuesday and lifts into new england Tuesday night.

Model-to-model and run-to-run consistency continues for a quick
moving moderate to heavy rain event for late Monday night into
Tuesday, in response to strong deep layered lift (region under
of nose of 65-70 kt LLJ and left front quad of a 125+ kt jet
streak in difluent upper flow) of a positive 2-3 std above
normal pwat moisture plume over the region, focused ahead of the
cold front surface wave. Embedded thunder possible as well with
the strong forcing and weak elevated instability. Based on
sref GEFS ensemble model spread, a general 1 2 to 1 inches of
rain is likely across the region late tonight through Tuesday,
with locally 1 to 2 inches. Highest rain amounts will likely be
in path of surface wave and across interior hills due to
orographic enhancement.

Despite a low level inversion, a period of 30 to 40 mph gusts
appears likely for LI SE ct Tue morn aft ahead of cold front as
a 60-70 kt 950mb LLJ works over this region, with a low prob
for a few gusts of 40 to 50 mph being mixed down with
convection heavy rain.

The frontal system pushes through by late Tuesday with drying
conditions Tuesday evening. A breezy NW flow will usher in a
cold and dry airmass for mid to late week, with canadian high
pressure building in for the late week and east for the
weekend.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
High pressure remains south of the region tonight. Tonight, a
warm front approaches from the south.VFR conditions will
gradually lower to MVFR tonight with the approach of the warm
front. Ifr conditions will likely develop Monday morning as the
warm front stalls across the area. Conditions are expected to
remain ifr or less through the day Monday. There may be some
improvement very late in the 30 hours tafs.

Light w-sw winds this afternoon. Winds will then become light
and variable tonight as the warm front approaches, remaining
light and at times variable through Monday afternoon.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday MVFR ifr likely. Chance of -ra.

Tuesday Ifr lifr in -ra. Llws. S winds g25kt morning, wsw
winds g30-35kt possible near the coast in the afternoon.

Wednesday Vfr. Wnw g20-25kt.

Thursday Vfr. NW winds g20kt.

Friday Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain tranquil through today as weak high
pressure shifts northeastward. A warm front then approaches tonight
and slowly moves through Monday, keeping winds light and seas
tranquil. As the warm front moves through Monday night into Tuesday,
southerly flow will rapidly strengthen, with at least sca-level
winds on the waters. A strong low-level jet will lead to the
possibility of at least isolated gale-force winds on Tuesday,
despite an inversion that may hinder the strongest winds from
reaching the waters. Seas will rapidly build in response to the
strengthened flow.

Winds may then briefly decrease Tuesday evening as the cold front
moves through, before strengthening into Tuesday night in strong
cold advection. Expect sca-level gusts Tuesday night into Thursday,
with seas remaining elevated on the ocean waters. High pressure then
begins to build across the area for the late week, with winds
decreasing and seas gradually subsiding.

Hydrology
A frontal system passing through late tonight through Tuesday
is likely to produce a widespread 1 2 to 1 inch of rain, with
locally 1 to 2 inches possible. No significant hydrologic issues
are anticipated at this time.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nv
near term... Jc nv
short term... Nv
long term... Nv
aviation... Bc md
marine... Md
hydrology... Nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi53 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 37°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi53 min 39°F 36°F1020.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 1024.8 hPa31°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi53 min N 1 G 2.9 46°F 37°F1020.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 6 37°F 35°F1021 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi53 min SSW 6 G 8.9 41°F 35°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi29 minW 5 mi44°F30°F60%1020.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi30 minNNE 710.00 miFair47°F28°F48%1021 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair49°F30°F48%1019.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi28 minNW 710.00 miFair48°F30°F50%1020 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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W9W7W8SW3W7W6------------W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5NW5W5W5
1 day agoW9
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W5SW5W4CalmSW5SW5SW6SW9
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2 days agoNW11N9
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NW11NW8NW10N10N10NW11NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:13 PM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:32 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.22.11.71.20.70.40.20.30.81.41.92.22.32.21.91.30.80.3000.30.91.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:57 AM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:03 AM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:22 PM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:33 PM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.20.411.41.20.80.2-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.5-0.10.61.21.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.