Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:21 AM EDT (06:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 3:51AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1219 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am this morning to noon edt today...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain, then rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1219 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast toward the area today, then pass over the area tonight, with a trough of low pressure then crossing the area on Thursday. Weak high pressure will briefly build in Thursday night, then give way to another coastal low impacting the area Friday and Friday night. A cold front will move through Saturday and Saturday night, followed by high pressure building over the area Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250521
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
121 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast
toward the area today, then pass over the area tonight, with a
trough of low pressure then crossing the area on Thursday. Weak
high pressure will briefly build in Thursday night, then give
way to another coastal low impacting the area Friday and Friday
night. A cold front will move through Saturday and Saturday
night, followed by high pressure building over the area from
Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Steady rains moving across western locations and will track
to the NE early this morning. The intensity should increase
from light to moderate as well from SW to NE over the area.

Low temps are a blend of GFS nam MOS and 2m raw temps, with
lower 50s in nyc metro and western long island, and mid upper
40s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Combo of a decent shot of atlantic inflow and elevated
instability ahead of the approaching surface low will lead to
rain, heavy at times, along with chance of thunder as tt
increases to near 50 and showalter indices decrease to near of
below 0c. This area should lift NE and off the eastern new
england coast Wed night, leaving the area in a col for most of
the night with light rain and patchy fog developing. Nwp
guidance shows some phasing of northern southern branches of the
jet stream late Wed night, and as this takes place the southern
stream low and mid level shortwave trough should pass through
late Wed night, along with a cold frontal passage associated with
the northern branch of the jet stream and a surface low well to
our north. Elevated convection could be reinvigorated by this
cold front, and so have kept slight chance mention of thunder in
the forecast for Wed night.

Temps will be below seasonal norms but certainly not unusual for
a springtime rain event, with not much diurnal changes. Highs
wed will be in the 50s, and lows Wed night in the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
During the Thursday through Saturday time frame, features to watch
include departing shortwave over the northeast, southern stream
shortwave traversing across the southeast states ahead of vigorous
northern stream shortwave that moves out of the upper midwest toward
the east coast by Saturday.

Any lingering rain should end early Thu morning with weak
ridging and dry weather returning through Thu night. Meanwhile,
the aforementioned southern stream shortwave will lift
northeast as the downstream trough amplifies, with deep SW flow
setting up. There are some differences aloft, the american
models track the shortwave further west than the ec cmc ukmet,
leading to higher rain amounts on fri. Will need to fine tune
this in the coming days, but for now have increased chc pops a
bit.

During the Saturday night through Monday timeframe, upper
trough pushes east, and there is the potential for additional
showers associated with a weak cold front late Saturday into
Saturday night, although probabilities do not appear to be high
at this time. Greater likelihood would be NW of the area as
trough closes off north of the great lakes region.

Upper trough lingers Sunday but gives way to building ridge as sfc
high builds by Monday.

Temperatures remain right around seasonal norms, with Sunday perhaps
a few degrees cooler behind the cold front. Temperatures warm early
next week.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight into
Wednesday, and then moves overhead Wednesday night.

MVFR conditions continuing to lower to ifr overnight, with
moderate to heavy rain for the morning push. Isolated tstms
possible Wed morning into early afternoon but confidence remains
low, so have kept out of the tafs. Potential for lifr or lower
conds in stratus fog for evening push.

E winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt for coastal
terminals Wed morning. Winds subside in the early afternoon,
becoming light and variable for evening push.

Llws possible with SE winds at 40-45 kt at 2 kft.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night Lifr or lower in stratus fog possible for
evening push, gradual improvement toVFR late Wed night into
early Thu morning.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday-Saturday Vfr. A chance of showers with areas of MVFR
conditions.

Sunday Vfr. W wind 10-15kt, g20-25kt.

Marine
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

With the continuance of onshore flow, ocean seas continue to
build to 4-6 ft. Then as the pressure gradient tightens ahead
of the approaching sfc low, expect wind gusts gusts of 25-30 kt
mainly during the first half of the day. Seas on the ocean
waters should remain AOA 5 ft into Sat before subsiding from w
to E as the pressure gradient weakens.

Hydrology
A widespread 1.00-1.50" of rain is likely today. Heavy rain at
times could cause minor urban and poor drainage flooding,
especially if the higher end of the expected rainfall range is
realized. Expecting the bulk of the rain to fall this morning,
perhaps lingering into late afternoon across SE ct.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to noon edt today
for anz330-335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Goodman 24
near term... Goodman maloit pw
short term... Goodman
long term... 24
aviation... CB nv
marine... Goodman 24 maloit
hydrology... Goodman 24
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi37 min ENE 9.7 G 12 47°F 1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi52 min 48°F 45°F1021.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi42 min E 17 G 19 49°F 44°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi52 min ESE 4.1 G 8.9 52°F 48°F1021.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi92 min SE 16 G 18 48°F 45°F3 ft1021.7 hPa (-2.9)47°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi52 min E 5.1 G 8 53°F 51°F1021.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi52 min E 5.1 G 12 50°F 47°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N2

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi28 minVar 6 mi52°F46°F80%1021.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi29 minE 910.00 miOvercast51°F46°F83%1020.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi26 minE 1210.00 miFair51°F46°F86%1021.3 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi27 minE 4 G 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F44°F77%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmSE4S45S6666645SE764SE7SE8
G15
E7
G14
1 day agoW4NW3CalmCalmNE3NE3NE5NE7NE7NE8NE75S8S545S6S5S4S5333Calm
2 days agoW4CalmCalmCalmN4NW4NW5NW6NW7W55W7S7SW8
G14
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G15
SW7SW7SW8W5W4W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:30 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:42 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.30.81.41.92.32.62.62.31.91.40.70.100.411.62.22.62.72.52.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:04 AM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:24 AM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:54 PM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:50 PM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.61.21.41.30.90.1-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.800.91.31.41.20.6-0.2-0.9-1.5-1.6-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.