Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dering Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:44PM Saturday August 19, 2017 1:38 AM EDT (05:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:31AMMoonset 6:17PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 932 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms late this evening and early morning, then chance of showers late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 932 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move slowly east across the area late tonight, then stall just east of long island on Saturday. High pressure will follow Saturday night through Tuesday. A cold front will pass across the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dering Harbor, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.34     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190300
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1100 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move slowly east across the area late tonight,
then stall just east of long island on Saturday. High pressure
will follow Saturday night through Tuesday. A cold front will
pass across the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Main update this evening to cancel the flash flood and severe
thunderstorm watches, as convection is rapidly diminishing in
intensity. A few spotty convective showers and stratiform
precipitation remain, but should pose little threat for the
remainder of the evening.

Leftover showers and tstms will end with the passage of the cold
front between 06z and 12z overnight. With light winds forecast
during this time, areas of fog will develop, possibly dense
across long island and southern ct where significant rainfall
fell earlier in the day.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
With a digging upstream trough approaching Saturday, the cold
front may not make it too far off the long island coast. In
fact, it's possible that it might retrograde a bit until the
passage of this trough Saturday night.

Dryer air will advect east across the area Saturday night as
high pressure advects east toward the area.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A broad area of high pres will build in Sun and mon. This will
produce seasonable temps and mostly clear skies. A thermal ridge
will build into the region Tue into wed, producing a mini heat
wave. Some spots, particularly across nern nj, may hit the 2 day
heat advy criteria. As subtropical moisture becomes entrained
in the flow, an increase in high clouds can be expected by wed.

The cold frontal timing has slowed slightly from the previous
12z model suite, so right now the timing is for the late aftn
and eve. Although the best chance for tstms will be with the
fropa wed, there will be chances prior, albeit lower, due to the
unstable airmass and onset of lowering heights. Because of the
progged position of the front and tendency of the guidance to
smooth out the temp gradient, highs were manually raised on wed.

A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week. The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
A cold front will pass through the area late tonight, then stall
nearby on Saturday.

Cold front in eastern pa is expected to push through the metro
terminals between 08z and 12z. There could be an isold shower
accompanying its passage but coverage too limited to include in
forecast. Generally expect MVFR to locally ifr to return to the
terminals by 05z and remain until the winds shift to the W nw
late tonight. Timing in tafs could be + - 1-2 hours.VFR then
returns W to E early Sat morning. Seabreezes expected at coastal
terminal during the aftn.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night-Monday Vfr.

Tuesday Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible with
MVFR or lower conditions,otherwiseVFR.

Wednesday Scattered showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible. Gusty southwest wind to 20 kt.

Marine
A small craft advisory SCA remains in effect across the atlantic
ocean coastal waters through tonight as a cold front approaches.

Heavy showers and tstms are likely. Areas of dense fog are
possible until sunrise.

Weather conditions improve with the passage of a cold front
Saturday morning as winds and seas fall below SCA levels.

Winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold frontal passage late
Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas on the ocean may linger AOA 5 ft Wed ngt
behind the front. Winds and seas thereafter are progged to remain
blw SCA lvls.

Hydrology
A few spotty showers are possible tonight ahead of a cold front
but are not expected to pose a risk of flash flooding.

Impacts from potential showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday are uncertain at this point.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz350-353-
355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi50 min 75°F 70°F1009 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi50 min SSW 7 G 8.9 75°F 71°F1008.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi108 min 74°F 71°F5 ft1009.9 hPa (-0.5)74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi50 min SW 6 G 7 75°F 76°F1008.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi56 min SW 4.1 G 6 74°F 75°F1008.1 hPa
44069 47 mi83 min W 16 G 18 77°F 78°F77°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi45 minSW 73.00 miFog/Mist76°F73°F94%1009.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi44 minSSW 8 G 16 mi75°F75°F100%1009 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi43 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F73°F100%1009.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT24 mi42 minSW 66.00 miFog/Mist74°F72°F94%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm55S7S4S6S7S7S8S75S7S76S66S565S6S6S86
1 day agoCalmN3N4NE3NE4NE5NE5NE7NE45NE4334353--3SW3Calm4S33
2 days ago--CalmW4NW3CalmNW3CalmNW4NW6NW8NW6W5W5W5W53S43SW4W3W3W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:50 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:59 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.80.2-00.30.91.522.42.62.421.40.90.40.10.411.72.433.23.22.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:09 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-0.9-0.20.71.31.41.20.5-0.4-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.20.71.61.81.71.20.2-0.7-1.4-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.