Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dering Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:23PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:11 AM EST (09:11 UTC) Moonrise 1:25AMMoonset 2:01PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 329 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 329 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure builds briefly across the area waters. Low pressure passes across the great lakes tonight, while an associated warm front lifts through the area waters Tuesday morning, followed by a strong trailing cold front in the afternoon. High pressure will slowly return through Thursday. Low pressure passes off the coast on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dering Harbor, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.34     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 110554
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1254 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure trough will pass through late tonight, followed by
building high pressure on Monday. Low pressure will then pass
across the great lakes Monday night, while an associated warm
front lifts through the waters Tuesday morning, followed by a
strong trailing cold front in the afternoon. Intensifying low
pressure will move from the new england coast into the canadian
maritimes from Tuesday night into Wednesday night, then slowly
loosen its grip on the area on Thursday as weak high pressure
slides across. An alberta clipper low will pass to the south on
Thursday, then another low will develop just off the coast late
Friday into Friday night.

Near term until 6 am this morning
A shortwave and upper trough axis will approach from the west
overnight, with a low pressure trough at the surface. The best
combination of lift and moisture arrive after midnight with
isolated to scattered snow showers. A dusting is possible. Low
temps will be around 30 in nyc and the adjacent suburbs, with
20s for the rest of the area.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
High pressure will briefly build in behind the departing trough
Monday morning, with a lingering snow shower still possible
mainly east of the city. Skies will start off partly to mostly
sunny, then higher level clouds will begin to increase in the
afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.

Low pressure moves across the great lakes Monday night. An
associated warm front approaches us with increasing chances of
precip late at night, more likely NW of the city. A digging
upper trough and the low center then approach us during Tuesday.

Associated deeper moisture and lift bring then likelihood of
precip across the most of the rest of the area during the
morning. The low passes us to the north before exiting during
the afternoon, with maybe a secondary low center moving through.

Expect precip chances to diminish in the afternoon with the
best lift and moisture exiting. A cold front then follows
shortly thereafter, so precip chances will continue through the
day.

Warm advection ahead of the main portion of the storm will make this
a mixed precip event. Primarily rain is expected for the city,
adjacent suburbs and coastal section, although some snow can mix in
at first. Farther inland, snow or a snow rain mix changes over to
rain by noon on Tuesday. Only perhaps the elevated sections of
western orange county could see an all snow event. Snow
accumulations expected to be 1 or 2 inches for the northern
suburbs, with perhaps 3 inches in some spots across orange
county. Less than an inch is expected anywhere else where snow
manages to accumulate. Highs in the 40s expected for most
spots on Tuesday, with even some 50 degree readings for
long island.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
At the start of the period, blustery and cold weather expected from
Tuesday night into Thursday as intensifying surface low pressure
moves from the eastern new england coast up into the maritimes. The
parent upper low trough will be closing off and becoming negatively
tilted during this time, and a strong vort MAX rotating around the
upper low may help spark a few snow showers late Tue night into wed
morning, especially out east. Blustery conditions expected as the
pressure gradient tightens up on the back side of the low, with
sustained winds 25-35 mph and gusts 45-50 mph possible Wed into wed
night. With temps falling to the teens and lower 20s Wed night, wind
chills should fall to 0 to 5 below well inland, and to the single
digits in nyc metro and along the coast. High temps both Wed thu
should range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Ecmwf has been more consistent than the GFS in the longer term
beyond Wed night and was followed for the most part. A weak alberta
clipper low should pass just south on Thu as an associated mid level
impulse passes just south, then another low should develop close by
late Friday as a more significant negatively-tilted upper trough
swings through, that could bring a period of light snow fri
afternoon evening.

Upper level flow after passage of the upper trough on Friday should
become zonal, with moderating temps, rising to the upper 30s lower
40s on sat, and into the 40s on Sunday. A surface low passing well
to the north may manage to produce a few sprinkles showers of snow
or rain late Sat night into Sunday in the low level warm advection
to its southeast.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
A cold front will pass today.

Vfr through about 8z, then ceilings drop to around 3000 ft with
snow showers in the area early this morning. Little or no
runway accumulation, although visibility could be briefly
reduced to MVFR or lower. Ceilings improve toVFR after 15z,
withVFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

Generally westerly winds through the TAF period. Direction will
be just south of west until the frontal passage, then will
become just north of west. Occasional gusts early this morning,
then more frequent gusts to 20 kt today. Gusts will end after
23z.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Thursday
Late Monday night-Tuesday MVFR or lower possible with a wintry
mix to rain at northern terminals and rain at southern terminals.

Conditions improve toVFR Tuesday afternoon. Se-sw winds g15-25kt
possible.

Tuesday night-Wednesday MainlyVFR, with a chance of MVFR in snow
showers. W-nw winds g20-35kt probable.

Wednesday night-Thursday night Vfr. W-sw winds g15-25kt possible.

Friday MVFR possible with snow. W-nw winds g15-20kt possible.

Marine
Sca conditions expected on the ocean waters through Monday with
winds and seas meeting criteria. Marginal SCA conditions
expected on the eastern sound bays. Winds and seas should fall
below criteria Monday night, then increase during Tuesday, with
sca conds becoming likely on some of the waters.

As intensifying low pressure pulls away, gales should develop on
the ocean Tue night, with SCA conds continuing on the remaining
waters. NW gales expected on all waters Wed night into Thu with
a tight pressure gradient and strong cold air advection. Sca
conds may linger into thu, then quiet conditions expected thu
night into fri, though winds and seas in westerly flow after the
passage of a weak low Fri night could flirt once again with sca
levels.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time. See our headline news on
the web at: http: weather.Gov nyc
the riverhead NOAA weather radio station wxm-80 (162.475 mhz)
is currently out of service. NWS technicians are working with
verizon to restore service. An estimated time of return to
service is not currently known.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz350-
353-355.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz330-340.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Jmc jc goodman
short term... Jc
long term... Goodman
aviation... Bc jmc
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi57 min W 19 G 25 39°F 4 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi42 min 38°F 47°F1014.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi27 min W 15 G 19 37°F 1011.2 hPa21°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi42 min W 6 G 11 35°F 52°F1014.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi42 min W 7 G 8.9 35°F 46°F1015 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi42 min WSW 2.9 G 6 34°F 46°F1014.5 hPa
44069 47 mi42 min W 14 G 18 38°F 45°F26°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi19 minW 510.00 miOvercast34°F21°F61%1015.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi18 minW 10 G 18 mi39°F24°F55%1015 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi17 minW 410.00 miFair34°F21°F60%1014.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT24 mi16 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast36°F19°F52%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW10
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1 day ago----------NE8N10N9N10
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N9N8N11NW10NW6NW5NW7
2 days agoW10
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W7NW56W4W5W7W6W75W6W4CalmCalmCalmW3W5--------------

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:01 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:01 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:24 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.522.42.52.42.11.71.10.50.20.40.71.21.622.22.221.61.10.60.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:35 AM EST     1.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:54 PM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:01 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:09 PM EST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.41.10.4-0.3-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.20.61.11.21.10.6-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.